Prospect Info: 2018 NHL Draft / Pick #9 - Vitali Kravtsov (RW) - Part II

[Rongomania]

Got Panarin?

GOAT user name. In my head, I only hear his name in Chappelles Rick James voice.

 

[bobbop]

A very good point.

The Rangers like Andersson, but I don't think there's ever been the narrative that he was at the top of their list either.

They supposedly liked Patrick, Pettersson and Glass a lot.

Of course I've always seen that misconstrued into statements about them "settling" for Andersson, but I don't think that's the case either.

The Rangers knew exactly what a they were getting into with the seventh pick. Arizona traded the 7th pick partly because they didn’t like the options at #7. The Rangers clearly did.

 

[gravey9]

I can't remember the last time we had a prospect that had Kravtsov's combo of vision, shiftiness and lightning quick hands. Just a very exciting player. In a tournament with that much space out there, he was dominant. Though even at this level, along the walls, D were able to knock him off the puck. I hope he fills out and gets stronger as his thin frame is one of the biggest developmental hurdles at this point. (which is a great place to be). I'm glad they're keeping him in the KHL and on bigger ice for another year. I'm hopeful the team learned its lesson with Buch and that Kravtsov has someone working with him on strengthening his core.

 

[Edge]

True, and this is where the BS "Gorton should have traded up" narrative comes from. Sure, we liked Pettersson, but apparently they wanted more than we were willing to give up to move up. I always felt that the price would have been 7+21 for 5, and I honestly am happier with Andersson+Chytil than just Pettersson.

I think we've made a lot of progress with more people understanding that trading up, like most things, depends on the price.

It's not just as simple as trading a first and a second to move up at the top of the draft. Sometimes the cost is significantly higher.

Re: Pettersson, I love the talent --- but this is the second year in a row where he gave me a little pause about his ability to tap into all his talent in certain situations. Sometimes I find myself waiting for him to really take over the way I know he's capable of.

 

[Edge]

The Rangers knew exactly what a they were getting into with the seventh pick. Arizona traded the 7th pick partly because they didn’t like the options at #7. The Rangers clearly did.

Whether one agrees with the Rangers or not, there's no getting around the concept that the Rangers know who they like, know what they're looking for, and don't really give a damn what anyone else thinks.

When all is said and done, successes and failures will be squarely on this management team. This is their vision, without any interference, and without any unmet demands for control or resources.

 

[Tawnos]

Whether one agrees with the Rangers or not, there's no getting around the concept that the Rangers know who they like, know what they're looking for, and don't really give a damn what anyone else thinks.

When all is said and done, successes and failures will be squarely on this management team. This is their vision, without any interference, and without any unmet demands for control or resources.

Aside from the last sentence, this also doesn't distinguish them from any other organization's front office

 

[Mac n Gs]

It's almost impossible to compare Zadina to Kravtsov though because of the QoO they faced all season long. The one aspect where they could be judged was international games. Kravtsov in his games for the senior Russian team was capable to play his style of hockey. He was not overpowered for instance. When Zadina played for the Czech Republic in the Carlson Games, he was almost invisible. And that wasn't against the strongest opposition either because he got a lot of favorable matchups with his line.

In the end, it depends on what teams value more. Zadina was ranked 3rd overall almost the entire season, yet he dropped to 5th. The 2 guys who leapfrogged him were Brady Tkachuk, who played college hockey, which is more physical and a better indication if someone is ready, and Quinn Hughes who was one of the revelations at the World Championships against the best players in the world (A lot of KHL and NHL players in that tournament). I personally value QoO a lot. If a kid like Kravtsov can put up even a few points at age 17, that's huge. I've posted comparisons earlier but here they are again:




It all depends on what people value more. Sure, a guy can be great after putting up 90 points in the OHL but at the same time there are a lot of players who did a similar thing and then barely produced in the NHL. I think some GMs are a bit cautious with those type of players, paired with the further influx of Europeans compared to 10 years ago. When a kid like Andersson dominates the SuperElit (under 20's) at age 17, and he then gets a shot in the SHL against professionals when he is barely old enough to drive a car, that says a lot about the physical and also mental maturity of that player. The same argument can be used for Kravtsov.

Eh, you can still gauge relative production and figure out how it translates on a league-by-league basis. I still don't think Kravtsov will top out better than Zadina, but I don't think the gap between the two will be enormous. Again, it's moot because we never had a shot at Zadina. I was just commenting on how the Rangers had him ranked as their 2nd best forward on the board behind Svechnikov.

Perhaps they liked Kravstov's ceiling more and were intrigued by the player he could be if he puts it all together.

The one thing I always try to emphasize is that rankings can be a bit misleading --- whether its the Rangers draft list, or how we rank prospects on here.

The difference between the player ranked second and the player ranked fourth could be particularly small, or even a matter of preference.

How teams rate prospects sometimes isn't all that different than the scores you see at the Olympics:

On paper one athlete finishes first and the other fourth. But the difference in scores/or times is pretty close.

