Speculation: 2020 Entry Draft Part II - We have the 10th pick

[Whileee]

I think you are Giese

He's much nicer than I am, and he knows a thing or two about hockey.

 

[nobody imp0rtant]

I like Guhle, too. Similar mold as Trouba, but from Western Canada, or maybe Josh Manson with better offense.

This is what comes to my mind when people speak of similar mold as Trouba.

 

[PhilJets]

I'm excited as i know the Jets will get an exciting (very good) player at pick #10.

To add to already solid core!
Top line center check
Top line goalie check
Elite goal scoring winger check
Top pairing dman check
And more!!!!

 

[JetsUK]

I've had no time to read much about this year's draft but am really enjoying catching up on the knowledge and analysis youse guys are bringing to the thread, and am also looking forward to some additional KillEm videos to further ratchet up the excitement and expectations. Especially in a year like this one, prospect-watching and dreaming is one of the great perks of fandom. Thank you!

 

[ps241]

I think Mercer, Zary, Quinn and Jarvis are all very good and interesting prospects. My sense is that Jarvis is the one that might not bring a different dimension than they already have, because he tends to use speed and space and isn't as hard to play against as the others. Zary and Mercer seem are more likely to play C and they both play a tenacious game without the puck. Quinn also plays a strong 200 foot game with some snort, and can really excel in close quarters and around the net.

I'm still trying to decide what I think about Lundell. The general view is that he has limited offensive upside due to skating and without the dazzle. But I see a lot of intelligence and strong passing and shooting skill. He reminds me a bit of Horvat or Bergeron, and I think he might be a very good facilitator for highly skilled wingers that need a smart okay driver and facilitator. He also plays well in the slot and along the boards, and we need some players that don't play the perimeters as much. If he has the work ethic to improve his foot speed and agility, I think his skating will be fine. He already has decent straight ahead speed, and very good balance.

So, I tend to think arguments could be made for any of these players for the Jets, but right now I might rank them...


Lundell
Quinn
Mercer
Zary
Jarvis

This is based not only on pure talent or position, but also overall fit with our current forward group.

I am still trying to figure out Lundell to and I have finally decided its not coming together for me on him and I have to just give it up and if that is who TNSE take at #10 then I am all in.

 

[Bob E]

If the Jets were to draft Sanderson, could Morrissey not move to his off-side as well. I thought he played the right side off and on in Jr or earlier in his pro career?

In a few years, a top 4 of:

Sanderson-Morrissey
Samberg-Heinola

or

Sanderson-Heinola
Samberg-Morrissey

Could be very good, too.

 

[ps241]

If things stay the same and we have the 10th pick I am hoping Sanderson is there. I get Ryan Suter vibes from watching him.

I just have to say though I really really love Guhle. If Sanderson isn't there I would love a super hard to play against big man with a mean streak. I think he has 40 point NHL potential as well and would be a good foil going up against the big centers of the league

I like Guhle, too. Similar mold as Trouba, but from Western Canada, or maybe Josh Manson with better offense.

Joe and know you and @Daximus watch a boat load of WHL hockey and you are both big fans of Guhle. I have one concern that I discovered in studying Guhle vs Schneider. When I dug in on the Black book reviews this was a bit of a red flag for me on Guhle:

"The main concern is with his hockey sense. He can anticipate the play to the degree necessary to find the first option
when it’s presented clearly in front of him, but he sometimes lacks the poise and processing ability to recognize what
options could be available if he held the puck slightly longer than what seems to be his current comfort zone. Don’t get
us wrong, we like it when a player can immediately assess his defensive partner and use him to swing the puck around
the boards and get it out of harms way during an incoming forecheck. But, in the case of Guhle, he relies too much on
his initial take of a play unfolding. It puts him in a position where he doesn’t always evaluate what could be available to
him if he used his tools to hang onto the puck longer. We want to see defensemen readjusting and extending their
options when time and space is available to them. If you think of an NFL QB going through his reads and too often
jumping on his first read or taking his simple check-down option while passing up better options We’ve seen Guhle
attempt several blind passes when he feels pressure. We’ve seen him have difficulty dynamically adapting to the play
when he’s required to go with an alternate plan to get the puck out of a dangerous area of the ice. If the first option is
open, he often takes it, if he loses his initial option, sometimes he can run into trouble."

