NHL Entry Draft 2018 Draft - Prospect Discussion (Poll added)

[FolignoQuantumLeap]

Probabilities are fun to look at from past drafts but the reality is they have very little to do with how the next guy is gonna do. Its about evaluating the individual not his predecessors. I feel like that's a bit of a fallacy and Bondra's point above where he points out the guys who generally bust in recent years are the big defensive types who lack skill. None of the top Dmen from this draft lack skill and skating ability. Even maybe the worst skater of the bunch in Bouchard is far from a bad skater. He could skate circles around some of the guys in the final right now in McNabb, Englund, Kempny, Djoos or Orpik.

 

[Gil Gunderson]

Probabilities are fun to look at from past drafts but the reality is they have very little to do with how the next guy is gonna do. Its about evaluating the individual not his predecessors. I feel like that's a bit of a fallacy and Bondra's point above where he points out the guys who generally bust in recent years are the big defensive types who lack skill. None of the top Dmen from this draft lack skill and skating ability. Even maybe the worst skater of the bunch in Bouchard is far from a bad skater. He could skate circles around some of the guys in the final right now in McNabb, Englund, Kempny, Djoos or Orpik.

I imagine his skating concerns are due to his style of play. He likes to take risks and join the rush.

 

[Gil Gunderson]

Hmmm

 

[Nac Mac Feegle]

Yeah, trying to gauge trends with an event that happens once per year, especially when the NHL (and hockey in general) has been going through a huge culture shift over the past decade.....it seems like an exercise in futility.

Too many things change from year to year. When Cowen was drafted, the goal around the NHL was to find the next Chris Pronger. Today, it's to find the next Erik Karlsson.

 

[DrunkUncleDenis]

My top 10 list as of now sits at:

xx
Svech
Zadina
Dobson
Tkachuk
Bouchard
Hughes
Kotkaniemi
Boqvist
Wahlstrom

I think I'll be ecstatic with Zadina, pleased with Dobson, happy with Brady, and just accepting of Bouchard.

I'd love to get another top 10, but that sort of signals a full-on rebuild, which would in itself be initially disappointing given the repercussions of that decision.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

It would not surprise me if Zadina fell to 5 or 6. That said if he falls to the Sens and the Sens take him , I will trust their judgement on that ..as I would if they take Tkachuk , Dobson, Bouchard

 

[Sens in Process]

Yeah, trying to gauge trends with an event that happens once per year, especially when the NHL (and hockey in general) has been going through a huge culture shift over the past decade.....it seems like an exercise in futility.

Too many things change from year to year. When Cowen was drafted, the goal around the NHL was to find the next Chris Pronger. Today, it's to find the next Erik Karlsson.

The goal is different, but the risk of missing the mark remains the same.

Being significantly faster than your peers, as a D-men, in junior can compensate for a lot of deficiencies that will get exposed at the pro-level. Ryan Murphy and Honka, two poster boys of the new NHL, have proven to be dubious picks and they were just taken outside the top ten.

Speed doesn't equal certainty when projecting D-men.

 

[harrisb]

If Zadina falls to 4 and we don't grab him that is a huge mistake, guy has a motor, creates and great vision. We need to select the highest skill guy available, when your top 6 includes guys like Bobby and Dzingle we have some serious gaps. On the backend if EK leaves we are royally screwed unless a some solid D who are ready now come back.

Tkachuk if he were middle or younger for his draft class I'd be ok with it but it scares me that he is one of the oldest players available and I feel his tires are being pumped due to his family name and also his brother fanning the flames. Matt does not equal Brady, one is pure skill the other is more of a grinder type. We need skill and I don't feel Tkachuk will ever bring that, he'll end up a tweener in my mind.

 

[Zorf]

Murray Pam tweeted something interesting yesterday. I cant' see tweeters on my work computer so I apologize if it's already been posted.

It's a quote from Zadina about the Habs: "Montreal, I know very well. I've been to the city many times and their fans are awesome. But I think they're looking for a centre or a D."


I'm going full Mr. Burns right now with the "Excellent" thing.

 

[DrunkUncleDenis]

Murray Pam tweeted something interesting yesterday. I cant' see tweeters on my work computer so I apologize if it's already been posted.

It's a quote from Zadina about the Habs: "Montreal, I know very well. I've been to the city many times and their fans are awesome. But I think they're looking for a centre or a D."


I'm going full Mr. Burns right now with the "Excellent" thing.

Ya, it's 6 posts up, but I too share your reaction.

 

[Micklebot]

I feel as though Zadina will fall to us, and we'll pass on him. I just hope we don't draft this year's Brian Lee...

 

[harrisb]

I feel as though Zadina will fall to us, and we'll pass on him. I just hope we don't draft this year's Brian Lee...

If we pass on Zadina we're idiots, if we had a properly sized scouting staff it would be easily argued him to be the defacto choice at 4 if he somehow falls. If a team drafts for team need rather than BPA in the top 3 you need to take advantage of that and we'd be sliding that advantage to #5

 

[stempniaksen]

We wouldn't be passing on Zadina to draft a need, we'd be passing on Zadina because the team doesn't feel he's the BPA. I think there's an argument to be made that he's not (although I'd still have him 3/4 personally) and if there's one area where the team has earned our trust it's the scouting department. I'll be happy with whoever we end up with (unless those Boqvist rumours come to fruition).

 

[harrisb]

We wouldn't be passing on Zadina to draft a need, we'd be passing on Zadina because the team doesn't feel he's the BPA. I think there's an argument to be made that he's not (although I'd still have him 3/4 personally) and if there's one area where the team has earned our trust it's the scouting department. I'll be happy with whoever we end up with (unless those Boqvist rumours come to fruition).

