2020 Mom's Basement Stakes

[rakish]

Year 7 of Mom's Basement Stakes, my draft contest. The rules are pretty simple, you get the highest player on your draft board when the team we are drafting against picks, goalies are fine, but I don't draft them. I normally use Buffalo's picks, unless it's totally obvious who they will take (like Eichel), then I try another team. The valuation of post-draft players isn't as sophisticated as it is with 17 year olds, but in a few years, they sort of works itself out. I had a post at hall of fame boards for the 2018 draft, I can't find it, but you'll find many of your selections when we get to 2018 below.

If you want to enter the 2020 version, leave your draft list below. We will use Buffalo's pick unless they trade out. If they do, we'll reconsider. You generally need about 50 picks. If you want to podcast, talk about the 2020 draft, a particular pick, or anything else, just message me. I talk with people from sabrespace occasionally. The latest was with liger talking about pick 8.

Let's take a quick look at the history of my draft contest. The ranking is by forward or defensemen, so in my 2014 picks, Point had a 2019 year that was 3rd among forwards, Mayo was 37th among defensemen, and Bristed was selected as an overager, so he is ranked 40th against the players mostly chosen from the previous draft. Engvall played on 2 teams (Maple Leafs and Marlies, and ranked 32 in one and 35th in the other). Links to my dated lists are at bottom, sabrespace seems to have dead links, so the first 3 years have disappeared. Oh, well, I didn't choose that well anyway.

2014

There were 4 contestants, me, Tim Murray, Craig Button, and The Hockey News
Me: Point(3rd among forwards in 2019),Reinhart(6),Barbashev(27),Engvall(32,35),Mayo,Bristed, Glover(54,55), Holmstrom(70)
The Hockey News: McKeown(13),Adam Ollas Mattsson(22), Barbashev(27), Dougherty(31), Middleton(33), Mayo(37),Bennett(40),Martin(54,55),Holmstrom(70)
Button: Point(3),Reinhart(6),Gavfrikov(6),Kase(19),Emil Johansson(49), Martin(54,55), Watson(82), Karlsson(123)
Murray: Reinhart(6),Olofsson(14),Jonas Johansson, Lemieux(30), Martin(54,55), Willman(72,74), Cornel(77), Brown(109,120),Karabacek(121)

So first thing to note, it's better to have drafted the 30th best forward (like Engval,Barbashev,Lemieux), than the 30th best defenseman. I don't rank goaltenders, and Jonas Johansson is still in the mix in Buffalo.
2014 looks like a Craig Button win at this point, drafting the best player in Point and the best
NHL regulars. I also have Point and 4 regulars this year, but I would prefer Gavrikov and
Kase to Barbashev and Engvall. Murray has closed the gap with the emergence of Olofsson, and currently
has 3 NHL regulars.

2015

We moved to Winnipeg, as everyone was going to take Eichel. There were 6 contestants.

Winnipeg:Connor(3),Niku(6,15),Roslovic(22),Harkins(27,41),Appleton(59),Spacek(75),Gennero(107),Erik Foley (injured)
Me: Andersson(7),Vainio(9),Harkins(27,41),Abols(47),Korshkov(60),Ahl(80)
Hockey News: Connor(3),Merkley(49,53),Foley (injured),N Roy(29,35), Fitzgerald(36), Korostelev(76), Noel(134)
Button: Connor(3),Gavrikov(6),Merkley(49,53),Foley (injured),Vande Sompel (injured), Bouramman(56), Noel(134)
McKenzie: Connor(3),Siegenthaler(41),Merkley(49,53),Calem Booth(goaltender)
Pronman: Konecny(6),Aho the Swede(17),Wotherspoon(31),Tkachyov(32),Kylington(37),Looke(78)

Winnipeg had a very good draft here. The rest of us were pretty sad, I don't know, maybe Pronman a distant second.

2016

Back to Buffalo.
Tim Murray: Nylander(12),Budik(19),Fitzgerald(36),Hagel(45),Asplund(47,105), Murray(61), Nyberg(59,71), Glotov(95,132),Pu(Didn't Play Enough)
Me: Chychrun(4),Bratt(7)*,Gundstrom(24,31),Burke(32),Denis Alexeyev(29),Pethrus(40),Bernhardt(56)
Button: Debrincat(6),Brown(11,18),Burke(32)*,Phillips(36),David Quenneville(47,65), Bitten(82), Rasanen(92), Mattson(127)
Hockey News: Debrincat(6),Nylander(12),Mete(38),Gettinger(51),Sawchenko(Goaltender still in San Jose pipeline),Barron(100),Pu (Didn't play enough games),
Pronman: Debrincat(6),Bratt(7),Nylander(12),Aho the Swede(17),Burke(32)*,Mete(38)*,Sokolov(49),David Quenneville(47,65),Somppi(84)
McKenzie: Nylander(12),Libor Hajek(16),Bitten(82),Getttinger(51),Kopacka(72)

I changed the rules after the fact. For a while, I thought Hockey News drafting Mete a round earlier should
keep Proman from getting Mete a round later. In the end, this takes a player away from each of the contestants except the NHL team, since the Sabres would have to get, say Budik, even if someone else took him in an earlier round. Therefore I changed the rules, the *d players are those who this affects.

Pronman is way out ahead in 2016, he drafted 5 players that have been in the NHL, with Burke likely coming next year in Arizona. Me, Button, and Hockey News pretty close for second, then McKenzie, then Murray.

2017

Botterill: Luukkonen(Goaltender still in Sabres pipeline), Mittelstadt(23,25), Laaksonen(32), Bryson(34), Davidsson(46), Weissbach(110)
Me: Liljegren(4,47),Pasichnuk(13),Mikey Anderson(30),Josh Brook(45),Mason Shaw(73)
Button: Vilardi(20),Geekie(31),Barratt(35),Cayden Primeau(Goaltender in Montreal pipeline), Strome(65,108), Lipanov(115)
Pronman: Farrance(3),Vilardi(20),Lodnia(76),Joni Ikonen didn't play Markus Phillips(62,68)
McKenzie: Elvenes(15),Robertson(18),Vilardi(20),Michael DiPietro (Goaltender in Vancouver pipeline), Cayden Primeau(Goaltender in Montreal pipeline), Safin(83)
Canucksarmy: Vilardi(20),Mason Shaw(73), Mismash(79), Heponiemi(95), Strome(65,108)

A year ago 2017 looked very good for both me and the Sabres, but now it's all turned around. Bob McKenzie is way out in front, with two goaltenders getting NHL games this season. Second place? Hard to tell.