Guhle was rated as a 5 in hockey sense whereas Schneider was an 8 in hockey sense and they couldn't stress enough how Schneider reads the play and all options so calmly and quickly. Mark Edwards was mentioning Schneider's cool calm error free style reminds him of Pietrangelo at the same age (obviously Alex played a more offensive role). Black Book were high on Guhle and love the throw back style but I am a bit Leary of how D men transition that don't have "high" hockey IQ's.

 

[Daximus]

I am still trying to figure out Lundell to and I have finally decided its not coming together for me on him and I have to just give it up and if that is who TNSE take at #10 then I am all in.

Yeah if they take him then I am all aboard and hope he becomes the top 6 C we need. I'm just not seeing it right now. I think there is a really solid chance he becomes a damn good 3C. I also think there is a solid chance that given the lack of centers in this draft, his size and his production in Liiga (which I think isn't being properly assessed anymore) he could very well be gone before we pick. Then again I wasn't to sure about Kotkaniemi and he seems to be progressing well. Though I just wasn't sure about him being a top 3 pick, not that he didn't have skill and skating.

 

[Daximus]

Joe and know you and @Daximus watch a boat load of WHL hockey and you are both big fans of Guhle. I have one concern that I discovered in studying Guhle vs Schneider. When I dug in on the Black book reviews this was a bit of a red flag for me on Guhle:

Guhle was rated as a 5 in hockey sense whereas Schneider was an 8 in hockey sense and they couldn't stress enough how Schneider reads the play and all options so calmly and quickly. Mark Edwards was mentioning Schneider's cool calm error free style reminds him of Pietrangelo at the same age (obviously Alex played a more offensive role). Black Book were high on Guhle and love the throw back style but I am a bit Leary of how D men transition that don't have "high" hockey IQ's.

Yeah they are actually two very different players. Where I find Guhle excels is in shutting down the opposition. There was a big reason PA was one of the hardest teams to score against in the entire CHL last year. 2nd least goals against in the entire CHL, 1st being Everett who had a phenomenal goalie in Wolf. His ability to read the offence coming into the zone, his gap control, his timing and ability to read when to step up for a hit and when to back off and use his stick. It's all elite at his current level. There isn't a single defencemen in the WHL currently that processes the game in shutting down opponents as effectively as Guhle, at least IMO.

Where he can struggle is his ability to move the puck out. He often defers to his partners and likes to play the old you take it, no you take it game. It doesn't get him into to much trouble but the breakouts are typically flat when he does it. Which if you don't have dynamic enough forwards that can be an issue. He's also not super inclined to rush the puck but he has speed and some stickhandling ability so he sometimes does attempt it but I think he's just being relied on so much to be responsible that he is unwilling to take risks. He also doesn't join the rush very much which in the modern game some scouts might find to be a downside. But I think that's just the way he is being coached because at lower levels he was one of the more dynamic defencemen with his skating, size and stickhandling I've seen in recent years come into the Dub. It's the reason he went #1 in the WHL draft.

You contrast that with Schneider who joins the rush constantly and is always keeping the other team on their toes and has a great first pass out of the zone. All things that Guhle used to be a lot more dynamic with since joining PA.

I think Schneider is just being given more of a green light to jump up and make those risky decisions that can pay off. Whereas Guhle is being relied on to be Mr. Responsible every night because PA doesn't have much else back there and he is playing so much that he has to be the guy for them. It was definitely odd watching Guhle battle for a puck, get it and have an open lane with no forward passing opps just to swing it back to his partner. He did it quite a few times when I saw him this past season and I just can't see how that isn't a coaching decision to keep him from going to deep into the other teams zone. Especially when you watch him play with OHA where he was constantly pushing the play forward and skating both through and around kids.

