2019-2020 St. Louis Blues - Defending the Cup - Part 3: The Prelude to Playoff Positioning

[BlueDream]

I think this slump has gone on long enough that we could barbecue a few sacred cows to shake things up a bit and see if we can get some more consistent play. If I could make 4 changes (outside of a trade) here is what I would do.

1. Move Schenn to wing and Bozak back to center. Schenn needs a wake up call Ashe has been pretty ineffective for most of the season.

2. Split Schwartz and Schenn. They’ve both been off quite a bit this season and I would expect that some of the problem is that when one is struggling it fuels the other to struggle as well.

3. Stop with the offside D experiment in the Top 4. It hasn’t worked with any of 27, 55 or 72 there. Bortz is the only righty that has shown an ability to flourish on the left. Put 29-27, 77-55 and 41-72 together and leave them alone for a while with 4 as the extra.

4. The “second” PP unit goes out first. End of discussion.

12-90-57
9-21-10
17-18-33
20-49-70

29-27
77-55
41-72

50 gets 2/3 of the remaining starts.

Can't really disagree with any of this.

That looks like the lineup we should roll with into the playoffs, with MAYBE Tarasenko eventually replacing Kyrou. We'll see what happens on that front but a Schwartz-Thomas line would be a good line to slide him into.

I'm sure Mikkola will be in the lineup tomorrow in place of Gunny. We'll see how he does and we may add a defenseman at the deadline and go from there.

But giving up a lot for a guy like Kreider won't solve much at this point. Even Toffoli I'm not sure where he would fit anymore, because selling high on Sanford now gets risky.

 

[simon IC]

I think this slump has gone on long enough that we could barbecue a few sacred cows to shake things up a bit and see if we can get some more consistent play. If I could make 4 changes (outside of a trade) here is what I would do.

1. Move Schenn to wing and Bozak back to center. Schenn needs a wake up call Ashe has been pretty ineffective for most of the season.

2. Split Schwartz and Schenn. They’ve both been off quite a bit this season and I would expect that some of the problem is that when one is struggling it fuels the other to struggle as well.

3. Stop with the offside D experiment in the Top 4. It hasn’t worked with any of 27, 55 or 72 there. Bortz is the only righty that has shown an ability to flourish on the left. Put 29-27, 77-55 and 41-72 together and leave them alone for a while with 4 as the extra.

4. The “second” PP unit goes out first. End of discussion.

12-90-57
9-21-10
17-18-33
20-49-70

29-27
77-55
41-72

50 gets 2/3 of the remaining starts.

Excellent post! I agree on all counts. I have been advocating Schenn back to wing for a while now.

 

[MissouriMook]

Can't really disagree with any of this.

That looks like the lineup we should roll with into the playoffs, with MAYBE Tarasenko eventually replacing Kyrou. We'll see what happens on that front but a Schwartz-Thomas line would be a good line to slide him into.

I'm sure Mikkola will be in the lineup tomorrow in place of Gunny. We'll see how he does and we may add a defenseman at the deadline and go from there.

But giving up a lot for a guy like Kreider won't solve much at this point. Even Toffoli I'm not sure where he would fit anymore, because selling high on Sanford now gets risky.

I can’t see Sanford going anywhere at this point. I think the only players on the current roster that are vulnerable would be Blais and Faulk. I can’t see Army moving anyone else at this point.

 

[tomin]

 

[WeWentBlues]

This is the weirdest stretch of games I can remember. Feels like we could have won every one of them.

Probably karma for all the chest thumping going on earlier in the season that no one in the West could beat us.

 

[Bobby Orrtuzzo]

What we really need is Sanford vs. Bortuzzo II

 

[execwrite1]

From Korac -

As terrific as David Perron has been, he's been stuck on 23 goals now for a season-high seven straight games. Brayden Schenn has no goals in six straight and just three his past 22 games, Ryan O'Reilly has no goals in seven straight and two in his past 20, and Jaden Schwartz has two goals in 13.

