tsujimoto74
Moderator
- May 28, 2012
- 30,635
- 23,419
Still looking for them to find an upgrade on Beaulieu, Nelson externally.
Don't you want to see what Pilut could do first?
Not mutually exclusive.
What defensive lineup do want to see? Or who do you want replaced more specifically?
McCabe - Risto
Dahlin - Bogo
Scandella - Nelson
Beaulieu
What defensive lineup do want to see? Or who do you want replaced more specifically?
McCabe - Risto
Dahlin - Bogo
Scandella - Nelson
Beaulieu
Still looking for them to find an upgrade on Beaulieu, Nelson externally.
I’ve got two words for you:
Matt Hunwick
Long-term, Dahlin is the only guy who I'm attached to. Seeing Risto in an offensive deployment, non-24+ minute/night role also works, but the rest of the defense leaves some room for improvement. Bogosian's return has been a nice story, but his cache with me as a healthy every night player is limited for me. So too McCabe but more from what's between his ears, as a player who's playing better but we've seen these stretches more than once in more than one season and they're almost always straddled by play that is detrimental to his partner and the team as a whole. Scandella looks like last year's workload wore him down. Trusting Beaulieu and Nelson as anything other than filler also doesn't leave me thrilled.
If there is someone to be pried out somewhere, looking at the Kings sitting on Muzzin and Martinez for example. Ceci out of Ottawa might be another player to target if they continue their purge. Then age out some of the chaff while percolating guys up from below (Pilut first, then probably Borgen and/or Guhle).
Still looking for them to find an upgrade on Beaulieu, Nelson externally.
I don’t nexessarily disagree with you. But I think Dahlin coming in taking over as the #1 slots everyone down a bit to where they’re more comfortable.
McCabe has been up and down. But last season he was hampered with injuries. And he is 25 where he might now really be getting comfortable with his role on this team and in the league in general.
Bogosian is always a question. But he’s been solid for us whenever he does play, so I’m considering it a bonus.
Scandella is either feeling last year, playing injured, or getting old. He’s a middle to bottom pairing guy, mostly bottom.
Beaulieu & Nelson are both 7D’s for their career. That is pretty clear. But there are teams that could really use a player like Beaulieu on their back end with his skating ability, plus he does add some grit and isn’t afraid to muck it up.
Ristolainen in my opinion will be the player who benefits the most from Dahlin’s presence long term. He’ll likely be placed in a 2nd pairing role (we can already see the past 4-5 games his minutes being reduced and his play becoming less frazzled).
So out of that group I’d say we have a #1(Dahlin), a #3(Ristolainen), & a number #5(McCabe).
Bogosian when healthy is a solid #4, and between Scandella, Beaulieu & Nelson we can get decent #6 play.
Between Guhle, Pilut & Borgen, I’m hoping one of them can turn into a #4, and one of the other two can be a #6.
The main need is a #2. Whether they trade for one (Trouba), try to sign one, or develop from within (Pilut, Guhle, 2019 or 2020 1st Round picks) remains to be seen.
But overall I would say I’m ok with a good portion of what we have. Inprovements & upgrades need to be made, for sure. But we’re about half way (and maybe a bit further with the depth and upside we have in the system) to a really really good d-core in my estimation.
If we're talking long term:
Dahlin-XXXX
McCabe-Risto
Guhle-YYYY
XXXX isn't a role we can fill internally. I look to the cap issues in WPG and looking squarely at Trouba. If not him, i'm looking at every available option. That is where my assets and cap space is spent.
I certainly like Pilut's production in Rochester. I'd like to see what he can do at the NHL level, however.
Near term, I think we probably fill YYYY with Bogo and have Nelson as our 7th d-man. Borgen might be able to fill that role, eventually? Beaulieu probably isn't qualified this summer. I can't imagine us going after LHD with Guhle/Pilut doing well in Rochester. Any upgrade to Nelson probably comes via the Waiver wire or a NCAA UFA signing. Something that doesn't cost us any assets.