 

[ps241]

Yeah they are actually two very different players. Where I find Guhle excels is in shutting down the opposition. There was a big reason PA was one of the hardest teams to score against in the entire CHL last year. 2nd least goals against in the entire CHL, 1st being Everett who had a phenomenal goalie in Wolf. His ability to read the offence coming into the zone, his gap control, his timing and ability to read when to step up for a hit and when to back off and use his stick. It's all elite at his current level. There isn't a single defencemen in the WHL currently that processes the game in shutting down opponents as effectively as Guhle, at least IMO.

Where he can struggle is his ability to move the puck out. He often defers to his partners and likes to play the old you take it, no you take it game. It doesn't get him into to much trouble but the breakouts are typically flat when he does it. Which if you don't have dynamic enough forwards that can be an issue. He's also not super inclined to rush the puck but he has speed and some stickhandling ability so he sometimes does attempt it but I think he's just being relied on so much to be responsible that he is unwilling to take risks. He also doesn't join the rush very much which in the modern game some scouts might find to be a downside. But I think that's just the way he is being coached because at lower levels he was one of the more dynamic defencemen with his skating, size and stickhandling I've seen in recent years come into the Dub. It's the reason he went #1 in the WHL draft.

You contrast that with Schneider who joins the rush constantly and is always keeping the other team on their toes and has a great first pass out of the zone. All things that Guhle used to be a lot more dynamic with since joining PA.

I think Schneider is just being given more of a green light to jump up and make those risky decisions that can pay off. Whereas Guhle is being relied on to be Mr. Responsible every night because PA doesn't have much else back there and he is playing so much that he has to be the guy for them. It was definitely odd watching Guhle battle for a puck, get it and have an open lane with no forward passing opps just to swing it back to his partner. He did it quite a few times when I saw him this past season and I just can't see how that isn't a coaching decision to keep him from going to deep into the other teams zone. Especially when you watch him play with OHA where he was constantly pushing the play forward and skating both through and around kids.

Yea you and Joe spend the time in the rinks so its great to get your takes.

 

[Daximus]

Yea you and Joe spend the time in the rinks so its great to get your takes.

Yeah I'd be okay with either of them really but I am higher on Guhle as I think we need more guys with that snarl and ability to shutdown the opposition. Interestingly enough both of the lefties are able to play that shutdown game and both of the righties are more about the rush.

 

[Whileee]

Yeah they are actually two very different players. Where I find Guhle excels is in shutting down the opposition. There was a big reason PA was one of the hardest teams to score against in the entire CHL last year. 2nd least goals against in the entire CHL, 1st being Everett who had a phenomenal goalie in Wolf. His ability to read the offence coming into the zone, his gap control, his timing and ability to read when to step up for a hit and when to back off and use his stick. It's all elite at his current level. There isn't a single defencemen in the WHL currently that processes the game in shutting down opponents as effectively as Guhle, at least IMO.

Where he can struggle is his ability to move the puck out. He often defers to his partners and likes to play the old you take it, no you take it game. It doesn't get him into to much trouble but the breakouts are typically flat when he does it. Which if you don't have dynamic enough forwards that can be an issue. He's also not super inclined to rush the puck but he has speed and some stickhandling ability so he sometimes does attempt it but I think he's just being relied on so much to be responsible that he is unwilling to take risks. He also doesn't join the rush very much which in the modern game some scouts might find to be a downside. But I think that's just the way he is being coached because at lower levels he was one of the more dynamic defencemen with his skating, size and stickhandling I've seen in recent years come into the Dub. It's the reason he went #1 in the WHL draft.

You contrast that with Schneider who joins the rush constantly and is always keeping the other team on their toes and has a great first pass out of the zone. All things that Guhle used to be a lot more dynamic with since joining PA.

I think Schneider is just being given more of a green light to jump up and make those risky decisions that can pay off. Whereas Guhle is being relied on to be Mr. Responsible every night because PA doesn't have much else back there and he is playing so much that he has to be the guy for them. It was definitely odd watching Guhle battle for a puck, get it and have an open lane with no forward passing opps just to swing it back to his partner. He did it quite a few times when I saw him this past season and I just can't see how that isn't a coaching decision to keep him from going to deep into the other teams zone. Especially when you watch him play with OHA where he was constantly pushing the play forward and skating both through and around kids.

