2019-20 General Lightning Discussion - Part 3: Uncharted

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J T Money

Biggest Bozo
Jan 21, 2016
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Re-read my post, I addressed that specifically. You come to a settlement with the insurer for this season now, so they no longer have any interest in his health or injury this season. E.g., if the doctors think he's going to need to miss, say, 3/4 of the season, you offer the insurer now to settle for only half his salary (rather than 3/4) regardless of how many games he plays. It's good for them because they pay less than they'll probably need to, good for you because only team-friendly doctors will be assessing his ability to play.

I took your post ‘fines and penalties’ as from the NHL - which would certainly happen. I added the legal factor in my own post.

The problem is the insurance company wouldn’t settle prior to any claim because there’s always a chance he misses way less than you paid upfront. A lot of the variables would come down to what the insurer and insured’s contract dictates. Is it a season to season contract? Or a 10 year contract?

You would be hard pressed to find doctors willing to risk their license on fraudulent evaluations, much less to aid the Lightning’s cap woes by putting Stamkos on LTIR.

Now all of that is moot if Stamkos is legitimately injured and unable to play the season - yet gets cleared for/during the playoffs. His contract would be insured via terms agreed upon before he was even on LTIR (or if the Lightning are forced to get a new carrier for his contract).
 

Sky04

Registered User
Jan 8, 2009
29,101
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Re-read my post, I addressed that specifically. You come to a settlement with the insurer for this season now, so they no longer have any interest in his health or injury this season. E.g., if the doctors think he's going to need to miss, say, 3/4 of the season, you offer the insurer now to settle for only half his salary (rather than 3/4) regardless of how many games he plays. It's good for them because they pay less than they'll probably need to, good for you because only team-friendly doctors will be assessing his ability to play.

Ah yes, lets get doctors, pro-athletes and established businessmen to stake their careers and credibility on the line :laugh:
 

Sky04

Registered User
Jan 8, 2009
29,101
18,187
I took your post ‘fines and penalties’ as from the NHL - which would certainly happen. I added the legal factor in my own post.

The problem is the insurance company wouldn’t settle prior to any claim because there’s always a chance he misses way less than you paid upfront. A lot of the variables would come down to what the insurer and insured’s contract dictates. Is it a season to season contract? Or a 10 year contract?

You would be hard pressed to find doctors willing to risk their license on fraudulent evaluations, much less to aid the Lightning’s cap woes by putting Stamkos on LTIR.

Now all of that is moot if Stamkos is legitimately injured and unable to play the season - yet gets cleared for/during the playoffs. His contract would be insured via terms agreed upon before he was even on LTIR (or if the Lightning are forced to get a new carrier for his contract).

If he's legitimately injured and projectably out for the season, they wouldn't use that cap space up right away anyways, you still need to account for him if he comes back early, they'd wait as close to the deadline as possible before banking on LTIR relief and RFA's need to be signed by a certain point or they're ineligible for the season. Can you imagine if Stamkos was cleared half way through the season and Tampa blew out their cap already? They wouldn't be able to play any games until they are cap complaint, every team in the league would have them in a stranglehold due to time sensitivity and 2 pieces most likely to move would be freshly signed Sergachev & Cirelli. No GM would take that risk, that'd be embarrassing.
 
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Whoshattenkirkshoes

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Aug 11, 2014
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So if we lose a season we really get screwed with our deadline acquisitions?

They become UFA and we lose the cheap price?
 

Fabiobest

Italian Florida Man
Feb 4, 2017
8,639
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Turin, Italy
They were just talking about distant thunder and awesome fans of the Lightning and had to talk about the one and only Fabio from Italy ;)

Ian is an acquaintance of mine, so I listen every afternoon.



Don’t forget about the legal (criminal and civil) ramifications of defrauding the insurance company.

Zero chance they try to LTIR Stamkos unless he seriously can’t play.
Wow, nice to hear that :) :) :)
We're an amazing family, that's for sure. Proud to be a member of it :)
 
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Hoek

Legendary Poster A
May 12, 2003
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Tampa, FL
My understanding is you still have to get under the cap with the LTIR player's number included at the start of the season, THEN you can put them on LTIR to get relief. So Stamkos isn't a get out of jail free card regardless.
 
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The Gongshow

Fire JBB
Jul 17, 2014
25,779
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Toronto
So if we lose a season we really get screwed with our deadline acquisitions?

