Rumor: 2020-21 Trade Rumours and FA Part VII: Post-Trade Deadline

[PAZ]

@Balthazar @Buster Dalrymple McDavid had a similar situation where the choice was between surgery and an unconventional rehab for his knee. However, the Oilers let him make the decision after receiving advice and opinions from experts in the field. IMO, that's how it should be. A player needs to get medical advice from experts, but they should ultimately get the choice (as long as it's still backed by medical experts).

“I have to make this crazy decision that is either going to make or break (how) 20 years of my life plays out, how the rest of my life plays out,” McDavid, who suffered the injury crashing into a goal post, says in the documentary.
“I've got to make this decision at 22 and I've to make it in 24 hours.”
McDavid says surgery already was scheduled before he made the call not to go under the knife.

Documentary showcases Connor McDavid's unique rehab, call to avoid surgery

 

[henchman21]

Seth Jones said Monday, “I really have to take a step back and think about what I want.”

That's not good news for ther Jackets is it?

Eichel and Jones could be traded in the offseason...that's something.

Jones' decision there will determine how Columbus operates. If he wants to go, then it is time to tear it all down.

 

[henchman21]

@Balthazar @Buster Dalrymple McDavid had a similar situation where the choice was between surgery and an unconventional rehab for his knee. However, the Oilers let him make the decision after receiving advice and opinions from experts in the field. IMO, that's how it should be. A player needs to get medical advice from experts, but they should ultimately get the choice (as long as it's still backed by medical experts).



Documentary showcases Connor McDavid's unique rehab, call to avoid surgery

In theory I agree... but the way this works in practice makes it difficult for orgs to sign off on. Especially if they are looking at trading Eichel and they have to consider how teams would respond to Eichel having this surgery. I get why they are skeptical, but IMO they should let Eichel have that surgery... it is invasive and new, but results are incredibly promising even for athletes. (on the Avs side of this, they should be pushing EJ to have this surgery done on his spine with how much of a mess it is... could save his career)

 

[BaconNater]

Maybe Columbus rids of Jones, Werenski, Laine and Elvis and then rebirths from all the draft picks to become the next Ottawa

 

[PAZ]

In theory I agree... but the way this works in practice makes it difficult for orgs to sign off on. Especially if they are looking at trading Eichel and they have to consider how teams would respond to Eichel having this surgery. I get why they are skeptical, but IMO they should let Eichel have that surgery... it is invasive and new, but results are incredibly promising even for athletes. (on the Avs side of this, they should be pushing EJ to have this surgery done on his spine with how much of a mess it is... could save his career)

At this point I agree that teams may be skeptical so they'd be tempted to delay the surgery, but it sounds like it got to this point because Buffalo refused to let him get the surgery in this first place. It also sounds like Eichel is hell-bent on getting this surgery, and whatever team that is trading for him will be aware of that.

 

[Pokecheque]

Jones' decision there will determine how Columbus operates. If he wants to go, then it is time to tear it all down.

If his numbers this year are any indication, Jarmo should bail RIGHT NOW and get a good return for him.

Jones had a thoroughly rotten year and it sure looks like it's been a pretty precipitous decline since 2017. I'd be very concerned about building around him going forward. Not sure what the problem is there, whether it's Tortorella, just an overall malaise in Lumbus, or his season-ending injury from the year before still hampering him.

Even at his "peak" he wasn't super-elite or anything either.

Jarmo has the opportunity to really blow it up and start over properly for the first time, something no other CBJ GM has had since MacLean up and screwed everything up after one better-than-expected inaugural season. He should take it.

 

[Gatorbait19]

Seth Jones said Monday, “I really have to take a step back and think about what I want.”

That's not good news for ther Jackets is it?

Eichel and Jones could be traded in the offseason...that's something.

If only this could’ve been predicted! The franchise has been barreling towards this cliff for years now and made all the wrong decisions along the way.

Now here we are in 2021 with the team’s best player basically saying he’s leaving, and the other best player (Laine), who’s a square peg in a round hole and who’s value declines more and more each day.

 

[Gatorbait19]

Jones' decision there will determine how Columbus operates. If he wants to go, then it is time to tear it all down.

They’ve got no choice but to tear it down - with or without Jones. They’re already late to the party on that. The only remaining question is how long they want the rebuild to take. They can try to speed it up by moving their valuable assets (Jones, Laine, etc) that won’t help them win any time soon, or they could just continue to fritter away assets as they have and prolong it.