Interesting post. A couple of observations... Coaching can really influence how a junior D plays, so sometimes a lack of creativity is a coaching issue. Second, Schneider is further in his development, in his third full WHL season, whereas Guhle was in his second full WHL season. That extra year of experience might be relevant in relation to puck management and movement.

 

[Daximus]

Interesting post. A couple of observations... Coaching can really influence how a junior D plays, so sometimes a lack of creativity is a coaching issue. Second, Schneider is further in his development, in his third full WHL season, whereas Guhle was in his second full WHL season. That extra year of experience might be relevant in relation to puck management and movement.

Yeah Schneider was a 2016 WHL pick, Guhle a 2017 WHL pick. You can factor that in a little bit but when you compare where Guhle is in his 2nd year compared to where Schneider was it's heavily in Guhle's favour. They aren't massively far apart in age but you have to wonder if Guhle will get that green light next year and what he will be able to do with it.

 

[voyageur]

If things stay the same and we have the 10th pick I am hoping Sanderson is there. I get Ryan Suter vibes from watching him.

I just have to say though I really really love Guhle. If Sanderson isn't there I would love a super hard to play against big man with a mean streak. I think he has 40 point NHL potential as well and would be a good foil going up against the big centers of the league

If Sanderson is that good, I can see the Wild taking him before us. Because they have an aging Ryan Suter, and Brodin is one year removed from UFA. They may need a centre too, but I don't think it would be hard to get Jordan Staal out of Carolina, and that would solve their problems short term. This is Bill Guerin's team, I don't know if Lundell would even be his kind of player.

 

[Daximus]

If Sanderson is that good, I can see the Wild taking him before us. Because they have an aging Ryan Suter, and Brodin is one year removed from UFA. They may need a centre too, but I don't think it would be hard to get Jordan Staal out of Carolina, and that would solve their problems short term. This is Bill Guerin's team, I don't know if Lundell would even be his kind of player.

The wild basically need everything. They have Hunter Jones and Lindberg as their best G prospects with Dubnyk approaching 35 yo, so they could use Askarov for a rebuild. Staal is 36 soon and Koivu is basically done so they could use a center of any kind like Lundell, Zry or perhaps Mercer. They need goal scoring badly so they could just as easily go with Quinn or Jarvis. Their defensive core is aging hard so they could just as easily take Sanderson, Guhle or Schneider.

The Wild are the biggest wild card, pun intended, in the draft really as they are in desperate need of a rebuild but can't seem to decide on which direction they are going. They are a low event, boring team with no real identity other then to play prevent hockey. Which makes them a bubble team that could make the playoffs any given year but unlikely to ever make any noise there. Honestly they need just about every player in the top half of this draft. They have some decent young players in Fiala, Eriksson Ek and Kaprizov (if he signs). And some decent prospects to go with them in Boldy, Addison, McBain, Beckman, Khovanov, Jones and Lindberg. But they definitely need more as they will be forced to rebuild soon, regardless of whether they want to.

 

[ps241]

The wild basically need everything. They have Hunter Jones and Lindberg as their best G prospects with Dubnyk approaching 35 yo, so they could use Askarov for a rebuild. Staal is 36 soon and Koivu is basically done so they could use a center of any kind like Lundell, Zry or perhaps Mercer. They need goal scoring badly so they could just as easily go with Quinn or Jarvis. Their defensive core is aging hard so they could just as easily take Sanderson, Guhle or Schneider.

The Wild are the biggest wild card, pun intended, in the draft really as they are in desperate need of a rebuild but can't seem to decide on which direction they are going. They are a low event, boring team with no real identity other then to play prevent hockey. Which makes them a bubble team that could make the playoffs any given year but unlikely to ever make any noise there. Honestly they need just about every player in the top half of this draft. They have some decent young players in Fiala, Eriksson Ek and Kaprizov (if he signs). And some decent prospects to go with them in Boldy, Addison, McBain, Beckman, Khovanov, Jones and Lindberg. But they definitely need more as they will be forced to rebuild soon, regardless of whether they want to.

