Draft 2020 Draft & Undrafted Free Agent Thread: Part VII

[Leetch3]

In my model the difference between 15 & 35 is more than double: you go from a probable 2nd liner to a low end 3rd/4th liner.

without a model the difference between 15 & 30 is double

 

[aufheben]

Everyone’s been talking about the best picks @ #22OA, what about the worst?

 

[Irishguy42]

Everyone’s been talking about the best picks @ #22OA, what about the worst?

*googles Top 150 rankings for this draft and scrolls allllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllll the way down on top link*

 

[aufheben]

*googles Top 150 rankings for this draft and scrolls allllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllll the way down on top link*

You know what I mean lol

 

[Leetch3]

Everyone’s been talking about the best picks @ #22OA, what about the worst?

1996 NY Rangers Jeff Brown lol

 

[Irishguy42]

You know what I mean lol

Carp had Foerster in the mock The Athletic had. That wouldn't be great.

I think Neighbours/Foerster/Brisson would be the realm of "worst case scenario" for 22.

I don't think Askarov is the right pick at 22, despite how good he is.

 

[NYSPORTS]

In my model the difference between 15 & 35 is more than double: you go from a probable 2nd liner to a low end 3rd/4th liner.

if your model for this draft is equal to others than i don’t make the trade. I’ve read elsewhere the difference in this draft isn’t much if anything.

 

[Mikos87]

A bad pick is a low upside pick or an unnecessary gamble. You trade down and out of the slot and stack up picks in the 30-70 range and get a bunch of kicks at the can. I am not liking these final rankings or the aggregate ones. There are guys that I thought would be in the 3rd early in the year that are not going to be there by any stretch. You can get a lot of good skaters who will play 3-5 years in depth roles this year.

I heard about this class back in 2014 after a buddy of mine attended a youth tourney. Word at the time was that class played at a faster pace than the prior year. Lots of good international players to be picked from. Hockey in central Europe is seeing the Kreuger effect, and you have kids whoa are willing to take untraditional paths in Europe as well.

You also have a disproportionate amount of late birthdays this year. This and, the higher quality of OHLers this year and in the Q, you have a net effect of some really good skaters available. If you get Lafreniere, a playmaking center, a really good grinder with a value pick, and you take nothing but defensemen. I will consider this a very good draft.

But you will need more picks to pull that off. If the Rangers load up this draft, as a build up from 2018, the organizational depth, and incoming ELCs all but assure a fairly long window.

 

[Oscar Lindberg]

They would have to really reach for me to hate the pick at 22. Like ranked in the third round reach

But 1st rounds guys I wouldn’t necessarily be thrilled with? Lapierre or Perrault come to mind.

I can understand the reasoning behind taking Lapierre, and ultimately I wouldn’t grumble too much if he’s the pick because of Lafreniere

But multiple concussions and/or neck issues before even coming into the league is pretty much a non-starter for me.

If he’s the guy so be it, but I wouldn’t be mad if he’s off the board when they come up at 22

 

[egelband]

They would have to really reach for me to hate the pick at 22. Like ranked in the third round reach

But 1st rounds guys I wouldn’t necessarily be thrilled with? Lapierre or Perrault come to mind.

I can understand the reasoning behind taking Lapierre, and ultimately I wouldn’t grumble too much if he’s the pick because of Lafreniere

But multiple concussions and/or neck issues before even coming into the league is pretty much a non-starter for me.

If he’s the guy so be it, but I wouldn’t be mad if he’s off the board when they come up at 22

Yeah. A pick is really horrible when it’s clear the player would be available later. Like Lindbom. I mean, maybe the Rangers had some intelligence indicating otherwise. But even were that the case, who cares. Let someone else reach.

 

[aufheben]

Carp had Foerster in the mock The Athletic had. That wouldn't be great.

I think Neighbours/Foerster/Brisson would be the realm of "worst case scenario" for 22.

I don't think Askarov is the right pick at 22, despite how good he is.

Thats actually what made me ask.

 

[Oscar Lindberg]

Yeah. A pick is really horrible when it’s clear the player would be available later. Like Lindbom. I mean, maybe the Rangers had some intelligence indicating otherwise. But even were that the case, who cares. Let someone else reach.

That pick is indefensible. It sucked the air out of the rest of the day if I’m being honest.

Benoit Allaire could tell me to my face that he thought it was a good pick and I’d still wouldn’t believe him

You can’t reach like that on a goaltender, especially when there was a boatload of first round talent still sitting there. That second day was brutal, just multiple bad picks after doing a solid job in the first round

 

[egelband]

That pick is indefensible. It sucked the air out of the rest of the day if I’m being honest.

