2019 NHL Draft: Russian Prospects

[Caser]

It's already June and I still didn't post any pre-draft write-up, let's fix that.
Mood: running out of time.
Concept: "Less is more" by Mies; 'Tiered ranking' by Steve Dangle.
Soundtrack: Tiesto_&_Jonas_Blue_feat_Rita_Ora_-_Ritual.



Tier 1 aka "The Pod"

1. W Vasiliy Podkolzin

Let's face it, Podkolzin is a tier of his own here. Everything has been already said and done about him, not sure if I should repeat it. In short: while it is possible to question his offensive upside due to some flaws (possibly fixable ones though), he is a winner. Despite all the Russian factor talks about him, it's hard to imagine both Joe and SteveY passing on him, so I don't think he will fall down too much.


Tier 2 aka "Top50 guys"

2. RW Pavel Dorofeyev
3. C Yegor Spiridonov
4. C Ilya Nikolayev
5. LHD Roman Bychkov
6. W/C Yegor Afanasyev

Again, probably pretty self-descriptive name for this tier: to me those players are legit candidates for the Top50 draft position and I totally won't be surprised if they even jump into the first round. Dorofeyev can create a scoring chance out of nothing, got all the tools in the attacking area, biggest concern is about the translation of his "east-west" playing style to the pros. With Spiridonov what you get is what you see — a big quality two-way center with a heavy right-handed shot, but he is no "first violin". Similar case is Nikolayev, minus the big frame, but with some more skill and playmaking. I like how Roman Bychkov understands the game, I thing GMs would be willing to spend a rather high pick on that. Limited viewings is the reason I can't really place Afanasyev higher, but from what I've seen there might be that valuable offense generating ability.


Tier 3 aka "The Raw Talent"

7. LHD Artemiy Knyazev
8. GK Pyotr Kochetkov
9. C/W Matvei Guskov
10. C Mikhail Abramov

As the title says, there's some talent here in this tier, but that talent needs quite some refinement. With Knyazev it is the puckmoving talent (in a broad sense of it), but, while he sure got stronger during this season, it's still a long way to go for him. Kochetkov got that size and mobility combination that you want to see in your future starter, but he still needs to find more consistency (also there is an additional concern about his health, as he already had a groin surgery last year). You can easily see that Guskov-sr. was a pro hockey player, as Matvei inherited both athletic body and hard working approach from him, yet it is really hard to rate him when he almost wasn't used at his primary center position this season. Abramov's natural talent might be not that obvious from the first sight, but he is a natural playmaker —there's some perfect timing on his passes and you can't really teach that, still that modest size raises questions (yet he isn't weak at all).


Tier 4 aka "It's All in Your Head"

11. GK Ilya Konovalov
12. LW Arseniy Gritsyuk
13. LHD Daniil Misyul

Not exactly easy to describe this small tier, but I'd say here are the players, whose mental attributes I value more than their physical talents. With Konovalov it is all about being a hard worker: while not being very naturally gifted goalie, he had been showing progress year after year and was able to refine his technique to the level of setting some records in the KHL; not that easy to tell if there's NHL starter potential, as goalies are hard to predict, but with that kind of work and progress I won't be surprised if it is there. Gritsyuk might not seem very special at the first sight, but I think he has good overall skillset and very well knows when and how to use it, in that way there's something Kaprizov-like about him. With Misyul it might be totally unobvious why I'd put him in this tier, as he is quite a physical beast, but it just isn't what impressed me as much as his confidence, when he was called up to the KHL at the end of the season and started physically dominating KHL pros like it's no big deal; additionally judging by recent U20 NT games there might be something good in terms of puckmoving too.


Tier 5 aka "The Misunderstood Talent"

14. RW Yegor Chinakhov
15. LHD Nikita Okhotyuk
16. LHD Semyon Chistyakov
17. W Vladislav Firstov
18. C Oleg Zaitsev
19. LHD Ilya Mironov
20. RW Kirill Slepets
21. LW Daniil Gutik
22. RW Yegor Serdyuk

All these players sure got some talent, but I kind of failed to understand them properly in a way if I like what they got enough to overweigh my concerns about them. Let me describe what my "lovehate" is in brief. Chinakhov: one of the best wristers here, it is really impressive how he finds those top corners, yet too many times he is just invisible. Okhotyuk: he is totally fine as a physical stay-at-home, but I was really hoping that there is some puckmoving talent too. Chistyakov: I like how he hits hard, I don't like that his modest height might be a showstopper for that at the pro level; I like how he is able to carry that puck through the neutral zone, but I don't like how he distributes that puck in the attacking zone. Firstov: maybe my limited viewing are to blame, but I have an impression that while having a good shot and creativity, he is not exactly the most consistent performer. Zaitsev: solid all-around game, but I totally didn't get the impression that he got the upside to be something more than bottom-six center. Mironov: all the tools, but not able to get them in a toolbox yet. Slepets: was looking very motivated at the WJC where he showed great skill and wheels, but he has gathered really a lot of red flags over the years. Gutik: great hands and frame, but sometimes you really wondering what is going on in his head when he's on the ice (if anything at all). Serdyuk: can't deny that he can put that puck in the net, but the overall level of his athleticism seems subpar to me.


