2018 NHL Draft: Quantity vs. Quality?

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Trade up (or down), or keep picks?


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The reality is, though, that not only have McKenzie and Brooks made reference to it, but, Gorton himself has said as much, that the Ranger approach is not going to be quantity over quality. Gorton added a bunch of assets for the purpose of targeting particular players in this draft. Rangers don’t win the lottery, and Brooks immediately writes that the Rangers will attempt to move up. That flies in the face what people here are hoping the Rangers will do. I’ve simply said I’m fine with that approach, and given Rangers past history, it’s probably the prudent approach. The Rangers tried the quantity approach in 2004. In 2005, they went up and got Marc Staal. Anybody remember what Atlanta did in return with the extra pick to move down?
Don't get me wrong, I'm not against all moves up. If there is a guy who they like who falls into a spot they know they can't get him in, ok. If they want to move a guy like Spooner or Names for another pick, ok. More than likely I think Gortons statement is a sign to the league that he's open for business, and pieces are in play. Not hopefully saying three first are getting packaged for one shot.
 
For this draft, I'll take quantity. So many potential contributors in the first three rounds.

Unless we're talking Zadina, not too interested in trading up. I'd rather have Dobson+Kaut/Bokk over just one of Wahlstrom/Boqvist.
 
For this draft, I'll take quantity. So many potential contributors in the first three rounds.

Unless we're talking Zadina, not too interested in trading up. I'd rather have Dobson+Kaut/Bokk over just one of Wahlstrom/Boqvist.
I agree with this, especially considering this team has many holes to fill.
 
Elite talent over depth every day of the week. Pittsburgh and Chicago had laughable blue-line depth for many of their Stanley Cups.

Think we need to make a distinction between forward depth and blueline depth though. Vegas is all forward depth. Pittsburgh didn't win anything with Crosby and Malkin for a long while until they got the best 3rd line in hockey.
 
It's not about a better choice than Staal.

It's that you keep referencing trading up for Staal as if it's some paramount moment in Rangers history, ignoring the statistics that say trading up is foolish.
Except for when it’s not foolish. Nor do I look at it as a paramount moment in Ranger history. Given the option of trading up to 12 to get Staal, or staying put at 16 to take Alex Bourret (the supposed Rangers choice at the time), I’ll take the option of trading up for Staal. Yes, if they keep the 2nd, perhaps they get a player as good as Staal, or they miss there and are instead 0-for-2, instead of getting a player that was part of their success from 2010-2014.
 
I am so hesitant to talk about "policy" in the abstract; I don't think you can view a draft/potential deals without context.

I mean, yes, generally speaking, I would like as many picks as possible, due to the law of averages, and in particular the quality of this draft.

But...

If Carolina makes the #2OA/Svechnikov available? If Zadina slips? If Wahlstrom is there at 7 and you have info that Chicago is likely to take him at 8? Yeah, make a move – preferably using roster players, but at the end of the day, do what you gotta do.
 
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I am so hesitant to talk about "policy" in the abstract; I don't think you can view a draft/potential deals without context.

I mean, yes, generally speaking, I would like as many picks as possible, due to the law of averages, and in particular the quality of this draft.

But...

If Carolina makes the #2OA/Svechnikov available? If Zadina slips? If Wahlstrom is there at 7 and you have info that Chicago is likely to take him at 8? Yeah, make a move – preferably using roster players, but at the end of the day, do what you gotta do.

Keeping all your picks statistically should result in better success in terms of actual percentage of players making it. But, would the Sharks have been better off not trading up for Couture or the Devils trading up for Parise?
 
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Except for when it’s not foolish. Nor do I look at it as a paramount moment in Ranger history. Given the option of trading up to 12 to get Staal, or staying put at 16 to take Alex Bourret (the supposed Rangers choice at the time), I’ll take the option of trading up for Staal. Yes, if they keep the 2nd, perhaps they get a player as good as Staal, or they miss there and are instead 0-for-2, instead of getting a player that was part of their success from 2010-2014.
"Except for when small samples of anecdotal evidence fit my paradigm."
 
Keeping all your picks statistically should result in better success in terms of actual percentage of players making it. But, would the Sharks have been better off not trading up for Couture or the Devils trading up for Parise?
Again, it depends on context. Last year, I would've given the 7, the 21 (which I would've subsequently regretted), and potentially a third pick to get to 3, 4, or 5 to take Pettersson. But unlike last year, this draft appears loaded, into the second round. I just gave a number of instances in which I'd absolutely be cool with moving up, but I'm not at all comfortable saying in a vacuum, "yeah, look to trade up".
 
Obviously it all comes down to what the Rangers board looks like. If they have like Ty Smith at #4 or #5, hold tight at 9 and pick him. People here might be mad but who cares. If they love Wahlstrom or Hughes, chase the guy within reason. Trading up a couple spots is affordable, getting Montreal to give up Zadina won't be affordable.

