OT: 2018 Phillies

[Hiesenberg]

Winkleman says some of the latest mocks have Mize falling to 3.

As a guy that would love more ace potential pitching...I'm all for that.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

Winkleman says some of the latest mocks have Mize falling to 3.

I'm pretty sure the recent fervor started with a JJ Cooper tweet yesterday, or at least that was the first spot in the chain I saw. Phrasing was along the lines of it still a big longshot, but a little less than he previously thought.

 

[Hiesenberg]

I'm pretty sure the recent fervor started with a JJ Cooper tweet yesterday, or at least that was the first spot in the chain I saw. Phrasing was along the lines of it still a big longshot, but a little less than he previously thought.

I think so, but if there is smoke, there is fire.

I mean, for the Phillies when they selected Moniak, it was Puk/Somebody else I forget basically the whole time until the last few days leading up, then it was Moniak.

If they end up with Mize, I'm happy, if they get Bohm, I'm happy. Sounds like both players will be quick movers and could seriously fill a need.

 

[FLYguy3911]

Sounds like more speculation than substance. Keith Law had Mize going 3 but said he’s not even sure the Phillies would take him there. Also said he’s not sure Detroit knows who they are taking yet.

 

[Hiesenberg]

Sounds like if Mize is skipped by the Phils @ 3, it could be because of slot money. Mize could ask for #1 slot money and since the Phils lost their 2nd and 3rd pick, they don't have extra money to play with.

Well they do, but it's small dollars in the 9th & 10th round picks.

 

[FLYguy3911]

Yeah but he can’t overplay his hand. Some team would just take him and dare his to turn down ~6 million and take the high pick next year.

The top college pitcher has slid on draft night the last two years.

 

[Hiesenberg]

Yeah but he can’t overplay his hand. Some team would just take him and dare his to turn down ~6 million and take the high pick next year.

The top college pitcher has slid on draft night the last two years.

Right, I would think the high school players have more power. College are towards the end of the line

 

[montreal]

it's crazy how up in the air it is. Now they are talking about Singer. Sounds like one of Mize, Bohm, Madrigal, or Singer will be the pick or not.

 

[SolidSnakeUS]

I guess the question is, what does this team need to most?

I know it's BPA, but still.

 

[deadhead]

For the kids they have to grow up.

 

[Jtown]

I think so, but if there is smoke, there is fire.

I mean, for the Phillies when they selected Moniak, it was Puk/Somebody else I forget basically the whole time until the last few days leading up, then it was Moniak.

If they end up with Mize, I'm happy, if they get Bohm, I'm happy. Sounds like both players will be quick movers and could seriously fill a need.

I remember Moniak being the guy they were interested in very early. I think mize is the easy selection if he is there. Yes he will command full slot but I have a feeling there are some HS pitchers that have even higher asking prices so If that is the case Mize looks like a bargain.

 

[Hiesenberg]

I guess the question is, what does this team need to most?

I know it's BPA, but still.

Never have too many arms.

Plus it shows that hitting doesn't always translate, the last 3 first rounders: Randolph/Moniak/Haseley have all struggled A LOT.

 

[Jtown]

Never have too many arms.

Plus it shows that hitting doesn't always translate, the last 3 first rounders: Randolph/Moniak/Haseley have all struggled A LOT.

college bats high in the draft are the most easy to project and easy to move up into the mlb. After this Scouting Staff's inability to show they are any better than the previous staff ( and at this point they are looking much more inferior) I fully expect them to reach for a college bat. I hate that mentality, and i really hope they don't draft a guy because he can be a 4th outfielder next year just to show they drafted mlb talent. Woelver at least had the balls to always draft guys with high ceilings.

 

[Jtown]

Joey Bart is a real candidate to go 1. If that happens I believe Mize will be there at 3. That is pretty crazy.

 

[FLYguy3911]

I think people are dumping on Haseley for no good reason. He's not a star, but he's a solid prospect who had a couple bad weeks as a first year pro. He's been raking since. Has a chance to stay up the middle. Probably a top 100 prospect. He'll be in AA soon. Not sure what else you could have wanted at 8th overall.