2018

Moved on to the Islanders, as everyone would have taken Dahlen had we used Buffalo. As it worked out, the Islanders ended up at the bottom of a tier, so almost everyone took the same 2 players. There were about 80 contestants, everyone that put up draft boards on HFB or twitter that I could find. It would take me forever to list everyone with their rankings. Who's leading? It's still early, but doing well are:
Lastwordonhockey: Wahlstrom/Dobson/Wilde/Thomas/Alexander Khovanov/Philipp Kurashev/Alexis Gravel/Nando Eggenberger
Benitofoto: Wahlstrom/Dobson/Hallander/Marchenko/Nordgren/Linus Nyman/Samuel Fagemo/Luka Burzan
Button: Dobson/Farabee/Wilde/Akil Thomas/Blake Mclaughlin/Aiden Dudas/Akira Schmid/Luka Burzan
Me? My year sucked.

Here's the valuations for 2018 forwards, then defensemen, followed by the 80 contestants. The *** means they haven't been drafted yet. ********* means they didn't have enough picks on their draft board.

1 Andrei Svechnikov (F)NHL
2 Brady Tkachuk (F)NHL
3 Filip Zadina (F)NHL
4 Linus Karlsson (F)Allsvenskan
5 Jesperi Kotkaniemi (F)AHL
6 Joel Farabee (F)NHL
7 Jack Drury (F)NCAA
8 Filip Zadina (F)AHL
9 Jan Jeník (F)OHL
10 Tyler Madden (F)NCAA
11 Filip Hållander (F)SHL
12 Akil Thomas (F)OHL
13 Samuel Fagemo (F)SHL
14 Isac Lundeström (F)NHL
15 Alexander Khovanov (F)QMJHL
16 Kirill Marchenko (F)KHL
17 Yegor Sokolov***QMJHL
18 Pavel Gogolev***OHL
19 Jonatan Berggren (F)SHL
20 Akil Thomas (F)OHL
21 David Gustafsson (F)AHL
22 Ty Dellandrea (F)OHL
23 Martin Kaut (F)AHL
24 Philipp Kurashev (F)AHL
25 Liam Foudy (F)OHL
26 Oliver Wahlstrom (F)AHL
27 Isac Lundeström (F)AHL
28 Curtis Hall (F)NCAA
29 Mathias Emilio Pettersen (F)NCAA
30 Benjamin Baumgartner***NLA

1 Rasmus Dahlin (D)NHL
2 Quinn Hughes (D)NHL
3 Nils Lundkvist (D)SHL
4 Evan Bouchard (D)AHL
5 Michael Callahan (D)NCAA
6 Adam Boqvist (D)NHL
7 Rasmus Sandin (D)AHL
8 John Ludvig (D)WHL
9 Noah Dobson (D)NHL
10 Adam Wilsby***Allsvenskan
11 Rasmus Sandin (D)NHL
12 Wyatte Wylie (D)WHL
13 Jacob Bernard-Docker (D)NCAA
14 Alec Regula (D)OHL
15 Tyler Tucker (D)OHL
16 Ty Smith (D)WHL
17 Bode Wilde (D)OHL
18 Tyler Tucker (D)OHL
19 Xavier Bouchard (D)QMJHL
20 Connor Corcoran (D)OHL

Lou Lamoriello/New York Islanders
Walstrom/Dobson/Wilde/Iskhakov/Jakub Skarek/Pivonka/Blade Jenkins/Krygier

NACS
Dobson/Noel/Wilde/Durzi/Lucas Wernblom/Xavier Bouchard/Kristof Hrabik/William Fransson

Bob McKenzie
Dobson/Ty Smith/Wilde/Akil Thomas/Jakub Lauko/Curtis Hall/Blade Jenkins/Nando Eggenberger

Craig Button
Dobson/Farabee/Wilde/Akil Thomas/Blake Mclaughlin/Aiden Dudas/Akira Schmid/Luka Burzan

The Hockey News
Wahlstrom/Dobson/Wilde/Akil Thomas/Sampo Ranta/Dimitri Zagorodny/Alexis Gravel/Anderson MacDonald

Pronman
Walstrom/Bokk/Wilde/Iskhakov/Semyon Der-Arguchintsev/Cole Fonstad/Nikolai Kovalenko/Mikhail Shalagin

Wheeler
Wahlstrom/Farabee/Tychonick/Akil Thomas/Allan McShane/Philipp Kurashev/Marcus Westfalt/Brendan Budy

Jonathan Willis
Merkley/Ty Smith/Wilde/Akil Thomas/Allen McShane/Cole Fonstad/Kyle Topping/Nathan Dunkley

liger of Sabrespace
Wahlstrom/Dobson/Akil Thomas/Filip Hallander/Aiden Dudas/Milos Roman/Blade Jenkins/Matthew Struthers

Sporting News
Velano/Smith/Wilde/Thomas/Jakub Lauko/Philipp Kurashev/Dmitri Zavgorodny/Ondrej Buchtela

ESPN Chris peters
Wahlstrom/Dobson/Thomas/Tychonick/Niklas Nordgren/Philipp Kurashev/Kristian Tanus/Dmitri Zavgorodny

Future Considerations
Wahlstrom/Smith/Wilde/Akil Thomas/Alexander Khovanov/Vladislav Kotkov/Alexis Gravel/Nikita Rtishchev

Cam Robinson
Wahlstrom/Dobson/Jake Wise/Akil Thomas/Niklas Nordgren/Aiden Dudas/Marcus Westfält/Matthew Struthers

Cameron Kuom
Wahstrom/Bokk/Akil Thomas/Filip Hallander/Cole Fonstad/Aiden Dudas/Marcus Westfält/Kirill Nizhnikov