If they like someone who's a huge reach at 9 but probably gone by the Boston-Tampa picks, try to find a trade-up partner in the middle of the draft. If guys like Namestnikov and Spooner were brought here to be currency, that's probably the way to use them.
 
This thread is just "Hindsight is 20/20" repeated over and over again, every post.

If the NYR screw up this draft by moving up people will scream "I TOLD YOU SO"

and if the NYR screw it up by using all 3 first rounders etc. people will scream "I TOLD YOU SO"

The only way people don't scream is if NYR don't screw up.
 
Feel like the Sens are a much better candidate for a "big" trade-up than the Habs - they don't gain anything from being awful next year, they can use extra roster players, they might still want to resign Karlsson and put a team around him - and no one really talks about it because no one wants Brady Tkachuk
 
Quantity in this one. I say this because outside of Dahlin and Svech/Boqvist I feel like they could all be promising or at least intriguing players with good potential in roles on our team and we aren't high enough to get a clear BPA or trade for one at this point. We have at least 3 1st round picks as it stands right now with possibility for more or less really. In this one, you take quantity. In 2015, BPA/quality OR quantity would be good. But in weaker ones, quality only IMO
 
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9th OA - BPA
Next First Round Pick - BPA
Next First Round Pick - Trade for early mid-2nd rounder and 3rd
Earliest 2nd Round pick - Trade to Florida for Mascherin
Remaining picks: BPA or trade down

Thank you,
silverfish

PS - Please see User Title under Avatar and Username before yelling at me.
 
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Easily quantity. There are situations where trading up makes sense, but on the whole, just add more picks.

Even at #9, if it gets to us and there are three or four guys that are all close to BPA, I would love to see us trade down a few picks and add a mid-second rounder.

We'd still probably end up with one of the guys that we're all fawning over, but with another top 60 prospect in a deep draft. Yes please.
 
Its also hard to say one way or the other until we see how the draft plays out.

If a bunch of teams start going off the board and a bunch of guys the Rangers like end up falling, trading back for more picks makes sense.

I still think they need 2 picks in the top 15-18. Whether they get that additional pick by trading up from one of their later 1sts or moving a body for it I don't really care, but they really need 2 cracks at the best this draft has to offer IMO.
 
Its also hard to say one way or the other until we see how the draft plays out.

If a bunch of teams start going off the board and a bunch of guys the Rangers like end up falling, trading back for more picks makes sense.

I still think they need 2 picks in the top 15-18. Whether they get that additional pick by trading up from one of their later 1sts or moving a body for it I don't really care, but they really need 2 cracks at the best this draft has to offer IMO.

Isn't there supposed to be a bit of a talent drop after the top 12-15 ish area in this draft? I feel like I read an article by someone who had asked several scouts that question.

I.E. if we're trading up, shouldn't aim a few spots higher if that's the case?
 
Isn't there supposed to be a bit of a talent drop after the top 12-15 ish area in this draft? I feel like I read an article by someone who had asked several scouts that question.

I.E. if we're trading up, shouldn't aim a few spots higher if that's the case?

It varies from opinion to opinion but yeah, I'd like to aim as high as possible.

Someone will be there in the middle of the first round who has no business still being around. It happens every year.
 
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With the amount of trading assets they have: Zucc, Namestnikov, Spooner, Vesey, even Hayes. Plus on the off chance they get overwhelmed for Kreider/Zibanejad/Buch, I see no reason why they wouldn't be able to do both.
 
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Just ran a sim where I went the other direction, trading down, then trading back up later. Thoughts?
  • Rangers Draft Simulation using: Draftwired (400)
    http://www.draftwired.com:8888/apps/dwNHL
    Trades:
    (27, 33, 98) from DET for (9)
    (20) from LAK for (27, 90, 163)
    (54) from ANA for (70, 101)
    (87) from CHI for (98, 132)
    Picks:
    Rd 1 Pk 20 - Barrett Hayton (C) Sault Ste Marie
    Rd 1 Pk 28 - Vitali Kravtsov (RW) Chelyabinsk
    Rd 1 Pk 29 - Dominik Bokk (RW) Vaxjo J20
    Rd 2 Pk 33 - Jack McBain (C) Jr. Canadiens
    Rd 2 Pk 39 - Jacob Bernard-Docker (RD) Okotoks
    Rd 2 Pk 48 - Sean Durzi (RD) Owen Sound
    Rd 2 Pk 54 - Niklas Nordgren (RW) HIFK
    Rd 3 Pk 87 - Oskar Back (C/LW) Farjestad J20
 
Firmly in the do not trade up from 9 camp. Not opposed to moving up the early TB/BOS pick to the teens. But not clamoring for it either.

I expect that the NYR actually WILL disregard my wishes (!!!) and make a serious move to pick in the top-5. Zadina with Chytil is too tempting. I also could 100% see Tkachuk as the target, melting the HF servers into a puddle of goo.
 

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