Pre-Game Talk: 2019 NHL Draft, Pt. V: Got your ticket? (Mod note in pinned post)

[Zombotron]

This thread might go a touch over the post limit. Just ignore it and keep going. We'll have a GDT on draft day and you can continue your discussion there.​

Meetup thread: The Draft - who here is going?

Previous draft discussion thread: 2019 NHL Draft, Pt. IV (sorry if you missed it)

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Spoiler: Results of M2B's poll from that thread:

Spoiler: Teams' draft comments

Kings' top scout breaks down possible draft picks at No. 5
JONES: Oilers looking for more depth up front as entry draft approaches

 

[Zombotron]

Teaser for my interview with Cam Robinson, he doesn't think the Canucks will draft a Dman at 10 and will prioritize speed

There was an early report somewhere that the Canucks are hoping Krebs is available at 10 OA and that would jive. The fact is that there are a bunch of forwards in that range that are described as having great speed/skating, including Zegras, Boldy, and Newhook. Does rule out Caufield as an option, though.

It's worth noting that the "Canucks will prioritize speed" thing has been reported by multiple sources.

Cam has noted "Canucks wills prioritize speed" on twitter a few times too. He said that Alex Newhook and Dylan Cozens are the two players that he feels the Canucks like.

I would love Krebs, he is a great player, his point production ceiling may not be as high as others but he would be a Horvat type pick, the overall game is too good to pass up.

 

[ProstheticConscience]

So are the Canucks going to prioritize speed?

 

[VintageBure]

What do you guys think if Podkolzin if he falls all the way to 10? Haven't really seen much of his play, is he dropping because of a lack of production?

 

[biturbo19]

What do you guys think if Podkolzin if he falls all the way to 10? Haven't really seen much of his play, is he dropping because of a lack of production?

I don't think it's lack of production, so much as he's starting to feel like a Virtanen. He's a big guy who skates real fast, can score goals, and the highlights are there, with some good showings internationally early. But it's a lot of the same concerns, in just how smart a player he is, how good his vision is...and he doesn't have the same physical edge Virtanen did either. Combine that with the Russian factor, and at least a few similar-ish Russian wingers managing to find ways to not spend all their time in North America, it gets a bit riskier.

 

[Cquant]

Yeah, I don't think I'd be happy with Podkolzin. Nothing to do with the Russian factor. There are other forwards who are less risky. Pods could be a first line winger, or he could be a 4th liner winger. At this point we shouldn't be taking the high-risk picks. Moderate to low risk instead. We can't afford another Virtanen or Juolevi. We need a guy who will contribute well to our top 6 in a couple of years.

 

[clunk]

What do you guys think if Podkolzin if he falls all the way to 10? Haven't really seen much of his play, is he dropping because of a lack of production?

I've flipped flopped on this. I would still be fine with them taking him if they were confident on him and did their research, but I think the better option is Newhook, Krebs or Boldy if you're going for a forward. I really like Newhook the most out of the forwards in our range though.

 

[4Twenty]

I don't think it's lack of production, so much as he's starting to feel like a Virtanen. He's a big guy who skates real fast, can score goals, and the highlights are there, with some good showings internationally early. But it's a lot of the same concerns, in just how smart a player he is, how good his vision is...and he doesn't have the same physical edge Virtanen did either. Combine that with the Russian factor, and at least a few similar-ish Russian wingers managing to find ways to not spend all their time in North America, it gets a bit riskier.

I don't think that is the case at all, the guy is very good along the wall and in a battle, something Jake still struggles very much with. He also seemingly knows how to get open in the offensive zone without the puck, Jake still doesn't seem to grasp this.

Feels like a very lazy comparison.

I think it comes down to his lack of production in league play and his russian contract. But take a boo on youtube at that league he plays in, it's freakin' garbage hockey with so much dead puck era hooking/holding it's tough to watch.

 

[4Twenty]

Yeah, I don't think I'd be happy with Podkolzin. Nothing to do with the Russian factor. There are other forwards who are less risky. Pods could be a first line winger, or he could be a 4th liner winger. At this point we shouldn't be taking the high-risk picks. Moderate to low risk instead. We can't afford another Virtanen or Juolevi. We need a guy who will contribute well to our top 6 in a couple of years.

Neither Juolevi or Virtanen could/should be considered risky picks. Probably the exact opposite...they seemed very much of the "high floor" variety as opposed to Pettersson or the dimuntive Hughes...those could actually be considered high risk picks.

Podkolzin definitely seems like he's probably in the middle. Has some risk, but at 10th would easily be the best "talent" available.

 

[DownGoesMcDavid]

Yeah, I don't think I'd be happy with Podkolzin. Nothing to do with the Russian factor. There are other forwards who are less risky. Pods could be a first line winger, or he could be a 4th liner winger. At this point we shouldn't be taking the high-risk picks. Moderate to low risk instead. We can't afford another Virtanen or Juolevi. We need a guy who will contribute well to our top 6 in a couple of years.