I get the panic with Moniak. There is no power at the moment (crushed a HR yesterday though) and the approach is bad so his slash line looks like garbage, but he's playing at the same level as Haseley, who is 2 years older and who also had struggles at that level, to put things into perspective a little bit. He's been hitting lately though. The worst thing that happened for him was getting the 1-1 label especially going to a team in a market like Philadelphia. People lost all frame of reference. Some people just can't grasp that the top of the draft talent isn't the same year-to-year. Everyone knew he wasn't a true 1-1 talent (take a peak at what went behind him). The thing that makes it worse is the guy they were able to get because they took Moniak, Kevin Gowdy, has missed two seasons because of TJ surgery. He was supposed to be a polished high school pitcher who could move fairly quickly. The money also trickled down to Cole Stobbe who has missed most of this year. They've been a bit unlucky too, but that can happen when you take HS picks early.

 

[Jtown]

I think people are dumping on Haseley for no good reason. He's not a star, but he's a solid prospect who had a couple bad weeks as a first year pro. He's been raking since. Has a chance to stay up the middle. Probably a top 100 prospect. He'll be in AA soon. Not sure what else you could have wanted at 8th overall.

I get the panic with Moniak. There is no power at the moment (crushed a HR yesterday though) and the approach is bad so his slash line looks like garbage, but he's playing at the same level as Haseley, who is 2 years older and who also had struggles at that level, to put things into perspective a little bit. He's been hitting lately though. The worst thing that happened for him was getting the 1-1 label especially going to a team in a market like Philadelphia. People lost all frame of reference. Some people just can't grasp that the top of the draft talent isn't the same year-to-year. Everyone knew he wasn't a true 1-1 talent (take a peak at what went behind him). The thing that makes it worse is the guy they were able to get because the took Moniak, Kevin Gowdy, has missed two seasons because of TJ surgery. He was supposed to be a polished high school pitcher who could move fairly quickly. The money also trickled down to Cole Stobbe who has missed most of this year. They've been a bit unlucky too, but that can happen when you take HS picks early.

I don't blame Moniak. That was just a real bad draft overall and its just unfortunate we had the first overall pick there. Haesley is not going to be a CF at the MLB level, atleast a CF that can impact games defensively. And if he is not CF then I don't know how he truly contributes to this team long term because he is not expected to be a power hitter. And for a guy we drafted to play one position at the MLB level we were given the luxury of going overslot for him. Everything about that Pick i did not like. Sucks that so much talent went in the top 6. If one of those guys fell to us id be ecstatic but to me it seems like they panicked. I'd have rather not signed him than pay him what we did. If we go with another similar guy such as Madrigal I'm going to be pissed.

 

[montreal]

Never have too many arms.

Plus it shows that hitting doesn't always translate, the last 3 first rounders: Randolph/Moniak/Haseley have all struggled A LOT.

I have wanted Mize if he falls as long as it's not due to medicals but on the other hand it's getting harder and harder to watch the phils strike out, ground into double plays, leave men on base with less then 2 outs, getting shutout. Of course if they end up winning the Machado sweepstakes that's going to go a long way.

I liked what I saw from Haseley last year but haven't seen any Clearwater games this year yet. He's certainly heating up, I know some aren't happy because he isn't walking more though. MM is heating up as well, not sure why they didn't have him repeat Lakewood though.

 

[Jtown]

I have wanted Mize if he falls as long as it's not due to medicals but on the other hand it's getting harder and harder to watch the phils strike out, ground into double plays, leave men on base with less then 2 outs, getting shutout. Of course if they end up winning the Machado sweepstakes that's going to go a long way.

I liked what I saw from Haseley last year but haven't seen any Clearwater games this year yet. He's certainly heating up, I know some aren't happy because he isn't walking more though. MM is heating up as well, not sure why they didn't have him repeat Lakewood though.

MM is heating up . HE raised his BA over 30 points in the past 2 weeks and his OPS is still below 650.

Mickey Moniak and the 70 Hit Tool

This article sums up Moniak pretty well and , and while we all hope for the best sadly his fate is already sealed.

 

[FLYguy3911]

I liked what I saw from Haseley last year but haven't seen any Clearwater games this year yet. He's certainly heating up, I know some aren't happy because he isn't walking more though

Were those people posting on Phuture Philles by any chance?

Last 4 weeks:

.330/.408/.484

10 BB's
12 K's

Trust the track record. Not early season small samples.

