Speculation: 2019-2020 Sharks Roster Discussion

[FeedingFrenzy]

If Jumbo is coming back I dont see us keeping Pavelski. Pavs slows down our top 6 too much to slot in there and with Thornton centering the 3rd line theres really no spot for him. Im hoping Nyquist is resigned as the Meier-Couture-Nyquist line looked great in the playoffs (out played Colorado's big line which was extremely impressive)

Meier-Couture-Nyquist
Kane-Hertl-Labanc
Chehkovich-Thornton-Chmelevski
Sorensen-Goodrow-Karlsson

Vlasic-Burns
Dillon-Karlsson
Simek/Ryan-Heed

Adding a 3rd line winger and/or a 3rd pairing defenseman would be ideal

We had 24.7mil in CAP before EK and Braun deals. So as of now we have 17mil.
Meier, Lebanc, Nyquist=12 mil
JT 3mil
And re-sign Gambrell/ryan/heed
Love the 3rd line idea, give them 10 games with JT see how it goes.
Wish we could lose Melker and Goodrow.

 

[Lebanezer]

 

[themelkman]

Wasnt anyway we were going for him I dont think

 

[Lebanezer]

More than Kane. I don't like that contract.

 

[Barrie22]

How is this possible? He was jets property at tye end of the season.

 

[PackShark]

How is this possible? He was jets property at tye end of the season.

They dealt his rights to Philly for a draft pick a week or so ago.

 

[tiburon12]

More than Kane. I don't like that contract.

more than Kane and produces less than Kane (though i know that's not the only metrics to judge value). Prices keep going up for talent, which is why im always OK with DW signing people early when prices are lower.

If Couture didnt sign last year, how much would he command now? 9.5?

 

[one2gamble]

The 1% in the NHL keep getting richer just like the real world. Top 6 talent is getting expensive and the lower guys are getting squeezed. It's making the draft way more important and in theory picks should be getting more valuable in the future

 

[JoeThorntonsRooster]

More than Kane. I don't like that contract.

A slightly lower cap hit percentage than Kane's. I don't personally think either are the type of player to tie roughly 9% of your cap into, though.

 

[tiburon12]

The 1% in the NHL keep getting richer just like the real world. Top 6 talent is getting expensive and the lower guys are getting squeezed. It's making the draft way more important and in theory picks should be getting more valuable in the future

I wonder if that is something DW will use to persuade Meier and Labanc to take smaller deals now. less money now could lead to significantly more money later.

 

[Eklund72]

For the right price I’d be interested in Ferland. Our bottom 6 is super soft. He would change that instantly.

 

[KirbyDots]

For the right price I’d be interested in Ferland. Our bottom 6 is super soft. He would change that instantly.

He'll be overpaid by somebody.

 

[WSS11]

I was going to ask if you guys would rather bring Pavs back at 6MM x 2 years or Nyquist back at 6MM x 4 years assuming we could unload Melker and Dell?

 

[Fistfullofbeer]

I was going to ask if you guys would rather bring Pavs back at 6MM x 2 years or Nyquist back at 6MM x 4 years assuming we could unload Melker and Dell?

I would prefer Nyquist.

 

[JoeThorntonsRooster]

I feel like we need to take an honest look at Pavelski's next contract here.

To put this into perspective, 37 year old Patrick Marleau hit UFA coming off of a 27 goal, 46 point season. The Sharks offered him 6.67% of the cap on a 2 year term, and he ended up taking 8.33% of the cap on a 3 year term. The Sharks offered 0.145% cap hit per point and the Leafs offered 0.181% of the cap hit per point. At this year's rumored cap ceiling of $82M, that becomes the Sharks offering $5.5M/2Y and another team signing him at $6.83M/3Y.

Now consider that Pavelski is 34 years old, coming off of a 38 goal, 64 point season. If you pay him the same percentage of the cap hit per point, he gets a 9.28% offer from the Sharks on a 2 year term and a 11.59% offer from another team on a 3 year term. This is a very imperfect way to calculate things, but I think it's more than reasonable when you consider that Pavelski is 3 years younger and truly is a premier goal scorer.