 

[bleedblue1223]

Perron and Schenn were scoring at unsustainable rates. This team without Tarasenko lacks that goal-scorer that makes us a real contender. Yes, we need the "big guys" to step up, but they were over-performing a bit in terms of production.

 

[JoshFromMO]

Perron and Schenn were scoring at unsustainable rates. This team without Tarasenko lacks that goal-scorer that makes us a real contender. Yes, we need the "big guys" to step up, but they were over-performing a bit in terms of production.

Their backs got tired after carrying this team the greater part of 3 months lol

 

[MissouriMook]

Perron and Schenn were scoring at unsustainable rates. This team without Tarasenko lacks that goal-scorer that makes us a real contender. Yes, we need the "big guys" to step up, but they were over-performing a bit in terms of production.

Some of the scoring woes in general could be attributed to the lack of shot volume. Petro and Perron are the only ones on pace for over 200 SOG. Without Tarasenko in the lineup, who has been between 264 and 306 the last five full seasons, the shot volume has gotten spread around quite a bit.

Interestingly, although maybe indicative of nothing, we also have six forwards currently with S% in excess of 13% - Sanford, Schenn, Perron, Blais, Sundqvist and Thomas. Only Schenn and Perron from that list are averaging 2 shots per game, so maybe part of the solution to our scoring woes is that the guys we have on the ice just need to shoot more. One of the more interesting stat lines is that Jaden Schwartz has taken 142 shots (2.41 s/g) and is shooting at 12.7%. I wonder what these stats would look like if you subtracted goals and shots from his totals for deflections, because when he actually shoots the puck he really doesn't look like a 12.7% shooter.

 

[bleedblue1223]

Some of the scoring woes in general could be attributed to the lack of shot volume. Petro and Perron are the only ones on pace for over 200 SOG. Without Tarasenko in the lineup, who has been between 264 and 306 the last five full seasons, the shot volume has gotten spread around quite a bit.

Interestingly, although maybe indicative of nothing, we also have six forwards currently with S% in excess of 13% - Sanford, Schenn, Perron, Blais, Sundqvist and Thomas. Only Schenn and Perron from that list are averaging 2 shots per game, so maybe part of the solution to our scoring woes is that the guys we have on the ice just need to shoot more. One of the more interesting stat lines is that Jaden Schwartz has taken 142 shots (2.41 s/g) and is shooting at 12.7%. I wonder what these stats would look like if you subtracted goals and shots from his totals for deflections, because when he actually shoots the puck he really doesn't look like a 12.7% shooter.

Individual shooting really isn't a big deal when looking at the team as a whole. Last season we averaged about 31.75 shots per game, and this year we are at about 30.5. Our scoring as a team has stayed pretty consistent, around middle of the pack, and should be a little higher than last season based on averages.

Teams go through highs and lows, it's just something we have to work through and get figured out.

 

[SIU LAW]

One reason for optimism: Gunnar and Bortz had/have a lot of rust to shake off due to recent injury or prolonged healthy scratches. By the time the playoffs roll around, they should be up to speed. I feel that is one of (multiple) reasons the defense was shakey in recent weeks. Many teams are going all out for playoff spots and these two guys don’t have their legs or timing down.

 

[Bye Bye Blueston]

One reason for optimism: Gunnar and Bortz had/have a lot of rust to shake off due to recent injury or prolonged healthy scratches. By the time the playoffs roll around, they should be up to speed. I feel that is one of (multiple) reasons the defense was shakey in recent weeks. Many teams are going all out for playoff spots and these two guys don’t have their legs or timing down.

You don't really think both will be able to stay healthy from now through playoffs, do you?

 

[Ranksu]

One reason for optimism: Gunnar and Bortz had/have a lot of rust to shake off due to recent injury or prolonged healthy scratches. By the time the playoffs roll around, they should be up to speed. I feel that is one of (multiple) reasons the defense was shakey in recent weeks. Many teams are going all out for playoff spots and these two guys don’t have their legs or timing down.

How on earth Mikkola was flying when he was given opportunity? Didn't see he hand rust in his legs?

