2016 Draft Thread IV (June 24-25)

[major major]

Just speculation, but is it possible Puljujarvi pulled a Lindros?

Not to crap on him or anything, but is it possible that he tipped Jarmo off during interviews? That would seem to explain a sudden shift in draft strategy. Either that or his knee but I think that's minor.

Obviously Jarmo could just have PLD as high or higher. But I'm curious. I want to know what it is/was that set him apart in Jarmo's eyes.

Close to zero chance of a Lindros. We have no evidence of any "sudden shift in draft strategy" or any evidence that JP getting skipped over wasn't taken as a shock. If anything JP's comments since the draft show that he is taking it personally.

My guess is that they think PLD has better vision and hockey sense than JP. And PLD is one of the few players in this draft who are better defensively than JP.

I personally think the Bergeron v. Nash comparison makes a lot of sense. With Jarmo's approach to drafting the focus is less on obvious skill and more on adaptability and learning ability. I can't say there is any reason to doubt JP on those metrics, but PLD isn't going to be beat there.

 

[Crede777]

Close to zero chance of a Lindros. We have no evidence of any "sudden shift in draft strategy" or any evidence that JP getting skipped over wasn't taken as a shock. If anything JP's comments since the draft show that he is taking it personally.

My guess is that they think PLD has better vision and hockey sense than JP. And PLD is one of the few players in this draft who are better defensively than JP.

I personally think the Bergeron v. Nash comparison makes a lot of sense. With Jarmo's approach to drafting the focus is less on obvious skill and more on adaptability and learning ability. I can't say there is any reason to doubt JP on those metrics, but PLD isn't going to be beat there.

Maybe, but watching and reading everything on Dubois, I just don't see the game breaking skill you'd expect to see from a top-3 pick. His stats seem a bit low when compared to recent 3rd overalls. Yeah PLD has a good 200 foot game, but those are the kind of guys you take in the 2nd half of the 1st.

I do see it in Puljujarvi though.

 

[brianhatesu]

Yeah, it's really unimpressive now that you mention it. Jarmo going with Petro over Schenn and Myers despite Petro being ranked lower really didn't work out for the Blues! Jake Allen in the 2nd round? What a poor pick. Lehtera in the 3rd? Awful!

And why would anyone pick David Perron 26th overall when he was undrafted the previous year? Clearly he'll never turn into anything substantial. Drafting Rundblad, trading the prospect for another pick in the same range, and drafting Tarasenko? He gives up on prospects too early! Overrated when it comes to gauging talent.

You can not deny Jarmo's drafting expertise. He might make poor trades or negotiate bad contracts, but he's a draft wizard.

As I said the more you research it the less impressive it becomes. First, Petro was not like he went way off the board. Just from memory, I remember the draft being billed as Stamkos, Filatov, and the four defensemen. Any google searches of the rankings has him anywhere from 4 to 6th. As for the rest, I feel you should get an nhl player with your 1st round pick 90% of the time and get on 50% of the time with your second round pick. It's not like jake Allen or David Perron are big game changers. How did Marek Scharz or Shawn Belle turn out?

 

[major major]

As I said the more you research it the less impressive it becomes. First, Petro was not like he went way off the board. Just from memory, I remember the draft being billed as Stamkos, Filatov, and the four defensemen. Any google searches of the rankings has him anywhere from 4 to 6th. As for the rest, I feel you should get an nhl player with your 1st round pick 90% of the time and get on 50% of the time with your second round pick. It's not like jake Allen or David Perron are big game changers. How did Marek Scharz or Shawn Belle turn out?

"I feel you should get an nhl player with your 1st round pick 90% of the time and get on 50% of the time with your second round pick."

I just stopped right there. Why bother when you have no sense of realistic expectations.

If you want to do this right, rigorously compare the picks with all of the players taken immediately around them and re-rank them, and do it for all of the picks. Otherwise it's just blow-hard ******y.

 

[major major]

Maybe, but watching and reading everything on Dubois, I just don't see the game breaking skill you'd expect to see from a top-3 pick. Yes he had a nice increase in production when he converted to center, but I'd expect to see his production be around 30 points higher than it was to warrant getting picked where he was.

