Toggle sidebar

OT: 2020 Football Thread: We All Suck

  • Xenforo Cloud will be upgrading us to version 2.3.5 on March 3rd at 12 AM GMT. This version has increased stability and fixes several bugs. We expect downtime for the duration of the update. The admin team will continue to work on existing issues, templates and upgrade all necessary available addons to minimize impact of this new version. Click Here for Updates
Status
Not open for further replies.
Maximus said:
Yeah you might be right as Jets by accident might win a game vs the Skins and Cowboys. Doubt they could beat the Eagles or your Gmen as both as inconsistant as both teams are, are worlds better than the Jets.

If Giants and Jets played this year let's say next week hypothetically, the Giants would likely be 6-6.5 favorites maybe even a full 7. I don't think you'd have to worry to much about the Jets winning tho I could see you and other Giant fans maybe getting nervous about the prospects of losing to such a horrid team as the Jets.

Hopefully the next time our two teams play for real in 3 more seasons from now, both teams will be true playoff worthy teams and it will be fun again for the rivalry. One can dream...right...lol
Click to expand...

I think the Cowboys with Dalton and definitely Prescott have the best team in this division. The Eagles are falling apart.
 
SA16 said:
It is unlikely they win zero games. A team with an 11% win probability in every game would have a 50% chance to win at least one game in a six game sample. For the sake of comparison an 11% win probability is roughly equivalent to a point spread of around 12. So of course you don't "see" any wins. They will always be an underdog. But even the worst team in the league would be a favorite to win at least one game over six. For reference both the Jets/Jags have implied win probabilities this week of roughly 28% which is way higher than 11% and would change their chance of 1+ wins over 6 games to a highly likely 86% if that was their WP every week. It is possible that either, or both, go 0-6 to end the year but it is by no means likely. I haven't run the numbers but the most likely scenario I assume is that they each will win one game.
Click to expand...
In a 16 games season, a team with a consistent 11% win probability has a 15% chance to go 0-16. Not only that, an 0-16 season is within 1 standard deviation of the mean. Of course, each game has a different probability so these numbers are mostly meaningless.
 
Maximus said:
Yeah you might be right as Jets by accident might win a game vs the Skins and Cowboys. Doubt they could beat the Eagles or your Gmen as both as inconsistant as both teams are, are worlds better than the Jets.

If Giants and Jets played this year let's say next week hypothetically, the Giants would likely be 6-6.5 favorites maybe even a full 7. I don't think you'd have to worry to much about the Jets winning tho I could see you and other Giant fans maybe getting nervous about the prospects of losing to such a horrid team as the Jets.

Hopefully the next time our two teams play for real in 3 more seasons from now, both teams will be true playoff worthy teams and it will be fun again for the rivalry. One can dream...right...lol
Click to expand...
Here's my bold prediction. The Jets will beat the Browns, returning the favor from 2 years ago.
 
sbjnyc said:
Here's my bold prediction. The Jets will beat the Browns, returning the favor from 2 years ago.
Click to expand...

Well as I said previously before this weekend, my ranking of "scaredness" is that even a word(lol) of a Jet win was in order was Cleveland, Chargers and the Patriots.

Now that we dodged a bullet vs San Diego, I'll toss in the Dolphins next week just behind the Patriots as Miami/Jet games never seem to follow the script.

But yes the Browns game gets me nervous. Baker has been known to implode. Are the Browns really as good as their record? And the Browns are just about as cursed as the Jets are and so with the prospects of the game meaning alot for the Browns playoff chances, it wouldn't shock me in the least if that Brown game was our one win as Cleveland pulls a chokola. So we are obviously in agreement.
 
sbjnyc said:
In a 16 games season, a team with a consistent 11% win probability has a 15% chance to go 0-16. Not only that, an 0-16 season is within 1 standard deviation of the mean. Of course, each game has a different probability so these numbers are mostly meaningless.
Click to expand...

The main point is no team is bad enough to have their true win probability even at 11%. You only see that in the NBA in very very lopsided games. Nobody is consistently 12 point underdogs. Even the Jets/Jags are only 7 points this week. They weren't that much last week either. Their expectation should be on average something like 20%. And that a team that is expected to lose each game individually is still expected to win games overall.

