2015 Draft thread. McEichel part 5

[Revelate]

Is there a consensus that Marner can play center in the NHL?


MOD EDIT: continued from here http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showthread.php?t=1824219&page=41

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[26CornerBlitz]

Top prospect Marner not letting size hold him back

London Knights forward Mitchell Marner said he believes anything is possible if you're willing to put in the work.

Even for a 5-foot-11, 155-pound right-shot center who might be overlooked at the 2015 NHL Draft because of his size.

"The NHL right now is at a point where size doesn't matter; it's all about the skill and passion," Marner said. "I think if you go out there and show that you're willing to go every shift, willing to prove a point and prove that you can hold your own, that skills are more important than the size."

Marner has made a believer out of a lot of scouts as well as a former teammate now starring in the NHL.

"He has tremendous offensive talent; I've been keeping tabs on him to see how he's doing," Vancouver Canucks center Bo Horvat said. "His offensive skill and shiftiness, ability to make plays, are what stood out to me when I played with him [in 2013-14]. He's having a heck of a year and hopefully some team will get lucky and pick him up."

 

[Paxon]

Is there a consensus that Marner can play center in the NHL?


MOD EDIT: continued from here http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showthread.php?t=1824219&page=41

There's definitely not a consensus that he can play center in the NHL. I'd project him as a winger though I wouldn't rule out center. I'd expect him to stay at RW where he's been.

 

[Zman5778]

http://insider.espn.go.com/blog/nhl-draft/post/_/id/744/marner-strome-should-go-before-hanifin

In 2015, after the top two picks go Connor McDavid and Jack Eichel, will the team picking third want forwards Dylan Strome or Mitch Marner, or will it grab top defensive prospect Noah Hanifin? The evidence favors the former.

On talent alone, Boston College blueliner Hanifin is either even with or a little above star OHL forwards Strome and Marner.

But breaking the tie over whom the No. 3 team should pick comes down to the positional variable, and there's evidence to suggest that grabbing a player who will be a top-line forward is a wiser investment than getting that top-pairing D-man.


In the 2014 edition of Rob Vollman’s Hockey Abstract, Tom Awad unveiled one of the most important pieces of research in hockey analytics in the past few years, titled “What Makes Good Players Good?†As you might expect, it asked a simple yet extremely important question: Who are the "good" players, and what attributes make them "good"?

One of Awad’s conclusions -- that forwards are much more important than defensemen -- was initially jarring:

“Results at even strength are driven primarily by forwards. This is not to say that offensive play is more important than defensive play; simply that, in the NHL, the players who contribute the most to outscoring the opposition at even strength are first-line forwards, not top-pair defensemen.â€

some would argue that Hanifin should be in a tier above the forwards, even after what we have learned about the positional value. However, after balancing all the listed factors above, I am not convinced that Hanifin has had a more impressive track record than Strome or Marner, even given the great teammates they’ve had.Strome and Marner are potential star forwards with a decent chance to be top-line players. \

Even though Hanifin could be a No. 1 defender, maybe even a top-10 D-man in the league, the upside does not exceed the alternative options, especially when you consider the rate at which defensemen bust relative to forwards. Lower ceiling, lower floor, in other words. For that reason, Strome or Marner is a better choice.

LOTS and LOTS of really good stuff in this article behind a paywall. I posted just a few snips of some of the most fascinating stuff.

 

[1972]

That's basically what I have been wanting to say, when is the last time we have seen a player with the pedigree of Dylan Strome not become at the very least an adequate first line center? If you want a big offensive center the only place you get one is the top of the draft, if you want a top pairing D man they can be found outside of the super high picks. We already have a glut of young talented Dman, is one more really going to move the needle for then adding another big time offensive talent up front? I don't think so.

 

[Jame]

There's definitely not a consensus that he can play center in the NHL. I'd project him as a winger though I wouldn't rule out center. I'd expect him to stay at RW where he's been.

I agree.

for all the fear of missing out on McEichel... Marner is the closest thing to Pat Kane since Pat Kane.

 

[BakedBuffalo]

I like Hanifin, but if we do pick third, I think we should consider Strome and Marner as well. Not sure what Murray is thinking if we land in that 3rd spot.

 

[Jame]

That's basically what I have been wanting to say, when is the last time we have seen a player with the pedigree of Dylan Strome not become at the very least an adequate first line center? If you want a big offensive center the only place you get one is the top of the draft, if you want a top pairing D man they can be found outside of the super high picks. We already have a glut of young talented Dman, is one more really going to move the needle for then adding another big time offensive talent up front? I don't think so.

i agree.

if we draw the bad luck card... im taking Marner or Strome over Hanifin.

 

[Montag DP]

Picking third will definitely result in some much more interesting discussion about who to take. Between Hanifin, Strome, and Marner, I am torn on who I would want.

 

[Zman5778]

i agree.

if we draw the bad luck card... im taking Marner or Strome over Hanifin.

If Marner could easily project to him being a center, I'd take him over Strome in a heartbeat.

I worry about having both of our top 2 centers being slower afoot. But then again, would a 1-2 punch of Thornton/Bergeron REALLY be that much of a detriment to a team????

 

[Der Jaeger]

If Marner could easily project to him being a center, I'd take him over Strome in a heartbeat.

I worry about having both of our top 2 centers being slower afoot. But then again, would a 1-2 punch of Thornton/Bergeron REALLY be that much of a detriment to a team????

I'd take Marner either way. Reinhart, Girgensons, Larsson, and Grigorenko can compete for center spots.

 

[Jame]

Picking third will definitely result in some much more interesting discussion about who to take. Between Hanifin, Strome, and Marner, I am torn on who I would want.