At those numbers, you're looking at the Sharks offering $7.6M/2Y and another team offering $9.5M/3Y. And given the fact that Pavelski is 3 years younger than Marleau was, you're probably looking at something more like a $7.6M/3Y offer for Pavelski from the Sharks and a $9.5M/4Y offer from a desperate team. I think we need to come to terms with the idea that that is pretty close to what is going to happen.

By the way, the GM that paid Marleau $6.25M/3Y? His team currently has over $21M in projected cap space and they've reportedly been looking to add another impact forward. I could definitely see Lou Lamoirello and the Islanders making a $9.5M/4Y offer to Pavelski in UFA.

 

[Doctor Soraluce]

I was going to ask if you guys would rather bring Pavs back at 6MM x 2 years or Nyquist back at 6MM x 4 years assuming we could unload Melker and Dell?

There is almost no reasonable contract that I would bring Pavs back on. He should get 6 to 7+ for 3 years but no way do I want the Sharks to pay that. Nyqvist is younger faster and better defensively. A full season and he likely has a ton of assists playing with Meier and Couture as his triggers.

I feel like we need to take an honest look at Pavelski's next contract here.

To put this into perspective, 37 year old Patrick Marleau hit UFA coming off of a 27 goal, 46 point season. The Sharks offered him 6.67% of the cap on a 2 year term, and he ended up taking 8.33% of the cap on a 3 year term. The Sharks offered 0.145% cap hit per point and the Leafs offered 0.181% of the cap hit per point. At this year's rumored cap ceiling of $82M, that becomes the Sharks offering $5.5M/2Y and another team signing him at $6.83M/3Y.

Now consider that Pavelski is 34 years old, coming off of a 38 goal, 64 point season. If you pay him the same percentage of the cap hit per point, he gets a 9.28% offer from the Sharks on a 2 year term and a 11.59% offer from another team on a 3 year term. This is a very imperfect way to calculate things, but I think it's more than reasonable when you consider that Pavelski is 3 years younger and truly is a premier goal scorer.

At those numbers, you're looking at the Sharks offering $7.6M/2Y and another team offering $9.5M/3Y. And given the fact that Pavelski is 3 years younger than Marleau was, you're probably looking at something more like a $7.6M/3Y offer for Pavelski from the Sharks and a $9.5M/4Y offer from a desperate team. I think we need to come to terms with the idea that that is pretty close to what is going to happen.

By the way, the GM that paid Marleau $6.25M/3Y? His team currently has over $21M in projected cap space and they've reportedly been looking to add another impact forward. I could definitely see Lou Lamoirello and the Islanders making a $9.5M/4Y offer to Pavelski in UFA.

Can't look at those number without looking at Pavs inflated shooting percentage last season. It is far more likely that last season was the anomaly and not the norm going forward. My bet is he doesn't sniff 30 goals again in his career unless it's playing on another team that needs to run him into the ground.

 

[JoeThorntonsRooster]

There is almost no reasonable contract that I would bring Pavs back on. He should get 6 to 7+ for 3 years but no way do I want the Sharks to pay that. Nyqvist is younger faster and better defensively. A full season and he likely has a ton of assists playing with Meier and Couture as his triggers.


Can't look at those number without looking at Pavs inflated shooting percentage last season. It is far more likely that last season was the anomaly and not the norm going forward. My bet is he doesn't sniff 30 goals again in his career unless it's playing on another team that needs to run him into the ground.

You think Pavelski's agent is going to buy that? Not likely. He's going to be looking at comparables and trying to get his client what he's worth. Based on what Marleau got in 2017, there's a precedent in place for Pavelski earning $9.5M/4Y. There are probably better comparables for Pavelski at this stage of his career, but that's the first one that comes to mind and I think I'm being reasonable with my calculations for Pavelski.

Pavelski is going to be the 4th biggest name on the market behind Panarin, Duchene, and Bobrovsky. The first and the third biggest names are going to Florida. Multiple teams are going to make a hard run at Duchene and offer 8 figure salaries. Teams will strike out on Duchene and Joe Pavelski will be the best player remaining. In a world where Jeff Skinner is making $9M/8Y and Pavelski is the best UFA remaining, teams are probably going to offer at least $9M to Pavelski over 3 or 4 years.

