Ararana
Registered User
Can't give the Avs credit, their prospects are forcing their hand apparently
This guy wrote an entire article about Avs prospects and being patient and didn't mention Byram once.
Yep title was misleading. He simply focused on two college prospects and the benefits of waiting and using the college route
I probably shouldn’t go there but I have nothing better to do, so sorry.
Yeah the Avs should get credit for adding talent, which extra picks and a massive windfall of a trade helps. But it’s how they transition that talent marks if they have a functioning system much less a model one. If they can get Sampo to the NHL matters more than keeping him in the NCAA (which I agree with). Kennedy just wanted to talk about a couple NCAA players is pretty much the basis of that article, so I get it.
The fact that all their second year pros (Lewis, Dickinson, Barron, Anderson, Shvyrev) plus keeping Henry on the 4th line in addition to the requisite trip to the ECHL and they traded away their third year pros means they have not figured it out. The argument to that is all those dudes just weren’t good enough, which I’ve heard for at least 7 years now and there’s always hope for the next group including guys like Mutala. Yeah it’s tough for all non-premium prospects but the fact that the Avs have turned out just one own drafted second rounder (Galiardi and I guess one could argue Pickard sort of) in their history should be a big concern.
I get the conservative first year approach but that means they have to be equally as pro-active in the second and third years in regards to planning for an opportunity and path to becoming a NHLer. A player basically has that three years until their waiver exemption is up regardless of their age or pedigree to stick. Exceptions like Graves require a fresh start somewhere and he even cleared waivers once. Bowers and Timmins are not going to be on the roster this fall because they didn’t get a callup. I doubt they will even pencil Kaut it but he has a chance at least. Hopefully there’s a plan to get all three of them major callups so they can transition in second year pro (Kaut does have 2 waiver exempt years left), which is the most important year to transitioning to becoming a regular in the NHL (I have done a little research on this and what it takes for second rounders to make it which is where the Avs greatly lag behind the league average 30% success rate). They absolutely can’t wait around and watch AHL vets get the call next year and hope for a couple desperation games in the spring.
This is where patience can’t be confused with a lack of plan, which I still find as a major concern with the development system. Delaying getting guys in the AHL and starting that clock seems to be a good idea. The AHL should be a springboard more than anything. I believe some time is helpful to anyone but players with a future absolutely can’t stay there long. There has to be a plan to move them along and it needs to be progressive and proactive in the second and third years.
I probably shouldn’t go there but I have nothing better to do, so sorry.
Yeah the Avs should get credit for adding talent, which extra picks and a massive windfall of a trade helps. But it’s how they transition that talent marks if they have a functioning system much less a model one. If they can get Sampo to the NHL matters more than keeping him in the NCAA (which I agree with). Kennedy just wanted to talk about a couple NCAA players is pretty much the basis of that article, so I get it.
The fact that all their second year pros (Lewis, Dickinson, Barron, Anderson, Shvyrev) plus keeping Henry on the 4th line in addition to the requisite trip to the ECHL and they traded away their third year pros means they have not figured it out. The argument to that is all those dudes just weren’t good enough, which I’ve heard for at least 7 years now and there’s always hope for the next group including guys like Mutala. Yeah it’s tough for all non-premium prospects but the fact that the Avs have turned out just one own drafted second rounder (Galiardi and I guess one could argue Pickard sort of) in their history should be a big concern.
I get the conservative first year approach but that means they have to be equally as pro-active in the second and third years in regards to planning for an opportunity and path to becoming a NHLer. A player basically has that three years until their waiver exemption is up regardless of their age or pedigree to stick. Exceptions like Graves require a fresh start somewhere and he even cleared waivers once. Bowers and Timmins are not going to be on the roster this fall because they didn’t get a callup. I doubt they will even pencil Kaut it but he has a chance at least. Hopefully there’s a plan to get all three of them major callups so they can transition in second year pro (Kaut does have 2 waiver exempt years left), which is the most important year to transitioning to becoming a regular in the NHL (I have done a little research on this and what it takes for second rounders to make it which is where the Avs greatly lag behind the league average 30% success rate). They absolutely can’t wait around and watch AHL vets get the call next year and hope for a couple desperation games in the spring.
This is where patience can’t be confused with a lack of plan, which I still find as a major concern with the development system. Delaying getting guys in the AHL and starting that clock seems to be a good idea. The AHL should be a springboard more than anything. I believe some time is helpful to anyone but players with a future absolutely can’t stay there long. There has to be a plan to move them along and it needs to be progressive and proactive in the second and third years.
Those two never played in the AHL.Last year’s Conn Smythe winner would like a word.
Edit: also Stastny. Am I misreading you here or...
Not that you’re wrong. Just it isn’t AS bad as you said.
Or what if they're trying to insulate them instead of allowing them to be fed to the wolves which is happening to the Barracuda? They have an extremely young team and besides Blichfield - who is more in terms of a prospect finding all the right tools at the right time - get ripped apart. I am not arguing per se because I don't understand how Dickinson and Shvyrev continue to be given absurdly low ice time, but Kroenke has always been a seniority-basis organisation. Just look at how they treated players like Iginla and how he was spoon-fed minutes even though he was clearly, CLEARLY past it. Only player that I suggest they mistreated in this respect was Hejduk, but it seemed that was more Sacco being an idiot than anything else.The fact that all their second year pros (Lewis, Dickinson, Barron, Anderson, Shvyrev) plus keeping Henry on the 4th line in addition to the requisite trip to the ECHL and they traded away their third year pros means they have not figured it out. The argument to that is all those dudes just weren’t good enough, which I’ve heard for at least 7 years now and there’s always hope for the next group including guys like Mutala.