The Draft Analyst
Farabee/Velano/Wilde/Thomas/Blake McLaughlin/Dmitry Zavgorodniy/Michal Kvasnica/Danila Galenyuk

MileHighHockey.com
Wahlstrom/Velano/Wilde/Addison/McShane/Cole Fonstad/Oliver Okuliar/*****

The Puck Authority.com
Wahlstrom/Farabee/Thomas/Tychonick/Niklas Nordgren/Aidan Dudas/Jerry Turkulainen/Carl Wassenius

HockeyProphets.com
Walhstrom/Dobson/Wilde/Thomas/Niklas Nordgren/****/****/****

bluebulletreport.com
Wahlstrom/Dobson/Wilde/Thomas/Cole Fonstad/Philipp Kurashev/Blade Jenkins/Dmitri Zavgorodny

Ryan Pike
Wahlstrom/Farabee/Thomas/Groulx/Alexander Khovanov/Cole Fonstad/Vladislav Kotkov/Nando Eggenberger

Larry Fisher
Wahlstrom/Dobson/Wilde/Tychonick/Niklas Nordgren/Aidan Dudas/Dmitri Zavgorodny/Danila Galenyuk

LastWordonHockey
Wahlstrom/Dobson/Wilde/Thomas/Alexander Khovanov/Philipp Kurashev/Alexis Gravel/Nando Eggenberger

Canucksarmy Spring
Wahlstrom/Lundestrom/Thomas/Addison/Cole Fonstad/Nathan Dunkley/Blade Jenkins/Kyle Topping

Canucksarmy Countdown
Wahlstrom/Ty Smith/Thomas/Addison/Cole Fonstad/Nathan Dunkley/Kyle Topping/Anderson MacDonald

Canucksarmy Consolidated
Wahlstrom/Dobson/Wilde/Thomas/Niklas Nordgren/Cole Fonstad/Blade Jenkins/Luka Burzan

Blueshirts Breakaway
Wahlstrom/Dobson/Thomas/David Gustaffson/Alexander Khovanov/Cole Fonstad/********/*********

hockeydraftcentral.com
Wahlstrom/Dobson/Lukas Dostal/Thomas/Jakub Lauko/Amir Miftakhov/Blade Jenkins/Vladislav Kotkov

soupsonhockey.com
Velano/Dobson/Wilde/Akil Thomas/Adam Mascherin/Cole Fonstad/Dennis Busby/**************

defendingbigd.com
Dobson/Velano/Wilde/Akil Thomas/Xavier Bernard/Cole Fonstad/Kristian Reichel/Luka Burzan

Fleury 14 of Hall of Fame Boards
Wahlstrom/Dobson/Filip Hållander/Bulat Shafigullin/Niklas Nordgren/Nikolai Kovalenko/Danila Galenyuk/German Grachyov

ProspectsFanatic of Hall of Fame Boards
Wahlstrom/Dobson/Hallander/Tychonick/Shafigullin/Zhuravlyov/Jenkins/Wassenius

Stive Morgan HFBoards
Smith/Dobson/Wilde/Addison/Slava Demin/Cole Fonstad/Vladislav Kotkov/Eric Florchuk

FrankGallagher of Hall of Fame Boards
Dobson/Bokk/Jonny Tychonick/Iskhakov/Oskar Bäck/Nikolai Kovalenko/Dennis Busby/Eric Florchuk

Victor of Hall of Fame Boards
Wahlstrom/Dobson/Wilde/Thomas/Alexander Khovanov/Aidan Dudas/Nathan Dunkley/***********

American Dream's 62 of Hall of Fame Boards
Wahlstrom/Dobson/Jake Wise/Filip Hallander/Kyle Topping/Cole Fonstad/********/**********

Lays of Hall of Fame Boards
Dobson/Farabee/Tychonick/Olofsson/Blake McLaughlin/Ryan Chyzowski/Danila Galenyuk/Chase Wouters

Tryamkin of Hall of Fame Boards
Wahlstrom/Dobson/Wilde/Addison/Alexander Khovanov/Milos Roman/Danila Galenyuk/Kyle Topping

danyhabsfan of Hall of Fame Boards
Wahlstrom/Dobson/Wilde/Thomas/Cole Fonstad/Topping/Blade Jenkins/Alex Steeves

Kevin Musto of Hall of Fame Boards
Wahlstrom/Dobson/Hallander/Tychonick/Lukas Dostal/Aidan Dudas/Nikolai Kovalenko/Amir Miftakhov

Magua of Hall of Fame Boards
Dobson/Berggren/Bulat Shafigullin/Tychonick/Danila Zhuravlyov/Spencer Stastney/Xavier Bouchard/Kyle Topping

Teemu of Hall of Fame Boards
Wahlstrom/Dobson/Wise/Calen Addison/Niklas Nordgren/Filip Král/Alex Steeves/Oliver Okuliar

NotProkofievian
Wahlstrom/Dobson/Hallander/Albin Eriksson/Niklas Nordgren/Cole Fonstad/Kyle Topping/Pavel Gogolev

Stef of Hall of Fame Boards
Wahlstrom/Dobson/Wilde/Durzi/Tyler Weiss/Philipp Kurashev/Nando Eggenberger/Linus Nyman

newdimensions HFB
Dobdon/Farabee/Thomas/Addison/Blake McLaughlin/Blade Jenkins/Kyle Topping/Luka Burzan

Rekingsfan17 - In with nd
Merkley/Bokk/Wise/Marchenko/Semyon Der-Arguchintsev/Cole Fonstad/Dennis Busby/Mikhail Shalagin

Butch of HFB
Wahlstrom/Merkley/Wise/Thomas/Niklas Nordgren/Cole Fonstad/Alexei Polodyan/Danila Galenyuk

PKSpecialist of HFB
Dobson/Smith/Wilde/Thomas/Jakub Lauko/Philipp Kurashev/Nando Eggenberger/Ryan Chyzowski

griepscouting.com May 1 @marcus_griep
Wahlstrom/Dobson/Wilde/Addison/Niklas Nordgren/Milos Roman/Danila Galenyuk/Kyle Topping

Scouching from twitter
Dobson/Smith/Thomas/Addison/Allan McShane/Blade Jenkins/Alex Steeves/Marcus Westfält

