2019-2020 St. Louis Blues - Defending the Cup - Part 3: The Prelude to Playoff Positioning

[Brian39]

You are arguing that his comp is Grzelcyk after the 17/18 season. There is 0% chance he takes 1.5M for 2 years IMO.

Then I'd wish him the best of luck finding an offer sheet or not playing. If I were Army, I wouldn't give him more money than that based on the risk that he might get more money than that from an offer sheet.

There is zero indication that he is in the Blues' long term plans as a medium cost player if Petro is here. The Scandella extension cements Parayko's partner for the foreseeable future. Berube clearly has zero interest playing Dunn with Petro. Mikkola appears NHL ready. Perunovich will be knocking on the door soon. We signed Faulk to be an offensive guy. There doesn't appear to be any avenue where Dunn is here long term. His value to the franchise is being a guy that can produce for as cheap as possible for the next 1 or 2 years and then get moved. That value goes way down if you have to pay him his market value next year. Unless I can get him for the price I want for next season, the asset returned from an offer sheet is as valuable as what he offers.

From a business standpoint, the Blues don't have much or any interest in maintaining a positive relationship with him during negotiations with him this summer. A Dunn negotiation should be about fitting him on the roster without having to move another piece than the 2-3 we already have to move.

He is absolutely worth more than $1.5M. That doesn't mean the Blues have to offer that or that they should offer that.

 

[bleedblue1223]

Then I'd wish him the best of luck finding an offer sheet or not playing. If I were Army, I wouldn't give him more money than that based on the risk that he might get more money than that from an offer sheet.

There is zero indication that he is in the Blues' long term plans as a medium cost player if Petro is here. The Scandella extension cements Parayko's partner for the foreseeable future. Berube clearly has zero interest playing Dunn with Petro. Mikkola appears NHL ready. Perunovich will be knocking on the door soon. We signed Faulk to be an offensive guy. There doesn't appear to be any avenue where Dunn is here long term. His value to the franchise is being a guy that can produce for as cheap as possible for the next 1 or 2 years and then get moved. That value goes way down if you have to pay him his market value next year. Unless I can get him for the price I want for next season, the asset returned from an offer sheet is as valuable as what he offers.

From a business standpoint, the Blues don't have much or any interest in maintaining a positive relationship with him during negotiations with him this summer. A Dunn negotiation should be about fitting him on the roster without having to move another piece than the 2-3 we already have to move.

He is absolutely worth more than $1.5M. That doesn't mean the Blues have to offer that or that they should offer that.

Berube paired Dunn with Petro plenty of times when we needed offense. I get that you don't value him, but we shouldn't act like his actual value is that low.

 

[Brian39]

Berube paired Dunn with Petro plenty of times when we needed offense. I get that you don't value him, but we shouldn't act like his actual value is that low.

Dunn was Petro's 4th most frequent line mate this year. He was also Parayko's 4th most frequent line mate this year. Guys ahead of Dunn to play with Petro: Faulk, Parayko and Gunnar. Guys ahead of Dunn to play with Parayko: J-Bo, Scandella, and Petro.

That is not a value judgment. That is how Berube chose to deploy him. That deployment doesn't suggest that Berube is eager to put Dunn in the top 4 long term.

 

[bleedblue1223]

Dunn was Petro's 4th most frequent line mate this year. He was also Parayko's 4th most frequent line mate this year. Guys ahead of Dunn to play with Petro: Faulk, Parayko and Gunnar. Guys ahead of Dunn to play with Parayko: J-Bo, Scandella, and Petro.

That is not a value judgment. That is how Berube chose to deploy him. That deployment doesn't suggest that Berube is eager to put Dunn in the top 4 long term.

Didn't say Berube was eager, but you said he had 0 interest. Jbo and Scandella don't overlap, it's best to view them as the same player. When we needed offense, we loaded the top 4 with Dunn and Faulk up, whichever one wasn't already in the top 4 at the time. When Parayko missed time, Dunn got a bigger role. Clearly there was some trust there, it wasn't 0.

 

[Brian39]

Didn't say Berube was eager, but you said he had 0 interest. Jbo and Scandella don't overlap, it's best to view them as the same player. When we needed offense, we loaded the top 4 with Dunn and Faulk up, whichever one wasn't already in the top 4 at the time. When Parayko missed time, Dunn got a bigger role. Clearly there was some trust there, it wasn't 0.