Those two never played in the AHL.
It seems when their hand is forced things can work out. I often wonder how different things would have been had they drafted Girard for example. Successes through the system is where guys tend to get stuck. I agree some is poor drafting but lack of opportunity is just as much of a function.
Anyway, not trying to say the Avs don’t deserve some credit but it grinds my gears when it’s called “the system” is a model of success. If anyone I think Bednar deserves some credit for utilizing young players and having them achieve a higher level of success than many anticipated. I do think Cronin is a good teacher too but the org has to do their part to foster opportunity because NHL experience is part of growth as well.
Steve Moore was looking good until Beretuzzi decided to end his career.Those two never played in the AHL.
It seems when their hand is forced things can work out. I often wonder how different things would have been had they drafted Girard for example. Successes through the system is where guys tend to get stuck. I agree some is poor drafting but lack of opportunity is just as much of a function.
Anyway, not trying to say the Avs don’t deserve some credit but it grinds my gears when it’s called “the system” is a model of success. If anyone I think Bednar deserves some credit for utilizing young players and having them achieve a higher level of success than many anticipated. I do think Cronin is a good teacher too but the org has to do their part to foster opportunity because NHL experience is part of growth as well.
There does need to be a feeling down there in Loveland that there is a path for a young player to the NHL, rather than just "blow us away and we'll consider it, otherwise AHL vets with no future will get the nod by default". I feel like if Kaut wasn't a first round pick he would never in a million years have gotten a look last season.
To me drafting is easily the problem and until we actually see some results I wouldnt be getting my hopes up. Newhook and Timmins are the only 2 drafted prospects in our system I have any real expectations of being full time NHLers right now.
Pretty much this, personally I would love every prospect we draft to get at least one NHL game, but I don't think anybody should be mad when a 7th rounder in Travis Barron, a FA signing in Lewis, and a terrible selection in Anderson won't ever get an NHL game. They had a mountain to climb even before they were targeted by the Avs scout team. As you said, fringe players are so hard to predict because majority of the hockey world is filled with bottom 6ers and I am not really talking about Calverts', but more of the Josts' and Kamenevs'.Fringe prospects fail all the time. I don't think that is anything to get upset about, and like it or not the Barron, Anderson, Dickinson, Shvy, etc are all fringe prospects (as much as I love Shvy, he's fringe). To me, the big failures are Bigras and Meloche... and I think there are solid reasons.The others simply aren't good enough... Barron and Anderson shouldn't have gotten contracts. Dickinson was a shot on a kid that had an excellent freshman year in college, but has shown why he was passed over. Similar with Lewis... he works hard, but he's undersized and can't skate at a high pace.
If we look that the Avs roster when the shutdown happened, Compher, Graves, Frank, Z and Rants all spent a good amount of time with an Avs affiliate in the past few years. The AHL team isn't perfect and I don't think all development goes as planned... but there are 5 shining examples of success. LOC and Kaut both showed well in the NHL. Bowers and Timmins took strides forward in their development. It is easy to point out how bad they have done, but at least acknowledge their successes.
Tyler Weiss has had one of the most post-draft success compared to any one of our prospects.And other guys are showing well as well. Mutala, Annunen, Kovalenko, Zhuravlyov... all had good developmental seasons this year.
Pretty much this, personally I would love every prospect we draft to get at least one NHL game, but I don't think anybody should be mad when a 7th rounder in Travis Barron, a FA signing in Lewis, and a terrible selection in Anderson won't ever get an NHL game. They had a mountain to climb even before they were targeted by the Avs scout team. As you said, fringe players are so hard to predict because majority of the hockey world is filled with bottom 6ers and I am not really talking about Calverts', but more of the Josts' and Kamenevs'.
However, there is also a good point in that you also cannot stagnate your prospects either even though they might be fringe. I get that you want to insulate prospects and not to be fed to the wolves. There is also no doubt in my mind that players like Condra and Megna are better and more productive than Shvy, but keeping your prospect stuck in the bottom 6 in the freakin' AHL is also nonsense. You have to play favourites and sure playoff hockey is a great learning experience - especially in the AHL - where players like Condra/Megna help, you also need to find that balance. Shvyryov should be on the third line after playing on the fourth in the AHL last season, yet he's kept in the same position and worthless players like Joly, Wagner, Campbell, and Molino get to play over him because they for some reason. I am less concerned about others like Henry because they're rookies and like freshmen in the NCAA a certain amount expectations need to be reduced.
Tyler Weiss has had one of the most post-draft success compared to any one of our prospects.
Byram confirmed bust
It's unfortunate Byram didn't get another playoff run. Would have been huge for his development and confidence level going into next season after his slow start offensively.
Wonder if that may affect his chances of making the Avs next season?
FWIW I’m more optimistic about our 2nd-7 th rounders now than I have been in a while.
Unless he looks horrible in camp or the stoppage cuts into next season significantly I don’t see any way he’s sent back to junior again.
Obviously the outbreak is causing devastating real-world issues but the timing of this stoppage also sucks for the Avs. If next year gets chewed into at all that’s 2 disrupted seasons where we were just entering contender status and looking to keep the ball rolling.