Andy Lehoux from twitter
Wahlstrom/Dobson/Wilde/Hallander/Nordgren/Kurashev/Blade Jenkins/Dmitri Zavgorodny

Edprospectwatch from twitter
Dobson/Velano/Wilde/Ginning/Lauko/Roman/Patrick Giles/Eric Florchuk

TheHockeyProspector
Dobson/Noel/Wilde/Thomas/Filipp Kurashev/Dmitri Zavgorodny/Burzan/Samuel Fagemo

Finley Sherritt@MobileNHL
Wahlstrom/Smith/Addison/Hallander/Lauko/Cole Fonstad/Blade Jenkins/Vladislav Kotkov

@VincentDuquette
Wahlstrom/Dobson/Wilde/Olofsson/Blake McLaughlin/Cole Fonstad/Nathan Dunkley/Luka Burzan

@Model284
Dobson/Velano/Ginning/Wise/Milos Roman/Paul Cotter/Libor Zabransky/Alex Steeves

@regressian Ian Tulloch
Wahlstrom/Smith/Calen Addison/Wise/Allan McShane/Aidan Dudas/Marcus Westfält/Jerry Turkulainen

@Benitofoto
Wahlstrom/Dobson/Hallander/Marchenko/Nordgren/Linus Nyman/Samuel Fagemo/Luka Burzan

@RinksideView David St-Louis
Wahlstrom/Dobson/Marchenko/Thomas/Semyon Der-Arguchintsev/Aidan Dudas/*******/*******

@victormete from twitter
Dobson/Smith/Thomas/Addison/Nordgren/Philipp Kurashev/*********/***********

@Priored Dean Priore from twitter
Wahlstrom/Dobson/Thomas/Tychonick/Nordgren/Cole Fonstad/Vladislav Kotkov/Nando Eggenberger

@paul_bernier_ DLB from twitter
Wahlstrom/Hallander/Addison/Marchenko/Shafigullin/Luka Burzan/Blade Jenkins/Linus Nyman

@_45bus rakish (me)
Wahlstrom/Dobson/Akil Thomas/Ty Emberson/Shafigullin/Xavier Bouchard/Carl Wassenius/Severi Lahtinen


2019

Back to Buffalo, 7 contestants

Sabres: Cousins(16),Johnson(62),Portillo-Goaltender,Huglen-Injured,Rousek(58),Cederqvist(135),
Me: Newhook(5),Kaliyev(11),Beaucage(53),Shalagin(129),Cederqvist(135),Rizzo(113)
liger: Zegras(6),Kaliyev(11),Murray(35),Cajkovic(56),Koffer
McKenzie: Cousins(16), Lavoie(22,27), Teply(36),Warren(65),Judd Caufield(89), Nikolayev(142)
Pronman: Kaliyev(11),Cole Caufield(31),Patrik Puistola(54,152),Dmitri Voronkov(54),Daniil Gutik(132),Michael Gildon-Not enough games
Button: Kaliyev(11),Cole Caufield(31),Marshall Warren(65),Ilya Nikolaev(142)/Kirill Slepets(88,111),Taylor Gauthier-Goaltender
Wheeler: Kaliyev(11),Cozens(16),Billy Constantinou(89),Pavel Dorofeyev(129),Mikhail Abramov, Dustin Wolf- Goaltender


Liger's a bit a head, but it's early.

Dated Links:
17,18,19: Mom's Basement Stakes | MetaFilter Projects
16: Sabrespace not supporting links anymore. http://forums.sabrespace.com/topic/23840-rakiis-draft-thread/?p=832351
15: Can't find it right now.
14: Sabrespace doesn't seem to support links anymore: https://forums.sabrespace.com/topic/22139-official-2014-nhl-draft-thread/?p=638308

Click to read more...

 

[emptyNedder]

Year 7 of Mom's Basement Stakes, my draft contest. The rules are pretty simple, you get the highest player on your draft board when the team we are drafting against picks, goalies are fine, but I don't draft them. I normally use Buffalo's picks, unless it's totally obvious who they will take (like Eichel), then I try another team. The valuation of post-draft players isn't as sophisticated as it is with 17 year olds, but in a few years, they sort of works itself out. I had a post at hall of fame boards for the 2018 draft, I can't find it, but you'll find many of your selections when we get to 2018 below.

If you want to enter the 2020 version, leave your draft list below. We will use Buffalo's pick unless they trade out. If they do, we'll reconsider. You generally need about 50 picks. If you want to podcast, talk about the 2020 draft, a particular pick, or anything else, just message me. I talk with people from sabrespace occasionally. The latest was with liger talking about pick 8.

Worth a try.

Raymond
Holtz
Rossi
Perfetti
Sanderson
Drysdale
Brisson
Mysak
Peterka
Greig
Niederbach
Barron
Holloway
Seeley
Wiesblatt
Finley
Berard
Jurmo
Torgerson
Chromiak
Robins
Heineman
Hunt
Sourdif
Faber
Gut
V Persson
Vierling
Cardwell
Magnusson
Knazko
Groshev
Pederson
Beryozkin
Kumlin
Kaslik
Ramberg
Forsfjall
Sundsvik
Szuber

 

[rakish]

Last call on this years Mom's BS. Looks like we have me, 42jerks, a few of the usual suspects, McKenzie, Button, Pronman, and Wheeler. Anyone else? I delayed so long because I was hoping to get a podcast or two together, but it didn't happen. Made new charts to show, but...sigh
Going over the rules, we use the team that picks 8, that's about all the rules.
My picks:
Rossi
Jarvis
Perfetti
Lundell
Holtz
Reichel
Grans
Ridley Graig
Mavrik Bourque
Hendrix Lapierre
Emil Heinman
Colangelo
Jack Finley
Javartie
Justin Sourdif
Rory Kerins
Zion Nybeck
Tyler Tullio
Alex Cotton
William Villeneuve
Pavel Novak
Daniil Gushchin
Florian Elias
Eric Juhlin
Zach Uens
Adam Wilsby
Simon Kubicek
Evan Vierling
Ben King
Nico Geidl
Reid Valade
Michal Gut
Veeti Miettinen
Declan Carlile
Elliot Ekmark
William Dufour
I'll be back in a few days to show who all the participants have, then again a few years later to see how everyone did.

