StevenToddIves
Registered User
I appreciate the detailed response a lot, and personally, I agree with your assessment in a couple of ways on Gunler, mainly in the passing/IQ department. Gunler is a great player, but he very often forces bad passes and just plain throws the puck away far too much. He really needs to work on this aspect of his game if he wants to not be a turnover machine in the NHL.
There's a couple of areas I want to comment on. I disagree with the question concerning his 200 foot game. Every time I have seen him play, I can't seem to understand why people call this into question. He is fantastic at putting pressure on the puck (2 of his 4 goals came off of turnovers forced by doing this) and on the forecheck and the backcheck, and his overall defensive game to me looked quite poised for a teenager in a men's league. I also really like his size at 6'2". He is definitely physically underdeveloped but putting on muscle and increasing overall strength is one of the areas where I think all players can and will improve, so I don't usually hold this against draft eligible players. I think when he puts on some more muscle, he will look even better on the defensive end, as he will probably fill in the one missing gap in his current defensive play: the ability to play with physicality.
I in no way believe Kaliyev is a good comparison for Gunler. Kaliyev was ridiculously lazy and awful in the defensive zone, which I think is the exact opposite of Gunler. This brings up the topic of consistency as well, which I have heard people talking about. It's very hard for a player like Gunler to play a consistent, 100% game all of the time when you move from playing 20 minutes a game in the lower league to playing less than 10 minutes a game in the SHL. Not only is it a much tougher league, but he never gets the chance to actually fully adjust to the men's game and actually play consistent minutes like he is used to. I mean, he was essentially used as a 4th liner the entire year, there's not much he can do about that.
The character issues are very interesting to me. I've heard a lot of conflicting things about the issues, so I am not going to act like I am an expert on the topic. It seems to me like a lot of people have heard the situation has been blown a little out of proportion and they are not something to worry about. Obviously something to always be wary of and I am sure some NHL scouts know the ins of the problem, but for me, I am going to say its not too big of a deal. Its really quite unfortunate that this has lead to him not being able to prove himself at international tournaments, but I think had he gone, he would have performed quite well (obviously pure speculation on that).
I absolutely love Gunler's offensive game. He is a great skater, but can definitely improve a little bit still, but not really anything to worry about for me. His shot is absolutely beautiful for me. I love his quick, hard release and his one timer abilities that will make him wherever he shoots from in the offensive zone. He also just has this great ability to always be in high danger scoring areas to get his shot off, something that I believe will really help his game translate to the next level. I mentioned his passing ability as a concern earlier in relation to his IQ, but that's not to say he's a bad passer. He's actually still quite good. He does a good job of staying knowledgeable of his teammates at all times and making good overall plays. I will say, though, that he plays far too much like a pass first player and should play more like a shoot first player, given that his shot is the part of his game that makes him so effective. Once he starts doing that, I feel as though he will then break out as a player.
As for his potential, I think he is not necessarily boom/bust, as I think he at the very least should turn into a serviceable 3rd liner so long as he improves his physicality. But when I watch this kid play, man, his potential just looks through the roof for me. I think he will definitely be one of those players who will take a lot of time to develop, I am going to say 2 more years in the SHL, but I think if it all pans out, it will definitely be worth it. I have a little trouble putting my finger on an NHL comparison, maybe like Phil Kessel who plays a higher pressure game. I think when its all said and done, he should be a 35-30 kinda guy who can play a solid 200 foot game and be great on special teams, but I think he has a chance at hitting his max NHL potential of being a 40-40 player. My #8 ranking might be a little high relative to the norm, but hey, we all have our differing opinions which is what makes projecting these players just so interesting and enjoyable. This draft in my opinion is really good this year which definitely makes ranking players a lot harder than others
That's an outstanding debate for a player you're high on. I certainly see a lot of your points, and I agree there is great reason to hold out for a kid as talented as Noel Gunler. Though I would disagree with your #8 ranking of him, I agree on your more important point, which is that our differing opinions makes the projection of prospects more interesting and enjoyable. It's certainly going to be a fun draft to watch.