They become UFA and we lose the cheap price?

Correct. That said, Coburn and McElhinney would be off the books for a total of 3 million that could be given to one or both of Goodrow and or Coleman to stick around for another year or two.

We don't need Coburn and we run with a rookie backup goalie since Vasi takes most of the starts anyways.
 

deckercky

Registered User
Oct 27, 2010
9,379
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My understanding is you still have to get under the cap with the LTIR player's number included at the start of the season, THEN you can put them on LTIR to get relief. So Stamkos isn't a get out of jail free card regardless.

It depends. If the player is anticipated to be on LTIR at the start of the season, they can be placed on LTIR at any point, including the offseason (Toronto needed to do this last season).
 
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Peacefool

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Nov 15, 2019
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Correct. That said, Coburn and McElhinney would be off the books for a total of 3 million that could be given to one or both of Goodrow and or Coleman to stick around for another year or two.

We don't need Coburn and we run with a rookie backup goalie since Vasi takes most of the starts anyways.
I think we need goob backup goalie. Previous season Vasy played with injury and we all saw goals he was taken against CBJ,especially above blocker. We had DOmingue as back up and even thoygh injured Vasy was better than him (according to coaching staff) and we were screwed. Thats why we need good backup for long Play Off run. This year we were lucky Vasy was healthy,but who knows what future brings?
 

Byrddog

Lifer
Nov 23, 2007
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I am still not convinced that there is going to be a season and signing Sergi could be an indication. JBB either has a deal on the table to move out CAP if the season does start or he has a good indication that the season will be canceled one of these is true. It was no surprise that he signed Sergi first and I expect Cernak will be next. And If I were betting The rights to Cirelli and Johnson will be the trade for pricks aad a A prospect. JBB has shopped Killer, Johnson and other roster players with no reasonable hockey trade now he has went to plan B,C,D.

The make-up of the team required retaining the defensemen it is going to suck to lose 4 RFA's but there is no way Volkov, Joseph sign twoway contracts after having time in the league and lifting the cup. Cirelli a favorite here I know but you can't keep them all. And the NTC's and NMC's were given out for a reason and that has been attained over the least few years culminating last year. Hoping for a miracle to save Cirelli is now pointless.
 

Todd1a

Kucherov or prospect
Jun 19, 2014
16,558
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orlando, fl
I am still not convinced that there is going to be a season and signing Sergi could be an indication. JBB either has a deal on the table to move out CAP if the season does start or he has a good indication that the season will be canceled one of these is true. It was no surprise that he signed Sergi first and I expect Cernak will be next. And If I were betting The rights to Cirelli and Johnson will be the trade for pricks aad a A prospect. JBB has shopped Killer, Johnson and other roster players with no reasonable hockey trade now he has went to plan B,C,D.

The make-up of the team required retaining the defensemen it is going to suck to lose 4 RFA's but there is no way Volkov, Joseph sign twoway contracts after having time in the league and lifting the cup. Cirelli a favorite here I know but you can't keep them all. And the NTC's and NMC's were given out for a reason and that has been attained over the least few years culminating last year. Hoping for a miracle to save Cirelli is now pointless.

It doesn’t matter volkov and Joseph can sign one way deals and still go to the minors schenn did . All a one way deal means over a two way deal is that the player gets paid example the 735k I think volkov and Joseph get no matter if there in the ahl or nhl.
 

Todd1a

Kucherov or prospect
Jun 19, 2014
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orlando, fl
I am still not convinced that there is going to be a season and signing Sergi could be an indication. JBB either has a deal on the table to move out CAP if the season does start or he has a good indication that the season will be canceled one of these is true. It was no surprise that he signed Sergi first and I expect Cernak will be next. And If I were betting The rights to Cirelli and Johnson will be the trade for pricks aad a A prospect. JBB has shopped Killer, Johnson and other roster players with no reasonable hockey trade now he has went to plan B,C,D.

The make-up of the team required retaining the defensemen it is going to suck to lose 4 RFA's but there is no way Volkov, Joseph sign twoway contracts after having time in the league and lifting the cup. Cirelli a favorite here I know but you can't keep them all. And the NTC's and NMC's were given out for a reason and that has been attained over the least few years culminating last year. Hoping for a miracle to save Cirelli is now pointless.

cirell and cernak are are staying in Tampa on 3 year deals when it’s all said and done.

option 1. They trade johnson and a first round pick in 2021 to Detroit.

option 2. They trade killorn to Nashville for a 4th round pick in 2021.