The crazy part about this stuff is that allot of team direction can come from ownership like Craig Leipold. Is he still besties with Parise and are those two still thinking they can "go for it" or do they have a mid to long term vision of a rebuild at some point? At the end of the day as fans we want to win cups but owners also try to fill buildings and they are a pretty unique group of humans that can drive team direction in somewhat odd ways.

 

[Whileee]

The wild basically need everything. They have Hunter Jones and Lindberg as their best G prospects with Dubnyk approaching 35 yo, so they could use Askarov for a rebuild. Staal is 36 soon and Koivu is basically done so they could use a center of any kind like Lundell, Zry or perhaps Mercer. They need goal scoring badly so they could just as easily go with Quinn or Jarvis. Their defensive core is aging hard so they could just as easily take Sanderson, Guhle or Schneider.

The Wild are the biggest wild card, pun intended, in the draft really as they are in desperate need of a rebuild but can't seem to decide on which direction they are going. They are a low event, boring team with no real identity other then to play prevent hockey. Which makes them a bubble team that could make the playoffs any given year but unlikely to ever make any noise there. Honestly they need just about every player in the top half of this draft. They have some decent young players in Fiala, Eriksson Ek and Kaprizov (if he signs). And some decent prospects to go with them in Boldy, Addison, McBain, Beckman, Khovanov, Jones and Lindberg. But they definitely need more as they will be forced to rebuild soon, regardless of whether they want to.

Best move for the Wild is probably to trade down and add another 2nd round pick. Their rebuild is far from complete.

 

[Joe Hallenback]

Joe and know you and @Daximus watch a boat load of WHL hockey and you are both big fans of Guhle. I have one concern that I discovered in studying Guhle vs Schneider. When I dug in on the Black book reviews this was a bit of a red flag for me on Guhle:



Guhle was rated as a 5 in hockey sense whereas Schneider was an 8 in hockey sense and they couldn't stress enough how Schneider reads the play and all options so calmly and quickly. Mark Edwards was mentioning Schneider's cool calm error free style reminds him of Pietrangelo at the same age (obviously Alex played a more offensive role). Black Book were high on Guhle and love the throw back style but I am a bit Leary of how D men transition that don't have "high" hockey IQ's.

I watched a lot of both guys over the past couple of seasons. Probably seen Schneider live 30 times in 3 years and Guhle 12 times. I think the hockey sense thing is fairly accurate the only problem is Schnieder has that extra year in the league that gives him a better feeling for it. I thought Guhle as the year went along got better and better. He is physical dominant(to be fair both guys are) but it is going to be interesting to see who is better next year. They might end up being paired for the World Juniors too

 

[Joe Hallenback]

The Wild fans want a goal scorer, I am unsure as to what Bill Guerin plans to do. He seems like he wants to win and win now but I just don't see them doing that. They gave a massive contract to Zuccarello(now that is a boat anchor not Wheeler's contract) and they still have Parise's contract(oh wait that is another boat anchor) but at least he is somewhat capable still. They got 13 points from Rask for 4 million, an aged Koivu, luckily for them Fiala turned to be something. They still have a very solid top 4 D but it is getting older and Dubnyk seems to be done.

There prospect pool is ok but they need to hope Kaprizov is the real deal and not a pretender. I get what Guerin is saying maybe he gives them the start of next season and pulls the plug if they are out and dump guys and rebuild.

 

[Daximus]

Best move for the Wild is probably to trade down and add another 2nd round pick. Their rebuild is far from complete.

If I was the GM of the Wild and had the information, that I as a commoner am not privy to, I would take Askarov if I thought he was the real deal. Start building from the net out, look to move Staal, Zuc, Spurgeon, Dubnyk and anyone else that I could. They are in so much trouble with those contracts it would be a miracle if they could move them and no matter what they do they are unlikely to ever be a contender.

Staal's deal is up next year and there is bound to be a team somewhere that would take him on for futures for a Cup run.

Parise is signed for 5 more years taking him to 41 years old @ $7.5 mil, so basically unmovable.