You don't need a number 2 - you need a player who compliment your number 1 - having Dahlin and Risto to anchor their line is fine for me - just find their partners
I expect us to let Scandella walk after next year. Beaulieu is not going to get qualified at his current pay.
Next year barring trade or free agency...
Scandella-Risto
McCabe-Dahlin
Pilut-Bogo
Nelson
.
Let Bealieu walk. Give Guhle one more year to develop then next season he is the first D callup. Maybe Samuelsson goes pro this summer, plays in Roch in 19-20 and is in the lineup in 2020 as one of the internal replacements for Bogo and Scandella.
McCabe can stay if he can be signed in the 3.5 range.
In 2020...
Dahlin-Risto
McCabe-Pilut
Guhle-Samuelsson
Not a bad D corps with internal replacements. Luckily we will have $ to use to sign or trade for D help.
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Up front we are set in terms of major pieces.
A potential 2020-2021 lineup...
Skinner-Eichel-Reinhart
Thompson-Mittelstadt-Olofsson
Sheary-ERod-Nylander
Berglund-Larsson-Girgs
That isnt counting any potential 1st round prospects we could be adding. It is very conservative to predict in 2 more years that Nylander and Olofsson make the jump.
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Pretty much Botts needs to keep the following band together...Skinner and Sheary at LW, Eichel and Mitts as the top 6 centers and Reinhart and Nylander on RW. Thompson and Olofsson as our middle 6 wingers. Again this is without predicting trades or outside help.
By 2020-2021 I expect Botts finds a way to move Okposo. He would only have 3 years left in 2020 with less $ and a higher cap hit. We will need Okposo moved when Dahlin is signed for 8/96 or 8/100. We also have to worry about a Risto extension in a year or so.
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I would offer Risto 8/50 for his next deal. Decent raise from his current salary and gives him security. Risto is only 24 and has another decade of top 4 play. RHD are extremely hard to find so Risto must be kept..I am not worried, Botts is one of the Best and smartest gms in the league and a cap wizard. He knows if he can keep the Rasmi signed long term for ~18 mil per in a few years is fair value. I also think that Risto can continue to play big minutes if he is paired with Dahlin for them. Paying the Rasmus' big $ will not hurt our D corps as much if Risto is getting 24-25 a night and Dahlin 27-28. That leaves 68 minutes for the other 4 guys. Between Pilut, Guhle, Samuelsson and whatever other D we draft the next 2 years those 4 can round out the D corps.
Wow, going over all this we have a damn good team and an even brighter future. And just wait til we get our Marchessault or Point type player... a mid or late round pick who comes out of nowhere and is a top tier talent. Would love if Olofsson develops into a 30 goal sniper and Nylander develops into a 50-60 point winger that befits a #8 overall draft pick with his elite bloodlines. If Pops and big bro are star players Alex can be somewhat like that also.
The Dahlin lottery win is such a boon and yes, he should allow them to push people into smaller but still useful roles. I'm not sure a true #2 is the guy to get, but more of what Jeff Beukeboom was to Brian Leetch (safe, strong takeout defender while Leetch roamed). I'm not convinced that it is Bogosian or McCabe because frankly they don't typically think the game in the manner of safe players even if they have the physical elements to their games. Risto we know isn't in that mold, so... shopping for someone to be a long-term partner for Dahlin instead.
And it might just be Borgen. He's mobile, but thinks defense-first. He's tough as can be and does the sort of mucking about in front of the net and along the wall to isolate his check to allow others an easier retrieval and exit. Perhaps he's the answer there, but until he's in Buffalo, the option to fill that role is open.
Guhle's struggle is real. He's gone from heavily pimped due likely to being the only defense prospect (and one with an eye-popping ability to skate) to rightly criticized for the recent downturn in his play. And not to beat the kid up, it's just his second professional season and to have struggles in the growth of his game is likely to be expected, yet they should still be looking to do better. If he rounds back into form, great. He may yet still be a season or more away though.