Yeah, it was more of a comment on how the Rangers ranked the two. For all I know, they had Zadina 3, so I'm really discussing nothing here. I would be curious to hear their arguments as to why they'd think Kravtsov has a higher ceiling than Zadina. It would be a pretty good hockey discussion since both forwards are very dynamic in different ways.

 

[Kovalev27]

feels like a lot of the media slept on this kid. just didn't see him play because many of them have nothing on him. You could sit on the couch all year and see a ton of wahlstrom against kids but nothing of kravtsov. feels like that's what happened. some guys don't even have him in their top 50 prospects. have a feeling he's going to get hyped up going into the WJC and then if he has a coming out like mittelstadt did then he'll earn that respect.

 

[romba]

I can't remember the last time we had a prospect that had Kravtsov's combo of vision, shiftiness and lightning quick hands. Just a very exciting player. In a tournament with that much space out there, he was dominant. Though even at this level, along the walls, D were able to knock him off the puck. I hope he fills out and gets stronger as his thin frame is one of the biggest developmental hurdles at this point. (which is a great place to be). I'm glad they're keeping him in the KHL and on bigger ice for another year. I'm hopeful the team learned its lesson with Buch and that Kravtsov has someone working with him on strengthening his core.

His skills sound a notch or two above Buch’s especially for the same age which is insanely exciting, but the strength issue against his peers is worrisome. Really need to toughen the teens up before the big show and starting the injury carrousel again.

 

[Edge]

Aside from the last sentence, this also doesn't distinguish them from any other organization's front office

Within reason.

I think there are a number of teams that tend to stick more to the consensus and usually don't roll the dice on picks. Some of it has to do with access and how they fund scouting, but they're usually not out there exploring off the map.

The Rangers have done a pretty good job of finding some hidden gems over the last 15 years, both in the draft and via free agency, and that mentality has carried down to the management we see in place today.

 

[haveandare]

His skills sound a notch or two above Buch’s especially for the same age which is insanely exciting, but the strength issue against his peers is worrisome. Really need to toughen the teens up before the big show and starting the injury carrousel again.

Eh, he's only 18 and he's got the height to put on a good amount of muscle. He should be ok strength-wise.

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

His skills sound a notch or two above Buch’s especially for the same age which is insanely exciting, but the strength issue against his peers is worrisome. Really need to toughen the teens up before the big show and starting the injury carrousel again.

it isn't worrisome at all.

Most players (even great ones) are not physically mature enough to play in the NHL at 18.

He isn't done growing, he'll be fine.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Would the need for a 3C last year translate into draft narrative as much if Pettersson or Glass didn’t get taken before the Rangers puck though?

I think going into the draft they were going to stick to their board for the first couple of players on it, but after that, you are picking between your 3rd, 4th, 5th option. Why is it so unlikely that considerations other than BPA would factor in?

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

I think they would've liked for him to step right in. I think there was the belief he probably could.

But I don't think that was the underlying reason for why they drafted him.

I think they drafted him because they wanted a player in the ROR, Horvat, etc. kind of mold --- a core player who helps set the tone for his team.

If he could've stepped right into the NHL, even better. But not necessarily the primary reason.

But he couldn't, and we saw that.

I really don't like this "he is somewhat comparable in playing style to a decent player, so the pick is justified" type of thought process. It completely ignores that ROR, Horvat are a best case scenario for that type of player. Andersson was not ranked 7 by just about any source out there. The Rangers reached. They were clearly going for a center. McKenzie stated so before the draft, and he's revealing all the picks before they happen, so he's certainly up to date on this stuff. I guess the Rangers could've had Andersson 1st on the list of centers, but they probably didn't.

When you look at what we know, it seems like Pettersson was #1 on our draft board among those centers, if you believe what Benning was saying. There was a belief that Glass was #2. I remember Gorton when interviewed after the draft made a reference to not getting the players he wanted or saying something to that effect. Maybe I'm reading too much into his words, but it didn't appear like they thought Andersson was BPA at the spot they took him.

And whether or not Andersson could've stepped in, we do know that he was considered one of the most NHL ready centers and the Rangers needed to fill the 3C spot. Teams all the time don't select the BPA or let positional and roster needs, guide their draft board in the first round.

 

[GeorgeKaplan]

I think going into the draft they were going to stick to their board for the first couple of players on it, but after that, you are picking between your 3rd, 4th, 5th option. Why is it so unlikely that considerations other than BPA would factor in?

I just think Andersson being “the most NHL ready guy in the draft” is more coincidental than the narrative of “they only drafted him because they needed a 3C.” When has this front office ever forced a kid that was just drafted onto the NHL roster?

I also think there’s more evidence that says he’s got a higher ceiling than people around here want to give him credit for to support that the Rangers thinking he was actually the BPA at that spot. Whether anyone that agrees with them thinking that or not is a different matter.

