NHL Entry Draft 2018 Draft - Prospect Discussion (Poll added)

[Hale The Villain]

Give me Dobson,He may not be the flashiest name,but he is an absolute must if we are losing a top end RHD this off season

Don't like drafting for need, but man look at what our future D looks like without Karlsson:

Chabot - Ceci
Wolanin - Jaros
Harpur - Lajoie

I'm sure a potential top 4 D will be coming back when Karlsson is traded, but it's still not enough.

 

[Daffy]

The thing that makes me hesitant to lump Tkachuk with that group is that Tkachuk has proven to be a dominant player against high skilled players when lined up against them. For instance, all those "tough" powerforwards struggled immensely against the high skilled tourneys such as U20 or u18.

Tkachuk has not only produced, he was among the very best. Tkachuk has the stick-handling, playmaking, vision in-close, and soft hands that those other power forwards lack.

Even though Tkachuk's totals in BU weren't outstanding, he played on a team that didn't really have amazing offensive support. He was a mainstay on any line that was "the top line" and had excellent 2 way impact while sporting the worst shooting % on any player or defender in top 6/4. While leading the team in shots.

Low shooting percentage isn't a positive for me. Sure, he might be a little unlucky. But more likely is the fact he probably just doesn't have a good shot.

 

[topshelf15]

Don't like drafting for need, but man look at what our future D looks like without Karlsson:

Chabot - Ceci
Wolanin - Jaros
Harpur - Lajoie

I'm sure a potential top 4 D will be coming back when Karlsson is traded, but it's still not enough.

Yep good defenders are always a need,even if we keep EK i think drafting Dobson is a good idea...It gives us depth at both LH and the RH slots...Thus allowing the main focus to shift on improving the forwards

 

[Micklebot]

Context is important.

Pastrnak's draft year was his 17YR old season. Dahlen and Pettersson were 18 in their drafts years, which is why their production appears to be superior. Forsberg didn't play big minutes in his draft year, which is why his production appears lacking in comparison. And it's harder to score against grown men than college players. A PPG in the SHL or Allsvenskan means a lot more than a PPG in college.

Scheifele, Johansen and Barzal were all 17YRs old in their draft seasons. At the same age Scheifele had 23G in 47GP, Johansen had 40G in 63GP and Barzal had 27G in 58GP. All 3 are also far superior playmakers than Tkachuk.

Tkachuk's production isn't impressive no matter how you slice it. It doesn't mean he won't be a good NHLer, but it does indicate his ceiling may not be high enough to warrant a top 5 pick.

It's also harder to score in college than the CHL, Vollman had a production translation chart for the various leagues, the latest I could find follows. Of note, SHL-1 would be below SHL, but I'm not sure how much. Vollman's explainer suggested other leagues not on this had insufficient data with not enough players making the transition to the NHL, so you'd have to run a translation of SHL-1 to SHL first and then translate that to NHL to figure out where it is relative to the others. I imagine it`s closer to H-East than SHL, but I really can`t say for sure, however, a player like Mathias Brome scored near a pts per game in the SHL-1 and went to score at have that pace when Mora moved up to the SHL the next year, as did his Team mate Nilsson so my suspicion is it`s much harder to score in the SHL than the SHL-1 .

0.74 KHL
0.58 SHL
0.47 AHL
0.43 SM-Liiga, Swiss NLA, NCHC
0.38 H-East
0.33 Big 10
0.30 OHL
0.29 WHL
0.25 QMJHL
0.23 ECAC

I agree Tkachuk's numbers aren't impressive on their own, but comparing goals in hockey east vs the Q for example is not a fair comparison at all either, particularly when you discount games played on top of the different leagues.

 

[FolignoQuantumLeap]

The thing that makes me hesitant to lump Tkachuk with that group is that Tkachuk has proven to be a dominant player against high skilled players when lined up against them. For instance, all those "tough" powerforwards struggled immensely against the high skilled tourneys such as U20 or u18.

Tkachuk has not only produced, he was among the very best. Tkachuk has the stick-handling, playmaking, vision in-close, and soft hands that those other power forwards lack.

Even though Tkachuk's totals in BU weren't outstanding, he played on a team that didn't really have amazing offensive support. He was a mainstay on any line that was "the top line" and had excellent 2 way impact while sporting the worst shooting % on any player or defender in top 6/4. While leading the team in shots.

I definitely think he's got quality vision and decent hands for a big guy. My biggest worry with him is he's mostly a pass first guy who's best asset is his playmaking game.