I do see it in Puljujarvi though.

99 pts in 61 games for a big 17 year old? Most years that is #3 material. Have a look, it's a bit more points per game than Huberdeau and not that far behind Mackinnon. And consider that he upped his points per game to 1.8 in the months he played center. Given his more complete game than any of those guys he'd definitely be in the #3 discussion most years.

He wasn't in the discussion early in the year because he wasn't that good. He continually improved over the last two years and would have been up there if not for Puljujarvi's WJC showing. That's really the only part of Puljujarvi's season that is head and shoulders beyond Dubois.

 

[CBJWerenski8]

99 pts in 61 games for a big 17 year old? Most years that is #3 material. Have a look, it's a bit more points per game than Huberdeau and not that far behind Mackinnon. And consider that he upped his points per game to 1.8 in the months he played center. Given his more complete game than any of those guys he'd definitely be in the #3 discussion most years.

He wasn't in the discussion early in the year because he wasn't that good. He continually improved over the last two years and would have been up there if not for Puljujarvi's WJC showing. That's really the only part of Puljujarvi's season that is head and shoulders beyond Dubois.

That and the fact Pulju did his damage against men, leading his team to the playoffs. Can't be ignored.

 

[Tulipunaruusu*]

I wouldn't take the quote to mean anything. I think it's a poor translation / taken out of context.

If you mean the Edmonton behind the scenes video the original subtitles are far away from truth. If you meant the original quote, given in Finnish it is fully available on Ilta-Sanomat's web site. That one didn't take a stance on Columbus. But the Edmonton video on the other hand...

(Weel...) (in the end) this is better better place than Columbus" was uttered.

The words of a disappointed player drafted into Edmonton.

I believe the Dubois selection was mostly decided over skillset, character, future potential and the ability to actually go and fulfill those dreams.

 

[Tulipunaruusu*]

That and the fact Pulju did his damage against men, leading his team to the playoffs. Can't be ignored.

Leading his team.



Jarmo Kekäläinen's scouting team would not have passed him if he was leader of men, taking over SM-liiga level games like Barkov junior and Laine did. Those two Kekäläinen was more than willing to draft as they had done actually made it happen in the draft year. The Young Ermine had also Sebastian Aho providing him spoonfeeding for large parts of the season.

Next you say oh but he was injured. The hell Puljujärvi was playing then if he was so badly wounded?

 

[CBJWerenski8]

Leading his team.



Jarmo Kekäläinen's scouting team would not have passed him if he was leader of men, taking over SM-liiga level games like Barkov junior and Laine did. Those two Kekäläinen was more than willing to draft as they had done actually made it happen in the draft year. The Young Ermine had also Sebastian Aho providing him spoonfeeding for large parts of the season.

Next you say oh but he was injured. The hell Puljujärvi was playing then if he was so badly wounded?

Jarmo Kekalainen's scouting team would not have passed on him if he was a center. Granted, I have not watched any Liiga games, but from everything I have read from scouting reports, Youtube videos, and 'experts' who I trust, they all disagree with you. Literally nobody else I've talked to has your opinion, and believe me, I've tried looking.

 

[niflheim]

@CBJWennberg41

PoolParty is potentially very very good player, but he isn't exceptional, he isn't game changer/ breaker like Laine and he isn't elite at least now. He must make hard job to became elite.

1/16 PoolParty stats were DZS% 18,62, NZS% 40,08, OZS% 41,30. It means that PoolParty has started only 18,62 % of his shifts with a defensive zone faceoffs. Is he more " supported " than " supporting " type player? I don't know At least low DZS% means that you need more help and pucks from your defence and teammates and accordingly these states he is only satisfactory two way player.

Don't worry, PLD is not ideal, but and PoolParty isn't perfect.

 

[Monk]

That and the fact Pulju did his damage against men, leading his team to the playoffs. Can't be ignored.

So what were his stats against men? Equally as gaudy as PLD's, I take it?