 

[henchman21]

If his numbers this year are any indication, Jarmo should bail RIGHT NOW and get a good return for him.

Jones had a thoroughly rotten year and it sure looks like it's been a pretty precipitous decline since 2017. I'd be very concerned about building around him going forward. Not sure what the problem is there, whether it's Tortorella, just an overall malaise in Lumbus, or his season-ending injury from the year before still hampering him.

Even at his "peak" he wasn't super-elite or anything either.

Jarmo has the opportunity to really blow it up and start over properly for the first time, something no other CBJ GM has had since MacLean up and screwed everything up after one better-than-expected inaugural season. He should take it.

Always amazes me how much people underrate Jones. He's had shortened seasons the past two years (injuries and shortened last year, just shortened this year), but he's a 40+ point guy without top PP time on a bad offensive team and is top 10 defensively. He's a #1 without a doubt.

They’ve got no choice but to tear it down - with or without Jones. They’re already late to the party on that. The only remaining question is how long they want the rebuild to take. They can try to speed it up by moving their valuable assets (Jones, Laine, etc) that won’t help them win any time soon, or they could just continue to fritter away assets as they have and prolong it.

With Jones they still have 2 #1 level defensemen with a legit top 4 guy. Great depth on the wings and a great goalie to bring in. They lack a 1C very badly right now and 2C is still a question if Roslovic can hold the spot. The draft could provide that #1C quickly. Torts submarined the season, but they are much better team than they showed this year. Under new coaching and if Jones is still there, they have a really solid base to build on.

 

[Belgican]

Would love Jones, but we can’t afford him, too bad a good team will get him though

 

[Pokecheque]

Always amazes me how much people underrate Jones. He's had shortened seasons the past two years (injuries and shortened last year, just shortened this year), but he's a 40+ point guy without top PP time on a bad offensive team and is top 10 defensively. He's a #1 without a doubt.

He most assuredly was not top-1o defensively this year. Wasn't last year either.

 

[Pokecheque]

Lumbus doesn't HAVE to blow it up, but if they want a shot at a gamebreaking talent the likes of which they've never had before, then they should seriously consider a full-blown rebuild, which by the way has never taken place. Of course getting that gamebreaker is one part tanking and one part dumb luck, so...it's not necessarily a recipe for success.

Of course they might get that gamebreaker in this year's draft, but somehow I doubt it. I just think there's some nice pieces there, but just not enough to make a legit contender, even with a drafting master like Jarmo at the helm.

At the very least, I think Lumbus will finally fix their power play. Of all the various failures under Torts's regime, the worst by far was his stubborn, outright refusal to ice a competent power play. And the pieces were there to make a really good one.

 

[AllAboutAvs]

I can certainly see why a team would want to have control on the player's health but in this case it's really weird that Eichel the GM cannot make the decision on his own health.

 

[Chiarelli]

Duchene ruined CBJ

 

[Hasbro]

If his numbers this year are any indication, Jarmo should bail RIGHT NOW and get a good return for him.

Jones had a thoroughly rotten year and it sure looks like it's been a pretty precipitous decline since 2017. I'd be very concerned about building around him going forward. Not sure what the problem is there, whether it's Tortorella, just an overall malaise in Lumbus, or his season-ending injury from the year before still hampering him.

Even at his "peak" he wasn't super-elite or anything either.

Jarmo has the opportunity to really blow it up and start over properly for the first time, something no other CBJ GM has had since MacLean up and screwed everything up after one better-than-expected inaugural season. He should take it.

6’4” blindness kicks in.

 

[henchman21]

He most assuredly was not top-1o defensively this year. Wasn't last year either. View attachment 433148

Columbus is a poor stats team in general and I don't think that is the proper evaluation of good or bad defensively.

 

[Pokecheque]

Columbus is a poor stats team in general and I don't think that is the proper evaluation of good or bad defensively.

It's not the end-all-be-all of a player's worth but when the numbers are that skewed you have to consider them, especially considering this wasn't some one-off fluke you could attribute to pandemic-related chaos or other reasons, this is the nadir of a steady decline in his underlying numbers the last 3-4 years. This is not Buffalo where everything was SO outta whack you couldn't possibly evaluate players properly. Something is very much off with Jones--maybe he can rebound but don't tell me with numbers that completely f***ed up that he's top-10 defensively. It simply isn't true.