Pilut for his smarts and mobility should be someone who draws in sooner rather than later. I'm curious to see how his defensive game evolves and how he holds up to the size of NHL players in the relatively confined spaces of NA rinks, but there is a lot to like there.
That leaves Borgen from the Amerks trio.
While I love Jacob Bryson, he looks very much like a 3rd pair option more in the mold of Matt Grzelcyk and could be an interesting guy down the road since he can certainly think and move the game the way the current regime preaches. His play will probably dictate if they have the risk appetite to have more than one small defenseman in the lineup, but if he keeps being an all-situation horse for the Friars... things look good there.
What's your take on Laaksonen and Sammuelssons long term projections?The Dahlin lottery win is such a boon and yes, he should allow them to push people into smaller but still useful roles. I'm not sure a true #2 is the guy to get, but more of what Jeff Beukeboom was to Brian Leetch (safe, strong takeout defender while Leetch roamed). I'm not convinced that it is Bogosian or McCabe because frankly they don't typically think the game in the manner of safe players even if they have the physical elements to their games. Risto we know isn't in that mold, so... shopping for someone to be a long-term partner for Dahlin instead.
And it might just be Borgen. He's mobile, but thinks defense-first. He's tough as can be and does the sort of mucking about in front of the net and along the wall to isolate his check to allow others an easier retrieval and exit. Perhaps he's the answer there, but until he's in Buffalo, the option to fill that role is open.
Guhle's struggle is real. He's gone from heavily pimped due likely to being the only defense prospect (and one with an eye-popping ability to skate) to rightly criticized for the recent downturn in his play. And not to beat the kid up, it's just his second professional season and to have struggles in the growth of his game is likely to be expected, yet they should still be looking to do better. If he rounds back into form, great. He may yet still be a season or more away though.
Pilut for his smarts and mobility should be someone who draws in sooner rather than later. I'm curious to see how his defensive game evolves and how he holds up to the size of NHL players in the relatively confined spaces of NA rinks, but there is a lot to like there.
That leaves Borgen from the Amerks trio.
While I love Jacob Bryson, he looks very much like a 3rd pair option more in the mold of Matt Grzelcyk and could be an interesting guy down the road since he can certainly think and move the game the way the current regime preaches. His play will probably dictate if they have the risk appetite to have more than one small defenseman in the lineup, but if he keeps being an all-situation horse for the Friars... things look good there.
The Dahlin lottery win is such a boon and yes, he should allow them to push people into smaller but still useful roles. I'm not sure a true #2 is the guy to get, but more of what Jeff Beukeboom was to Brian Leetch (safe, strong takeout defender while Leetch roamed). I'm not convinced that it is Bogosian or McCabe because frankly they don't typically think the game in the manner of safe players even if they have the physical elements to their games. Risto we know isn't in that mold, so... shopping for someone to be a long-term partner for Dahlin instead.
And it might just be Borgen. He's mobile, but thinks defense-first. He's tough as can be and does the sort of mucking about in front of the net and along the wall to isolate his check to allow others an easier retrieval and exit. Perhaps he's the answer there, but until he's in Buffalo, the option to fill that role is open.
Guhle's struggle is real. He's gone from heavily pimped due likely to being the only defense prospect (and one with an eye-popping ability to skate) to rightly criticized for the recent downturn in his play. And not to beat the kid up, it's just his second professional season and to have struggles in the growth of his game is likely to be expected, yet they should still be looking to do better. If he rounds back into form, great. He may yet still be a season or more away though.
Pilut for his smarts and mobility should be someone who draws in sooner rather than later. I'm curious to see how his defensive game evolves and how he holds up to the size of NHL players in the relatively confined spaces of NA rinks, but there is a lot to like there.
That leaves Borgen from the Amerks trio.
While I love Jacob Bryson, he looks very much like a 3rd pair option more in the mold of Matt Grzelcyk and could be an interesting guy down the road since he can certainly think and move the game the way the current regime preaches. His play will probably dictate if they have the risk appetite to have more than one small defenseman in the lineup, but if he keeps being an all-situation horse for the Friars... things look good there.