3. option 3 they also trade Coburn somewhere for a 7th rounder.

if nobody wants killorn or johnson nexts then they move gourde and palat.

and if gourde or palat won’t waive there NTC then they waive them and there is no way they don’t get claimed in my opinion they can help way too many teams.

All 3 of these moves get us under the cap to sign cirell, cernak, volkov and Joseph.
 

PJ817

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Byrddog

Lifer
Nov 23, 2007
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cirell and cernak are are staying in Tampa on 3 year deals when it’s all said and done.

option 1. They trade johnson and a first round pick in 2021 to Detroit.

option 2. They trade killorn to Nashville for a 4th round pick in 2021.

3. option 3 they also trade Coburn somewhere for a 7th rounder.

if nobody wants killorn or johnson nexts then they move gourde and palat.

and if gourde or palat won’t waive there NTC then they waive them and there is no way they don’t get claimed in my opinion they can help way too many teams.

All 3 of these moves get us under the cap to sign cirell, cernak, volkov and Joseph.
Yes an all three weaken this team. Correct me If am wrong but were you not of those who was promotinh that Sergi, Cernak, Cirelli could all be kept for about 6 mil and that Sergi and Cirelli would not get over 3 mil?

Anywho now 2.4 over the cap After signing Cernak who is going to get 2 to 2.5 we will be right at 5 mil over. It makes no sense to move Johnson and Killer, Johnny had 14 goals and Killer 26 exactly who is going to make up those 40 goals? Cirelli sure is not even resigning Joseph and Volkov all three combines are not going to pot 40. It makes the most sense to combine Johnson with Cirelli but still your right at the top of the cap then is where you dump Coburn but thates the situation even muddier even with Coburn we only have 6 guys on the roster now Foote would be the 7th guy but there is not enough cap to even do that if you dump Coburn the you can put two ELC's on the roster on D not something that is a positive. I would guess the Coburn dump would get us Foote and Witkowski rotating on D but we are still at the top of the CAP with no flexability to make a move due to injury or a deadline add. I get it The numbers work to move both Johnson and Killorn but imagine the Adds Yzer would want to take 10 mil in CAP for the term left.
Now know this I was a season ticket holder in Nashville since inception until 2012 I know that team and Poile. Last year the Preds lost 11 million dollars they just let Craig Smith and Grandlund walk so yes they need scoring but the deeper question is why they let them walk. The reason is they lost 11 mil last year and if there is a season the ownership group does not have the stomach for half filled arenas to no fans icing a team whos window now looks to have closed with Rinne who has another year at 5 mil and no proven starter that is going to win 35 to 40 games. The Preds for years did exactly what the bolts are doing with Vasi continue to run him out there and pray he does not get injured because the back-up can not get it done. If Nashville wanted Killer he would have been signed and thats one place I would have liked to see him go cause I still pull for the Preds as well. And Killer would slide in on the 2nd line and give then a net front presence they have not had since Horqvist was traded. He would also help a near dead PP that the Preds have.

I like Gourde a lot but again your looking at a long term at over 5 while there are UFA's still unsigned out there with the same skillset that can be had for half the hit. Palat would be an option and I hated on him thru the last couple regular seasons but its tough to give up his 17 regular season goals and 11 in the playoffs to sign RFA's. Its a tough position but JBB has a plan or he would not have pulled the trigger on Sergi again there is a deal in place or he is convinced there is not going to be a season. Which might make some happy that want to keep Cirelli but it adds a year to Stammer, Kuch, Point, Vasi, Hedman aging does not stop and not playing for a year degrades any player. So in the end I still think Cernak is signed and Johnson and Cirelli is packaged it just makes sense.
 

Todd1a

Kucherov or prospect
Jun 19, 2014
16,558
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orlando, fl
Yes an all three weaken this team. Correct me If am wrong but were you not of those who was promotinh that Sergi, Cernak, Cirelli could all be kept for about 6 mil and that Sergi and Cirelli would not get over 3 mil?

