2018-19 Roster Speculation Pt. 3: Started from the bottom now we're here

[dortt]

as for Girgs, the time to trade him was before the 2015-2016 season, after he had a strong end of the 2014-2015 season. Could have got a first plus a prospect for him then. Now, be lucky to get a 4th

 

[Reddawg]

Except Girgensons. For some reason, nobody brings up the fact he was 1st round pick 14th overall when discussing him...The way people talk about him, you would think he was a 3rd round pick or later.

Well, sadly...that’s the reputation his play to this point has warranted. He’s a former 14th overall who has resulted in a midlevel 4th line winger. That’s what he is, bottom line. He helps the team in that role, don’t get me wrong, but that’s his role now and (at best) in the future.

 

[joshjull]

My only thing is, can’t he positively impact his linemates from the wing as well as center?

Not saying this to criticize you specifically, but he did spend some of that first half of last year jostling between center and wing. Eichel was on the “spittin chicklets” podcast over the summer, I think it’s part of Barstool Sports. And during the interview they brought up Reinhart, and Jack specifically said that when he talked with Sam he said he was more comfortable in the wing. So if I’m coaching and I see more production from a player on the wing, and he says he prefers to play him at wing, I’m likely going to play him at wing.

I believe Reinhart can still positively impact his linemates from the wing. It’s one reason that when Pominville is healthy or a Rochester player comes up and grabs a spot, I’d try to move Reinhart onto a line with Sheary, with Rodrigues possibly centering.

So when healthy, I would roll:
Skinner-Eichel-Pominville
Thompson-Mittelstadt-Okposo
Sheary-Rodrigues-Reinhart
Girgensons-Larsson-Berglund

He can certainly stay on the wing. My initial post was just spitballing ideas.

 

[OkimLom]

Well, sadly...that’s the reputation his play to this point has warranted. He’s a former 14th overall who has resulted in a midlevel 4th line winger. That’s what he is, bottom line. He helps the team in that role, don’t get me wrong, but that’s his role now and (at best) in the future.

I'm aware and agree. But I was just making the comment about Girgensons not being held by the fanbase like other 1st round picks, and I don't remember anybody complaining about how bad he's playing "as a former 1st round pick".

 

[Aladyyn]

Plus, Housley is more worried about winning now than tinkering with the lineup to help Botterill make future decisions.

So is this a winning year, or a building year?

 

[Aladyyn]

And since we're talking about Girgensons - he's 1st on the team in RelT xGF%. And even more surprisingly, it's not *all* defensive impact, though he's also best on the team on that side.

 

[dkollidas]

So is this a winning year, or a building year?

I think it’s a building year where they’ve performed better than expected so it’s got the possibility of turning into a bit of both. Their two franchise players are a 22yr old 1C and an 18yr old 1D and they’ve got 4 1st Round picks over the next two years. If you win, that’s great, but the build overrides the win at this point. You won’t trade a 1st for a rental, but you might trade a 3rd or a lower end prospect for a depth player for a playoff run to show the players you believe in them and want them to win.

 

[Der Jaeger]

In re:long-term center deployment, Botts likely imagines Jack and Mitts producing the offense, while guys like Larsson and (eventually) Asplund and Malone take on defensive duties. I don't anticipate them looking to acquire a "top-6" center from outside the organization - if anything, they can use one of their multiple 1st round picks in the next two seasons to address that area.

Long term, maybe. Unless Botterill wants someone more like Bonino as the 3C. If so, I’d kick tires on Sissons or maybe even Jared McCann.

Short term, I’d have no issues going after a player like Brassard.

 

[1972]

One of those 4 first rounders will be a pure centre I would think too. Not that it means anything with him many guys end up shifting to wing in the NHL.

 

[missingmika]

Well, sadly...that’s the reputation his play to this point has warranted. He’s a former 14th overall who has resulted in a midlevel 4th line winger. That’s what he is, bottom line. He helps the team in that role, don’t get me wrong, but that’s his role now and (at best) in the future.

Better than Erik Rasmussen! He was a 7th overall 4th liner.

 

[Djp]

I'm aware and agree. But I was just making the comment about Girgensons not being held by the fanbase like other 1st round picks, and I don't remember anybody complaining about how bad he's playing "as a former 1st round pick".