Haesley is not going to be a CF at the MLB level, atleast a CF that can impact games defensively. And if he is not CF then I don't know how he truly contributes to this team long term because he is not expected to be a power hitter.

Impact defensively? Probably not, but how many are? He's a pretty underrated athlete. I would bet on him playing games in CF in the Big Leagues. With Hoskins in LF for the next two years at least, he's going to have to even if he's just the 4th OFer.

Jose Ramirez, Francisco Lindor, Jose Altuve, Mookie Betts, Ozzie Albies, etc. weren't supposed to hit for power either. The ML balls are incredible. If you are a good hitter, you are going to hit HR's in today's environment. CBP is a great place to hit too, especially for someone who hits a lot of balls to LF like Haseley.

Haseley doesn't have one standout tool which is what most people knock him for, but he does a lot of things well and those types find ways to make an impact in the Big Leagues. Again I don't think he's a star, but well worth where he was picked and doing about as well as you could expect.

And for a guy we drafted to play one position at the MLB level we were given the luxury of going overslot for him. Everything about that Pick i did not like. Sucks that so much talent went in the top 6. If one of those guys fell to us id be ecstatic but to me it seems like they panicked. I'd have rather not signed him than pay him what we did. If we go with another similar guy such as Madrigal I'm going to be pissed.

He's not a one position guy.

Top 6? Austin Beck is not a better prospect than Haseley. More potential sure, but better? No. The top 5 players went in the top 5 picks. That's usually how drafts work. Picking 8th, I doubt the Phillies expected any of those guys to be on the board. They didn't panic. Haseley was linked to the Phillies for at least a week before the draft and they took him when he was available.

I would have rather paid Haseley overslot money to ensure he gets to my pick, than offer him slot and watch him go a pick before while his teammate, Pavin Smith, a 1B with questionable power ends up being the Phillies pick. They didn't offer him overslot money just because they felt like it. These deals are all worked out prior to the selection.

Madigral rakes so I wouldn't be pissed if he is the pick. He's the safest player in the draft. The only guy I'll be disappointed with at 3 is Singer.

 

[Jtown]

Were those people posting on Phuture Philles by any chance?

Last 4 weeks:

.330/.408/.484

10 BB's
12 K's

Trust the track record. Not early season small samples.


Impact defensively? Probably not, but how many are? He's a pretty underrated athlete. I would bet on him playing games in CF in the Big Leagues. With Hoskins in LF for the next two years at least, he's going to have to even if he's just the 4th OFer.

Jose Ramirez, Francisco Lindor, Jose Altuve, Mookie Betts, Ozzie Albies, etc. weren't supposed to hit for power either. The ML balls are incredible. If you are a good hitter, you are going to hit HR's in today's environment. CBP is a great place to hit too, especially for someone who hits a lot of balls to LF like Haseley.

Haseley doesn't have one standout tool which is what most people knock him for, but he does a lot of things well and those types find ways to make an impact in the Big Leagues. Again I don't think he's a star, but well worth where he was picked and doing about as well as you could expect.


He's not a one position guy.

Top 6? Austin Beck is not a better prospect than Haseley. More potential sure, but better? No. The top 5 players went in the top 5 picks. That's usually how drafts work. Picking 8th, I doubt the Phillies expected any of those guys to be on the board. They didn't panic. Haseley was linked to the Phillies for at least a week before the draft and they took him when he was available.

I would have rather paid Haseley overslot money to ensure he gets to my pick, than offer him slot and watch him go a pick before while his teammate, Pavin Smith, a 1B with questionable power ends up being the Phillies pick. They didn't offer him overslot money just because they felt like it. These deals are all worked out prior to the selection.

Madigral rakes so I wouldn't be pissed if he is the pick. He's the safest player in the draft. The only guy I'll be disappointed with at 3 is Singer.

Lindor slugged 480 in 99 games for the Indians at age 21, Betts slugged over 500 every year in the minors after age 19. Albies slugged 450 at age 20 for the Braves in 250 ab's. Haesley is 22 currently slugging 410.

Haseley overslot was terrible and would not have gone one pick ahead of us. No college player got overslot after him and only a few even got slot.