In 2017 when Cleveland went 0-16 the average point spread in their games was Opposition -6.5 (Week 17 NFL Point Spread: Las Vegas NFL football point spreads from week 17. Pro football spreads.) with only four games above 10 and a high of 13.5. That equates to an average expected win probability of like 27%. The bad teams are never as bad as they actually seem.
 
Last edited:
  • Like
Reactions: SnowblindNYR
SA16 said:
The main point is no team is bad enough to have their true win probability even at 11%. You only see that in the NBA in very very lopsided games. Nobody is consistently 12 point underdogs. Even the Jets/Jags are only 7 points this week. They weren't that much last week either. Their expectation should be on average something like 20%. And that a team that is expected to lose each game individually is still expected to win games overall.

In 2017 when Cleveland went 0-16 the average point spread in their games was Opposition -6.5 (Week 17 NFL Point Spread: Las Vegas NFL football point spreads from week 17. Pro football spreads.) with only four games above 10 and a high of 13.5. That equates to an average expected win probability of like 27%. The bad teams are never as bad as they actually seem.
Click to expand...
Depends how you look at it. The jets didn’t cover their first 6 games which indicates the oddsmakers did not rate the jets as poor as they are. The jets covered 3 of the next 4 weeks so maybe now we’re getting a truer indication of how good or bad the jets are.
 
SnowblindNYR said:
The 08 Lions made it into an Eminem song.

"I'm Brian Dawkins vs. the whole 0-16 Detroit Lions offense"

This is why you want to win a game somewhere in there.
Click to expand...

Nope...I don't want any wins. We are 0-10. Who gives a hoot if we finish 0-16?

Apparently the Jets are behind in the strength of schedule charts they use for tie-breakers to determine who would have #1 overall pick. I believe it's something like the Jags .536 vs Jets .562.

I have a bad feeling if Jets win even one game, they'll finish with the 2nd pick seeing as I said, I don't see the Jags winning another game rest of the way.

0-16 is the way to go. My fear now is that the Jet offense looks somewhat decent lately and they may accidently stumble into a win.
 
  • Like
Reactions: SnowblindNYR
Maximus said:
Nope...I don't want any wins. We are 0-10. Who gives a hoot if we finish 0-16?

Apparently the Jets are behind in the strength of schedule charts they use for tie-breakers to determine who would have #1 overall pick. I believe it's something like the Jags .536 vs Jets .562.

I have a bad feeling if Jets win even one game, they'll finish with the 2nd pick seeing as I said, I don't see the Jags winning another game rest of the way.

0-16 is the way to go. My fear now is that the Jet offense looks somewhat decent lately and they may accidently stumble into a win.
Click to expand...

Yeah if it's between 0-16 and #1 overall pick and 1-15 and #2 overall you go for #1 overall.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Leetch3
SnowblindNYR said:
Yeah if it's between 0-16 and #1 overall pick and 1-15 and #2 overall you go for #1 overall.
Click to expand...
..

Absofriggenlutly...no question about it. As I said tho, the offense is beginning to look competent and guys like Perriman, Mims are looking dangerous. With Darnold coming back fully knowing this might be his last chance to both show the Jets he still has what it takes and/or show other teams he has the goods and is worth trading for, I would not be suprised in the least if Sam has a very nice final part of the season.

I mean it's not like he hasn't had good spurts the previous two seasons...he has. Darnold has talent. He now has some weaponry at this disposal now and the O-line tho still sieve like, is a little better than it was earlier in the season.

Sooooo...that's why I'm a bit nervous Jets could stumble into a win. Hopefully they won't but it's hard to go 0-16 and this is the Jets we are talking about and you just know if anyone could screw up a tank job...it would be the Jets...we'll see how it plays out!
 
  • Like
Reactions: SnowblindNYR
Maximus said:
Nope...I don't want any wins. We are 0-10. Who gives a hoot if we finish 0-16?

Apparently the Jets are behind in the strength of schedule charts they use for tie-breakers to determine who would have #1 overall pick. I believe it's something like the Jags .536 vs Jets .562.

