Prospect Info: 2020-21 Prospects Poll - Results on Post 2

[emptyNedder]

1 - Pyotr Kochetkov
2 - Alex Nedeljkovic
3 - Eetu Makiniemi
4 - Jack LaFontaine
5 - Jake Kucharski

Am I missing something on Kochetkov? He hasn't played in almost two months and is 0-3-0. Last season his statistics had him as the 4th best goalie on the two teams where he played 5+ games.

 

[GoldiFox]

Am I missing something on Kochetkov? He hasn't played in almost two months and is 0-3-0. Last season his statistics had him as the 4th best goalie on the two teams where he played 5+ games.

It's a race to the bottom with Nedeljkovic looking solidly AAAA and Makiniemi posting a sub-0.900 SV% this year in 7 games.

 

[GoldiFox]

I had Jarvis at #1 and I think he is a couple tiers higher than the next group of Rees, Bean, Suzuki, and Gunler. Jarvis has a sublime skillset and the motor to be a 1st line RW.

Rees was my #2, same as last year I believe. Top-6 agitators with skill to match tenacity are unicorns. Decent chance Rees never develops into that piece but if he does he would be one of a handful in the entire NHL. I'd take Matthew Tkachuk over Mitch Marner any day.

I see all of Rees, Suzuki, Bean, Bokk, and Gunler as more boom-or-bust pieces. If one of them becomes an impact player the Canes will be in good shape. I have little faith in Bean ever getting a chance with the Canes after watching Fleury's path.

 

[DaveG]

It's a race to the bottom with Nedeljkovic looking solidly AAAA and Makiniemi posting a sub-0.900 SV% this year in 7 games.

This. Should show how much "faith" I have on our situation long term at the position if I still have Kochetkov at 1

 

[CandyCanes]

Still can’t believe we didn’t grab one goalie in this years draft, with how our goaltending pipeline looks currently...

 

[tarheelhockey]

At the rate we’re going, our best future goalie is a guy who doesn’t even work for us.

 

[tarheelhockey]

One thing I found in tabulating this, we do a hell of a job of coming to tiers in lists with our group

Just for fun, this is what it looks like if we list them in tiers, and then alphabetically (so as to ignore the hair-splitting within each tier):

A-level prospects
D Jake Bean
C Seth Jarvis

B-level prospects
W Dominik Bokk
C Morgan Geekie
C Jamieson Rees
C Ryan Suzuki

C-level prospects
C Jack Drury
W Noel Gunler
D Anttoni Honka
D Joey Keane
C Vasiliy Ponomaryov
W Patrik Puistola
D Jesper Sellgren

D-level prospects
C Clark Bishop
C David Cotton
D Dominick Fensore
D Oliwer Kaski
C Steven Lorentz
C Stelio Mattheos
D Roland McKeown
C Blake Murray
D Alexander "Boom" Nikishin
W Zion Nybeck
W Alexander Pashin
D Ronan Seeley
W Tuukka Tieksola

 

[tarheelhockey]

And recognizing that a lot of this is pretty arbitrary, but in the interests of having fun with the data, here's our asset-management efficiency within each tier:

A-level
2 1st round picks (Bean, Jarvis)
0 2nd round picks
0 3rd round picks
0 4th round picks
0 5th round picks
0 6th round picks
0 7th round picks

B-level
1 1st round pick (Suzuki)
1 2nd round pick (Rees)
1 3rd round pick (Geekie)
0 4th round picks
0 5th round picks
0 6th round picks
0 7th round picks
1 trade acquisition (Bokk)

C-level
0 1st round picks
3 2nd round picks (Drury, Gunler, Ponomarev)
2 3rd round picks (Honka, Puistola)
0 4th round picks
0 5th round picks
1 6th round pick (Sellgren)
0 7th round picks
1 trade acquisition (Keane)

D-level
0 1st round picks
0 2nd round picks
3 3rd round picks (Fensore, Mattheos, Nikishin)
2 4th round picks (Nybeck, Tieksola)
1 5th round pick (Bishop)
2 6th round picks (David Cotton, Murray)
3 7th round picks (Lorentz, Pashin, Seeley)
2 trade acquisitions (Kaski, McKeown)

Didn't make the list
0 1st round picks
0 2nd round picks
0 3rd round picks
2 4th round picks (Killinen, Webber)
2 5th round picks (Slepets, Smallman)
2 6th round picks (Mercuri, Wall)
2 7th round picks (Rasanen, Rizzo)
1 trade acquisition (Bracco)
2 FA signings (Jason Cotton, Rempal)