Benoit Allaire could tell me to my face that he thought it was a good pick and I’d still wouldn’t believe him

You can’t reach like that on a goaltender, especially when there was a boatload of first round talent still sitting there. That second day was brutal, just multiple bad picks after doing a solid job in the first round

Yep. And it was clear immediately. This isn’t 20-20 hindsight.

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

Carp had Foerster in the mock The Athletic had. That wouldn't be great.

I think Neighbours/Foerster/Brisson would be the realm of "worst case scenario" for 22.

I don't think Askarov is the right pick at 22, despite how good he is.

Brisson wouldn't be terrible at 22 IMO. He's got a real nice package of skills and smarts. Wouldn't be my choice, but we could do far worse.

It's going to be hard for them to piss me off with that pick with Laf already in the bag. Even if they go off the board a bit.

No inside knowledge outside of what @Edge has posted here, but I do believe that Greig is their guy at 22 if they keep the pick and he hasn't been selected.

 

[TheWhiskeyThief]

Carp had Foerster in the mock The Athletic had. That wouldn't be great.

I think Neighbours/Foerster/Brisson would be the realm of "worst case scenario" for 22.

I don't think Askarov is the right pick at 22, despite how good he is.

My model has Foerster 6th(doesn’t account for skating) so to get him at 22 is fine. Brisson at 17 so it works, even if not an optimal fit.

I doubt Askarov makes it past 11.

 

[Joey Bones]

Everyone’s been talking about the best picks @ #22OA, what about the worst?

There's honestly not many bad options. I would say "over-reaching" for someone because they already have No. 1 is the absolute worst. Over gambling is not the way to go. Also, trading the pick for cap casualty is awful asset management, IMO.

Edit: After reevaluating the consensus, Foerster would be a bad pick at No. 22.

 

[Mikos87]

Yeah. A pick is really horrible when it’s clear the player would be available later. Like Lindbom. I mean, maybe the Rangers had some intelligence indicating otherwise. But even were that the case, who cares. Let someone else reach.

They don’t have a 2nd this year to do that. I think you will see player for player deals due to $$ and teams can offset that with picks.

Saving a team some $$ can and should by a 2nd rounder. Going rate for a 2nd was around $2M. You can’t trade cash considerations but you can trade salaries. Maybe there is something there that can be done.

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

Everyone’s been talking about the best picks @ #22OA, what about the worst?

Connor Zary
Dylan Holloway
Jacob Perreault
Justin Barron

And I am going back and forth on the 2 German kids. I'm hesitant to put too much emphasis on their production in DEL since it's a weaker league

 

[Leetch3]

Connor Zary
Dylan Holloway
Jacob Perreault
Justin Barron

And I am going back and forth on the 2 German kids. I'm hesitant to put too much emphasis on their production in DEL since it's a weaker league

holloway wouldn't be my top choice but depending on how things play out, I wouldn't consider him a bad pick. I think he's become underrated a bit because we started looking at him in the 10-15 range were he would have been a bad pick.

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

holloway wouldn't be my top choice but depending on how things play out, I wouldn't consider him a bad pick. I think he's become underrated a bit because we started looking at him in the 10-15 range were he would have been a bad pick.

Let's put it this way. The 6 guys I mentioned are prospects that would leave me underwhelmed if they are the pick at 22. Not necesarily worst picks. In that range, there aren't any clear red flags IMO. Anyone ranked in the 3rd or lower would be a bad pick at 22

 

[Ghost of jas]

holloway wouldn't be my top choice but depending on how things play out, I wouldn't consider him a bad pick. I think he's become underrated a bit because we started looking at him in the 10-15 range were he would have been a bad pick.

Actually, Barron is the only player listed there that I’d have a problem with as a selection.

 

[Leetch3]

Let's put it this way. The 6 guys I mentioned are prospects that would leave me underwhelmed if they are the pick at 22. Not necesarily worst picks. In that range, there aren't any clear red flags IMO. Anyone ranked in the 3rd or lower would be a bad pick at 22

who has holloway ranked in the 3rd? everything i've seen says he will be gone before 22.

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

who has holloway ranked in the 3rd? everything i've seen says he will be gone before 22.

I didn't say that. I said Holloway would leave me underwhelmed. It's not necessarily a bad pick.

Bad picks are guys ranked in the 3rd round.

 

[Leetch3]

I didn't say that. I said Holloway would leave me underwhelmed. It's not necessarily a bad pick.

Bad picks are guys ranked in the 3rd round.

sorry I misunderstood that those were unconnected thoughts. I agree with you on that then lol

 

[Edge]

Actually, Barron is the only player listed there that I’d have a problem with as a selection.

It's funny becuase that's more or less where I'm at.

I feel like Barron is the only one where I really don't want him as the pick there.

Most everyone else I can more or less by okay with, even if they aren't among my preferred targets.