2019 Season Discussion Thread

[bleedblue1223]

Gurley will be fine if taken in the back half of the 1st or early 2nd IMO. I think that's about the value he'll bring. People are blowing the issue way out of proportion. He won't compete with the top 4 in terms of points, but even with a lighter load, he's still going to outperform the next tier of guys IMO. I'm more worried about Bell being in a crappy offense than I am about Gurley. I think it's fine taking the elite WR, the top 4/5 guys ahead of him, but I wouldn't draft the inferior RB's ahead of him.

 

[bleedblue1223]

In a league without TE spots, so the only TE's owned are Kelce, Kittle, Ertz, and maybe 1 or 2 others that breakout, how would you adjust rankings for the top 3 guys, specifically Kittle. Basically, if Kittle was a WR, where would you place him?

We get 1 RB, 1 WR, and 2 RB/WR/TE.

 

[rangerssharks414]

In a league without TE spots, so the only TE's owned are Kelce, Kittle, Ertz, and maybe 1 or 2 others that breakout, how would you adjust rankings for the top 3 guys, specifically Kittle. Basically, if Kittle was a WR, where would you place him?

We get 1 RB, 1 WR, and 2 RB/WR/TE.

Probably somewhere in the middle of the 4th round

 

[stempniaksen]

In a league without TE spots, so the only TE's owned are Kelce, Kittle, Ertz, and maybe 1 or 2 others that breakout, how would you adjust rankings for the top 3 guys, specifically Kittle. Basically, if Kittle was a WR, where would you place him?

We get 1 RB, 1 WR, and 2 RB/WR/TE.

He would have scored as pass catcher #12 last year in fantasy, for reference. (Kelce would have been 8th and Ertz would have been 15th).

I'd be pretty tempted to not touch TE at all in that format, especially if I missed out on Kelce.

 

[bleedblue1223]

He would have scored as pass catcher #12 last year in fantasy, for reference. (Kelce would have been 8th and Ertz would have been 15th).

I'd be pretty tempted to not touch TE at all in that format, especially if I missed out on Kelce.

Yeah, it's only those 3 worth drafting, I'm only going to have Kittle because he'd be my keeper and he'd cost me a 12th round pick. It's between him and James White, both cost a 12th and it's a half-PPR.

 

[stempniaksen]

Yeah, it's only those 3 worth drafting, I'm only going to have Kittle because he'd be my keeper and he'd cost me a 12th round pick. It's between him and James White, both cost a 12th and it's a half-PPR.

Ah I see. Well at the cost of a 12th it's obviously an easy move for you to make. I have a hard time seeing Kittle match his yardage numbers from last year, so I think he might end up with a slight dip in production from a fantasy perspective. Given that I probably peg his value somewhere in the 5th/6th (still a steal for you though obviously).

 

[rangerssharks414]

You guys arent really helping, lol. Obviously CMC is the better and safer player, obviously Chubb has more value being a 10th. I am concerned with Hunt coming back, especially leeching in the fantasy playoffs, and if Chubb is a true star RB like he was for half a season. Chubb also has future value as a keeper while CMC does not

Keep in mind that a second is basically a 3rd in re-drafts. My projected players that will be kept are: Gurley, Barkley, Hopkins, Kamara, Kittle, Kelce, Diggs (unless he keeps Mahomes), Damien Williams (doubt it will be Gordon for a 1st but could be since a 1st is like a 2nd) and Ju-Ju

So if I Keep Chubb and draft, say, 2nd overall, I could have CMC, Chubb and whoever is still available late in the 2nd which would be one of: Keenan Allan, TY Hilton or Adam Thielen. Then there is the possibility of one of them also being there after the turn so after 3 rounds my team could be: CMC, Chubb, Adam Thielen* and Keenan Allen*. If I kept CMC and things play out the same my team after 3 rounds would be: CMC, DJ and Thielen*. Is Allen and Chubb worth a trade for DJ, I'd imagine Zeke will go 1stOA

If I draft like 9th and kept Chubb, after 3 rounds my team could look like: Chubb, Thomas, Mixon and... im not even sure, Cooks or Lockett maybe. If I keep CMC...well I hope to draft early. I finished 6th, heart break too as I tied for the last playoff spot, 4th, but was 5th due to tie breakers. so being that i finished 6th after the bracket I will be 6th to select my draft position

Chubb is probably the safer play, then.