No High Risk picks ?

Okay so no Podz, Caufield, Broberg, Newhook etc.

We also wouldn't have Pettersson if we subscribed to this mantra.

 

[TruGr1t]

Neither Juolevi or Virtanen could/should be considered risky picks. Probably the exact opposite...they seemed very much of the "high floor" variety as opposed to Pettersson or the dimuntive Hughes...those could actually be considered high risk picks.

Podkolzin definitely seems like he's probably in the middle. Has some risk, but at 10th would easily be the best "talent" available.

I was under the impression Virtanen was a boom/bust pick due to the fact he was being drafted on upside based on a relatively small, and not repeated, WHL sample size. The idea was his head would catch-up with his physical tools, which it never did. The fear was his toolset wouldn't translate to the NHL due to poor hockey IQ, which turned out to be correct.

That's in the context of him being picked at 6 OA, obviously. If he was picked in the 2nd round it would be different due to the floor. But I don't think you should be drafting for floor in essentially the top 5.

I agree Juolevi was a relatively low-risk, or safer, pick at the time compared to someone like Sergachev.

 

[4Twenty]

I was under the impression Virtanen was a boom/bust pick due to the fact he was being drafted on upside based on a relatively small, and not repeated, WHL sample size. The idea was his head would catch-up with his physical tools, which it never did. The fear was his toolset wouldn't translate to the NHL due to poor hockey IQ, which turned out to be correct.

That's in the context of him being picked at 6 OA, obviously. If he was picked in the 2nd round it would be different due to the floor. But I don't think you should be drafting for floor in essentially the top 5.

I agree Juolevi was a relatively low-risk, or safer, pick at the time compared to someone like Sergachev.

Maybe I just remember it differently, but I seem to recall that people thinking that at least he could be a 3rd liner with his size, speed and physical play, thus the high floor.

 

[TruGr1t]

Maybe I just remember it differently, but I seem to recall that people thinking that at least he could be a 3rd liner with his size, speed and physical play, thus the high floor.

Well, he was being drafted on the 45-goal season, basically. The debate was whether that was a one-off. It was why guys like Button had him ranked as far back as the ~40s, I believe. There were some who thought his ceiling was a third liner.

 

[Fire Benning]

Virtanen's concern was always his hockey IQ, he was barely a PPG in junior while scoring 45 goals with a couple of overage players I believe.

I'm not sure he's the best comparison for Podkolzin, with him the talent is there but it hasn't matched his production. He might be more of a project player and it sounds like he's going to play out his KHL contract before he comes over which goes for 2 more years.

 

[BeardyCanuck03]

From what I'm gathering it's not a hockey IQ issue with Podkolzin, it's that he plays too safe.

 

[4Twenty]

From what I'm gathering it's not a hockey IQ issue with Podkolzin, it's that he plays too safe.

Where are you gathering this?

I've never heard/read that.

The gripe seems to almost be 100% based on his club statistics or lacktherof.

 

[Mr. Canucklehead]

I was under the impression Virtanen was a boom/bust pick due to the fact he was being drafted on upside based on a relatively small, and not repeated, WHL sample size. The idea was his head would catch-up with his physical tools, which it never did. The fear was his toolset wouldn't translate to the NHL due to poor hockey IQ, which turned out to be correct.

That's in the context of him being picked at 6 OA, obviously. If he was picked in the 2nd round it would be different due to the floor. But I don't think you should be drafting for floor in essentially the top 5.

I agree Juolevi was a relatively low-risk, or safer, pick at the time compared to someone like Sergachev.

Virtanen was indeed a boom/bust. I remember Bob McKenzie saying he had the rare "grand slam" potential of size, speed and skill. Bob also ranked him 7th in his final rankings (Nylander and Ehlers were 9th and 10th, and Ritchie was ahead of Virtanen at 6th). I view the Virtanen pick as a swing for the fences that just ultimately didn't pan out (or hasn't yet, anyway).

Juolevi was a slightly different story. Still ranked in the Canucks' wheelhouse (Bob had him at 6th, Canucks drafted 5th) but the forward available - Tkachuk - was a dramatically superior prospect, and the Canucks reached for Juolevi based on positional need. IMO.

 

[docbenton]

Podkolzin is a great player, I'd be very happy with him at 10 as long as he's doesn't interview horribly. Elite skill, incredible motor, he's a skate-and-shoot guy first and foremost but I've no concerns about his awareness or playmaking ability, he's shown great anticipation and vision including in the VHL and is always influencing the play against men which few young players are able to do.

My final list looks something like this:

1. Hughes
2. Kakko

3. Turcotte
4. Boldy
5. Podkolzin
6. Zegras
7. Byram
8. Newhook
9. Dach

10. Caufield
11. Broberg
12. York
13. Thomson
14. Krebs
15. Cozens
16. Soderstrom
17. Heinola
18. Brink
19. Lavoie
20. Kaliyev

 

[Love]

I’d be really happy with Newhook or Cozens. Like both those players a lot.

