2019 NHL Draft, #LoseForHughes, etc.

[Melvin]

Here's how things are looking, statistically:

1. Kakko
2. Kokkonen
3. Hughes
4. Dach
5. Kaliev
6. Zegras
7. Pelletier
8. Legare
9. Suzuki
10. Cozens

 

[Hollywood Burrows]

[mark ruffalo voice] there's a kakko AND a kokkonen??

 

[Melvin]

[mark ruffalo voice] there's a kakko AND a kokkonen??

Defender with 10 points in 22 games so far in Liiga. Heiskanen in his draft year had 10 in 37, for comparison.

 

[Get North]

It's unlikely someone like Luke Toporowski will drop to our 2nd and probably a reach with our 1st, but I really like this player. He's really mean but he's got a lot of skill in his game too and he thinks well. Max Jones was someone I liked in 2016, but he was a projected late 1st and we had the #5 pick. Similar players, but Topo is a rare breed and we could use some of that in our line-up.

 

[Bleach Clean]

The only players that I would be excited for are

Hughes
Kakko
Dach

okay with

Cozens
Byram (only because of the need on D, and no faith in Juolevi)

Not really interested in anyone else (unless if we are picking past like 7).

I would suggest consideration be given to Turcotte, Suzuki and Soderstrom as high as the 3rd overall pick.

 

[Bleach Clean]

Here's how things are looking, statistically:

1. Kakko
2. Kokkonen
3. Hughes
4. Dach
5. Kaliev
6. Zegras
7. Pelletier
8. Legare
9. Suzuki
10. Cozens

Melvin, can you provide a breakdown of the statistical analysis used here? I had a feeling that Zegras and Suzuki would weigh in favourably here, but I do not have the data to support that assertion.

Dach and Cozens have separated themselves statistically. Where before it was close, or Cozens was ahead, now it's clearly Dach.

Kakko being at the top doesn't surprise me. Neither does the fact that Kokkonen is showing well in the department.

 

[Blade Paradigm]

Here is a shift-by-shift of Jack Hughes from last week's game against Bowling Green:

 

[shottasasa]

Here is a shift-by-shift of Jack Hughes from last week's game against Bowling Green:

I didn't know Jon Goodman did play by play.

Hughes was the best skater on the ice by a mile, but I'm not sure he looked quite like a number 1 pick. Too much stickhandling to nowhere and unforced errors, reminded me of Leipsic. Only one game though against a college team.

 

[Askel]

Here's how things are looking, statistically:

1. Kakko
2. Kokkonen
3. Hughes
4. Dach
5. Kaliev
6. Zegras
7. Pelletier
8. Legare
9. Suzuki
10. Cozens

Are your stats based on points only?

 

[Blade Paradigm]

I didn't know Jon Goodman did play by play.

Hughes was the best skater on the ice by a mile, but I'm not sure he looked quite like a number 1 pick. Too much stickhandling to nowhere and unforced errors, reminded me of Leipsic. Only one game though against a college team.

That tends to be how he plays. He skates well, picks up speed quickly through the neutral zone, and tries to navigate the puck around the opponent. His shot isn't any better than his brother's, nor does he have too many other dimensions than his quick dashes, wide curls around the opposing defense, and crisp passes. He takes a lot of risks with the puck.

There are numerous other shift-by-shift videos of him from this season.

The things you've mentioned are exactly why I have reservations about Jack Hughes. He will look good with other great players, but I don't think he is capable of scoring without support.

This video is from a month ago:



Fortunately, the Canucks have several players he could play with if he ends up in Vancouver.

 

[Blade Paradigm]

Vasili Podkolzin is a player I really like. He's smart, shifty, stickhandles smoothly and deceptively, possesses a great shot arsenal, and defends well.

Here is a game from his VHL stint a few weeks ago. The VHL is the second-tier men's league in Russia, a step below the KHL.



Here he was at the Hlinka tournament in August:



His performance at the World Juniors should shed light on whether teams will view him as a Top 5 player.

 

[Zombotron]

I was impressed by Robert Mastrosimone going PPG, but Yegor Afanasyev is up to 24P in 16GP at the USHL level. My potato-drafting self will be keeping an eye on him.