Why are we so confident in our scouting department? Late round picks Hoffman, Stone, Dzingle, etc are not good drafting, those are flyers that we literally got lucky on, outside of EK when have we really scored on a 1st or 2nd rounder in the last say 5yrs?

 

[stempniaksen]

Why are we so confident in our scouting department? Late round picks Hoffman, Stone, Dzingle, etc are not good drafting, those are flyers that we literally got lucky on, outside of EK when have we really scored on a 1st or 2nd rounder in the last say 5yrs?

Thomas Chabot and Cody Ceci for starters. We've also got guys like Brown, White, Formenton and Chlapik on the way (I know they won't all hit, but they are looking good so far). We also drafted Dahlen, who is looking good (mind you for another team).

 

[BondraTime]

Why are we so confident in our scouting department? Late round picks Hoffman, Stone, Dzingle, etc are not good drafting, those are flyers that we literally got lucky on, outside of EK when have we really scored on a 1st or 2nd rounder in the last say 5yrs?

Of course that's good drafting, don't be foolish.

Batherson wasn't good drafting either...

Some of the stuff here lately, man

 

[YouGotAStuGoing]

Of course that's good drafting, don't be foolish.

Batherson wasn't good drafting either...

Some of the stuff here lately, man

Honestly. Once or twice, sure, maybe luck. But we hit on low picks at a very high rate. That's a trend.

 

[Micklebot]

Why are we so confident in our scouting department? Late round picks Hoffman, Stone, Dzingle, etc are not good drafting, those are flyers that we literally got lucky on, outside of EK when have we really scored on a 1st or 2nd rounder in the last say 5yrs?

Late round picks are traditionally where good scouting departments earn their keep. Dismissing them as purely luck I don't think is fair.

We certainly have our blindspots when it comes to drafting (those overage picks seem not to be panning out, and we've missed on some 1st round picks too) but there are a lot of quality picks recently. Batherson and Formenton shot up the ranks after being drafted, as has Chabot and Dahlen. There's a case to be made for Chlapik as well.



.

 

[TheBradyBunch]

Late round picks are traditionally where good scouting departments earn their keep. Dismissing them as purely luck I don't think is fair.

We certainly have our blindspots when it comes to drafting (those overage picks seem not to be panning out, and we've missed on some 1st round picks too) but there are a lot of quality picks recently. Batherson and Formenton shot up the ranks after being drafted, as has Chabot and Dahlen. There's a case to be made for Chlapik as well.

Just saying, Batherson was an overage pick. So was Wolanin. And Lajoie. And Jaros.

Similarly, I could see us taking Joey Keane in round 4 and I think that would be an incredible pick.

Agreed with the rest of your post, though.

 

[harrisb]

Thomas Chabot and Cody Ceci for starters. We've also got guys like Brown, White, Formenton and Chlapik on the way (I know they won't all hit, but they are looking good so far). We also drafted Dahlen, who is looking good (mind you for another team).

I'd agree on Chabot but the others are still magic beans and Ceci is barely a top 4 and isn't one on a competent D core.

Now go take a look at other teams and how they've done, start with St Louis and Tampa, mix in the leafs and almost any other team. They all have these guys coming but most also have some blue chippers, where are our blue chippers? Our drafting is vastly overrated and that is partially why our prospect pool has been perennially in the bottom half of the league.

I know you guys are excited about our prospects but so is every fanbase and we really haven't been outperforming anyone in regards to drafting.

 

[BondraTime]

I'd agree on Chabot but the others are still magic beans and Ceci is barely a top 4 and isn't one on a competent D core.

Now go take a look at other teams and how they've done, start with St Louis and Tampa, mix in the leafs and almost any other team. They all have these guys coming but most also have some blue chippers, where are our blue chippers? Our drafting is vastly overrated and that is partially why our prospect pool has been perennially in the bottom half of the league.

I know you guys are excited about our prospects but so is every fanbase and we really haven't been outperforming anyone in regards to drafting.

At least we have you here to spit the awful truth to us who don't have knowledge on the subject

 

[SAK11]

Just saying, Batherson was an overage pick. So was Wolanin. And Lajoie. And Jaros.

Similarly, I could see us taking Joey Keane in round 4 and I think that would be an incredible pick.

Agreed with the rest of your post, though.

Dzingel and Hoffman were overage picks, too.

 

[Micklebot]

Just saying, Batherson was an overage pick. So was Wolanin. And Lajoie. And Jaros.

Similarly, I could see us taking Joey Keane in round 4 and I think that would be an incredible pick.

Agreed with the rest of your post, though.

should have said some of those overage picks, a couple of really questionable ones in the tier 2 leagues (NAHL, EJHL ect) and some reaches out of the USHL but you're right, we made some hits with overage guys too, it's not so much that part of it that's the problem so I'm a little off base in that regard.

 

[TheBradyBunch]

Dzingel and Hoffman were overage picks, too.

Yeah we have several successes going back, I was just doing recent ones.

Smith, Claesson, Wideman and Borowiecki were all over-agers as well.

 

[TheBradyBunch]

should have said some of those overage picks, a couple of really questionable ones in the tier 2 leagues (NAHL, EJHL ect) and some reaches out of the USHL but you're right, we made some hits with overage guys too, it's not so much that part of it that's the problem so I'm a little off base in that regard.

I think the bigger issue is the leagues where we are drafting the overage players from, as you say in your post.

We do tend to have success with overagers, just not when we're taking them from low level leagues.