If you want to win a medal you have to beat a strong team sooner or later. I prefer European teams to the NA ones in the QFs, but the difference isn't huge. USA is the worst case scenario.Let's say they finish 3rd in the group behind Sweden and Russia, there is a decent chance that they will play Canada or the US in the QF, don't like those matchups, even Finland could be tough, if they play Canada I say they have very little chance, the other teams a tiny bit more but not much, basically they have to win the group to avoid a bad matchup.
I will be happy if they for once manage to beat Switzerland and borderline destroy Belarus, although I am not optimistic even about that.