Gunnar is worm body, who will get burned when he face better skater, he can't defend net or hold his man. Bortuzzo has that mean streak in his game which is good, but lately he only takes bad penalties. Tho I really like his offensive game when he's on.

When everybody are healthy Gunnar shouldn't be on ice. Gunnar scored that miracle goal at finals, but in my eyes he hasn't been anything as good what he was last season.

 

[SIU LAW]

You don't really think both will be able to stay healthy from now through playoffs, do you?

The universe owes us now, right?

How on earth Mikkola was flying when he was given opportunity? Didn't see he hand rust in his legs?

Mikkola was playing regularly in the AHL when he was called up, correct? Also, size and wingspan help mask some mistakes.

Gunner has a history of ramping up and improving over time after his injury sabbaticals.

 

[MissouriMook]

The universe owes us now, right?

It's looking more and more like the calendar year of 2019 was a karmic gifts of some sort, and now we're back to Blues-ing. I'm not sure we can expect anything from the universe for another 50 years.

 

[Brockon]

It's looking more and more like the calendar year of 2019 was a karmic gifts of some sort, and now we're back to Blues-ing. I'm not sure we can expect anything from the universe for another 50 years.

Kind of ironic that this season almost looks to be an inverted image of last year... Instead of charging up the standings, we're slowly trickling down them.

At this rate, if someone doesn't rekindle the fire that carried us to glory last year, we're going to fighting for a wild card spot very soon.

Before commenting on the "panic and hysteria nature of this post" I suspect that there will be a turn around soon - probably resulting from a JBo visit to the team and skating with them at practice in a non-contact jersey. This team will halt their fall and will make the playoffs - I just question if we've got it in us for back to back runs, as we're looking a bit gassed of late and that defensive excellence that defined the team in recent years is absent lately.

 

[ChicagoBlues]

My skates are getting dull
I’m too worn out to play
The coach is breaking butt
And the puck won’t find its way

I got the Saint Louis Bluuuuuues
Saint Louis Bluuuuues
Saaaaiiint Louis Blues
SaAaIiInt Louis Blues

I said my skates gettin‘ dull
And I’m too worn out to play

Today

 

[Davimir Tarablad]

The universe owes us now, right?

Gotta rack up the suffering at some point over the next 50+ years before the universe aligns for us to win again.

 

[simon IC]

I know +/- is a difficult stat to interpret, but I found some interesting things on the official NHL site. St. Louis Blues Stats | 2019-2020. Highest +/- for a defenseman on the team is Alex Pietrangelo with a team leading +18. Justin Faulk had the lowest at -11. (He is actually our only defenseman in the - column). Disappointments are Schenn at -11 and Schwartz at -12. Pleasant surprises are Bortuzzo at +11 and Dunn at +10. Finally, Zach Sanford is +14! Interesting, huh? I'll let you all draw your own conclusions.

 

[Ranksu]

My skates are getting dull
I’m too worn out to play
The coach is breaking butt
And the puck won’t find its way

I got the Saint Louis Bluuuuuues
Saint Louis Bluuuuues
Saaaaiiint Louis Blues
SaAaIiInt Louis Blues

I said my skates gettin‘ dull
And I’m too worn out to play

Today

Please share if you have more of those poems.

 

[Renard]

My skates are getting dull
I’m too worn out to play
The coach is breaking butt
And the puck won’t find its way

I got the Saint Louis Bluuuuuues
Saint Louis Bluuuuues
Saaaaiiint Louis Blues
SaAaIiInt Louis Blues

I said my skates gettin‘ dull
And I’m too worn out to play

Today

With this post, you have become the poet laureate of the forum.

 

[MissouriMook]

I know +/- is a difficult stat to interpret, but I found some interesting things on the official NHL site. St. Louis Blues Stats | 2019-2020. Highest +/- for a defenseman on the team is Alex Pietrangelo with a team leading +18. Justin Faulk had the lowest at -11. (He is actually our only defenseman in the - column). Disappointments are Schenn at -11 and Schwartz at -12. Pleasant surprises are Bortuzzo at +11 and Dunn at +10. Finally, Zach Sanford is +14! Interesting, huh? I'll let you all draw your own conclusions.