 

[Jackets16]

As I said the more you research it the less impressive it becomes. First, Petro was not like he went way off the board. Just from memory, I remember the draft being billed as Stamkos, Filatov, and the four defensemen. Any google searches of the rankings has him anywhere from 4 to 6th. As for the rest, I feel you should get an nhl player with your 1st round pick 90% of the time and get on 50% of the time with your second round pick. It's not like jake Allen or David Perron are big game changers. How did Marek Scharz or Shawn Belle turn out?

I am pretty sure those %'s are way off, but I don't know for sure. I know the numbers have been posted on other boards, and maybe ours, before.

 

[CBJx614]

Draft Success Rate '95-05

Pick - Appeared In NHL - Played 100+ Games In NHL


Top-5 - 100% - 96.3%

6-10 - 100% - 78.1%

Rest of First Round - 88.6% - 63.0%

Second Round - 65.7% - 31.1%

Third Round - 50.7% - 27.9%

Fourth Round - 36.0% - 18.7%

Fifth Round - 29.9% - 14.2%

Sixth Round - 30.0% - 14.3%

Seventh Through Ninth Rounds - 27.1% - 11.6%

 

[blahblah]

My issue is 2 part.

1) Draft the best player available. Dubois was not that player. Period. When virtually the entire league looks at you and goes "ummmmmm" you might want to take a look at what you've just done. And let's be honest....it's not like Jarmo has had a lot of success as GM so far. It's not like he's won 2 cups and then done something off script. He's had zero success and wasted a gift. Puljujarvi is the more talented player and it's pretty obvious to just about everybody.

Pet peeve #5 on my list - the liberal use of the word "period" in this context.

I will say one thing. I have found that "consensus" is often wrong. Often horribly wrong. I could list dozens of examples from just the last decade. I actually prefer independent thinkers over lemmings. If this is their guy, screw consensus. Stand on your convictions.

So you are looking for 2 Cups in 3 years of being a GM with a team that has always struggled to ice a consistently good team? Delusional. I'm not really a JK fan or an apologist, but this point is pretty nonsensical. "Hey JK follow conventional wisdom because you haven't won a Cup with a perennial bottom feeder" - laughable.

The more I read about PLD the more I can sure the alure. Time will tell who as the better career. We may find that there was actually little difference, but based on what I'm reading I don't expect PLD will be a bust. Hell we could easily see someone outside the top 10 end up with a better career over both of them.

I'll be honest, when the pick was first made I didn't hear much negative feedback by the announcers. They agreed that we went off-the-board, but they didn't seem all that concerned by it or that is was even that far out there. The were very complementary of PLD and seemed to think that he'll make a very fine addition to the team.

 

[Jackets16]

Draft Success Rate '95-05

Pick - Appeared In NHL - Played 100+ Games In NHL


Top-5 - 100% - 96.3%

6-10 - 100% - 78.1%

Rest of First Round - 88.6% - 63.0%

Second Round - 65.7% - 31.1%

Third Round - 50.7% - 27.9%

Fourth Round - 36.0% - 18.7%

Fifth Round - 29.9% - 14.2%

Sixth Round - 30.0% - 14.3%

Seventh Through Ninth Rounds - 27.1% - 11.6%

Thanks. Those numbers seem hard to believe, but you can't argue with facts.

 

[CBJx614]

Thanks. Those numbers seem hard to believe, but you can't argue with facts.

I saw another site that has success as 250+ games and that would probably drop those numbers significantly

2013 was still above average 2/3 66%

Also from the same website...

Draft grades

The Blue Jackets stunned the draft when they passed on the consensus third overall pick Jesse Puljujarvi for center Pierre-Luc Dubois. The pick is a bit of a head scratcher, as they have Sonny Milano leading the way at center in their prospect pool. Word was before the draft they would move Milano, but not going for the better player in Puljujarvi is a bit of a strange call.

What...

 

[JacketsFanWest]

It's difficult to compare junior age players on men's teams. Consider how rookies are treated on NHL teams. Some are sheltered, some are thrown into the deep end. NHL rookie stats aren't always indicative of how good the player will be.