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

Just for fun, this is what it looks like if we list them in tiers, and then alphabetically (so as to ignore the hair-splitting within each tier):

A-level prospects
D Jake Bean
C Seth Jarvis

B-level prospects
W Dominik Bokk
C Morgan Geekie
C Jamieson Rees
C Ryan Suzuki

C-level prospects
C Jack Drury
W Noel Gunler
D Anttoni Honka
D Joey Keane
C Vasiliy Ponomaryov
W Patrik Puistola
D Jesper Sellgren

D-level prospects
C Clark Bishop
C David Cotton
D Dominick Fensore
D Oliwer Kaski
C Steven Lorentz
C Stelio Mattheos
D Roland McKeown
C Blake Murray
D Alexander "Boom" Nikishin
W Zion Nybeck
W Alexander Pashin
D Ronan Seeley
W Tuukka Tieksola

Are these your tiers? Or is this how someone else (Pronman, HF, etc..) views them? I'm not disagreeing with it, as it seems reasonable. Just curious.

 

[DaveG]

Are these your tiers? Or is this how someone else (Pronman, HF, etc..) views them? I'm not disagreeing with it, as it seems reasonable. Just curious.

More how we as a group ended up tiering them based on the voting results distribution points wise.

 

[tarheelhockey]

Are these your tiers? Or is this how someone else (Pronman, HF, etc..) views them? I'm not disagreeing with it, as it seems reasonable. Just curious.

Just my take on where the lines are drawn... A and B are pretty clear cut, as is D. They're each separated by ~30 points.

C is a bit vague... a lot broader point range than the other tiers because the players aren't clustered and are 10-20 points removed from each other.

At the end of the day I felt like it's easier to just think of it as a pyramid rather than a ladder, and throw all the C-range guys into a level together. But if we wanted to parse them out a little more:

C+
Drury, Gunler

C
Keane, Ponomaryov, Sellgren

C -
Honka, Puistola

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

More how we as a group ended up tiering them based on the voting results distribution points wise.

Ah, I completely missed that you posted the results in the 2nd post.

 

[tarheelhockey]

Ah, I completely missed that you posted the results in the 2nd post.

I did too until this morning... stumbled across it by pure luck.

 

[A Star is Burns]

I was wondering where all that was coming from. Glad you guys mentioned it. I'm sure the individual lists are a bit bizarre as always but I like the consensus rankings we ended up with. Really the only one I think is a bit too high or low is Geekie. I've been a fan of his for quite some time but I think his audition pushed him up farther than he should be. I guess he is fairly safe to be some kind of NHL player though. I'm not horribly offended by his ranking. Just seems slightly too much.

 

[Lempo]

Are these your tiers? Or is this how someone else (Pronman, HF, etc..) views them? I'm not disagreeing with it, as it seems reasonable. Just curious.

What we did was, we told B-boys to throw their hands in the air. And then factored it from the result.

 

[bleedgreen]

I was wondering where all that was coming from. Glad you guys mentioned it. I'm sure the individual lists are a bit bizarre as always but I like the consensus rankings we ended up with. Really the only one I think is a bit too high or low is Geekie. I've been a fan of his for quite some time but I think his audition pushed him up farther than he should be. I guess he is fairly safe to be some kind of NHL player though. I'm not horribly offended by his ranking. Just seems slightly too much.

You have to take actual nhl play into account. A guy who plays bottom six but is highly likely to do so should have a lot of value even if his ceiling isnt high. Geekie is going to play this year, and will make an occasional impact. I actually didnt put him on my list because to me he's on the team already and not a prospect, but I told Dave where I wouldve slotted him if it mattered. I have him in the top 5, because he's going to play. So many on this list wont, he shouldnt be behind them just because they have a higher ceiling. He's way more likely to hit his and add value to the team.

 

[AD Skinner]

I can't imagine Geekie not starting off at 4C whenever the canes play again. I think his spot in the nhl lineup is pretty secure

 

[NotOpie]

I can't imagine Geekie not starting off at 4C whenever the canes play again. I think his spot in the nhl lineup is pretty secure

I hope he gets some PP time. That right shot and tenaciousness down low should have value. I'm guessing, if he gets any minutes, it would be on the 2nd unit....

