I'm not grouping them all together. It's not just the team that has underperformed. A lot of the expected top performers have been disappointing so far. I've seen the U17 team and its players plenty of times as well, and while the skill of the players is evident, they haven't delivered results on a consistent basis. The only top player on the U17 team I think one could say is performing up to expectations would be Farabee, but he's not performing up to the level as of now where he's going to be in contention for this team.
For context in their NTDP U17 seasons:
- Keller: 1.34 PPG (played up with U18s to finish season and at IIHF U18)
- Bracco: 1.31 PPG
- White: 1.34 PPG
- Matthews: 1.14 PPG (played up with U18s to finish season and at IIHF U18)
- Hanifin: 0.78 PPG (played up with U18s to finish season, and at IIHF U18)
- Werenski: 0.57 PPG
- Krys: 0.78 PPG (played up with U18s to finish season, and at IIHF U18)
- Eichel: 0.86 PPG (played up with U18s to finish season and at IIHF U18)
And your choices for the team:
- Farabee: 0.81 PPG
- Wise: 0.62 PPG
- Wilde: 0.38 PPG
Of all those players, only Matthews and Krys were invited to the NJEC heading into their U18 seasons. Matthews, Eichel, Hanifin, Werenski, and Krys all made the WJC as U18 players, and Hanifin and Werenski were both playing NCAA hockey.
Previous NTDP players scoring at a much higher pace during their U17 seasons weren't in contention for this team at this point, so why should we believe any players on the current U17 team are trending that way? It's unrealistic to expect that at this point. I'd like them to prove me wrong as much as anyone as I had really high hopes for the '00 birth year, but they have a ways to go to realize their potential.
If any of the players on the U17 team want to start trending towards this team, they should first try graduating to the U18 team this season, and to play at the IIHF U18s. And then they'll need to start their U18 seasons producing at clips like the others that made the team as underagers, such as Matthews (1.95 PPG) or Eichel (1.64 PPG). Until then, it's total fantasy and false hope that three members of the U17 team will be at the NJEC this summer and on the next WJC team.
I appreciate those numbers, but I am going off mostly what I have watched. I don't need to compare them to previous players, in terms of goals, assists, points in certain years. They could have worse teammates, they could be playing better competition, they could've had slow starts that messed up statistical comparisons, there are many things that could be behind why the u17 team is behind in individual stats, but I don't think its behind in individual talent. I can compare them to where I think other players in contention for the team are and where they are likely to go in the draft.
Also, I would put forward this stat, which I believe makes a good case for why some of them might make it. In the last five drafts, 9 Americans have been drafted in the top 10, only two of those players have not made the WJC team in their draft season, Keller and Galchenyuk. Keller was the last cut his draft year, so whether he made it or not doesn't particularly matter, he was in contention to make it. Galchenyuk was injured. Going back ten drafts, it seems like Zach Bogosian was the only player who didn't make it that was picked in the top ten, discounting the injured Galchenyuk and Keller who was the last cut. I don't know what the case was with Bogosian. I wasn't following back then. Maybe he was the last cut.
Either way, I think its pretty clear from those stats that players who go in the top 10 make the WJC team in their draft year. Considering the 2018 draft, its early, but I find it hard to believe Wilde isn't trending towards being a top 10 pick, probably more likely a top 5 pick. I've been very impressed with how he plays. Whether or not he has less points than previous defenseman for the u17 NTDP team, he has been very good this season, and has all the making of a very high selection. I think he will move up to the older team, and should be at the WJC-18 this year. Farabee and Wise are less likely to make it, I think they are looking like first round picks, maybe even likely top 15 picks, but I don't think either is as sure of top 10 pick as Wilde, although I think both could be top ten picks. Farabee has had a really good season, probably been the best forward for the u17 NTDP team. More of a surprise than any player on that team, but he's been very good. Wise has really picked it up the last few tournaments, I think he's been the team's best player of late. He's looking more and more like the player he was originally billed as, although I wouldn't say the Eichel or Matthews comparisons are fair, but he has shown that type of play at times. I think they will also move up to the older age group in the next few months, and eventually the WJC-18 team for this year.
The WJC-18 team almost always has players a year younger. Last year it didn't, and that was the first year since the tournament started that the USA didn't have any players a year younger. It might've been because the '99 born players are not good, and lack many first round talents. They still did include a number of 2017 draftees that didn't play within the NTDP program, so they took some outside players, despite not taking players a year younger. They've taken less than two year younger players three times, including last year. A lot of years its more than two. I think those three make it this year, play well, and are considered for the WJC-20 team going into next season. I'm sure you can build a case for why they won't, which is what you've done, but I've outlined the case for all of them, and maybe you don't think any of them deserve it now, but I think all three will be in contention to make the team next season with Wilde a certainty to make it when the final camp roster is named. If Wise continues to play well, he has that ability as well to be a certainty to make it. I'm not sure Farabee has that ability in his game that the other two have shown for years, but I do think he's going under the radar and will find himself in contention for the team, whether or not he's a big name.