 

[Favin]

So, we post our draft list, and whatever BPA is available at next BUF pick is selected from that list?

 

[WingsMJN2965]

So, we post our draft list, and whatever BPA is available at next BUF pick is selected from that list?

I think this is how Buffalo actually drafts...

 

[rakish]

So, we post our draft list, and whatever BPA is available at next BUF pick is selected from that list?

Yes, but if Buffalo trades the pick, to say Chicago, then we use all of Chicago's picks.

 

[rakish]

I think this is how Buffalo actually drafts...

I didn't use Buffalo for the two years that the pick was obvious, but when I do use Buffalo, they are normally near last place. Buffalo fired a bunch of scouts this Summer, so I think they'll draft less like McKenzie than they have in the past.

 

[rakish]

Worth a try.

Raymond
Holtz
Rossi
Perfetti
<snip>

The Sabres didn't make enough picks, I especially missed having picks in the 3rd and 4th round, so they weren't a good choice to use as the base team.

Sabres: Quinn 8,Peterka 34,Matteo Costantini 131,Albert Lyckasen 193,Jakub Konecny 216
42jerks: Rossi,Mysak,Ronan Seeley,Michal Gut,Ethan Cardwell
McKenzie: Perfetti,Peterka,Brett Berard,Pashin,Oliver Suni
Button: Perfetti,Pourier,Pashin,Devon Levi,Pavel Tyutnev
Pronman: Perfetti,Gunler,Connor McClennon,Pavel Gogolev,Ivan Didkovskiy
Wheeler: Rossi,Gunler,Veeti Miettinen,Alexander Pashin,James Hardie
rakish: Rossi,Grans,Rory Kerins,Florian Elias,Eric Juhlin

 

[rakish]

I'm back for year 8 of Mom's Basement Stakes. My draft board remains a work in progress. I put out a video on my draft process. I was hoping to avoid google, so I went with the public option at patreon.
Turns out I had to post it on Vimeo anyway. Joe Cochrane is creating Data Analysis | Patreon or
If you'd rather just see the list rather than hear about the process for 20 minutes:
Guenther,Power,Beniers,Eklund,Edvinsson,McTavish
picks for 33, still thinking about the order, it'll be some arrangement of these 5 I think.
Anton Olsson, Olen Zellweger, Conner Roulette, Brett Harrison, Sasha Pastujov
I'm not sure I'll put out another video with the rest of the draft board, it's not very ... watchable? But a final list will be done soon.

 

[rakish]

I talk about trying to correct for age bias in your draft board. I look at Buffalo, Carolina, and Los Angeles. Happy to post any other teams that people want to see.

 

[rakish]

Now that I've covered the basics of process, and a short guess at how other teams are using their analytics, I'll move on to individual players. The first is Jeremi Tammela

 

[rakish]

Simon Knak

 

[rakish]

Matt Beniers

 

[rakish]

Rhett Rhinehart, is he available? EP doesn't tell me. 3 1/2 minutes on Mr. Rhinehart.

 

[rakish]

Matic Torok

 

[rakish]

There's a nice Anton Olsson video that the NJ Devils put out on youtube, it's a nice pairing with my video.

I came up with an Adam Boqvist conspiracy theory as I try to wade through the Anton Olsson comparables.

 

[rakish]

I want to mention that I did a 3 part video on analytics, you can find them if you go to one of my links above, probably clicking on my name will show all the videos, but I won't link them here, as they aren't about the draft. The 14 min intro is called Ristolainen, the 29 min slog about data analysis tools is called Reinhart, and the 7 minute finale is called the analytics death spiral.

We are at last call for this years Mom's Basement. We are using Buffalo again, so you'll get a whole bunch of opportunities. It's as simple as can be, make a draft board, I take your top available player when Buffalo picks. Unless someone jumps in at the last moment here, it looks like about 6 contestants, me, liger (of sabrespace), and the usual suspects, Pronman, Wheeler, Button. Liger likes FC Hockey NHL Draft Rankings - FC Hockey and Sam from Twitter (@draftlook) Home | DraftLookHockey. And of course, the Buffalo Sabres.

Liger's board: 2021 NHL Draft Rankings

My board:
The numbers in parens are where others rank the player, it's helpful to me for ordering. The rakish: number is the 17th year raw valuation using my app. Defensemen didn't get the raw number because it's on a different scale. Goaltending is a lark, mostly to test some ideas.
Dylan Guenther (2-12) rakish:1320 (12 games)
Owen Power
Matt Beniers (1-18) rakish:1012
William Eklund (2-10) rakish:1125
Cole Sillinger (10-20) rakish:747
Mason McTavish
Brandt Clarke
Simon Edvinsson (2-11) D
Logan Stankoven (13-44) rakish:732
Sebastian Cossa (14-32) G (Only select one goaltender)
Anton Olsson (32-98) - D
Olen Zellweger (31-88) D
Connor Roulette (39-95) rakish:675
Brett Harrison (29-84) rakish:694 (not many games)
Samu Salminen (31-98) rakish:652
Ville Koivunen -- (30-91) rakish:580
Riley Kidney -- (70-92) rakish:600
Zachary L'Heureux (11-35) rakish:514
Xavier Bourgault (15-36) rakish:552
William Stromgren (21-92) rakish:557,543
Jack O'Brien (84-215) rakish:544
Fyodor Svechkov (9-37) rakish:534
Colton Dach -- (50-96) rakish:496
Victor Stjernborg -- (43-71) rakish:475
Niko Huuhtanen (117-157) heavy rakish:328
Simon Knak -- overager (86 NA css)
Isaac Belliveau (62-239) D
William Trudeau (83-200) D
Jack Bar (37-87)
Mikey Milne -- (162 NA css) rakish:512
Eric Alarie -- (51 NA css) rakish:474
Olivier Nadeau (74-101) rakish:461
Rhett Rhinehart - overager
Benjamin Gaudreau (Only select one goaltender)
Thomas Milic (only select one goaltender)
Oliver Satny (Only select one goaltender)
Jeremi Tammela -- (112 EU css) tiny rakish:406
Matic Török
Bogdan Krokhalyov
Viktor Hurtig -- overager (51 EU css) huge
Hunter McKown - overager
Kevin Pasche
Nikolas Hurtubise
Sebastian Trygg

 

[emptyNedder]

Not terribly confident and too tired, but here goes. Also left off quite a few players after Power since Buffalo is choosing 1.