Anywho now 2.4 over the cap After signing Cernak who is going to get 2 to 2.5 we will be right at 5 mil over. It makes no sense to move Johnson and Killer, Johnny had 14 goals and Killer 26 exactly who is going to make up those 40 goals? Cirelli sure is not even resigning Joseph and Volkov all three combines are not going to pot 40. It makes the most sense to combine Johnson with Cirelli but still your right at the top of the cap then is where you dump Coburn but thates the situation even muddier even with Coburn we only have 6 guys on the roster now Foote would be the 7th guy but there is not enough cap to even do that if you dump Coburn the you can put two ELC's on the roster on D not something that is a positive. I would guess the Coburn dump would get us Foote and Witkowski rotating on D but we are still at the top of the CAP with no flexability to make a move due to injury or a deadline add. I get it The numbers work to move both Johnson and Killorn but imagine the Adds Yzer would want to take 10 mil in CAP for the term left.
Now know this I was a season ticket holder in Nashville since inception until 2012 I know that team and Poile. Last year the Preds lost 11 million dollars they just let Craig Smith and Grandlund walk so yes they need scoring but the deeper question is why they let them walk. The reason is they lost 11 mil last year and if there is a season the ownership group does not have the stomach for half filled arenas to no fans icing a team whos window now looks to have closed with Rinne who has another year at 5 mil and no proven starter that is going to win 35 to 40 games. The Preds for years did exactly what the bolts are doing with Vasi continue to run him out there and pray he does not get injured because the back-up can not get it done. If Nashville wanted Killer he would have been signed and thats one place I would have liked to see him go cause I still pull for the Preds as well. And Killer would slide in on the 2nd line and give then a net front presence they have not had since Horqvist was traded. He would also help a near dead PP that the Preds have.

I like Gourde a lot but again your looking at a long term at over 5 while there are UFA's still unsigned out there with the same skillset that can be had for half the hit. Palat would be an option and I hated on him thru the last couple regular seasons but its tough to give up his 17 regular season goals and 11 in the playoffs to sign RFA's. Its a tough position but JBB has a plan or he would not have pulled the trigger on Sergi again there is a deal in place or he is convinced there is not going to be a season. Which might make some happy that want to keep Cirelli but it adds a year to Stammer, Kuch, Point, Vasi, Hedman aging does not stop and not playing for a year degrades any player. So in the end I still think Cernak is signed and Johnson and Cirelli is packaged it just makes sense.

JBB is keeping cirelli and cernak bottom line he is going to move two players out . Cirelli has higher upside then gourde, Palat, johnson or Killorn. No to your question I predicted sergachev would get 4.5 avv for 3 years , cirelli i project 4 avv for 3 years, cernak i project 3 avv for 3 years
 
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Byrddog

Lifer
Nov 23, 2007
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JBB is keeping cirelli and cernak bottom line he is going to move two players out . Cirelli has higher upside then gourde, Palat, johnson or Killorn. No to your question I predicted sergachev would get 4.5 avv for 3 years , cirelli i project 4 avv for 3 years, cernak i project 3 avv for 3 years
And the math still does not work even if JBB finds homes for Johnson and Killer that wouuld just barely cover Cernak, Cirelli and Sergi. Volkov and Joseph gone only 6 Dmen signed and no room for even Foot and remain under the cap any additional dumps like Coburn would only create another space to fill with yet another ELC. But you are correct if JBB can find a home for Johnny and Killer he could sign Cirelli but he has no flexibility for a injury or a deadline pick-up. And again where are the 40 goals that Killer and Johnson put up going to be replaced? Where is the 7th Dman that will surely be needed at some point in any season. McDonagh, Heddy Coburn Sergi and Cernak missed a combined total of 74 man games last year. ANd im not even going to count the number of man games lost from the forwards.

Even if Cirelli is bridged what is going to happen when Point comes due a raise in two years the cap is not certain chances are it will not be above 81 even then and a better chance that is drops again after another season of losses from a season with limited fans in seats or no season at all. I know what JBB said a couple months ago about keeping all three but that was before he ran into not being able to waive Johnson without any takers. There are still FA's out there that will be cheaper than Johnson or Killer as well and thats what JBB could have never seen coming. He will not be able to fulfil the promise to sign all three unless he hurts the roster. All of this is senseless speculation if there is no season. And the mixed messages coming from the league tell me that the chances are slipping. The players association are pushing for a Feb 1 Start that would only leave 6 moths to complete any season and the playoffs and still meet Daileys insistence that the 21-22 season start next Oct on schedule. Buttman says they have to have a 48 game minimum regular season. Contractually they can not play three days in a row so fopr a 48 game schedule there will be a minimum of 24 days off. Another statment impacting this was the NHL season would be complete before the Summer Olympics begin on July 23. All of that to say this JBB has a deal in place now or he knows there will be no season. If no he would not have committed to 4.8 Cap hit on Sergi. We should know pretty quick which one it is.
 