 

[henchman21]

It's not the end-all-be-all of a player's worth but when the numbers are that skewed you have to consider them, especially considering this wasn't some one-off fluke you could attribute to pandemic-related chaos or other reasons, this is the nadir of a steady decline in his underlying numbers the last 3-4 years. This is not Buffalo where everything was SO outta whack you couldn't possibly evaluate players properly. Something is very much off with Jones--maybe he can rebound but don't tell me with numbers that completely f***ed up that he's top-10 defensively. It simply isn't true.

You know Columbus is just as bad stats wise as Buffalo, right?

 

[Pokecheque]

You know Columbus is just as bad stats wise as Buffalo, right?

Not quite as bad but close, yes. There are five teams between them and Buffalo in terms of goals given up (and I didn't know there was one team actually worse than Buffalo--Philly).

And I'll reiterate that it isn't just this year, it just so happens that this year he just completely ran aground (as did the Jackets obviously), but there's been a steep decline in the previous seasons.

Look I'm not saying he sucks and must absolutely be pitched overboard before it's too late, but I'd be very wary of signing him to a megadeal right now. This is prime opportunity for Jarmo to start over and rebuild properly. He should take it, and I'll just say if he chooses not to, he'll be fired in the next year or so and they'll likely end up having to do it anyway.

 

[henchman21]

Not quite as bad but close, yes. There are five teams between them and Buffalo in terms of goals given up (and I didn't know there was one team actually worse than Buffalo--Philly).

And I'll reiterate that it isn't just this year, it just so happens that this year he just completely ran aground (as did the Jackets obviously), but there's been a steep decline in the previous seasons.

Look I'm not saying he sucks and must absolutely be pitched overboard before it's too late, but I'd be very wary of signing him to a megadeal right now. This is prime opportunity for Jarmo to start over and rebuild properly. He should take it, and I'll just say if he chooses not to, he'll be fired in the next year or so and they'll likely end up having to do it anyway.

Many advanced stats they are similar or within a few places... been like this for a few years now too.

Jones has been a target of the analytics community for a few years now. They'll show numbers that are average or just slightly above or below and point right to them as to why he's overrated. To me, this is just a big failing on analytics vs eye test. Jones' defense was actually some of his strongest of his career in 19-20. His xGA/60 was the lowest of his Columbus career. High danger chances against were the least. His zone exit numbers were strong. His takeaway rate, while not his best, was still high. When you compare the pure defensive stats the numbers are not dramatically different... many were actually better in 19-20. This season is more like his previous years in a lot of stats. What changed from 18-19 to 19-20 though? Columbus lost a crap ton of offense and transition ability in Panarin. The second he leaves, the team gets significantly worse offensively and they have gotten pinned in their own zone more. This year, they also lose PLD meaning centers that were already a line too high elsewhere are 2 lines too high. The offense has dried up in Columbus due to not having any first line talent (the one they have was benched a lot). This year they were 2.39 goals per game. Last year they were 2.57. Columbus averaged 3 per game the prior 3 seasons. The team offense simply dried up in Columbus and that is his 'regression.'

Eye test with Jones is he is one of the single best defensemen at utilizing a full skill set (body, skating, stick, and IQ) to break up plays and start a transition. He has every tool to use defensively and uses them at a high level. Torts' system is naturally more passive with anticipating breaking up plays with aggressive stick work. A coach that utilizes that skill will show another level in Jones. Also, if Jones gets on a team with a good forward or two in transition that he plays with consistently, he's going to have a large upward tick on his offensive numbers. He's not likely to be a #1PP guy on a strong team, so we aren't likely to see 20+ PP points... but 10 and then 35+ EV.

If Jones gets moved, he's going 'reemerge' as a top 5 defensemen in the league next year. If he sticks with Columbus, the moves they make will determine how he is looked at. If they struggle again, somebody will be getting a steal on the free agent market.

 

[Balthazar]

CBJ won't get a young 1C for Jones (and his 1 year left) and last time I checked there was no projected 1C in the upcoming draft.

They'll have to build around Werenski and Laine..and without a legit top 6 center.

They are pretty screwed.

 

[Lonewolfe2015]

Would love Jones, but we can’t afford him, too bad a good team will get him though

It could probably be done. It would have to be something the team rallies around though. Landy and Makar both taking fair deals. JTC and Graves gone at expansion. Could see Seattle valuing both quite a bit.