And Madrigal is a 1 position player . He provides no pop and no speed . If the phillies draft him 3rd its going to look so bad down the road.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

Haseley overslot was terrible and would not have gone one pick ahead of us.

When the final mocks were in last year, it was a common suggestion by major names that if the top 5 were gone, Arizona preferred one of the UVA bats at 7.

 

[Jtown]

When the final mocks were in last year, it was a common suggestion by major names that if the top 5 were gone, Arizona preferred one of the UVA bats at 7.

i remember reading that as well.

 

[FLYguy3911]

Lindor slugged 480 in 99 games for the Indians at age 21, Betts slugged over 500 every year in the minors after age 19. Albies slugged 450 at age 20 for the Braves in 250 ab's. Haesley is 22 currently slugging 410.

You are proving my point by giving me their Major League slugging percentage so thank you. Those guys weren’t supposed to hit for power but they are such good hitters they tapped into it once they got to the majors and got to take hacks at the juiced ball.

Almost every hitter in the Majors has a higher ISO than they did in the minors so citing Haseley’s slugging% in a pitcher friendly league isn’t really proving a point. He’s most likely going to have a higher slugging% in Reading than he will in Clearwater. Does that mean he finally found power or are league and park factors that overwhelming?

This also brings up another point. With the exception of Reading, the Phillies’ minor league affiliates play in some pretty poor hitting environments that suppress offensive numbers and performances look poorly to the public eye. Williamsport and Lakewood are terrible places to hit. Clearwater is OK for the FSL but overall that is a tough league for hitters. Reading is great if you are a fly ball hitter but plays small otherwise. LHV is average but the International League is far from the PCL. Look no further than Hoskins. He didn’t start getting pub until he landed in Reading.

Haseley overslot was terrible and would not have gone one pick ahead of us. No college player got overslot after him and only a few even got slot.

Unless you were on the phone with his “adviser” you have no way of knowing where he would have went. Signing Bonuses are a better indicator of true talent in baseball than draft slot. The fact that no one got overslot or slot after the fact suggests there was a bigger gap in talent, not a smaller one, from Haseley to the next college player.

And Madrigal is a 1 position player . He provides no pop and no speed . If the phillies draft him 3rd its going to look so bad down the road.

He could be a one position guy but he’s a 70 runner so he’s not a “no speed” guy and I’m sure he’d do just fine if you had to put him in the OF. He might be able to play SS. I doubt the Phillies would take him if they thought he was a 2B only. He’s a better defender than Kingery imo and Kingery graded out pretty damn well when he was a prospect.

 

[Jtown]

You are proving my point by giving me their Major League slugging percentage so thank you. Those guys weren’t supposed to hit for power but they are such good hitters they tapped into it once they got to the majors and got to take hacks at the juiced ball.

Almost every hitter in the Majors has a higher ISO than they did in the minors so citing Haseley’s slugging% in a pitcher friendly league isn’t really proving a point. He’s most likely going to have a higher slugging% in Reading than he will in Clearwater. Does that mean he finally found power or are league and park factors that overwhelming?

This also brings up another point. With the exception of Reading, the Phillies’ minor league affiliates play in some pretty poor hitting environments that suppress offensive numbers and performances look poorly to the public eye. Williamsport and Lakewood are terrible places to hit. Clearwater is OK for the FSL but overall that is a tough league for hitters. Reading is great if you are a fly ball hitter but plays small otherwise. LHV is average but the International League is far from the PCL. Look no further than Hoskins. He didn’t start getting pub until he landed in Reading.

Unless you were on the phone with his “adviser” you have no way of knowing where he would have went. Signing Bonuses are a better indicator of true talent in baseball than draft slot. The fact that no one got overslot or slot after the fact suggests there was a bigger gap in talent, not a smaller one.


He could be a one position guy but he’s a 70 runner so he’s not a “no speed” guy and I’m sure he’d do just fine if you had to put him in the OF. He might be able to play SS.

1. yes the phils do play in poor hitting environments. But look at the ages of the prospects I listed. Now look at Haseley .

2. Bonuses has nothing to do with talent alone. It has to deal with talent plus options.
3. mlb pipeline has madrigal at a 60 grade for speed.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

i remember reading that as well.

Then saying Haseley could not have gone 7 makes no sense. I'm utterly lost.