Coming out he was viewed as a defensive first 3rd line center. He can still play such a role.

 

[toomuchsauce]

I think we're finally seeing where this team is, developmentally. They are very talented, and their best talent is young, but they're not a great team overall...yet. They can be pesky against the top teams in the league, but they can't go toe-to-toe. They almost got lucky again tonight with goalie pulled, but that's how those bounces go.

They need more speed with skill in the forward group. Adding Dahlin to the defense changed the trajectory of the entire organization, and, now, it seems clear that the most desperate need is better, faster forwards.

I was on record as wanting to acquire Nylander, but now that he's signed, that ship has sailed (unless they want to trade him in the summer, but even then, the price is higher for a guy who is signed long term). I'm all for making 0ne significant trade to upgrade this team, promoting from within and going bargain hunting in the fancy-stats bin beyond that. This team's most glaring need is one more forward who can drive play on the "second" line. I don't know who it is. But, this team just is not complete and I don't think there's a guy in Rochester who is going to graduate into that role any time soon. Further, as much as I like Mittelstadt, I'm not counting on him to be there by the end of the year, either.

The only forwards on the team that are "young" by NHL standards are Mittelstadt and Thompson. Those guys are on pace for 28 and 24 points, respectively. That isn't great, tbqh, but we can hope they'll grow into better point-producers. It is also possible that Dahlin becomes so good that he can literally drag the team to a Cup final in a few years. But, that isn't really a "plan." I would advocate for, right now, targeting a forward who can help make this team competitive on a nightly basis, both now and 5 years from now. THEN letting the group marinate, draft well, develop, promote from within, etc. I just don't know who the right target should be.

Or, maybe they should just go full Nashville and acquire another elite defenseman and let the forwards just sort of...shake themselves out because we've already got a good forward core. idfk. But, it feels like they need to do something.

 

[Reddawg]

I'm aware and agree. But I was just making the comment about Girgensons not being held by the fanbase like other 1st round picks, and I don't remember anybody complaining about how bad he's playing "as a former 1st round pick".

I remember his first couple seasons when folks around here were talking about him as the future captain of the team...I don’t know where his game went since then but it’s never come back from there.

 

[tsujimoto74]

Coming out he was viewed as a defensive first 3rd line center. He can still play such a role.

People most certainly had more optimistic projections for him than that. I think the thought was he would be basically what Kadri is, a 25-30 goal two-way C you hate playing against.

Would've been nice if that had happened, but he's still a useful player and a guy who hustles his ass off.

 

[Yatzhee]

I think we're finally seeing where this team is, developmentally. They are very talented, and their best talent is young, but they're not a great team overall...yet. They can be pesky against the top teams in the league, but they can't go toe-to-toe. They almost got lucky again tonight with goalie pulled, but that's how those bounces go.

They need more speed with skill in the forward group. Adding Dahlin to the defense changed the trajectory of the entire organization, and, now, it seems clear that the most desperate need is better, faster forwards.

I was on record as wanting to acquire Nylander, but now that he's signed, that ship has sailed (unless they want to trade him in the summer, but even then, the price is higher for a guy who is signed long term). I'm all for making 0ne significant trade to upgrade this team, promoting from within and going bargain hunting in the fancy-stats bin beyond that. This team's most glaring need is one more forward who can drive play on the "second" line. I don't know who it is. But, this team just is not complete and I don't think there's a guy in Rochester who is going to graduate into that role any time soon. Further, as much as I like Mittelstadt, I'm not counting on him to be there by the end of the year, either.

The only forwards on the team that are "young" by NHL standards are Mittelstadt and Thompson. Those guys are on pace for 28 and 24 points, respectively. That isn't great, tbqh, but we can hope they'll grow into better point-producers. It is also possible that Dahlin becomes so good that he can literally drag the team to a Cup final in a few years. But, that isn't really a "plan." I would advocate for, right now, targeting a forward who can help make this team competitive on a nightly basis, both now and 5 years from now. THEN letting the group marinate, draft well, develop, promote from within, etc. I just don't know who the right target should be.