Power
Peart
Raty
Olausson
Koivunen
Pastujov
Kapanen
Salminen
Hreschuk
Martino
Roulette
Harrison
C Dach
Helenius
G Richard
Ervasti
Brabenec
Arcuri
Cardwell
Chiasson
Hinds
Alarie
Stringer
Berg
Guevin
P Moravec
Marjala
Mast
Alexander
MacInnes

 

[rakish]

Not terribly confident and too tired, but here goes. Also not quite a few players after Power since Buffalo is choosing 1.

Power
Peart ...

Excellent.

 

[rakish]

Not terribly confident and too tired, but here goes. Also left off quite a few players after Power since Buffalo is choosing 1.

Power
Peart
...

Mom's Basement for 2021.

I think people under-emphasize the importance of order vs. valuation. A look at my board (about 3 posts above in this topic) you'll see that if I had Cossa...Zellweger... Olsson instead of Stankoven...Olsson, I would have gained for myself a #14 pick I essentially didn't use, so I wasted the #14 pick by putting Cossa one spot behind Stankoven. Draftlook has the same issue, by drafting Wallstadt first (as compared to Liger's pick of Wallstadt at #14), Draftlook ended up with Wallstadt and Lambos instead of Eklund and Wallstadt, essentially trading #1 for the player selected #26.

I thought draftlook had more picks than they did, that's why they ran out of selections, I think they listed 32 picks. Liger ran out of picks for the last one, as did Button.

I was hoping to draft a goalie, I missed a couple opportunities by just one pick, oh well. The downside to having to make my list beforehand.

Sabres
#1 Owen Power (D),#14 Isak Rosén (F),#33 Prokhor Poltapov (F),#53 Alexander Kisakov (F)
#88 Stiven Sardaryan (F),#95 Joshua Bloom (F),#97 Olivier Nadeau (F),#159 Viljami Marjala (F)
#161 William von Barnekow (F),#188 Nikita V. Novikov (D),#193 Tyson Kozak (F)

Pronman
#1 Owen Power,#14 Chaz Lucius,#33 Nikita Chibrikov,#53 Kirill Kirsanov,
#88 Justin Robidas, #95 Olivier Nadeau, #97 Vladislav Lukashevich (D), #159 Lorenzo Canonica (not drafted)
#161 Daniil Lazutin (not drafted), #188 Ty Gallagher, #193 Daniil Pylenkov

Liger
#1 William Eklund, #14 Jesper Wallstedt, #33 Aatu Raty, #53 Simon Robertsson
#88 Dylan Duke, #95 Robert Orr #97 Sean Tschigerl, #159 Elias Stenman (not drafted)
#161 Trevor Wong (not drafted), #188 Simon Motew (not drafted), #193 xxxxxx

Wheeler
#1 Owen Power, #14 Chaz Lucius, #33 Sasha Pastujov, #53 Sean Behrens (D)
#88 Dylan Duke (F) #95 Joshua Roy #97 Connor Roulette, #159 Peter Reynolds (not drafted)
#161 Jeremy Wilmer (not selected), #188 Trevor Wong (not drafted), #193 Kelle Ervasti (not drafted)

Button
#1 Owen Power, #14 Fedor Svechkov, #33 Samu Tuomaala (F), #53 Benjamin Gaudreau (G)
#88 Dylan Duke #95 James Malatesta (F) #97 Robert Orr (F), #159 Hunter Strand (not drafted)
#161 Dmitri Zugan (not drafted), #188 Nikita V. Novikov (D), #193 xxxxxxxxx

Sam (@draftlook)
#1 Jesper Wallstedt, #14 Carson Lambos, #33 Sasha Pastujov, #53 Sean Behrens (D)
#88 xxxxxxxxx

42jerks
#1 Owen Power, #14 Jack Peart, #33 Aatu Raty, #53 Sasha Pastujov
#88 Aidan Hreschuk (D), #95 Conner Roulette (F), #97 Guillaume Richard (D), #159 Kelle Ervasti (not drafted)
#161 Francesco Arcuri (F), #188 Eric Alarie (not drafted), #193 Zack Stringer

FCHockey
#1 Owen Power, #14 Jesper Wallstedt, #33 Aatu Raty, #53 Simon Robertsson (F)
#88 Dylan Duke (F), #95 Ty Voit (F), #97 Vladislav Lukashevich (D), #159 Matvei Petrov (F)
#161 Connor Lockhart (F), #188 Dmitri Katelevsky, #193 Trevor Wong (not drafted)

rakish
#1 Dylan Guenther, #14 Logan Stankoven, #33 Anton Olsson, #53 Connor Roulette
#88 Jack O'Brien (not drafted), #95 Victor Stjernborg, #97 Niko Huuhtanen (F), #159 Simon Knak (F)
#161 Mikey Milne (not drafted), #188 Eric Alarie (not drafted), #193 Rhett Rhinehart (not drafted)

 

[rakish]

The excitement builds for Year 9 of Mom's Basement Stakes. Get your picks in, the stakes are really small. I take a purely mathematical approach to the draft, comparing my results to the usual suspects, the full list can be found over at hfboards above in this thread.