I forget who it was, but someone posted on Twitter recently how deceiving those +/- stats are given that players get a - if the other team scores into the empty net when we pull our goalie. I believe I heard a few games ago that we have been outscored 14-0 with the goalie pulled this season, which would certainly account for a lot of the bad numbers for some of the top offensive players.

 

[Brian39]

I think this slump has gone on long enough that we could barbecue a few sacred cows to shake things up a bit and see if we can get some more consistent play. If I could make 4 changes (outside of a trade) here is what I would do.

1. Move Schenn to wing and Bozak back to center. Schenn needs a wake up call Ashe has been pretty ineffective for most of the season.

2. Split Schwartz and Schenn. They’ve both been off quite a bit this season and I would expect that some of the problem is that when one is struggling it fuels the other to struggle as well.

3. Stop with the offside D experiment in the Top 4. It hasn’t worked with any of 27, 55 or 72 there. Bortz is the only righty that has shown an ability to flourish on the left. Put 29-27, 77-55 and 41-72 together and leave them alone for a while with 4 as the extra.

4. The “second” PP unit goes out first. End of discussion.

12-90-57
9-21-10
17-18-33
20-49-70

29-27
77-55
41-72

50 gets 2/3 of the remaining starts.

I don't have a problem throwing some lines into the blender, but I disagree about point #2. Schwartz and Schenn are on pace for 62 and 65 points. They are both a bit negative on expected goal differential, but nothing that is way low. Considering the rotating door on their RW since Tarasenko went down, I'm not sure what more could reasonably be expected from that line. They aren't both going to be 70+ point players when the 3rd piece of the line is a middle 6 guy punching above his weight class. Again, I don't have a problem trying out new combos and I don't think they absolutely have to stay together all year. Schenn/Schwartz have absolutely been slumping over the last month and might need a kick start to get out of that. But overall for the season, they are playing right at expectations and in line with their contracts.

As for the PP units, I'm confused by the 2nd unit. They are dynamic moving the puck, but can't seem to translate it to goals all that well. Perron, Schwartz and Schenn are the only forwards with a PP goal since 1/1/20. The 2nd unit has scored 3 times since the New Year, with one of them being a nice passing play that led to a cross ice pass to Faulk who was down low. That goal was a good example of the unit's puck movement leading to a goal. Parayko has the other 2, one of them being a shot from the circle he buried on a rebound off the post and the other being a D to D one-timer that both our units seem fond of trying. The D have generated almost all of the scoring by that unit for a moth and a half. Meanwhile, the top unit has scored 11 goals in the same time frame. So overall, the top unit is outscoring the 2nd unit 11-3 in the new year, which is a higher ratio than the PP TOI advantage they hold. Our PP% is 5th in the league since 1/1/20. 9th since 2/1/20.

The top unit's inability to enter the zone effectively is frustrating as hell to watch, but overall they aren't nearly the problem people are suggesting they are. Let's pretend that every one of our PPs had ended the instant our top unit came off the ice (but every other NHL team still got the full 2 minutes with both of their units). Our PP% would still be 13th in the NHL since the New Year. Our top unit has scored as many or more goals than 17 other teams since 1/1/20 (not other teams' top units, the total PP goals of those 17 teams). The top unit is performing. The PP is not something that needs to be fixed.

 

[Stupendous Yappi]

The addition of Scandella was much needed. It remains to see if he is the answer. Small mercy that Bouwmeester’s incident occurred early enough to respond.

I was one who thought Bouwmeester was just done early last year. In hindsight, a lot was timing, but for a while there he seemed to always be in the wrong place at the wrong time. But full credit, he elevated his game in the postseason. If you’d told me I would be worried about replacing him, during the mid-point of last season, I’d have been surprised. Maybe it’s partly how he’s gone out, suddenly and dramatically, but I’m still down over it. I hope the team can make up for his loss, especially on the PK.

Armstrong’s comments about Tarasenko and hockey trades sounds like Vlad is on pace for a return sooner than later. That would be just swell. He’ll need some time to get the mojo back.