I have Gurley around RB8, but could reasonably see an argument for him as low as RB10.

I'm around the same range as you for Gurley. I think his ADP will continue to rise.

 

[bleedblue1223]

Ah I see. Well at the cost of a 12th it's obviously an easy move for you to make. I have a hard time seeing Kittle match his yardage numbers from last year, so I think he might end up with a slight dip in production from a fantasy perspective. Given that I probably peg his value somewhere in the 5th/6th (still a steal for you though obviously).

Right, I'm just split between him and White. I sort of expect a drop of Kittle, and I wonder about White. I'm not sure last season was sustainable for him either, but that offense is losing a lot of pieces and Brady likes familiarity, so I could see White having 100+ targets again, which would be RB1 or RB2 value.

 

[bleedblue1223]

Duke Johnson to Houston. I love that RB tandem now and they'll both be cheap. Miller has a low-ceiling, but high floor, and this move will help drop his ADP, so it'll be easier to get him. Johnson should be back to getting a ton of targets like he did in 2017. I think this actually gives each stability as they each have their own role and aren't battling each other.

Just draft each for what they are. Miller is your safe, reliable RB3/4/5 to balance your riskier early round RB's that have high upside. Johnson you can get much later with good upside.

 

[JetsWillFly4Ever]

Miller had 3 down potential before this, it's a pretty significant hit to his value. I don't think he's worth drafting except for an RB4 that you need for bye weeks, and by that point I'm usually gambling on potential.

I'd prefer Duke, he's actually a hell of a football player and there could be some shoot-outs in Houston as they have a real tough schedule.

 

[bleedblue1223]

Miller had 3 down potential before this, it's a pretty significant hit to his value. I don't think he's worth drafting except for an RB4 that you need for bye weeks, and by that point I'm usually gambling on potential.

I'd prefer Duke, he's actually a hell of a football player and there could be some shoot-outs in Houston as they have a real tough schedule.

Miller had that potential, but never provided it. I think he'll finally be drafted for what he is, a high-floor RB that won't do all that much in the passing game, but now we don't have to worry too much about him losing significant carries. If you take a risk on an early pick, like banking on Fournette to be healthy, then Miller can provide you some value. I'm still not going out of my way to draft him, but I think people will undervalue him because of his limited ceiling.

 

[JetsWillFly4Ever]

Miller had that potential, but never provided it. I think he'll finally be drafted for what he is, a high-floor RB that won't do all that much in the passing game, but now we don't have to worry too much about him losing significant carries. If you take a risk on an early pick, like banking on Fournette to be healthy, then Miller can provide you some value. I'm still not going out of my way to draft him, but I think people will undervalue him because of his limited ceiling.

He had passing game potential in the last few years though when they didn't have a 3rd down back. In PPR this is a pretty big hit to his floor imo. Unless he gets you a touchdown he'll be virtually useless.

 

[bleedblue1223]

He had passing game potential in the last few years though when they didn't have a 3rd down back. In PPR this is a pretty big hit to his floor imo. Unless he gets you a touchdown he'll be virtually useless.

Yeah, that's all fair. He's sort of like Jarvis Landry. Pretty low-ceiling, but a pretty solid floor.

 

[rangerssharks414]

Lamar Miller has always been a tease like I mentioned before. I have him on my main dynasty team, so welp...

I always liked Duke Johnson. The Browns never gave him much of a chance the last few years.

 

[BondraTime]

Kittle should see more than the 5 TD’s he had last year with a much, much better QB and offence, and being the de-facto go to guy in the Red Zone, even if you want to subtract 300 yards.

He’s apparently seeing a shit ton of targets in training camp as Pettis is not playing well and disappointing the coaching staff

 

[JetsWillFly4Ever]

Well, we did our annual royal rumble on Xbox to decide our draft pick. I got 9th, which I hate.

League also voted to go to a 8 team playoff, which I also hate.