Playing in a men's league also more readily exposes junior age players' faults. Watching a full game, you'll see them mess up which you aren't going to see very often with CHL players who are elite players and heads above nearly everyone they are playing against.

Had Gabriel Landeskog stayed in Sweden rather than coming to the OHL and continued to played for DIF, he likely would have been relegated to an extra forward position. His numbers wouldn't have been all that great, he wouldn't have been as dominate or a team leader. He probably have been a mid 1st round pick rather than 2nd overall.

I can't speak for how Pulju was being used in Finland, but here's an example from Sweden. Filip Forsberg primarily a 4th line player for a top team in the 2nd tier Swedish League Allsvenskan in his draft year. His team was fighting to get back into the Elite League and weren't going to rely on a junior age player. Robin Kovacs (drafted last year), put up better numbers in Allsvenskan because AIK decided to just toss a 17 year on their top line after injuries. If you tried to compare their stats, it would make Kovacs look like the better player or more trusted by the coaches.

Filip Forsberg would have been top 3 like Landeskog had he come over to North America where he could dominate in the CHL.

What I wonder is if watching film on Pulju and his deficiencies in SM-Liiga highlighted the problems he would have in the NHL and how Torts might not like him, while the CHL and junior footage of PLD leaves it up to the imagination how he will do in a professional league. He's a coaches' dream, so Torts will love him. That's not to say when PLD does get to the NHL, he doesn't make mistakes like all rookies do. But they are all hypothetical at this point. Pulju's are video footage to watch over and over and over again.

 

[EspenK]

Thanks. Those numbers seem hard to believe, but you can't argue with facts.

Obviously you are new here...

 

[CBJ103]

I will say one thing. I have found that "consensus" is often wrong. Often horribly wrong. I could list dozens of examples from just the last decade.

I would like to point out that at the top of this page is documented the fact that less than a year ago a large panel of hockey "experts" came to the consensus that Kerby Rychel was the 2nd best prospect in the CBJ organization.

In the future I will keep this in mind when these experts come to a consensus on anything hockey related.

 

[Tulipunaruusu*]

What I wonder is if watching film on Pulju and his deficiencies in SM-Liiga highlighted the problems he would have in the NHL and how Torts might not like him, while the CHL and junior footage of PLD leaves it up to the imagination how he will do in a professional league. He's a coaches' dream, so Torts will love him.

They are not drafting for Tortorella but for the Blue Jackets.

Every fanatic was thrilled and apparently permanently hyped when rebel general Puljujärvi was overriding head coach Jortikka's (six SM-liiga gold medals, WJC gold) playbook in the 2014 U-20 WJC tournament. That solitary effort translated into zero goals and early exit for his team. Great signs...

It is indeed a huge plus in Dubois's background that his father most likely has teached analytical approach to his play with his coaching experience. Dubois seems to have great foundation to be a great learner of the play which you have the drive for. No one can't teach the inner you.

 

[CBJWerenski8]

@CBJWennberg41

PoolParty is potentially very very good player, but he isn't exceptional, he isn't game changer/ breaker like Laine and he isn't elite at least now. He must make hard job to became elite.

1/16 PoolParty stats were DZS% 18,62, NZS% 40,08, OZS% 41,30. It means that PoolParty has started only 18,62 % of his shifts with a defensive zone faceoffs. Is he more " supported " than " supporting " type player? I don't know At least low DZS% means that you need more help and pucks from your defence and teammates and accordingly these states he is only satisfactory two way player.

Don't worry, PLD is not ideal, but and PoolParty isn't perfect.

Not saying JP is perfect. But he's absolutely a game changer, and IMO an exceptional talent.

So what were his stats against men? Equally as gaudy as PLD's, I take it?

PLD didn't play against men. He played against boys his own age. This is not a negative for him, he obviously can't help that, but it is a massive + for JP for playing so well against superior talent and more mature bodies similar to what he'll see in the NHL.

