My three main factors all point to Vegas winning this series.
1) Rest/Health - Vegas has incredibly only played 15 games (12-3) to get to the Final. That's ridonkulous (just like everything else going on with them). They are healthy and rested. The Caps have played 19 games and who knows how healthy Backstrom is (although he's looked good). Basically I give the edge to Vegas for freshness. Their speed is just going to leave the Caps in the dust.
2) Goaltending - Holtby has been great, but M-A Fleury has been unreal to the tune of .947 save percentage, 1.68 GAA and 4 shutouts. I'm not sure what else can be said about this guy, but he has certainly showed how having a rock back there can energize an entire team.
3) Happy To Be There - The Caps are downright giddy to be in their first Final since 1998 and first of Ovechkin's career. I've heard a lot of "I've been playing my whole career for this," and, in general, lots of stuff about exorcising demons. The Caps are acting like they've won the Cup already. Not in the sense that they're looking past Vegas, but in the sense that *making* the Final was the goal all along! It's hard to get a fix on where Vegas stands on this particular scale since they've been playing with house money since Opening Night. But their core leaders (Fleury, Engelland, Neal) have been here many times before -- they were teammates in Pittsburgh from 2010-2014 -- and I get the sense they won't be overwhelmed by the moment, and I don't get the same sense from Ovechkin and Holtby.
Vegas in 5 (or 7, but not 6, because I want to see them close it out at home).
P.S. Since the captaincy has been a big issue for us, I thought I'd chime in on Vegas's decision to have assorted alternates and no full-time captain this season, and why it's different than our fiasco. IMO, Vegas did it because Marc-Andre Fleury is the de facto captain and everyone knows it, but he's not allowed by league rules to wear the "C." Engelland was awarded the Campbell Trophy, but it will be interesting to see who receives the Cup if they win.
P.P.S. If Washington somehow wins, I still think Fleury will win Conn Smythe, unless the wheels completely and unexpectedly come off in the Final.
P.P.P.S. Can anyone think of a reason that a goalie shouldn't be able to wear a letter? Maybe it's time to change that rule? I can't think of a reason why they should be excluded, other than it being in fairness to them, since they have other things to think about?