I don't really value playmaking wingers highly. It's very hard to wrap my mind around drafting one in the top 10 when I see so many other can't miss prospects. I want guys on the wing who can finish and skate. The finishing aspect of his game is questionable and the skating while good isn't gonna be gsmebreaking.

 

[Agent Zuuuub]

How accurate is comparing the production of Shane Bowers and Tkachuk? Bowers is only 2 months older and much less physically developed.

 

[Micklebot]

I definitely think he's got quality vision and decent hands for a big guy. My biggest worry with him is he's mostly a pass first guy who's best asset is his playmaking game.

I don't really value playmaking wingers highly. It's very hard to wrap my mind around drafting one in the top 10 when I see so many other can't miss prospects. I want guys on the wing who can finish and skate. The finishing aspect of his game is questionable and the skating while good isn't gonna be gsmebreaking.

He led the league in shots didn't he? I'm not sure he qualifies as pass first. You can worry about whether it was poor puck luck or him being a bad shooter that led to his 6% shooting percentage, fairs fair, but I really don't see him as a pass first guy. Seems pretty well rounded in that respect and will take the chances that are given to him. His release to me looks really quick, and he's got a heavy one timer. Maybe he snipes crests, time will tell, but I see a lot of positives in his shot that just weren't going in.

 

[Hale The Villain]

How accurate is comparing the production of Shane Bowers and Tkachuk? Bowers is only 2 months older and much less physically developed.

It is 100% accurate. They are both '99s and therefore should be compared statistically to one another.

After doing so, if one wants to make the argument that Bowers being two months older is some great advantage, be my guest.

 

[Benjamin]

TL;DR on the top 10 based on play styles and realistically how good they can be? Points they could hit, how long til they can play in the NHL and similar players. Please.

 

[Wondercarrot]

Anyone down with Bokk at 21?
They used Havlat as a comparable & now I don’t care about anyone else.

 

[ReginKarlssonLehner]

No one is saying that Tkachuk is a bad player or that we don't need him. However, his upside is that of an elite complimentary player and i don't understand how anyone can justify drafting a complimentary scoring player at 4.

People are being blinded by his name and because he has better physical tools than his brother, while ignoring that Matthew Tkachuk runs away in the hockey IQ department.

Will he be useful? Undoubtedly. But what the Ottawa Senators need is a player who can potentially become one of the best at his position. We need elite talent. Drafting Tkachuk would be small minded.

The thing is, after the top 3, I don't see any star level forwards that are must take over Tkachuk, sure some guys may have higher ceilings but much higher risk too. Only person id think long and hard on is Kotk.

I definitely think he's got quality vision and decent hands for a big guy. My biggest worry with him is he's mostly a pass first guy who's best asset is his playmaking game.

I don't really value playmaking wingers highly. It's very hard to wrap my mind around drafting one in the top 10 when I see so many other can't miss prospects. I want guys on the wing who can finish and skate. The finishing aspect of his game is questionable and the skating while good isn't gonna be gsmebreaking.

Who are some of these other can't miss prospects, in particular forward prospects? If we truly believe Dobson can be a number 1 D and has a realistic ceiling as a top pair defender then I'll pick him instead.

If we truly mean business, we will find another way to move our 22nd pick or get a top 10 pick and select whichever D remains of bouchard/Quinn/dobson/boqvist or select Kotk.

 

[TheBradyBunch]

Anyone down with Bokk at 21?
They used Havlat as a comparable & now I don’t care about anyone else.

We pick at #22 but I suspect most people would be thrilled with Bokk if he is still available. I get the sense that he is one of the few guys who could really shoot up the draft charts, though. I'd be surprised if he is available at #22 but if he is I hope we select him.

 

[Icelevel]

That kind of production is closer to his ceiling than floor based on what he's done in the past.

50 point floor territory is reserved for big time offensive guys who put up big numbers. 50 points was about 115th overall in scoring this year with guys like Jeff Skinner, Adam Henrique, Henrik Sedin, Patrick Hornqvist and Tyler Johnson.

Tkachuk's floor is on a 3rd or 4th line.

Nope you are wrong. Apologies

 

[Sens in Process]

It is 100% accurate. They are both '99s and therefore should be compared statistically to one another.

After doing so, if one wants to make the argument that Bowers being two months older is some great advantage, be my guest.

Can we do the same with Mittlestadt and Tkachuk? Mittlestadt is ten months older, and averaged 0.88 points per game to Brady's 0.78.