A 3rd pairing D man who slides up the lineup when there are injuries is not how teams want to use a medium cost player. Berube has demonstrated zero interest to use Dunn as Petro's actual D partner. Occasional situational usage that adds up to 3 or 4 shifts a game is not what you want to get out of a medium cost player. Berube has made it clear that he doesn't intend to expand Dunn's usage unless he has to. Nothing about Berube's decisions suggests that Dunn-Petro is going to be the top pair long term. Nothing about Berube's decisions suggests that Dunn-Parayko is going to be the other top 4 pair long term. 330 of Dunn's 1016 even strength minutes have been with either Petro or Parayko. That's down from 587 of his 1144 the year before. Nothing about Berube's usage of Dunn suggests that he will get deployed the way you would want a medium cost player to get deployed.

 

[izzy]

If Husso doesn't make the NHL roster out of camp, he will have to pass through waivers. This is the last year he was waivers-exempt. If he doesn't make the team, it means that the team is comfortable moving on from him.

i cant see him getting claimed at the beginning if he doesnt make it. most teams have their starting duo planned going in and hes not proven yet

wouldnt say the same later in the year depending on his ahl showing

 

[Mike Liut]

Are they still talking about July to start up the season? Or is that idea gone now?

 

[Brian39]

Are they still talking about July to start up the season? Or is that idea gone now?

I don't believe anything has been eliminated or confirmed as an option. Eveything I have read is couched in "the NHL is looking into the possibility of..." LeBrun had an article in the Athletic today about the NHL doing research on 12 NHL cities that could potentially be used to host games if/when they resume, so it seems clear that the NHL is willing to resume play with no fans in the arenas. I'd be surprised if a July start was off the table given that.

I'd imagine any time frame that is even remotely possible is still on the table.

 

[MissouriMook]

Where am I saying it is likely that he accepts the 2nd offer? What Army offers vs what he is likely to accept are very different things.

My point is that my only other offer if Dunn didn't want to accept the $1.5M AAV would be 1 year at $1M. If I'm Army, I'm not negotiating beyond that. Dunn can sit out if he wants or seek an offer sheet. If he sits out, then we'll see what Perunovich has to offer in camp and reassess from there. I'm more than happy to give Perunovich a chance to steal Dunn's job if Dunn wants to hold out. If he gets an offer sheet I'd consider matching, but otherwise those two offers are the options he would have from the St. Louis Blues. I think he would ultimately accept the $1.5M AAV 2 year deal. It is feasible (although I think unlikely) that Dunn takes the 1 year, $1M deal and it is feasible (although I think unlikely) that Dunn finds someone to send him an offer sheet.

I think the most sensible approach for Army is to offer Dunn something along the lines of a 6 year deal for around $21M-$24M, with the understanding that he gets a 1 year deal for $$1.5M for next season and the remaining 5 years and remaining dollars in a new deal signed on January 1 (or whenever an extension will be allowed) to get him what he's looking for. That leaves the unavoidable risk of a catastrophic injury happening in the three months before the long-term extension can be signed, but I feel like most players and agents believe Army is a man of his word and wouldn't change the verbal agreement solely based on a poor start to next season.

 

[Brian39]

I think the most sensible approach for Army is to offer Dunn something along the lines of a 6 year deal for around $21M-$24M, with the understanding that he gets a 1 year deal for $$1.5M for next season and the remaining 5 years and remaining dollars in a new deal signed on January 1 (or whenever an extension will be allowed) to get him what he's looking for. That leaves the unavoidable risk of a catastrophic injury happening in the three months before the long-term extension can be signed, but I feel like most players and agents believe Army is a man of his word and wouldn't change the verbal agreement solely based on a poor start to next season.

I'm not sure that Army can make that promise if we extend Petro for $8M+. Petro at $8M+ means $23M+ tied up in Petro, Faulk, Scandella and Parayko for 2021/22. Maybe we could make it work with another $4-5M tied up in Dunn for 21/22, but then we have to give Parayko a raise for 22/23 without any of them coming off the books. I don't think Army can promise a $4-5M AAV to Dunn in the future until we know what Seattle is taking from us. I think the best he could tell Dunn is "this is what we would like to offer you next summer if we can."

