Updates after games of April 20:
Outcome
|
Prob
MTL in 7 games|21.8%
NYR in 7 games|19.2%
NYR in 6 games
|
59.0%
MTL wins|21.8%
NYR wins
|
78.2%
Outcome
|
Prob
EDM in 6 games
|
45.2%
EDM in 7 games|31.2%
SJS in 7 games|23.6%
EDM wins
|
76.4%
SJS wins|23.6%
To the above question, for the three series completed, the model is slightly above average (Pittsburgh at 48.4%, Nashville at 41.3%, and Anaheim at 61.0% composites to a 50.2% overall).
Ottawa/Boston and Minnesota/St. Louis don't look particularly good.
I'd still like to know why the poster above quoted Washington/Toronto and implied that the model got it "way wrong".