I doubt we would get to keep one of Byram or Newhook though.

 

[Pokecheque]

Many advanced stats they are similar or within a few places... been like this for a few years now too.

Jones has been a target of the analytics community for a few years now. They'll show numbers that are average or just slightly above or below and point right to them as to why he's overrated. To me, this is just a big failing on analytics vs eye test. Jones' defense was actually some of his strongest of his career in 19-20. His xGA/60 was the lowest of his Columbus career. High danger chances against were the least. His zone exit numbers were strong. His takeaway rate, while not his best, was still high. When you compare the pure defensive stats the numbers are not dramatically different... many were actually better in 19-20. This season is more like his previous years in a lot of stats. What changed from 18-19 to 19-20 though? Columbus lost a crap ton of offense and transition ability in Panarin. The second he leaves, the team gets significantly worse offensively and they have gotten pinned in their own zone more. This year, they also lose PLD meaning centers that were already a line too high elsewhere are 2 lines too high. The offense has dried up in Columbus due to not having any first line talent (the one they have was benched a lot). This year they were 2.39 goals per game. Last year they were 2.57. Columbus averaged 3 per game the prior 3 seasons. The team offense simply dried up in Columbus and that is his 'regression.'

Eye test with Jones is he is one of the single best defensemen at utilizing a full skill set (body, skating, stick, and IQ) to break up plays and start a transition. He has every tool to use defensively and uses them at a high level. Torts' system is naturally more passive with anticipating breaking up plays with aggressive stick work. A coach that utilizes that skill will show another level in Jones. Also, if Jones gets on a team with a good forward or two in transition that he plays with consistently, he's going to have a large upward tick on his offensive numbers. He's not likely to be a #1PP guy on a strong team, so we aren't likely to see 20+ PP points... but 10 and then 35+ EV.

If Jones gets moved, he's going 'reemerge' as a top 5 defensemen in the league next year. If he sticks with Columbus, the moves they make will determine how he is looked at. If they struggle again, somebody will be getting a steal on the free agent market.

We'll see, no doubt the bottom finally dropped out in Lumbus. Ironically the analytics community was actually quite complimentary of Erik Johnson over the years despite the fact that he never really posted great play-driving numbers. Time will tell with Jones, I certainly hope he rebounds. I'm not rooting against him by any means...he's technically a Coloradan, at least by my very generous standards.

Side note: Friedman talks about Tortorella and Lumbus in a recent 31 Thoughts pod. Basically said that Torts was tired, that he was done and likely wanted out, and he speculated that veteran players came to him and persuaded him to go one more year. And in hindsight, that was a mistake. I've maintained that Torts and the Jackets should've parted ways a year earlier than they did. I don't think it would've necessarily saved the relationship with Dubois but I think a lot of the ugliness that went down this season could've been avoided. Who knows...it's a moot point now.

 

[Balthazar]

We'll see, no doubt the bottom finally dropped out in Lumbus. Ironically the analytics community was actually quite complimentary of Erik Johnson over the years despite the fact that he never really posted great play-driving numbers. Time will tell with Jones, I certainly hope he rebounds. I'm not rooting against him by any means...he's technically a Coloradan, at least by my very generous standards.

Side note: Friedman talks about Tortorella and Lumbus in a recent 31 Thoughts pod. Basically said that Torts was tired, that he was done and likely wanted out, and he speculated that veteran players came to him and persuaded him to go one more year. And in hindsight, that was a mistake. I've maintained that Torts and the Jackets should've parted ways a year earlier than they did. I don't think it would've necessarily saved the relationship with Dubois but I think a lot of the ugliness that went down this season could've been avoided. Who knows...it's a moot point now.

Yea Friedman said that in the end everyone agrees it was one year too many. That's on Jarmo though.

 

[Pokecheque]

CBJ won't get a young 1C for Jones (and his 1 year left) and last time I checked there was no projected 1C in the upcoming draft.

They'll have to build around Werenski and Laine..and without a legit top 6 center.

They are pretty screwed.

Plenty of ways you can get a 1C, they're not screwed if one isn't necessarily available (and yes there are...c'mon) in the draft.

You always seem to imply there's like, one way to build a hockey team. That isn't the case. And frankly, it's not the end of the world if you don't have a lottery pick center. I mean, FFS, look at Vegas getting the job done with Chandler Stephenson and William Karlsson.