First we'll look at year 8. It's obviously early in the competition, so there's no judgements here. I no longer value all the players because it's too time consuming, so I only valued the players that were selected in Mom's last season, plus a couple, because I just had to see. A handful of players didn't get valued because they are in a league that pick224.com doesn't cover, like the VHL.
*** means he hasn't be drafted.
Goaltenders? Who knows?
Forwards
1 Aatu Räty Liiga 1079
2 Matthew Beniers NCAA 777
3 William Eklund SHL 756
4 Joshua Roy QMJHL 671
5 Logan Stankoven WHL 642
6 Chaz Lucius NCAA 624
7 Matvei Petrov OHL 620
8 Dylan Guenther WHL 612
9 Mikey Milne*** WHL 585
10 Francesco Arcuri OHL 581
11 Ty Voit OHL 538
12 Niko Huuhtanen WHL 504
13 James Stefan *** WHL 476
14 Connor Kurth *** USHL 471
15 Sasha Pastujov OHL 454
16 Riley Kidney QMJHL 444
17 Eric Alarie*** WHL 424
18 Conner Roulette WHL 416
19 Jeremy Wilmer*** USHL 386
20 Collin Graf *** NCAA 376
21 Tyson Kozak WHL 357
22 Kent Johnson USHL 334
23 Justin Robidas QMJHL 328
24 Trevor Wong overager*** WHL 324
25 Dylan Duke NCAA 315
26 Olivier Nadeau QMJHL 314
27 Sean Tschigerl WHL 313
28 Peter Reynolds *** QMJHL 312
29 James Malatesta USHL 312
30 Alexander Kisakov MHL 301
31 Connor Lockhart OHL 293
32 Hunter Strand*** NCAA 274
33 Robert Orr QMJHL 267
34 Joshua Bloom OHL 266
35 Simon Robertsson SuperElit 251
36 William von Barnekow SuperElit 250
37 Jack O!Brien WHL 248
38 Stiven Sardaryan USHL 247
39 Isak Rosén SHL 208
40 Viljami Marjala QMJHL 182
41 Elias Stenman overage*** SuperElit 176
42 Lorenzo Canonica overage*** QMJHL 165
43 Prokhor Poltapov MHL 157
44 William Strömgren SuperElit 157
45 Daniil Lazutin overage*** MHL 152
46 Zack Stringer WHL 152
47 Dmitri Zugan*** MHL 145

Defensemen
1 Owen Power NCAA 673
2 Luke Hughes USHL 619
3 Ty Gallagher NCAA 336
4 Olen Zellweger WHL 324
5 Guillaume Richard NCAA 299
6 Carson Lambos WHL 291
7 Sean Behrens NCAA 279
8 Bogdans Hodass *** USHL 191
9 Jack Peart NCAA 138
10 Anton Olsson SHL 116
11 Aidan Hreschuk NCAA 106
12 Simon Motew *** OHL 96
13 Kalle Ervasti U20 SM-sarja 83
14 Vladislav Lukashevich MHL 16


After our first year, FC Hockey looks to be out in the lead.
#1 Owen Power, #14 Jesper Wallstedt, #33 Aatu Raty, #53 Simon Robertsson (F)
#88 Dylan Duke (F), #95 Ty Voit (F), #97 Vladislav Lukashevich (D), #159 Matvei Petrov (F)
#161 Connor Lockhart (F), #188 Dmitri Katelevsky, #193 Trevor Wong (not drafted)

A very close second place we'll give to HF Boards own @42 jerks , or maybe Liger
#1 Owen Power, #14 Jack Peart, #33 Aatu Raty, #53 Sasha Pastujov
#88 Aidan Hreschuk (D), #95 Conner Roulette (F), #97 Guillaume Richard (D), #159 Kelle Ervasti (not drafted)
#161 Francesco Arcuri (F), #188 Eric Alarie (not drafted), #193 Zack Stringer

A very close third is Sabrespace's own Liger.
#1 William Eklund, #14 Jesper Wallstedt, #33 Aatu Raty, #53 Simon Robertsson
#88 Dylan Duke, #95 Robert Orr #97 Sean Tschigerl, #159 Elias Stenman (not drafted)
#161 Trevor Wong (not drafted), #188 Simon Motew (not drafted), #193 xxxxxx

A very close fourth is Wheeler
#1 Owen Power, #14 Chaz Lucius, #33 Sasha Pastujov, #53 Sean Behrens (D)
#88 Dylan Duke (F) #95 Joshua Roy #97 Connor Roulette, #159 Peter Reynolds (not drafted)
#161 Jeremy Wilmer (not selected), #188 Trevor Wong (not drafted), #193 Kelle Ervasti (not drafted)

Fifth is Pronman
#1 Owen Power,#14 Chaz Lucius,#33 Nikita Chibrikov,#53 Kirill Kirsanov,
#88 Justin Robidas, #95 Olivier Nadeau, #97 Vladislav Lukashevich (D), #159 Lorenzo Canonica (not drafted)
#161 Daniil Lazutin (not drafted), #188 Ty Gallagher, #193 Daniil Pylenkov

I'm in 6th, or maybe Button
rakish
#1 Dylan Guenther, #14 Logan Stankoven, #33 Anton Olsson, #53 Connor Roulette
#88 Jack O'Brien (not drafted), #95 Victor Stjernborg, #97 Niko Huuhtanen (F), #159 Simon Knak (F)
#161 Mikey Milne (not drafted), #188 Eric Alarie (not drafted), #193 Rhett Rhinehart (not drafted)

Button
#1 Owen Power, #14 Fedor Svechkov, #33 Samu Tuomaala (F), #53 Benjamin Gaudreau (G)
#88 Dylan Duke #95 James Malatesta (F) #97 Robert Orr (F), #159 Hunter Strand (not drafted)
#161 Dmitri Zugan (not drafted), #188 Nikita V. Novikov (D), #193 xxxxxxxxx

The Sabres are last
#1 Owen Power (D),#14 Isak Rosén (F),#33 Prokhor Poltapov (F),#53 Alexander Kisakov (F)
#88 Stiven Sardaryan (F),#95 Joshua Bloom (F),#97 Olivier Nadeau (F),#159 Viljami Marjala (F)
#161 William von Barnekow (F),#188 Nikita V. Novikov (D),#193 Tyson Kozak (F)

For Year 9, we'll use the Sabres again, as they have a lot of picks. My board looks like this, though I often swap around things after I think about it for a while. While it's a weak draft at the top, it's not so bad for the picks Buffalo has.

