A. Schultz flat out isn't going to continue producing at the rate he has been, I don't know why you keep saying "if he continues his current pace", he's not going to do that. He's not going to finish the year a 60 point defenseman. He's just scoring at an incredibly unsustainable rate right now. He had 6 points in his first 23 games and then followed that up with 27 points in the 23 games following that. I'm expecting him to finish around 50, meaning he puts up 17 points in the remaining 36 games or so. In following seasons, I expect him to be a 40-45 point 2nd pair guy.
Yes he did. However if you look at his usage over those 23 games, it was a LOT different then how he was (and is currently) being used.
First 23 games: 14:57 ES, 1:48 PP, 16:51 TTOI
Last 23 games: 18:14 ES, 2:47 PP, 21:08 TTOI
Do I think he'll put up 30+ points in his remaining 36 games? No. But neither do I think 20+ is unrealistic. Which puts him solidly in the 50-60 range.
B. Krug is a pretty good comparable to Schultz, but at the same time, Krug also had 3 seasons of very good offensive production (40 points, 39 points and 44 points since 2013-2014). He got $1.4 million after his 40 point season, $3.4 million after his 39 point season and $5.25 million after his 44 point season. Schultz is probably going to get something similar to Krug's 2nd contract after this year and he'll cash in as a UFA, whether that be with Pittsburgh or someone else. He'll only be making $5 million+ if he can continue to prove that it isn't just a hot streak right now and he can consistently handle top-4 minutes. The dude is less than a calendar year out of getting kicked to the curb in Edmonton. He hasn't gone from "no one has interest in him beyond a reclamation project" to "$5 million defenseman" in such a short time.
Schultz might sign something similar to Krug's 2nd extension - if you're talking about a 1 year deal (although that was also sign 3 years ago, so even then that's probably on the low end). But you're not, you're trying to suggest that he'll take that AAV and then take 3-4 years of term. That's extremely unlikely to happen.
If he plays 60 games as a top 4D getting 20+ minutes a night and puts up ~50 points in those 60 games, do you not think that that's enough consistency to show that this isn't just a "hot streak"? In that situation he will have played 3/4 of the season at a pretty high level.
You yourself have said multiple times that he's a top 4D. Guess what... top 4 RHD in today's NHL get paid, even as RFAs. And they especially get paid when you're buying UFA years, which anything longer than 1 year will do.
C. All of the guys you listed outside of Krug are clearly much better players than Schultz is. Schultz right now is a middle pair defenseman riding an incredible hot streak. If he wants over $5 million, I'd just let someone else pay him that much.
I think to an extent that's debateable. But my point isn't so much "if he wants over 5m" as much as it's "he's going to want more than 3.5-4m". And if he puts up 50+ points, he's going to deserve it. Could he sign a 3.5-4.25m contract? Absolutely. But it's probably going to be a pretty short one (aka 1, maybe 2 years if we're lucky). If you want term, you'd better be prepared to pay more than 4m.