 

[Tulipunaruusu*]

This is not a negative for him, he obviously can't help that, but it is a massive + for JP for playing so well against superior talent and more mature bodies similar to what he'll see in the NHL.

You are overselling current day SM-liiga. It ain't actually impossible to go and take over games. Barkov junior carried Tappara during a lockout season. Laine went all the way to the men's national team. Mikael Granlund, the previous big name Kärpät top prospect went to HIFK and took over games finishing at 40 points in 43 regular season games. These were key players for their respective teams.

Puljujärvi enjoyed of very good environment all year long and did ok. Blue Jackets dodged a bullet. Winnipeg got your exceptional talent.

 

[JacketsDavid]

So you are looking for 2 Cups in 3 years of being a GM with a team that has always struggled to ice a consistently good team? Delusional. I'm not really a JK fan or an apologist, but this point is pretty nonsensical. "Hey JK follow conventional wisdom because you haven't won a Cup with a perennial bottom feeder" - laughable.

Um that's not the expectation.
Expectation should be after 3 seasons to see the team playing better (not the Cleveland affiliate, not any other affiliate, but the CBJ).
You can use whatever metric you want to evaluate Jarmo but they went from challenging for the playoffs 2 years ago, to getting off to a slow start and strong finish the next season to being a miserable example of a NHL franchise that had to trade their best player mid-year because they couldn't get him to play hard.
Then throw in the fact all the bad contracts and that we are nearly against the cap.

So if you're evaluating Jarmo how can you rate him even average? The NHL team is worse, we're against the cap. The only positive is Cleveland - and let's be honest they had so much talent for the playoffs because the CBJ were so bad that they sent a lot of help down.

So again after a few seasons the goal isn't winning the cup but it was hopefully improvement, and right now it's not happening. Like every other year we can talk about all the prospects, that are coming next year or the year after. But after 15 seasons reality should sink in that most of those guys don't work out.

 

[Tulipunaruusu*]

http://www.iltasanomat.fi/nhl/art-2000001208399.html

Ilta-Sanomat had another take on the Edmonton Puljujärvi Behind the Scenes video. Puljujärvi and his agent talking:

P: (Weel...) this is (after all) better place than Columbus.

P: "****, what kind of a 'game'.

A: "Connor McDavid, Hall.. what he we spoke. Do you remember what I said about that Kekäläinen to you in Croatia?

----

The Kekäläinen part is new addition to the mystery.

The second like is more likely "what kind of players" as suggested on the prospects section thread.

------ ---- ---- ---- --- --- -

Bonus content from the comments section:

Kekäläinen

"Kekäläinen old brake, with his paradigms Columbus will never make it to play-offs.."

"Keku is always Keku but Keku should at least be allowed to freely pick?"

"On a general level I have to raise my hat to Kekäläinen, incredible to which positions you can rise with those abilities."

"Already a long time ago the yellow broth rose to Kekäläinen's head."

- "He was exhibiting his muscles long before his selection as GM. First Finnish in that post but with that attitude he will blunder Finland's image and first of all himself. A geezer so arrogant might fall to the ground quickly."

"Pulju's luck that Keku is a man of the Blue Coats."

Puljujärvi

"The boy should take English lessons before going over the big pond. Horrible sounding tankero."

- "Why cannot he speak English?"

-- "Yeah, seems like his talent came to surprise to himself when he didn't figure out to study in school the one subject which would help with life behind the pond. Tells of course something of the geezer's intelligence."

"Kekäläinen's pick was indeed a surprise. But let's see how the prospects play. This Keku's pick might as well score as many or more points than Pulju. We Finns just don't know this Dupois or know the boy's skills. Scouts I believe know. I would guess that after 100 NHL games played Pulju and Dubois have similar statistics."

 

[JacketsDavid]

I would guess that after 100 NHL games played Pulju and Dubois have similar statistics."

Maybe not the best measurement (100 NHL games):

-Pretty likely one of the guys will play this season in the NHL.
-Dubois may get a small taste but he'll head back home. Maybe even for 2 years? Likely for one season though. So it likely wouldn't be until 2018-19 season until Dubois plays in his 100th NHL game.