 

[tacogeoff]

Draft day is tomorrow! A little earlier then we would of liked but due to people's work schedules this is the only weekend that works. We rented a few campsites at a lake and are doing our live draft there with a BBQ and some Bevys.
10 team league Q/RB/RB/WR/WR/TE/FLEX/K/D and I think 6 bench spots.
We are moving to a PPR scoring league from a standard this year so it could be an interesting draft. Will have updates Monday.

 

[JetsWillFly4Ever]

Any suggestions on strategies for 9th? It will be 12 team PPR, 3 WR.

I'm assuming top 5 RB's, Hopkins, Adams will be gone for sure. After that I don't love anybody, I'd probably put Bell 8th on my list but if he goes then I have no idea who I would take at 9. Could go OBJ or Julio, could go Mixon/Conner/Chubb.

I think my preference might be to take OBJ or Julio and then wait to see what RB come back around at 16.

Really hate this spot.

 

[rangerssharks414]

Any suggestions on strategies for 9th? It will be 12 team PPR, 3 WR.

I'm assuming top 5 RB's, Hopkins, Adams will be gone for sure. After that I don't love anybody, I'd probably put Bell 8th on my list but if he goes then I have no idea who I would take at 9. Could go OBJ or Julio, could go Mixon/Conner/Chubb.

I think my preference might be to take OBJ or Julio and then wait to see what RB come back around at 16.

Really hate this spot.

I'd probably go with Julio or Michael Thomas at 9, and hope that one of Mixon or Cook (or maybe even Gurley) is there. I do not like Conner at all this year considering where you have to take him.

 

[JetsWillFly4Ever]

I'd probably go with Julio or Michael Thomas at 9, and hope that one of Mixon or Cook (or maybe even Gurley) is there. I do not like Conner at all this year considering where you have to take him.

I’m almost completely out on Gurley tbh, that knee plus Henderson scares me too much. Too much risk for a top 2 pick imo.

The other option would be to go with Kelce. Or else I’m thinking OBJ/Julio then either cook/mixon/Chubb

 

[Club]

Draft day is tomorrow! A little earlier then we would of liked but due to people's work schedules this is the only weekend that works. We rented a few campsites at a lake and are doing our live draft there with a BBQ and some Bevys.
10 team league Q/RB/RB/WR/WR/TE/FLEX/K/D and I think 6 bench spots.
We are moving to a PPR scoring league from a standard this year so it could be an interesting draft. Will have updates Monday.

Have a great time! Sounds like fun!

 

[rangerssharks414]

I’m almost completely out on Gurley tbh, that knee plus Henderson scares me too much. Too much risk for a top 2 pick imo.

The other option would be to go with Kelce. Or else I’m thinking OBJ/Julio then either cook/mixon/Chubb

I honestly don't think he'll be there anyway, but I think I'm higher on him than most. I'd rather have Gurley with a few less touches per game than say, a Conner with about the same amount of snaps as last year (which he probably won't get, but my point still stands).

 

[JetsWillFly4Ever]

I honestly don't think he'll be there anyway, but I think I'm higher on him than most. I'd rather have Gurley with a few less touches per game than say, a Conner with about the same amount of snaps as last year (which he probably won't get, but my point still stands).

That’s fair. If I was confident it was a few less touches i would agree but I think it will be a lot more than that.

 

[tacogeoff]

Have a great time! Sounds like fun!

thanks! its our 5th year of our live draft so we thought we would head out and hold it somewhere different then at my friends acreage. It is a lot more entertaining then drafting online and a having this one early is a good guide to prep for my other online drafts in a few weeks.....hopefully I don't get too tipsy and make some bad decisions lol

 

[rangerssharks414]

Draft day is tomorrow! A little earlier then we would of liked but due to people's work schedules this is the only weekend that works. We rented a few campsites at a lake and are doing our live draft there with a BBQ and some Bevys.
10 team league Q/RB/RB/WR/WR/TE/FLEX/K/D and I think 6 bench spots.
We are moving to a PPR scoring league from a standard this year so it could be an interesting draft. Will have updates Monday.

Good luck! Have fun! (moved the post and replies here)

Do you know what pick you have?