Tier 6 aka "The Sleeper Picks"

23. C Alexei Tsyplakov
24. LW Dmitriy Sheshin
25. LHD Grigoriy Dronov
26. C/W Georgiy Ivanov
27. C Dmitriy Voronkov
28. RW Nikita Shashkov
29. RHD Andrei Pribylskiy
30. RW Yegor Chizhikov

My favorite tier — guys, who don't get a lot of pre-draft attention, but who, in my opinion, can have a very good value as a late-round picks. Tsyplakov lacks proper exposure, but aside from that I don't think there are a lot flaws in his game, a quality all-around center. Sheshin got enough of exposure and basically of everything, except height — 5'7" is 5'7" even in the modern hockey. When healthy Dronov is playing at the KHL top-pairing level, I think it shows the potential there high enough to cover the risks related to the missing time due to injuries. Ivanov had a great season, playing on the same line with already drafted prospects Kayumov and Kovalenko and, imo, was the best on that line. Voronkov has been extremely noticeable at the U20 tournaments recently, he is a big gritty center with good hands and mobility. Shashkov is a classical hard-hitting power forward with a good nose for the net. Pribylskiy found himself in KHL team's line-up this season when he wasn't even 18 and was able to carry that load decently, him being right-handed also adds some value. Finally, Chizhikov is a lesser known name here, but I really liked what I saw from him in the MHL, good combination of skill and responsible game, likely a long-shot though.


While I understand that some of you might be disappointed by the lack of depth and details in my write-up this year, I had to choose this style due to lack of time resources. Still, if any of you will have interest in something more specific, we can discuss it and go into details right here in this thread, since no write-up can be worth as much as a quality live discussion.

Upd.: A small bonus can be found here: Post #39

Click to read more...

 

[ProspectsFanatic]

Great write up Caser!
What are your thoughts on Yegor Bryutov?

 

[Caser]

Great write up Casey!
What are your thoughts on Yegor Bryutov?

Quite a complicated case, as he wasn't given too much responsibilities in the VHL and I think it was overall a bit early for him to play at this level already this year, so not easy to make conclusions on him. From what I saw he showed good physicality and shot, decent skating, but looked a bit shaky. Btw, he got traded to CSKA Moscow recently.

 

[ProspectsFanatic]

What about Mikhail Shalagin? Is his skating a big concern when projecting for the NHL? Could he be a late pick?

 

[Caser]

What about Mikhail Shalagin? Is his skating a big concern when projecting for the NHL? Could he be a late pick?

Well, never say never, but it seems highly unlikely to me at least at this point.

 

[57special]

Caser, who is your nomination as the Kaprizov of 2019 - the talented player who is taken as an afterthought in the draft, and ends up being a steal?

 

[Caser]

Caser, who is your nomination as the Kaprizov of 2019 - the talented player who is taken as an afterthought in the draft, and ends up being a steal?

In the write-up I've mentioned that there's something Kaprizov-like in Gritsyuk in terms of playing style, but I think he could be viewed like that in the way you mean too.

 

[Frk It]

What about Alexander Daryin?

 

[RedWingzz]

No Nikita Alexandrov?

 

[Zaddy]

What's the reason you don't have Misyul higher on your list? He really impressed me in the games I saw from him in the KHL. Big guy who can really skate, has good puck skills and is a good passer. Think he has a bit of a sneaky release on his shot too. I think he's a really solid 3rd round pick.

 

[Caser]

What about Alexander Daryin?

I liked his skating and he got a decent shot, but recently in Sochi he basically almost disappeared.

No Nikita Alexandrov?

I'm not sure if he is eligible to represent Russia, so I was considering him German all season long.

What's the reason you don't have Misyul higher on your list? He really impressed me in the games I saw from him in the KHL. Big guy who can really skate, has good puck skills and is a good passer. Think he has a bit of a sneaky release on his shot too. I think he's a really solid 3rd round pick.

If we look only at the end of the season (KHL + U20 NT Sochi games) then I agree with you, I see similar things in him. But in the MHL he was rather meh and not always reliable at his own end, also in the previous season for the U18 NT too - so I really want to see more long-term consistency in his game.

 

[Makaveli]

What are your thoughts on Maxim Shabanov?

 

[Caser]

What are your thoughts on Maxim Shabanov?

Actually also a good question, as I actually liked him very much all season long, I think he understands the geometry of the attacking game very well - I mean, he basically is always at the right place at the right time, both with or without the puck. With that being said, I decided to leave him right out of the Top30, because I doubt that his skating is good enough to compensate his size.