 

[Bleach Clean]

Podkolzin is a great player, I'd be very happy with him at 10 as long as he's doesn't interview horribly. Elite skill, incredible motor, he's a skate-and-shoot guy first and foremost but I've no concerns about his awareness or playmaking ability, he's shown great anticipation and vision including in the VHL and is always influencing the play against men which few young players are able to do.

My final list looks something like this:

1. Hughes
2. Kakko

3. Turcotte
4. Boldy
5. Podkolzin
6. Zegras
7. Byram
8. Newhook
9. Dach

10. Caufield
11. Broberg
12. York
13. Thomson
14. Krebs
15. Cozens
16. Soderstrom
17. Heinola
18. Brink
19. Lavoie
20. Kaliyev

Nice list, a few comments:

- I'm going from recall here, but I remember you saying that you did not like Zegras. That he wasn't as skilled as people thought. Was this you? If so, why the change?

- Boldy ahead of Byram and Cozens? Again, going from recall, I thought you had Cozens in the top5. If I'm wrong, my mistake.

- Big drop for Cozens.

- What makes Newhook better than Dach for you?

 

[biturbo19]

I don't think that is the case at all, the guy is very good along the wall and in a battle, something Jake still struggles very much with. He also seemingly knows how to get open in the offensive zone without the puck, Jake still doesn't seem to grasp this.

Feels like a very lazy comparison.

I think it comes down to his lack of production in league play and his russian contract. But take a boo on youtube at that league he plays in, it's freakin' garbage hockey with so much dead puck era hooking/holding it's tough to watch.

I'm not saying Podkolzin is like a "carbon copy" of Virtanen, they have a lot of different elements to them, obviously. But like Virtanen, he's got quite a bit of "straight line player" and "tunnel vision" to his game. A lot of the same sort of, "drive down the wing and take a shot or loop around" north-south, and skating himself out of opportunities. He is better than Virtanen along the wall and on the cycle. But i think there's still room to question how well he really sees the ice consistently.



Though you're probably right, in that a lot of people are just writing him off on box score scouting. That's pretty typical.

Virtanen was indeed a boom/bust. I remember Bob McKenzie saying he had the rare "grand slam" potential of size, speed and skill. Bob also ranked him 7th in his final rankings (Nylander and Ehlers were 9th and 10th, and Ritchie was ahead of Virtanen at 6th). I view the Virtanen pick as a swing for the fences that just ultimately didn't pan out (or hasn't yet, anyway).

Juolevi was a slightly different story. Still ranked in the Canucks' wheelhouse (Bob had him at 6th, Canucks drafted 5th) but the forward available - Tkachuk - was a dramatically superior prospect, and the Canucks reached for Juolevi based on positional need. IMO.

Yeah. Virtanen was always a swing for upside type pick. I think a lot of people got crossed up on the idea that as a toolsy guy, he had a seemingly higher "floor" as a 4th line crash and bang grinder at worst. But you don't pick in the Top-10 for "floor". He was the guy, because he had big upside as a freakish fast, physical goal-scorer. Hasn't really materialized, but that was obviously the "boom" scenario.

It's where the Russian factor carries some more risk with Podkolzin i think. If he's going to take time to really find a scoring touch at the NHL level when his tools no longer set him apart so much, and doesn't get the icetime and paydays, that's where guys like that seem to find their way back home. Like Nichushkin for example. Who also, unlike Virtanen...doesn't necessarily have the physical energy player game to plug right into that sort of role if it doesn't work out as a scorer either.

 

[biturbo19]

Nice list, a few comments:

- I'm going from recall here, but I remember you saying that you did not like Zegras. That he wasn't as skilled as people thought. Was this you? If so, why the change?

- Boldy ahead of Byram and Cozens? Again, going from recall, I thought you had Cozens in the top5. If I'm wrong, my mistake.

- Big drop for Cozens.

- What makes Newhook better than Dach for you?

That's an interesting take on Zegras. Whoever's it is.

I'm not completely sold on Zegras, but it's not about the skill for me at all. He seems to have that in abundance. It's more the bit of floating in his game. Lack of consistent engagement. He actually reminds me a bit of Baertschi as a prospect, where he never really lacked skill...but needed to find that higher engagement level to actually put a lot of that skill to better use and find a place in the NHL.

I'd still be just fine with Zegras at 10. There's too much skill there to overlook. Just that there might be others available with a lot of skill in their own right, and a bit more engagement and willingness to grind when they need to as well.

 

[Zombotron]

Now that you're here, BT, what do you think of Patrik Puistola as a potential second-round pick?

 

[CanuckCity]

If we're prioritizing speed how does that rule out Caulfield but not Boldy?

I'd be super happy with Krebs at 10. TBH I can get behind any of the forwards, although Podkolzin would make me a bit uneasy.

 

[Bettman Returnz]

Why do a lot more people have cozens dropping (potentially out of top 10)? I’ve seen him ranked as high as 3 but not so much lately...