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2018 Top Shelf Prospects: New York Rangers Edition

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Stopped reading when I read Lias was a good/strong skater
 
European league guys are underrated here, NA leagues guys are mostly overrated here. Pionk is not 9th, if he's a prospect. Its unlikely players like Miller or Lundkvist will ever be as good as he currently is.
 
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Pavel Buchnevich said:
European league guys are underrated here, NA leagues guys are mostly overrated here. Pionk is not 9th, if he's a prospect. Its unlikely players like Miller or Lundkvist will ever be as good as he currently is.
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So you’re saying that Miller or Lundkvist cant become better then a below average top 4 dman?
 
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A couple quibbles. 1. Lias didn't make the Rangers out of training camp last year. 2. I'm pretty sure that Shesterkin is under contract to his Russian team through next year--not 19-20.

LWS didn't make any major gaffes of the 11 they picked. To me there are 12 really excellent prospects--the 11 they picked + Georgiev. They might not have them in the order I have but at least they got the right ones. The Hockey News would never do that.
 
It matches our HF list really closely. I think the top ten is all the same guys, if ordered slightly different. And even Rykov, we had him 12th. Had LWS chosen Georgiev rather than Rykov for the sleeper it would basically be an identical list.

I haven't fully read everything yet, but it all seems pretty reasonable to me. At least in terms of who is there.
 
Pavel Buchnevich said:
European league guys are underrated here, NA leagues guys are mostly overrated here. Pionk is not 9th, if he's a prospect. Its unlikely players like Miller or Lundkvist will ever be as good as he currently is.
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Talk about a blazing hot take. A hot take that could go 2 way. 1 you think Pionk could be a top pair right D because Miller and Lundkvist project to be at least top 4. Or you think so lowly of those 2 that they won't even become what Pionk will likely be, a second pair Dman.
 
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UAGoalieGuy said:
Talk about a blazing hot take. A hot take that could go 2 way. 1 you think Pionk could be a top pair right D because Miller and Lundkvist project to be at least top 4. Or you think so lowly of those 2 that they won't even become what Pionk will likely be, a second pair Dman.
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If its so blazing hot, where did you have Miller and Lundkvist ranked pre-draft?

Fans always overestimate prospects. There are people here who claim that Lias Andersson could be a #1 center. Most neutral observers have him as a #2 or #3 center. I don't think I've once seen any neutral observer say he has a first line ceiling. Rangers fans rationalized the pick by saying he had Selke potential and all that. It was scoffed at here when a neutral observer who observes prospects for a living said that Howden would only be a good third line forward.

Pionk is at least an average top 4 defensemen, unless his normal form is nothing like what he showed in 28 games. Not every first round defensemen has a realistic first pairing ceiling. Not every defensemen who is picked in the first round ends up as a top 4 defensemen. Chances are most actually won't. If you think I'm wrong, go back and check. Look from lets say the 2008-2012 drafts. Look at what percentage are top 4 NHL D.

And I do think lower of the two defensemen than the Rangers, but that doesn't even matter. Statistically speaking, most first round picks are not top 4 defensemen, and I'm sure the number is even lower in the lower 1/3 of the first round.

Edit: I went back and checked this myself. 54 defensemen picked in those years. I counted 27 top 4 D. So about 50%. And I think I was very generous in my top 4 designations. Among those picked in the lower third of the first round, with the most generous designations, 5 of 14 are top 4 D. So I think what I said is correct. I think most just don't realize. But I also find it stupid to put Pionk on a prospect list. He doesn't belong on a list with junior hockey players when he was playing 20+ minutes in the NHL last season.
 
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Pavel Buchnevich said:
If its so blazing hot, where did you have Miller and Lundkvist ranked pre-draft?

Fans always overestimate prospects. There are people here who claim that Lias Andersson could be a #1 center. Most neutral observers have him as a #2 or #3 center. I don't think I've once seen any neutral observer say he has a first line ceiling. Rangers fans rationalized the pick by saying he had Selke potential and all that. It was scoffed at here when a neutral observer who observes prospects for a living said that Howden would only be a good third line forward.

Pionk is at least an average top 4 defensemen, unless his normal form is nothing like what he showed in 28 games. Not every first round defensemen has a realistic first pairing ceiling. Not every defensemen who is picked in the first round ends up as a top 4 defensemen. Chances are most actually won't. If you think I'm wrong, go back and check. Look from lets say the 2008-2012 drafts. Look at what percentage are top 4 NHL D.

And I do think lower of the two defensemen than the Rangers, but that doesn't even matter. Statistically speaking, most first round picks are not top 4 defensemen, and I'm sure the number is even lower in the lower 1/3 of the first round.

Edit: I went back and checked this myself. 54 defensemen picked in those years. I counted 27 top 4 D. So about 50%. And I think I was very generous in my top 4 designations.
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Miller I had right about where he was taken. Lundkvist I had in the early 2nd.

Miller has top pair potential, albeit it not being very likely to reach that potential. He has the tools to do it, just has to put it all together.

Lundkvist has top 4 potential.

Before the games played last season by Pionk I think the concenus was if he hit his potential hed be a 2nd pairing dman. I think since he played well on a crap team people may be thinking he could do more, but was a small sample size.

Not sure where the Andersson comments came from. I dont see a true #1 center in him. Chytil yes, but I think hes in a similar spot as Miller in the sence that he has the skills, but it's a matter of it all coming together. Also not a likely outcome imo.
 
UAGoalieGuy said:
Miller I had right about where he was taken. Lundkvist I had in the early 2nd.