 

[FMichael]

Is it me, or are there not many 'hi-end' Russians when compared to past draft years?

 

[Caser]

Is it me, or are there not many 'hi-end' Russians when compared to past draft years?

Depends on a definition of 'high-end'. Maybe comparing to 2018's Svech&Co, but if you look at the class of 2017 it doesn't look much better (if better at all).

If we're talking about what's special about this year, I'd say it's the amount of kids, who are talented, but for some reason aren't really putting that talent to a proper use. By that I mean those guys, who are in my 'Tier 5' and also a lot of talented guys, who didn't even make it in my Top30 at all.

 

[FMichael]

Depends on a definition of 'high-end'. Maybe comparing to 2018's Svech&Co, but if you look at the class of 2017 it doesn't look much better (if better at all).

If we're talking about what's special about this year, I'd say it's the ammount of talented kids, who are talented, but for some reason aren't really putting that talent to a proper use. By that I mean those guys, who are in my 'Tier 5' and also a lot of talented huys, who didn't even make it in my Top30 at all.

I guess I should be more specific...

1st, and 2nd rounds for this years draft...Seems like there'll only be several Russian born taken...That seems pretty low to me.

 

[Unsustainable]

On the Canes mock draft pick, we selected Dorofeyev.

How do you think he would line up with the Canes?

 

[Kshahdoo]

On the Canes mock draft pick, we selected Dorofeyev.

How do you think he would line up with the Canes?

First shift with Mozyakin. Pavel Dorofeyev’s success story

 

[Caser]

I guess I should be more specific...

1st, and 2nd rounds for this years draft...Seems like there'll only be several Russian born taken...That seems pretty low to me.

I don't know, to me those six guys at the top tiers of my ranking could easily go there in the first two rounds and probably not only them.

On the Canes mock draft pick, we selected Dorofeyev.

How do you think he would line up with the Canes?

Since, iirc, the Canes are one of the organizations, that can't afford a scout in Russia, I don't think he will line up there at all.

 

[Unsustainable]

I don't know, to me those six guys at the top tiers of my ranking could easily go there in the first two rounds and probably not only them.



Since, iirc, the Canes are one of the organizations, that can't afford a scout in Russia, I don't think he will line up there at all.

I think most of our scouting outside of the US is focused on Finland / Sweden. But with Svechnikov, maybe we move to looking more out that way?

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

I don't understand how an NHL team with an owner who is a billionaire could not afford a full time scout in Russia.

 

[FMichael]

I don't understand how an NHL team with an owner who is a billionaire could not afford a full time scout in Russia.

Priorities?

Yeah - I know...If you're not gonna put the effort, and $$$ into the franchise then what's the point of owning one?

 

[greasysnapper]

Priorities?

Yeah - I know...If you're not gonna put the effort, and $$$ into the franchise then what's the point of owning one?

Because it's a business and the organization is/was haemorrhaging money. In Forbes' most recent analysis, they had the Canes losing 3.9million for that season (before interest, taxes, and amortization).

The Business Of Hockey

Lots of teams just buy tape and have subscriptions to every streaming and archive service and scout off of that for areas they don't have regular or fulltime scouts. It's not as good as having the real thing but it's a cost effective solution. Especially when you can get multiple people working on it. It's also why you see so many scouts at big tournaments like the u18 in April. For many organizations it's their first real time look at some of these kids.

I think it's a smart business decision if you don't regularly draft from the locale. Is it the best? No. But even as a big proponent of Russian hockey, I don't necessarily think it's a bad strategy if you are limited. It's a product of the world we live in. Look how big remote working has become in a normal office environment. Technology is certainly helping with some of these expenditures.

 

[Evgeny Oliker]

Thoughts on Afanasyev?

In USHL he loves to pull off fancy moves. I don’t think those moves will work in NHL. Has a decent one timer though.

But his skating style reminds me of Malkin. He is not on that skill level of course.

How do you view his passing abilities?

What do you think is his nhl upside? Decent top 6 forward ?


Thanks.

 

[Caser]

Thoughts on Afanasyev?

In USHL he loves to pull off fancy moves. I don’t think those moves will work in NHL. Has a decent one timer though.

But his skating style reminds me of Malkin. He is not on that skill level of course.

How do you view his passing abilities?

What do you think is his nhl upside? Decent top 6 forward ?


Thanks.

As I've mentioned in the write-up, I don't feel I've seen him enough myself, yet I heard some stuff from people who did see him more and I had a good impression of his size and skating combination. Still it often is described as 'fine' and not 'great', so my understandng is that likely we are talking more about 'middle-six' and not a clear 'top-six' and then there are questions if his two-way game is good enough for that. As for the passing I totally saw myself that he can make a very nice feed and it's not surprising, as he is pretty skilled. As for the skating, hard to compare to Malkin, as he is one of the kind - I mean, Malkin' skating style sometimes made me wonder how his ankles are surviving with that kind of big body.