 

[WreckingCrew]

I can't imagine Geekie not starting off at 4C whenever the canes play again. I think his spot in the nhl lineup is pretty secure

I definitely think it's "his to lose," but I don't think he's a lock by any means...he still has a year of waiver exemption and he was a non-factor in the playoffs (granted that was most of the team outside the top line, especially against BOS)

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

You have to take actual nhl play into account. A guy who plays bottom six but is highly likely to do so should have a lot of value even if his ceiling isnt high. Geekie is going to play this year, and will make an occasional impact. I actually didnt put him on my list because to me he's on the team already and not a prospect, but I told Dave where I wouldve slotted him if it mattered. I have him in the top 5, because he's going to play. So many on this list wont, he shouldnt be behind them just because they have a higher ceiling. He's way more likely to hit his and add value to the team.

I agree. I had him in my top 5 because of both his continued development and his "NHL readiness". As we've discussed in the past, it all depends on how much value one places on "ultimate potential" vs. "NHL readiness/probability of making it".

There's no right or wrong, just what weight one decides to place on those factors.

@DaveG Would be great if we could link the prospect rankings from prior years (as far back as we can go) in the OP to see how well, or poorly we did as a group over the years.

 

[DaveG]

I agree. I had him in my top 5 because of both his continued development and his "NHL readiness". As we've discussed in the past, it all depends on how much value one places on "ultimate potential" vs. "NHL readiness/probability of making it".

There's no right or wrong, just what weight one decides to place on those factors.

@DaveG Would be great if we could link the prospect rankings from prior years (as far back as we can go) in the OP to see how well, or poorly we did as a group over the years.

I can dig up some links once I'm back on the home computer, iirc our lists have been pretty good over the past few years aside from the occasional Zykov-type player over-hype.

 

[A Star is Burns]

I agree. I had him in my top 5 because of both his continued development and his "NHL readiness". As we've discussed in the past, it all depends on how much value one places on "ultimate potential" vs. "NHL readiness/probability of making it".

There's no right or wrong, just what weight one decides to place on those factors.

@DaveG Would be great if we could link the prospect rankings from prior years (as far back as we can go) in the OP to see how well, or poorly we did as a group over the years.

I agree with you guys. I mentioned as much in my comments on his ranking. I'm just not sure what to make of a guy with 10 games, most of which weren't that amazing (not that they were bad either). He's probably going to be a nice 3rd to 4th liner and you can't sleep on that. Not impossible he moves up even beyond that. But it's still not a guarantee more than it was for a Zykov or McBain type that had great auditions once upon a time. He's safe, but for a prospect ranking, I'll take a little more upside personally. That's not to say I'd put the crazy upside guys like Nybeck or Pashin above him because you do have to factor in some amount of likelihood to reach the NHL.

As I mentioned originally, I'm not crazy offended by it, I just think he's a few spots too high or so.

 

[DaveG]

I can dig up some links once I'm back on the home computer, iirc our lists have been pretty good over the past few years aside from the occasional Zykov-type player over-hype.

So I was able to dig up the past 3, looks like beyond that may have been lost to the ether

2019: Prospect Info: - Top Prospects Poll 2019
nobody really stands out as overrated, though we're only one year out from that so it makes sense. Stelio is a bit high but you can't fault him for the season that got derailed.

2018: Prospect Info: - 2018-19 Prospect Poll
Zykov over Fox looks like a major laugher in hindsight but aside from that I wouldn't say anything looks THAT out of place, including Saarela.

2017: Prospect Info: - 2017 Carolina Hurricanes Prospect Ranking
Pretty good ranking IMO given that snapshot in time for the prospects. Luke Martin turned out to be a bust but he wasn't ranked THAT highly here overall.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

He's safe, but for a prospect ranking, I'll take a little more upside personally. That's not to say I'd put the crazy upside guys like Nybeck or Pashin above him because you do have to factor in some amount of likelihood to reach the NHL.

yeah, safe is a fair assessment. Since 2000, so far at forward, canes have had how many guys drafted after round 2 actually amounted to anything?

Drayson Bowman:Ahl/nhl tweener
Chris Terry: Ahl/nhl tweener
Wallmark: 4th line C
Foegele: bottom 6 winger

maybe the new regime is better at picking and will have better results, but until they do, I’ll weight “safe” a little more if the guy can also play a little. IIRC, I had Geekie in with some of our recent 2nd rounders but above the rest of the forwards.

 

[geehaad]

I'm just not sure what to make of a guy with 10 games, most of which weren't that amazing (not that they were bad either).

Where did you rank Geekie?