There's always variance and all the players change all the time at the junior level, so you can't really say anything with any certainty just based on history alone.It doesn't make them THAT much better but Japan plays and has always played hockey better than Lithuanians, at all levels. They dominated the 2A in 2012 and have only been relegated from 1B for pulling out. If history counts for anything (and it does) you have to consider Japan to be favorites.
Lithuania seems to have a really great top 6, especially for this level. They're going to rip other teams apart. Not sure about their D, though.