Or, maybe they should just go full Nashville and acquire another elite defenseman and let the forwards just sort of...shake themselves out because we've already got a good forward core. idfk. But, it feels like they need to do something.

Ehlers and Trouba for Risto, Scandella and Larsson.
We get a fast winger and a stay at home type RHD to offset the loss of Risto.

They get their "win now mode" needs addressed, RHD, LHD, 3rd line center.

If we are looking for an impact trade partner, Winnipeg is primed.

 

[Jim Bob]

Ehlers and Trouba for Risto, Scandella and Larsson.
We get a fast winger and a stay at home type RHD to offset the loss of Risto.

They get their "win now mode" needs addressed, RHD, LHD, 3rd line center.

If we are looking for an impact trade partner, Winnipeg is primed.

I have a feeling that Winnipeg laughs at that deal.

Especially given how poorly Scandella has played this season.

 

[Jim Bob]

So is this a winning year, or a building year?

The problem with your idea is that you are asking the coach forego winning now to experiment to help the GM decide what he needs to add to the roster.

But, that is rarely within the coach's job description. Coaches are judged on wins and losses.

 

[Yatzhee]

I have a feeling that Winnipeg laughs at that deal.

Especially given how poorly Scandella has played this season.

I don't.

 

[OkimLom]

I remember his first couple seasons when folks around here were talking about him as the future captain of the team...I don’t know where his game went since then but it’s never come back from there.

I remember those days as well. He also would go through a wall every game and at least showed SOME offensive skill.

 

[Dreakon13]

as for Girgs, the time to trade him was before the 2015-2016 season, after he had a strong end of the 2014-2015 season. Could have got a first plus a prospect for him then. Now, be lucky to get a 4th

Why are we trading Girgs again? I get that he's maybe not living up to his first round pedigree but he's not exactly expensive, he's a trooper and he's doing great on the 4th line. We finally have a role for him, let's just go with it.

 

[Yatzhee]

Why are we trading Girgs again? I get that he's maybe not living up to his first round pedigree but he's not exactly expensive, he's a trooper and he's doing great on the 4th line. We finally have a role for him, let's just go with it.

And that would suffice I agree.

 

[Reddawg]

Why are we trading Girgs again? I get that he's maybe not living up to his first round pedigree but he's not exactly expensive, he's a trooper and he's doing great on the 4th line. We finally have a role for him, let's just go with it.

This. Girgs and Larsson are a big reason why we've taken a step forward this year. They're great together on the 4th.

 

[dortt]

Why are we trading Girgs again? I get that he's maybe not living up to his first round pedigree but he's not exactly expensive, he's a trooper and he's doing great on the 4th line. We finally have a role for him, let's just go with it.

I said, we should have traded him before the 2015 season. Now, we're stuck with a 4th liner. Was another case of poor asset management by Murray. Was obvious once we got ROR and Eichel that he would not have the same role that he had in 2014-2015

 

[Djp]

Ehlers and Trouba for Risto, Scandella and Larsson.
We get a fast winger and a stay at home type RHD to offset the loss of Risto.

They get their "win now mode" needs addressed, RHD, LHD, 3rd line center.

If we are looking for an impact trade partner, Winnipeg is primed.

the issue is their cap next year. you are sending them $11M next year.

I think Ehlers is available but they will want picks/prospects/ELC players.

They need to remove around $5M from next years cap to be able to sign everyone. Connor and Laine are the expensive players. They have Kulkov and Little are other high salary players under contrat they likely will try to unload.

If they traded Trouba they would want cheaper players such as Pilot or Guhle for D


Ehlers+Kulikov for 1st+ Beaulieu + Nylander

 

[Dreakon13]

I said, we should have traded him before the 2015 season. Now, we're stuck with a 4th liner. Was another case of poor asset management by Murray. Was obvious once we got ROR and Eichel that he would not have the same role that he had in 2014-2015

Being "stuck" with an affordable player that's a piece of one of the most effective 4th lines in the league doesn't sound like much of a problem to me. After years of our 4th line just being a graveyard for ineffective/over the hill players on heavy contracts, this is a breath of fresh air.

I was all aboard the 'change of scenery' trade ideas for Girgs the last few years... but deep down I just wanted the team to find a role for him that worked and stick with it. I think we're finally there.