Mittlestadt is supposed to be a high end offensive juggernaut. The Big Ten and Hockey East are two highly competitive conferences, so I am not sure if you can make a case Mittelstadt had tougher competition.

But the Bowers vs Tkachuk question is a really good one.....

I was asking the same question months ago, when people in the HF hive were still calling Bowers a bad pick.

First off, Bowers is actually a really solid prospect.

Second, Tkachuk played on a make-shift line with Greenway(who was converted to center from the wing) and Drew Melanson. Melanson is undrafted player, who has averaged 0.42 points per game over a 100+ game college career. I just don't think Tkachuk was given a chance.

Quinn has moved him to center with the idea that it will push Greenway to be better and more involved in the play, something that has not always come intuitively to him. Playing center forces him to be more alert, with more responsibility.

Greenway aiming to be next great American player in NHL

I am quite certain Tkachuk, if he decides to stay in college, will surpass Mittelstadt's 0.88 ppg as a 19 year old.

 

[Icelevel]

After first three studs, Tkachuk is a huge drop off, third line player, who is good for 30-40+ points a season. He is overrated to draft him at number 4.

EIther a joke or you are wrong as well

 

[Agent Zuuuub]

Mittelstadt has projectable elite skills. His hands and creativity are up there with the very best. Mittelstadt was a dominant player on the ice and you can see by just watching him that he was special.

I've never gotten that impression with Tkachuk, because he's just not as skilled.

 

[Agent Zuuuub]

The thing is, after the top 3, I don't see any star level forwards that are must take over Tkachuk, sure some guys may have higher ceilings but much higher risk too. Only person id think long and hard on is Kotk.



Who are some of these other can't miss prospects, in particular forward prospects? If we truly believe Dobson can be a number 1 D and has a realistic ceiling as a top pair defender then I'll pick him instead.

If we truly mean business, we will find another way to move our 22nd pick or get a top 10 pick and select whichever D remains of bouchard/Quinn/dobson/boqvist or select Kotk.

I'd argue guys like Bokk, Kravstov and Kaut who will be taken after 10 all have higher potential than Tkachuk.

And even if there are no can't miss forward prospects after Svechnikov it doesn't mean that we have to settle for a forward. There are tons of high upside D in this draft.

 

[Wallet Inspector]

On one hand taking 1 F and 1 D with our two 1st rounders seem like the wiser thing to do, but on the other taking Zadina with 4th and Bokk or Kaut at 22 would go a long way to rebuilding our top 6(especially if we are trading Hoffman).

 

[ReginKarlssonLehner]

I'd argue guys like Bokk, Kravstov and Kaut who will be taken after 10 all have higher potential than Tkachuk.

And even if there are no can't miss forward prospects after Svechnikov it doesn't mean that we have to settle for a forward. There are tons of high upside D in this draft.

That's the blessing of having 2 first rounders.

We can get a solid contributor like Tkachuk with first one and then try to go with a homerun with someone like Bokk or Kaut

 

[ReginKarlssonLehner]

On one hand taking 1 F and 1 D with our two 1st rounders seem like the wiser thing to do, but on the other taking Zadina with 4th and Bokk or Kaut at 22 would go a long way to rebuilding our top 6(especially if we are trading Hoffman).

If we know we are trading EK then I think we definitely drafting Dobson or using one of the picks for a defender.

 

[bdp]

Sending the pick to Colorado should be a legit option. All the guys available at 4 have some red flags that would make it acceptable to trade the pick. Plus we have another 1st, possibly two if Hoffman is traded.

Too bad this management is super arrogant and think we'll be a playoff team, even without Karlsson.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

 

[SENATOR]

 

[Micklebot]

Sending the pick to Colorado should be a legit option. All the guys available at 4 have some red flags that would make it acceptable to trade the pick. Plus we have another 1st, possibly two if Hoffman is traded.

Too bad this management is super arrogant and think we'll be a playoff team, even without Karlsson.

So we give up the pick, and odds are we end up with a worse pick next year? Because even if we finish dead last in the league, odds are better than 50% that we get 4th OA again. It's not like next year's 4th OA is going to be a sure fire superstar.

 

[bdp]

Sending the pick to Colorado should be a legit option. All the guys available at 4 have some red flags that would make it acceptable to trade the pick. Plus we have another 1st, possibly two if Hoffman is traded.

Too bad this management is super arrogant and think we'll be a playoff team, even without Karlsson.

If Montreal takes Zadina, trade the pick. But I can't remember if we have to trade the pick before Montreal selects or if we can wait until after.