I also don't think that is great value for Dunn if he isn't being offered immediate financial security. If he plays on a cheap deal in 2020/21, he will have arbitration rights that summer and has a lot of leverage. Dunn might be able to earn close to that AAV in arbitration without selling UFA years. Even if he falls short, he should be able to get $3M+ in arbitration next year. I'd get selling a couple UFA years at $4-5M if he was getting the immediate financial security of that money guaranteed immediately, but I don't think it makes sense to commit to that AND take a financially risky deal. I think it would 100% be in Dunn's best interest to say "if I'm taking a big 1 year discount now, I'm going to get every dime out of you I can in my remaining 3 RFA years and then go get a huge payday as a 27 year old UFA."

 

[Stupendous Yappi]

I made a prediction that play would resume more like early June. At the time I was assuming playing in front of empty arenas. I am now thinking it’s more likely there will be fans, and that it will be later in the summer. I think they may have limited capacity, like only 1/3 of the seats or something to allow distance. I also think only a few communities which have progressed to Phase 3 of the federal plan will be considered. I bet several teams will still play away from home and that players and coaches will be sequestered during the playoffs. But at this point I’ll be shocked if the Stanley Cup is not awarded this year.

 

[Mike Liut]

I made a prediction that play would resume more like early June. At the time I was assuming playing in front of empty arenas. I am now thinking it’s more likely there will be fans, and that it will be later in the summer. I think they may have limited capacity, like only 1/3 of the seats or something to allow distance. I also think only a few communities which have progressed to Phase 3 of the federal plan will be considered. I bet several teams will still play away from home and that players and coaches will be sequestered during the playoffs. But at this point I’ll be shocked if the Stanley Cup is not awarded this year.

IMO, we aren’t going to see fans for a couple years. But I do think they’ll play in empty stadiums.

 

[WATTAGE4451]

i cant see him getting claimed at the beginning if he doesnt make it. most teams have their starting duo planned going in and hes not proven yet

wouldnt say the same later in the year depending on his ahl showing

Your mostly right but its still possible if there was a scenario where a team had one of their 2 goalies get injured during the end of preseason.

 

[Stupendous Yappi]

IMO, we aren’t going to see fans for a couple years. But I do think they’ll play in empty stadiums.

The Phase plan the White House is putting out sounds like movie theaters, etc, can reopen at Phase 3. That's probably a couple months to cycle through the phases if things are going well. They'll have to make some modifications, and I'm not sure how many people will line up to buy the first ticket, but if movies are happening, then high school football will happen. If that happens, then pro sports will find a way to get some spectators in there.

 

[Mike Liut]

The Phase plan the White House is putting out sounds like movie theaters, etc, can reopen at Phase 3. That's probably a couple months to cycle through the phases if things are going well. They'll have to make some modifications, and I'm not sure how many people will line up to buy the first ticket, but if movies are happening, then high school football will happen. If that happens, then pro sports will find a way to get some spectators in there.

I’m just afraid when they start opening things up, we’ll see a jump in Corona cases. Then we’ll see another shutdown. Same thing is happening to a city in China of 5 million people.

 

[SIU LAW]

Army was on 101 today (interview is online). He spoke again of the cap likely being flat, which isn’t news, but what was interesting was that (paraphrasing here) because the NHL wanted to be fair, the cap apparently isn’t going lower.

 

[Mike Liut]

Hope the rumors are true about starting the playoffs early July. A 3 week mini camp in June to prepare.

 

[Celtic Note]

Army was on 101 today (interview is online). He spoke again of the cap likely being flat, which isn’t news, but what was interesting was that (paraphrasing here) because the NHL wanted to be fair, the cap apparently isn’t going lower.

I wonder if this means they think the cap will be flat to make up for this year regardless if things get better?

 

[BleedBlueForever]

Can someone explain how the NTC work for Bozak, Steen, and Faulk?

According to CapFriendly they all NTCs:

Bozak: CLAUSE DETAILS: Player submits a 10 team no trade list (July 1, 2018 through January 31, 2021)

So does that mean we can trade him to any of the other 21 teams at anytime?

Steen: CLAUSE DETAILS: No Trade Clause expires on February 1, 2021

So does this mean we can't trade him at all? Meaning we would need to buyout his contract or waive him and hope someone claims him?

Faulk: CLAUSE DETAILS: Player submits a 15 team trade list
CONTRACT NOTE: Faulk signed a 7 year contract extension on September 24, 2019 which also included a Full No Trade Clause be added to the final year of his current deal.

So it looks like Faulk's new contract has a full NTC through 2025. So same as Steen? Or hope Seattle takes him in the expansion draft?

 

[Brockon]

Can someone explain how the NTC work for Bozak, Steen, and Faulk?