I have a bad feeling if Jets win even one game, they'll finish with the 2nd pick seeing as I said, I don't see the Jags winning another game rest of the way.

0-16 is the way to go. My fear now is that the Jet offense looks somewhat decent lately and they may accidently stumble into a win.
Click to expand...
All of my Jet fan friends are all saying the same thing. I have never seen a fan base root so hard of a winless season.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Maximus
RGY said:
I am pretty damn excited for the Giants game this week. Dont care that they have 3 wins and the Division sucks, they are improving and have a chance to sneak into the playoffs.
Click to expand...
6 wins, wins that division, and the Giants are on their way up. I watched the Browns/Eagles game like my life depended on it. It was nice to have a rooting interest in a game. It's been a while. I didn't watch this past week's Dallas game, people are saying they are the best team in the division. IMO the Giants have improved every week and seem like they are primed for a nice run. This weekend will be HUGE!
 
  • Like
Reactions: NCRanger and RGY
thats 2 weeks in a row that the Jets very nearly pulled it off. I thought, since the beginning of the season, that an offense with a full healthy Crowder, Mims, Perriman, Becton, Fant, Bell, Sam, Herndon etc could look halfway decent. A mostly healthy offense could have beaten Denver, for example.

Unfortunately this is the NFL and no one is every 100% healthy, and our depth is absolutely abysmal. Sam must be fuming with jealousy that Flacco gets to throw to those 3 guys instead of Jeff Smith and Ben Hogan lmao.

Either way, the only game we have a chance to win now is week 17 against New England, and I really would not put it past Belichick to purposely lose that game if Jacksonville finishes with 1 win, and screw us out of T-Law. He's that much of a dick and has a vendetta against this organization for some reason.

Really wish Jacksonville would win one more game.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Baby Punisher
KirkAlbuquerque said:
thats 2 weeks in a row that the Jets very nearly pulled it off. I thought, since the beginning of the season, that an offense with a full healthy Crowder, Mims, Perriman, Becton, Fant, Bell, Sam, Herndon etc could look halfway decent. A mostly healthy offense could have beaten Denver, for example.

Unfortunately this is the NFL and no one is every 100% healthy, and our depth is absolutely abysmal. Sam must be fuming with jealousy that Flacco gets to throw to those 3 guys instead of Jeff Smith and Ben Hogan lmao.

Either way, the only game we have a chance to win now is week 17 against New England, and I really would not put it past Belichick to purposely lose that game if Jacksonville finishes with 1 win, and screw us out of T-Law. He's that much of a dick and has a vendetta against this organization for some reason.

Really wish Jacksonville would win one more game.
Click to expand...

Honestly, if the Jets are 0-15 and the Jags 1-14, they should just start James Morgan at that point. Sam's trade stock isn't changing with one great game in week 17 vs the Pats, and if you are that close to the prize, don't even risk it.
 
SnowblindNYR said:
I think he's always been the most talented tackle though.
Click to expand...
I mean he had a shoulder injury that the Jets were stupid to try to have him play through, and a freak chest injury against the Patriots. I'd be more concerned if he were having problems with his knees or ankles or hips. The shoulder thing is apparently behind him. If it becomes a recurring problem, that's one thing, but I don't really see any reason for concern at this time.
 
  • Like
Reactions: JCProdigy and SnowblindNYR
East Coast Bias said:
I know the reports on Thomas well from here. How are Wirfs ans Wills doing? Starting full time?
Click to expand...
Yep, they're both doing really well, too.

What makes me think Becton will be the best is that he was so raw, and despite playing on an absolutely horrendous unit, he still looks completely dominant at times. I think with some competent colleagues and more experience he will be an absolute monster, perennial All-Pro caliber.

EDIT: I see PFF did a re-draft based on things so far, and they had the tackles go Wirfs to the Giants at 4, Becton to LAC at 6, and Wills to CAR with the next pick.
 
Last edited:
  • Like
Reactions: East Coast Bias
Status
Not open for further replies.

Latest posts

Ad

Upcoming events

Ad

Top Bottom