 

[OrlandK]

When you look at what we know, it seems like Pettersson was #1 on our draft board among those centers, if you believe what Benning was saying. There was a belief that Glass was #2. I remember Gorton when interviewed after the draft made a reference to not getting the players he wanted or saying something to that effect. Maybe I'm reading too much into his words, but it didn't appear like they thought Andersson was BPA at the spot they took him.

I don't think you are reading too much into it; I think you are dead on. I recall too that it became pretty obvious that the Rangers had several others on the BPA board before Andersson and the draft didn't fall their way; happens. I recall that they also would have taken Cale Makar in addition to Petterson and Glass if available at 7. Seems like the 3 picks before theirs were the 3 guys they would have taken before Lias. Probably a low probability that it would happen like that but it did. So you take your next best pick and move on.

 

[Harbour Dog]

Regarding Andersson, I'm sure they came to an agreement to take him as the BPA; but it wasn't kept a secret that Kallur pushed very hard to select him.

It isn't as if the scouting department was in near unison. They could have been looking at a tier of a half dozen players with very little to separate them. It's very possible that there was a bunch of dissension with very little consensus, and Kallur was more dogged with his opinion than most.

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

feels like a lot of the media slept on this kid. just didn't see him play because many of them have nothing on him. You could sit on the couch all year and see a ton of wahlstrom against kids but nothing of kravtsov. feels like that's what happened. some guys don't even have him in their top 50 prospects. have a feeling he's going to get hyped up going into the WJC and then if he has a coming out like mittelstadt did then he'll earn that respect.

That's the thing. The people who did see him play, even before he started producing in the Gagarin playoffs, saw what he could do. The talent was there. I watch quite a few KHL games since they usually start late in the afternoon for me when I am at work stuck in boring meetings so I have a game on, on my 3rd screen. It helps me get through the final 2 hours of work haha.

Kravtsov is the guy I wanted even before we dropped a spot in the lottery. I knew people would complain if we did pick him, because he's considered a reach (he isn't) but so be it. I am still thrilled the Rangers picked the one guy I wanted, the year I flew to the US to attend a draft for the very first time.

 

[Edge]

But he couldn't, and we saw that.

I really don't like this "he is somewhat comparable in playing style to a decent player, so the pick is justified" type of thought process. It completely ignores that ROR, Horvat are a best case scenario for that type of player. Andersson was not ranked 7 by just about any source out there. The Rangers reached. They were clearly going for a center. McKenzie stated so before the draft, and he's revealing all the picks before they happen, so he's certainly up to date on this stuff. I guess the Rangers could've had Andersson 1st on the list of centers, but they probably didn't.

When you look at what we know, it seems like Pettersson was #1 on our draft board among those centers, if you believe what Benning was saying. There was a belief that Glass was #2. I remember Gorton when interviewed after the draft made a reference to not getting the players he wanted or saying something to that effect. Maybe I'm reading too much into his words, but it didn't appear like they thought Andersson was BPA at the spot they took him.

And whether or not Andersson could've stepped in, we do know that he was considered one of the most NHL ready centers and the Rangers needed to fill the 3C spot. Teams all the time don't select the BPA or let positional and roster needs, guide their draft board in the first round.

Nothing personal, but I've beaten most of these points to death at this point. I just don't have it in me for this week's episode of the Lias Andersson debate.

In short:

I don't think the puck was unjustified. I don't think most people think the pick was unjustified.

I think the Rangers had him as the highest ranked of who was left after Pettersson and Glass (or tied). The fact that he was a center had less to do with what they were looking for short-term, and more to do with there being a cluster of centers left on the board.

Be it Andersson, Vilardi, Mittelstadt, Rasmussen, or Suzuki, the odds were pretty good that the guy at the top of their list was going to be a center --- not surprising when you consider that 9 of the top 13 picks were centers in that draft.

 

[charliemurphy]

GOAT user name. In my head, I only hear his name in Chappelles Rick James voice.

LOL... I remember getting a bunch of laughs back when I joined HF with it. Even from the folks that thought Ortmeyer would be the next captain and were getting all excited over Josef Balej.

 

[broadwayblue]

LOL... I remember getting a bunch of laughs back when I joined HF with it. Even from the folks that thought Ortmeyer would be the next captain and were getting all excited over Josef Balej.

Who can forget this one?

 

[Edge]

I remember Balej, and later Hossa, did very little for me.

They felt like so many generic finesse players who came before who could dangle and dazzle, but couldn't really translate those skills consistently to the pro game.

 

[TheTakedown]

Anyone out there still wish the Rangers took Wahlstrom over Kravtsov???

How is Wahlstrom doing (comparative to Kravstov) at this point? I am legitimately curious

 

[Fvital92]

How is Wahlstrom doing (comparative to Kravstov) at this point? I am legitimately curious

He hasn't played yet.

 

[The Crypto Guy]

How is Wahlstrom doing (comparative to Kravstov) at this point? I am legitimately curious

I mean, there really is much to go on yet since the draft. Wahlstorm was in the WJC summer event and did before below average, but that was a small sample size.