According to CapFriendly they all NTCs:

Bozak: CLAUSE DETAILS: Player submits a 10 team no trade list (July 1, 2018 through January 31, 2021)

So does that mean we can trade him to any of the other 21 teams at anytime?

Steen: CLAUSE DETAILS: No Trade Clause expires on February 1, 2021

So does this mean we can't trade him at all? Meaning we would need to buyout his contract or waive him and hope someone claims him?

Faulk: CLAUSE DETAILS: Player submits a 15 team trade list
CONTRACT NOTE: Faulk signed a 7 year contract extension on September 24, 2019 which also included a Full No Trade Clause be added to the final year of his current deal.

So it looks like Faulk's new contract has a full NTC through 2025. So same as Steen? Or hope Seattle takes him in the expansion draft?

That's my understanding of it. Though, Bozak's 10 teams could easily be the ones with cap space and make it all but impossible to trade him if that was his wish.

The interesting part about the Faulk NTC clause is that if Petro does end up walking, Faulk becomes our 2RD - which places him with a steady partner, a defined role (likely offensive) and bigger minutes for the 2020-21 season. I'm not sure he gets exposed in the Seattle draft (Parayko, Faulk and Dunn/Scandella protected).

If Petro extends, then absolutely you expose Faulk as expansion bait and hope they take that contract from us. Petro, Parayko and Dunn/Scandella protection for sure, then we figure out which 7 forwards to protect.

 

[simon IC]

That's my understanding of it. Though, Bozak's 10 teams could easily be the ones with cap space and make it all but impossible to trade him if that was his wish.

The interesting part about the Faulk NTC clause is that if Petro does end up walking, Faulk becomes our 2RD - which places him with a steady partner, a defined role (likely offensive) and bigger minutes for the 2020-21 season. I'm not sure he gets exposed in the Seattle draft (Parayko, Faulk and Dunn/Scandella protected).

If Petro extends, then absolutely you expose Faulk as expansion bait and hope they take that contract from us. Petro, Parayko and Dunn/Scandella protection for sure, then we figure out which 7 forwards to protect.

Faulk as our #2 RD is not a good situation. The word "downgrade" doesn't even come close.

 

[Celtic Note]

Faulk as our #2 RD is not a good situation. The word "downgrade" doesn't even come close.

If you lose Petro and keep Faulk, I would have to expect a search for a left handed, #2 defenseman. Faulk clearly isn’t a #2 at this point. But, he may be passable as a #3. I would assume we try to keep a “big three” approach to our D like Armstrong has tried to do throughout his tenure here.

 

[bleedblue1223]

If you lose Petro and keep Faulk, I would have to expect a search for a left handed, #2 defenseman. Faulk clearly isn’t a #2 at this point. But, he may be passable as a #3. I would assume we try to keep a “big three” approach to our D like Armstrong has tried to do throughout his tenure here.

Right. I'd be curious how Parayko would be utilized as well. Would Parayko remain in the majority shutdown role or would he be used like Petro, more minutes overall, but with a more balanced or even offensive approach. What sort of partner for Faulk would we go after?

 

[Celtic Note]

Right. I'd be curious how Parayko would be utilized as well. Would Parayko remain in the majority shutdown role or would he be used like Petro, more minutes overall, but with a more balanced or even offensive approach. What sort of partner for Faulk would we go after?

I would think Parayko would still be used with an emphasis on defense first, since Faulk can’t do it.

For Faulk I would find a guy who can be the sturdy shutdown guy but also who can move the puck and setup plays. We need that guy to cover his mistakes. Faulk is also no puck distributor. I think we need that element on a top 2 pair as well.

 

[MissouriMook]

I would think Parayko would still be used with an emphasis on defense first, since Faulk can’t do it.

For Faulk I would find a guy who can be the sturdy shutdown guy but also who can move the puck and setup plays. We need that guy to cover his mistakes. Faulk is also no puck distributor. I think we need that element on a top 2 pair as well.

Could Scandella be that "sturdy shutdown guy" to pair with Faulk if we need to? It is nice to have Scandella-Parayko right now as a shutdown pair, but having a pairing where each compliments the other instead of having two guys that do the same job seems like it would work better. You could always flip the pairings around when protecting a lead late in the game and reunite Scandella and Parayko.

To me, the bottom line is we inarguably have a much better defense with Pietrangelo than without him, but I think we still have the personnel to have a Top 10 defense if he walks.