Todd1a

Kucherov or prospect
Jun 19, 2014
16,558
2,831
orlando, fl
And the math still does not work even if JBB finds homes for Johnson and Killer that wouuld just barely cover Cernak, Cirelli and Sergi. Volkov and Joseph gone only 6 Dmen signed and no room for even Foot and remain under the cap any additional dumps like Coburn would only create another space to fill with yet another ELC. But you are correct if JBB can find a home for Johnny and Killer he could sign Cirelli but he has no flexibility for a injury or a deadline pick-up. And again where are the 40 goals that Killer and Johnson put up going to be replaced? Where is the 7th Dman that will surely be needed at some point in any season. McDonagh, Heddy Coburn Sergi and Cernak missed a combined total of 74 man games last year. ANd im not even going to count the number of man games lost from the forwards.

Even if Cirelli is bridged what is going to happen when Point comes due a raise in two years the cap is not certain chances are it will not be above 81 even then and a better chance that is drops again after another season of losses from a season with limited fans in seats or no season at all. I know what JBB said a couple months ago about keeping all three but that was before he ran into not being able to waive Johnson without any takers. There are still FA's out there that will be cheaper than Johnson or Killer as well and thats what JBB could have never seen coming. He will not be able to fulfil the promise to sign all three unless he hurts the roster. All of this is senseless speculation if there is no season. And the mixed messages coming from the league tell me that the chances are slipping. The players association are pushing for a Feb 1 Start that would only leave 6 moths to complete any season and the playoffs and still meet Daileys insistence that the 21-22 season start next Oct on schedule. Buttman says they have to have a 48 game minimum regular season. Contractually they can not play three days in a row so fopr a 48 game schedule there will be a minimum of 24 days off. Another statment impacting this was the NHL season would be complete before the Summer Olympics begin on July 23. All of that to say this JBB has a deal in place now or he knows there will be no season. If no he would not have committed to 4.8 Cap hit on Sergi. We should know pretty quick which one it is.
Lets figure this out - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps


Many ways all three can get signed easy still
 

DistantThunderRep

Registered User
Mar 8, 2018
19,888
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And the math still does not work even if JBB finds homes for Johnson and Killer that wouuld just barely cover Cernak, Cirelli and Sergi. Volkov and Joseph gone only 6 Dmen signed and no room for even Foot and remain under the cap any additional dumps like Coburn would only create another space to fill with yet another ELC. But you are correct if JBB can find a home for Johnny and Killer he could sign Cirelli but he has no flexibility for a injury or a deadline pick-up. And again where are the 40 goals that Killer and Johnson put up going to be replaced? Where is the 7th Dman that will surely be needed at some point in any season. McDonagh, Heddy Coburn Sergi and Cernak missed a combined total of 74 man games last year. ANd im not even going to count the number of man games lost from the forwards.

Even if Cirelli is bridged what is going to happen when Point comes due a raise in two years the cap is not certain chances are it will not be above 81 even then and a better chance that is drops again after another season of losses from a season with limited fans in seats or no season at all. I know what JBB said a couple months ago about keeping all three but that was before he ran into not being able to waive Johnson without any takers. There are still FA's out there that will be cheaper than Johnson or Killer as well and thats what JBB could have never seen coming. He will not be able to fulfil the promise to sign all three unless he hurts the roster. All of this is senseless speculation if there is no season. And the mixed messages coming from the league tell me that the chances are slipping. The players association are pushing for a Feb 1 Start that would only leave 6 moths to complete any season and the playoffs and still meet Daileys insistence that the 21-22 season start next Oct on schedule. Buttman says they have to have a 48 game minimum regular season. Contractually they can not play three days in a row so fopr a 48 game schedule there will be a minimum of 24 days off. Another statment impacting this was the NHL season would be complete before the Summer Olympics begin on July 23. All of that to say this JBB has a deal in place now or he knows there will be no season. If no he would not have committed to 4.8 Cap hit on Sergi. We should know pretty quick which one it is.
Don't forget, sign Kovalchuk.
 
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