Some thoughts at the 25 game mark
1. Botterill/Housley are the frontrunners for Exec/Coach of the Year, and it's not close. We may have complaints about individual decisions, but the results are deafening. The system is sinking in, and the culture change is real. I think there are only two types of people at this point: people who think "culture" is an overblown concept and doesn't really mean anything, and people who think Botts nailed it (now, whether that's more from shipping out ROR, or swapping Lehner/Johnson for Hutton/Ullmark, or acquiring Skinner etc., I think we can all fairly speculate).
2. The roster was decided in August, and that may turn out to be a good thing. We saw substantially better forwards get sent down in camp than the ones who made it -- and, dare I say, Pilut might be the best defenseman in the Sabres organization this year. But accepting all that, look at the long-term cap situation. If we intend to sign Skinner, Reinhart, Mittelstadt, Dahlin to long-term deals, we're going to need cheaper bridge deals for some of the guys who are buried right now. What does burying a guy do? Makes him cheaper. Hell, look at Ullmark -- I think he could have had the starter's job, but we'll probably save $2M signing him as a backup next summer as opposed to giving him 50 games this year. With the team winning, it makes it fully justifiable to bury good players until you have to play them, because they're RFAs and you're really going to need them cheap down the line.
3. Sam Reinhart is the bellwether of Botterill's cap management strategy. Botts took cap dumps in order to build the roster this summer. He left himself inadequate money to sign Sam long-term. He will have to pay Sam a lot more on his next deal, but it could work out if he's smart enough with his money elsewhere (e.g., what's McCabe's next deal look like? Is he trade bait if he asks too much?). Especially if they sign Skinner, summer 2020 will be interesting.
4. First place feels a bit inflated. In terms of ranking teams based on their playoff chances, I prefer to count only 5-on-5 play, meaning everything tied at the end of regulation is basically a tie in terms of "real" hockey. In that world, the Sabres slip to 10-6-9 for 29 points, and the league leaders would the Preds at 15-7-3 for 33 points. Sabres would be fifth, behind the Preds, Lightning, Leafs and Avs. Still remarkable, just saying.
5. That said, this could be our year. I know it's not fashionable to say. But everybody was guarding their skepticism in November 2005, too. Hell, even the next season, we all thought 06-07 was the real peak. But in hindsight, 05-06 was the most complete team we put together in my lifetime. Now, I'm not saying go out and grab the biggest trade deadline name available, a top line/pairing talent who'll cost a fortune and leave in three months. But I am saying don't put us in the position of the 06 ECF Sabres. Identify our biggest weaknesses in terms of depth, and get something to help bolster the squad. Make sure you don't lose because you some targeted misfortune makes it impossible to win. Maybe this year, that ask is a responsible, mobile 3C, e.g. Take your chances seriously. Weirder shit has happened, and FFS, if Buffalo is ever going to win a championship, it has to be in the most unlikely fashion possible, right?
And enjoy the ride, everybody. We've soooooooooooo earned it.