Juraj Slafkovsky Fin20
Jonathan Lekkerimaki SuperElit
Liam Ohgren SuperElit
Denton Mateychuk
Marco Kasper
Conor Geekie WHL
Brad Lambert
Pavel Mintyukov
Danila Yurov
Rutger McGroarty
David Goyette
Frank Nazar
Isaac Howard
Kevin Korchinski
Lian Bichsel SHL
Christian Kyrou
Jagger Firkus WHL
Fraser Minten WHL
Mathew Seminoff wHL
Aleksanteri Kaskimaki Fin20
Alexander Suzdalev
Connor Kurth overage
James Stefan overager
Anton Johansson
Petr Hauser Czech20
Matias Rantonen Fin20
Otto Hokkanen Fin20
German Tochilkin MHL
Matyas Melovsky Czech20
Tnias Mathurin
Marek Alscher
Tyler Dunbar USHL
Niks Fenenko
Jeremy Langlois

 

[emptyNedder]

With 3 1sts this is going to be a challenging and fun year.

David Jiricek
Marco Kasper
Cutter Gauthier
Matthew Savoie
Connor Geekie
Jiri Kulich
Frank Nazar
Liam Ohgren
Jimmy Snuggerud
Nathan Gaucher
Lian Bichsel
Filip Mesar
Tristan Luneau
Matyas Sapovaliv
Sam Rinzel
Elias Salomonsson
Filip Bystedt
Julian Lutz
Artyom Duda
Tomas Hamara
Michael Fisher
Topi Ronni
Otto Salin
Jake Furlong
Quinn Finley
Adam Engstrom
Fabian Wagner
Marcus Vidicek
Jere Lasilla
Frederic Brunet
Nicholas Moldenhauer
Alexis Gendron
Veit Oswald
Hannes Hellberg
Martin Johnsen
Gabriel Koch
Niks Fenenko
Maros Jedlicka
Theo Keilin
Gustav Karlsson
Joey Muldowney
Vinnie Borgesi
Kasper Magnussen
Maks Percic
Dans Locmelis

 

[rakish]

With 3 1sts this is going to be a challenging and fun year.

David Jiricek
Marco Kasper...

Excellent

 

[rakish]

liger from sabrespace.com posted his draft board, I'll cut and paste it here.

1 Shane Wright (C)
2 Logan Cooley (C)
3 Simon Nemec (RHD)
4 David Jiricek (RHD)
5 Juraj Slafkovský (LW)
6 Frank Nazar (C/RW)
7 Pavel Mintyukov (LHD)
8 Liam Öhgren (LW)
9 Matthew Savoie (C)
10 Marco Kasper (C)
11 Denton Mateychuk (LHD)
12 Joakim Kemell (RW)
13 Danila Yurov (RW)
14 Jonathan Lekkerimäki (RW)
15 Cutter Gauthier (C/LW)
16 Owen Beck (C)
17 Isaac Howard (LW)
18 Kevin Korchinski (D)
19 Jiri Kulich (C)
20 Gleb Trikozov (C/RW)
21 Jagger Firkus (RW)
22 Conor Geekie (C)
23 Rutger McGroarty (C)
24 Noah Östlund (C)
25 Ivan Miroshnichenko (LW)
26 Brad Lambert (C/RW)
27 Nathan Gaucher (C)
28 Ryan Chesley (RHD)
29 Jimmy Snuggerud (W)
30 Calle Odelius (LHD)
31 Owen Pickering (LHD)
32 Mattias Hävelid (RHD)
33 Lane Hutson LHD
34 Filip Mesar W/C
35 David Goyette C
36 Daniil Zhilkin C
37 Vinzenz Rohrer RW
38 Adam Ingram C/LW
39 Christian Kyrou LHD
40 Hunter Haight C/RW
41 Adam Sykora LW/RW
42 Devin Kaplan RW
43 Cameron Lund C/RW
44 Filip Bystedt C
45 Lian Bichsel LHD
46 Jack Hughes C
47 Luca Del Bel Belluz C
48 Jani Nyman LW
49 Alexander Perevalov LW
50 Julian Lutz LW/RW
51 Sam Rinzel RHD
52 Michael LaStarza LW
53 Jordan Gustafson LW
54 Beau Jelsma LW
55 Nicholas Moldenhauer C/RW
56 Fraser Minten LW
57 Pano Fimis C
58 Servác Petrovský C
59 Reid Schaefer LW
60 Tristan Luneau RHD
61 Seamus Casey RHD
62 Bryce McConnell-Barker C
63 Logan Morrison (OA) C
64 Paul Ludwinski C
65 Noah Warren RHD
66 Alex Sotek RW
67 Michael Fisher RHD
68 Mikey Milne (OA) LW
69 Vladimir Grudinin LHD
70 Jordan Dumais LW
71 Hudson Thornton LHD
72 Elias Salomonsson RHD
73 Owen Van Steensel LW
74 Marcus Nguyen RW
75 Rieger Lorenz C
76 Daimon Gardner C
77 Ty Nelson RHD
78 Ryan Healey RHD
79 Avery Hayes (OA) C/RW
80 Zach Bookman (OA) RHD
81 Kenta Isogai LW

Key:
RHD = Right Handed Defender
LHD = Left Handed Defender
RW = Right Wing
LW = Left Wing
W = Winger
C = Center
OA = Overager

 

[rakish]

Last call on Mom's Basement Stakes.

I'll make one update because my list will be bad if Lettermakki goes before 9. OK, I made two updates.

Juraj Slafkovsky Fin20
Jonathan Lekkerimaki SuperElit
Marco Kasper
Liam Ohgren SuperElit
Denton Mateychuk
Brad Lambert
Pavel Mintyukov
Danila Yurov
Rutger McGroarty
Conor Geekie WHL
David Goyette
Frank Nazar
Isaac Howard
Kevin Korchinski
Lian Bichsel SHL
Christian Kyrou
Jagger Firkus WHL
Fraser Minten WHL
Mathew Seminoff wHL
Aleksanteri Kaskimaki Fin20
Alexander Suzdalev
Connor Kurth overage
James Stefan overager
Anton Johansson
Petr Hauser Czech20
Matias Rantonen Fin20
Otto Hokkanen Fin20
German Tochilkin MHL
Matyas Melovsky Czech20
Tnias Mathurin
Marek Alscher
Tyler Dunbar USHL
Niks Fenenko
Jeremy Langlois