 

[spintops]

I feel for Pavs - most under appreciated player for the sharks. The moment he originally signed that 5 year contract half the forum wanted to trade him because "it was going to be a ugly contract". Instead he produced even higher numbers while earning the C and being an all around great shark. Now he's a UFA when we just handed out huge money to new faces and nobody wants him back "at any term". I mean I totally get the reason and I doubt he's that sad about it- just feel for the guy/situation

 

[Doctor Soraluce]

You think Pavelski's agent is going to buy that? Not likely. He's going to be looking at comparables and trying to get his client what he's worth. Based on what Marleau got in 2017, there's a precedent in place for Pavelski earning $9.5M/4Y. There are probably better comparables for Pavelski at this stage of his career, but that's the first one that comes to mind and I think I'm being reasonable with my calculations for Pavelski.

Pavelski is going to be the 4th biggest name on the market behind Panarin, Duchene, and Bobrovsky. The first and the third biggest names are going to Florida. Multiple teams are going to make a hard run at Duchene and offer 8 figure salaries. Teams will strike out on Duchene and Joe Pavelski will be the best player remaining. In a world where Jeff Skinner is making $9M/8Y and Pavelski is the best UFA remaining, teams are probably going to offer at least $9M to Pavelski over 3 or 4 years.

I'm not looking at it from Pavs POV, I'm looking at it from DWs. I'm always a Sharks fan before the individual player. That being said, as I've stated repeatedly, I love Pavs and I hope he cashes in with a huge contract but not from the Sharks. To be fair though, show me a 35 year old who got 9+mil with a similar stat line? And future HOFers aren't his comparables.

 

[Cappuccino]

I was going to ask if you guys would rather bring Pavs back at 6MM x 2 years or Nyquist back at 6MM x 4 years assuming we could unload Melker and Dell?

For me it would be Pavs because of term. A Nyquist type will be available every deadline, not sure I would like to commit to 6M for 4 years.

 

[Celly4Celebrini]

I was going to ask if you guys would rather bring Pavs back at 6MM x 2 years or Nyquist back at 6MM x 4 years assuming we could unload Melker and Dell?

i go back and fourth on Nyquist. I think that id rather have someone with a better shot than Nyquist, but im not sure that player is available. And he did show good chemistry with Couture-Meier. But at the same time im not sure thats worth 6m+. If he was 1m cheaper id be more likely to say yes to that.

 

[fasterthanlight]

I don't want Nyquist tbh. There are better ways to fill his role that wouldn't cost assets

 

[Juxtaposer]

I like Gus a lot, but some of the contracts getting handed out right now are stupid. We can’t afford what some desperate team is likely to offer him.

 

[Gilligans Island]

If the Cap comes in at $82M, I don't see a way to re-sign Pavs OR Gus or any UFA top 9 fwd for that matter. Below is a 22-man roster.

• Even if Meier does bridge at $4M, the cap space becomes only $2.433M. Not enough to sign either of those 2 or another top 9 fwd.
• Next priority for DW is to trade Dillon or Melker but you have to figure their replacements' cap hits.
• If you trade Dillon, I like that idea about trading for a cheap 3rd pairing dman like Pateryn or Harrington. Save $1-2M more (depending on any retention for Pateryn).
• Trade Melker and replace him with someone at $700K -> save $1.3M in cap

 

[Fistfullofbeer]

If the Cap comes in at $82M, I don't see a way to re-sign Pavs OR Gus or any UFA top 9 fwd for that matter. Below is a 22-man roster.

• Even if Meier does bridge at $4M, the cap space becomes only $2.433M. Not enough to sign either of those 2 or another top 9 fwd.
• Next priority for DW is to trade Dillon or Melker but you have to figure their replacements' cap hits.
• If you trade Dillon, I like that idea about trading for a cheap 3rd pairing dman like Pateryn or Harrington. Save $1-2M more (depending on any retention for Pateryn).
• Trade Melker and replace him with someone at $700K -> save $1.3M in cap

View attachment 237833

If Meier does NOT bridge the only way we sign a UFA forward (including Pavs) is if we trade either Melker + Dell OR Dillon. Even then it will be tough.