Miller has top pair potential, albeit it not being very likely to reach that potential. He has the tools to do it, just has to put it all together.

Lundkvist has top 4 potential.

Before the games played last season by Pionk I think the concenus was if he hit his potential hed be a 2nd pairing dman. I think since he played well on a crap team people may be thinking he could do more, but was a small sample size.

Not sure where the Andersson comments came from. I dont see a true #1 center in him. Chytil yes, but I think hes in a similar spot as Miller in the sence that he has the skills, but it's a matter of it all coming together. Also not a likely outcome imo.
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Yea but this is Pb you’re talking to if you disagree with his opinon he puts you into a generalization
 
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Don't blame me because you can't accept facts that are posted above.

But go ahead, pass that off as an opinion to not be exposed for being overly emotional about something you didn't like, even though it was true.
 
Pavel Buchnevich said:
If its so blazing hot, where did you have Miller and Lundkvist ranked pre-draft?

Fans always overestimate prospects. There are people here who claim that Lias Andersson could be a #1 center. Most neutral observers have him as a #2 or #3 center. I don't think I've once seen any neutral observer say he has a first line ceiling. Rangers fans rationalized the pick by saying he had Selke potential and all that. It was scoffed at here when a neutral observer who observes prospects for a living said that Howden would only be a good third line forward.

Pionk is at least an average top 4 defensemen, unless his normal form is nothing like what he showed in 28 games. Not every first round defensemen has a realistic first pairing ceiling. Not every defensemen who is picked in the first round ends up as a top 4 defensemen. Chances are most actually won't. If you think I'm wrong, go back and check. Look from lets say the 2008-2012 drafts. Look at what percentage are top 4 NHL D.

And I do think lower of the two defensemen than the Rangers, but that doesn't even matter. Statistically speaking, most first round picks are not top 4 defensemen, and I'm sure the number is even lower in the lower 1/3 of the first round.

Edit: I went back and checked this myself. 54 defensemen picked in those years. I counted 27 top 4 D. So about 50%. And I think I was very generous in my top 4 designations. Among those picked in the lower third of the first round, with the most generous designations, 5 of 14 are top 4 D. So I think what I said is correct. I think most just don't realize. But I also find it stupid to put Pionk on a prospect list. He doesn't belong on a list with junior hockey players when he was playing 20+ minutes in the NHL last season.
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Eh if you take off Pionk for 28 games, you should take off guys like Shesterkin, too. They're about the same age and Shesty has like 60+ starts for maybe the best team in the world not in the NHL, in the second best league in the world. But, everyone has their own criteria.

As for the top four D thing, I'll take you at your word that those numbers are correct. All that means is that an average defenseman drafted somewhere in the first round has a 50% chance of being a top-four defenseman. Are Miller and Lundkvist average first round defensemen? Better? Worse? I know you're an expert on every prospect born in the past ten years, but I don't know. I mean that number speaks nothing to an evaluation of the individual players, so I don't think it's particularly relevant in discussing where a guy should be ranked relative to another guy, or even if one guy is more likely to be better. Its just a number without any context. I wouldn't wager on either being better than Pionk, but I do believe either or both could be (particularly Miller). I just don't think that the argument is, as you often make it, so cut and dry.

And as far as overrating prospects, come on, dude. You're the guy who pegged Graves as better than Skjei and was always pumping Zborovskiy's tires, among other hilarious evaluations. You should be one of the last people to lecture others about overrating our guys! Instead it's "Rangers fans this" and "Rangers fans that" where you generalize based on a couple homers. How do you think it would look if someone looked at all the guys you had man-crushes on over your time here and tried to portray that as reflective of all of us? C'mon, man.
 
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tradenashnow said:
You're clueless and have no idea what you're talking about.
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Yes, I’m definitely clueless-coming from you it’s pretty funny. If everyone takes their homer goggles off they can see Lias is a poor skater. Decent speed yes and is strong on his skates but his overall skating is choppy.
WeNeverGetaGoodCoach said:
Prove it, Rangers would never take him 7th overall if he was a poor skater.
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What is there to prove? Like I said above, watch his skating (and take off homer goggles) and honestly tell me he’s an average skater. I’ll help you-he’s not. I’ve been watching him for a while. Lots of poor skaters get taken top 10. Here’s a few recent ones off the top of my head (who were considered poor skaters at the time of the draft, some have fixed it)

Draisaitl
Sam and Griffen Reinhart
Dylan and Ryan Strome
Bo Horvat
Even f***ing McIlrath who we selected 10th overall
 
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Lays said:
Yes, I’m definitely clueless-coming from you it’s pretty funny. If everyone takes their homer goggles off they can see Lias is a poor skater. Decent speed yes and is strong on his skates but his overall skating is choppy.

What is there to prove? Like I said above, watch his skating (and take off homer goggles) and honestly tell me he’s an average skater. I’ll help you-he’s not. I’ve been watching him for a while. Lots of poor skaters get taken top 10. Here’s a few recent ones off the top of my head (who were considered poor skaters at the time of the draft, some have fixed it)

Draisaitl
Sam and Griffen Reinhart
Dylan and Ryan Strome
Bo Horvat
Even ****ing McIlrath who we selected 10th overall
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provide a link to a video that supports your claims.
 
Please find me one publication who calls Lias a poor skater.

Every draft scouting publication from a year ago who mentions skating calls it a strength.
 
Lays said:
Go find it yourself. You’re the same guy that asked if Skjei was really better than Brandon ****ing Manning so I’m assuming you’re pretty clueless. I’m done here
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yes, I admit I am clueless about Brandon Manning, but you make ridiculous claims without anything to back it up.
 
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