 

[Melvin]

Melvin, can you provide a breakdown of the statistical analysis used here? I had a feeling that Zegras and Suzuki would weigh in favourably here, but I do not have the data to support that assertion.

Dach and Cozens have separated themselves statistically. Where before it was close, or Cozens was ahead, now it's clearly Dach.

Kakko being at the top doesn't surprise me. Neither does the fact that Kokkonen is showing well in the department.

It's nothing complicated. Just the standard potato level analysis of points adjusted for league, position, draft number and height.

I have yet to find any compelling evidence that anything more complicated yields better results.

 

[wetcoast]

Lots of good if centers this year...something we could really use

 

[Josepho]

It's nothing complicated. Just the standard potato level analysis of points adjusted for league, position, draft number and height.

I have yet to find any compelling evidence that anything more complicated yields better results.

Do you have a rough idea of where Brett Leason would rank through this?

I get that this is his 3rd year of draft eligibility but his numbers are phenomenal.

 

[timw33]

Had a first hand look at Dach at the Royals game tonight. Not sure if this is a regular thing, but he looks like he's doing the bare minimum at all times and just refused to keep his feet moving/stay engaged in the play. Blessed with great size and reach, but didn't really use it to his advantage, especially when playing against tiny Victoria players. The PP clearly runs through him, but he put a lot of passes into the feet of his teammates tonight. Obviously just one game, but definitely did not see the clear Top-5 talent you would expect.

 

[Melvin]

Do you have a rough idea of where Brett Leason would rank through this?

I get that this is his 3rd year of draft eligibility but his numbers are phenomenal.

Currently have him 12th

 

[xtra]

Currently have him 12th

I might have missed it but does your model take into account age? If it’s his 3rd draft that must put him around 20 years old and comparing him to 18 year olds without accounting for age would skewer the results

 

[Josepho]

I might have missed it but does your model take into account age? If it’s his 3rd draft that must put him around 20 years old and comparing him to 18 year olds without accounting for age would skewer the results

I can't imagine him being anything other than 1st without putting age into consideration.

 

[Melvin]

I might have missed it but does your model take into account age? If it’s his 3rd draft that must put him around 20 years old and comparing him to 18 year olds without accounting for age would skewer the results

It accounts for it only by draft year. It knows it's his third year of eligibility.

 

[BerSTUzzi]

Had a first hand look at Dach at the Royals game tonight. Not sure if this is a regular thing, but he looks like he's doing the bare minimum at all times and just refused to keep his feet moving/stay engaged in the play. Blessed with great size and reach, but didn't really use it to his advantage, especially when playing against tiny Victoria players. The PP clearly runs through him, but he put a lot of passes into the feet of his teammates tonight. Obviously just one game, but definitely did not see the clear Top-5 talent you would expect.

That sounds like Dach, one game bare minimum and you are left wondering how is he a 1st round. The next game he puts in full effort and you are like legit 1st rounder, top talent.

 

[xtra]

It accounts for it only by draft year. It knows it's his third year of eligibility.

Thanks

 

[Icebreakers]

We need to give Horvat a flotation device from this draft. Find him a damn proper linemate.

 

[Josepho]

One last thing on Leason because I have no life, here's how he compares to every 2017 first-round drafted forward still playing in the CHL. Dude has literally gotten a point in every game this season and is the easily the most productive player on a team that only has 1 loss this entire WHL season.

Brett Leason (WHL) - 59/26 = 2.27 P/G
Cody Glass (WHL) - 43/22 = 1.95 P/G
Morgan Frost (OHL) - 48/27 = 1.78 P/G
Owen Tippett (OHL) - 31/20 = 1.55 P/G
Nick Suzuki (OHL) - 39/26 = 1.5 P/G

Gonna be curious to see how he fares on the next McKenzie rankings but at this point it just seems flat out stupid to let this guy slip past the top 50 just because he's older. But I really don't know where he'll go, might be another Arvidsson-like scenario.

Haven't watched a second of his play but this really is something else.

 

[Bleach Clean]

It's nothing complicated. Just the standard potato level analysis of points adjusted for league, position, draft number and height.

I have yet to find any compelling evidence that anything more complicated yields better results.

What’s your equivalency for the BCHL again? I’m wondering how Newhook didn’t rank in the top10?