Zuc is signed for 4 more years at $6mil taking him to 36 yo, not completely unmovable but will be hard.

Suter is signed for 5 more years @ 7.5mil taking him to 40 yo. Not unmovable but again will be tough.

Spurgeon is sgined for 7 more years @ 7.5mil taking him to 37 yo.

I mean damn... they really screwed the pooch on those contracts.

 

[Daximus]

The Wild fans want a goal scorer, I am unsure as to what Bill Guerin plans to do. He seems like he wants to win and win now but I just don't see them doing that. They gave a massive contract to Zuccarello(now that is a boat anchor not Wheeler's contract) and they still have Parise's contract(oh wait that is another boat anchor) but at least he is somewhat capable still. They got 13 points from Rask for 4 million, an aged Koivu, luckily for them Fiala turned to be something. They still have a very solid top 4 D but it is getting older and Dubnyk seems to be done.

There prospect pool is ok but they need to hope Kaprizov is the real deal and not a pretender. I get what Guerin is saying maybe he gives them the start of next season and pulls the plug if they are out and dump guys and rebuild.

It's going to be hard as well to move anyone not named Dubnyk and Staal. Those albatross contracts are damn hard to move and the longer they wait they harder they are to move as you end up having to give up assets to move them.

 

[ps241]

I watched a lot of both guys over the past couple of seasons. Probably seen Schneider live 30 times in 3 years and Guhle 12 times. I think the hockey sense thing is fairly accurate the only problem is Schnieder has that extra year in the league that gives him a better feeling for it. I thought Guhle as the year went along got better and better. He is physical dominant(to be fair both guys are) but it is going to be interesting to see who is better next year. They might end up being paired for the World Juniors too

Guhle seems to have more of a natural physicality to his game. One of the challenges moving to the NHL of coarse is you are up against men and its a bit harder to be punishing at that level. Kaden seems to be a bit lean so hopefully he fills out.

Mark Edwards mentioned he was curious so he asked 8 NHL scouts who they had ahead of whom and he said 5 Scouts had Schneider ahead of Guhle and 3 scouts had Guhle ahead of Schneider. Seems like it could very much come down to team preference. Having either Guhle or Schneider as well as Samberg in our top 4 certainly adds the size and grit to the back end fans are looking for.

 

[ps241]

If I was the GM of the Wild and had the information, that I as a commoner am not privy to, I would take Askarov if I thought he was the real deal. Start building from the net out, look to move Staal, Zuc, Spurgeon, Dubnyk and anyone else that I could. They are in so much trouble with those contracts it would be a miracle if they could move them and no matter what they do they are unlikely to ever be a contender.

Staal's deal is up next year and there is bound to be a team somewhere that would take him on for futures for a Cup run.

Parise is signed for 5 more years taking him to 41 years old @ $7.5 mil, so basically unmovable.

Zuc is signed for 4 more years at $6mil taking him to 36 yo, not completely unmovable but will be hard.

Suter is signed for 5 more years @ 7.5mil taking him to 40 yo. Not unmovable but again will be tough.

Spurgeon is sgined for 7 more years @ 7.5mil taking him to 37 yo.

I mean damn... they really screwed the pooch on those contracts.

I have some concerns about Blake's deal but he has 4 more years left on the deal which will take him to 37. Now Blake is still a really good hockey player (even if he is not the prime Wheeler). That is one vet on a potentially bad deal. Jesus look at the wild with 4 guys on expensive deals that take them up to or past Blake's age arc on the life of his deal.

 

[Neuf]

The Wild is who teams should have nightmares of becoming. Solid first round team for almost a decade and I don't think anyone ever saw them as cup contenders in that span. I mean, playoffs are awesome, but at some point mediocrity just stinks. A rebuild would do them good.

 

[ps241]

The Wild is who teams should have nightmares of becoming. Solid first round team for almost a decade and I don't think anyone ever saw them as cup contenders in that span. I mean, playoffs are awesome, but at some point mediocrity just stinks. A rebuild would do them good.

It also displays the potential downside of being an attractive market for free agents. That is not always a good thing.