Normally I would lean heavily towards the natural center or the 2 way defensemen... but I love Marner. I generally lean away from smallish, speedY, scoring wingers... but Marner is on that elite level. that rare level.


Kane-Reinhart-Marner... in terms of a combination of skills, it might be the perfect #1 line. Speed, Power, IQ + elite offensive talent... yikes

losing out on McEichel wouldn't be the end of the world.

 

[BakedBuffalo]

Picking third will definitely result in some much more interesting discussion about who to take. Between Hanifin, Strome, and Marner, I am torn on who I would want.

I think Hanifin is the "safest" pick. I view him similarly to Sam Reinhart in the respect that they are highly intelligent players who know where to be. Players that smart are nearly a lock for the NHL. The question then becomes, however, what is that players upside? and I think that's why Hanifin is slipping on some lists. He is very consistent, but some people are thinking he is a more what you see is what you get, where as Werenski or Provorov have a higher ceiling, and more to offer down the road.

On the flipside, I think Marner has the highest upside. He's an incredible offensive talent, and his ceiling can Patrick Kane-like. But he is also more likely to be a winger in the NHL, which pushes Strome into the conversation, because he is the more prototypical centerman (an excellent playmaker), which has higher value than wingers. So the question is what is the talent disparity, and which position will help the franchise the most.

For me, it's between Hanifin and Marner. The decision is largely dependent upon just how good Sabres management thinks Hanifin is, and whether that talent disparity is enough to justify taking him over a forward, a more important organizational need currently. Reinhart feeding Marner does sounds pretty awesome though.

 

[Montag DP]

Normally I would lean heavily towards the natural center or the 2 way defensemen... but I love Marner. I generally lean away from smallish, speedY, scoring wingers... but Marner is on that elite level. that rare level.


Kane-Reinhart-Marner... in terms of a combination of skills, it might be the perfect #1 line. Speed, Power, IQ + elite offensive talent... yikes

losing out on McEichel wouldn't be the end of the world.

So if his ceiling is P. Kane, what's his floor? Ennis? I like him too from the little I've seen of him, but if he's really 155, the size could be a pretty big risk, at least, relative to how much risk there usually is for a top 5 pick.

 

[Der Jaeger]

Normally I would lean heavily towards the natural center or the 2 way defensemen... but I love Marner. I generally lean away from smallish, speedY, scoring wingers... but Marner is on that elite level. that rare level.


Kane-Reinhart-Marner... in terms of a combination of skills, it might be the perfect #1 line. Speed, Power, IQ + elite offensive talent... yikes

losing out on McEichel wouldn't be the end of the world.

Speaking well into the future, here's how I'd line them up:

Kane - Reinhart - Fasching. Size and speed on both wings for Reinhart.
Foligno - Girgensons - Marner. Bickell - Toews - Kane (lite-ish)
xxx - Larsson - Ennis.

 

[ZeroPT*]

Dylan Strome is awesome too. Huge offensive potential. Amazing hands, passing, vision, all better than Reinhart, which is saying a lot. The one thing that bugs me is his skating. And it's not just foot speed. It's his whole skating. It's just ugly to watch.
His intelligence is undeniable. His pure skill is amazing. Marner is also basically a pat Kane clone. His hands are amazing and he's very skilled.

Losing out on McEichel is the worst possible out come and I feel like crying whenever I even think about it. That said there is so much elite talent at the top end of this draft class. I don't doubt that the 4 forwards most have in their top 5 will all be considered elite offensive players. Both Marner and Strome will be flirting with consistent PPG.

 

[sabrebuild]

Marner is excellent and I like Strome.

But Hanifin really impresses me. Outside of not having a cannon from the point he is elite at so many skills that I see elite number one d man written all over him.

I'd take him and have an elite defense and trust that the forwards I have can be supplemented with my other assets.

Having one of Risto or Hanifin on the ice at all times,,, makes me more confident that the defense gets elite. And if that is how things turned out I'm trading for ROR and overpaying if I need too.

 

[joshjull]

So if his ceiling is P. Kane, what's his floor? Ennis? I like him too from the little I've seen of him, but if he's really 155, the size could be a pretty big risk.

I believe he is close to 170 now.

 

[Jame]

So if his ceiling is P. Kane, what's his floor? Ennis? I like him too from the little I've seen of him, but if he's really 155, the size could be a pretty big risk.

he doesn't look 155 to me...

 

[joshjull]

Normally I would lean heavily towards the natural center or the 2 way defensemen... but I love Marner. I generally lean away from smallish, speedY, scoring wingers... but Marner is on that elite level. that rare level.


Kane-Reinhart-Marner... in terms of a combination of skills, it might be the perfect #1 line. Speed, Power, IQ + elite offensive talent... yikes

losing out on McEichel wouldn't be the end of the world.

The thing that impresses me the most with Marner is what he can do at speed while in traffic. Just an incredible ability to process what's around him and quickly make something happen.

 

[Montag DP]

he doesn't look 155 to me...

Okay, I don't know, obviously. I keep hearing people floating different numbers around, but some are probably exaggerating how small he really is.

 

[joshjull]

Okay, I don't know obviously. I keep hearing people floating different numbers around, but some are probably exaggerating how small he really is.

I think that 155 comes from when he first started in juniors.

 

[ZeroPT*]

another thing about Marner is his two way play. Everything he does is so quick. I remember watching a game of his during our win streak in 2014, he forced a turnover in the neutral zone, the puck went back in behind the net and he forced another turnover before dishing it to his linemate for a scoring chance. It was a one man forecheck and he created 2 turnovers, one of which was behind the goal line.

It was an incredible display of tenacity and skill. What Marner has become is what I thought Konecny was last year. So chalk me up as a huge fan.

 

[Montag DP]

I think that 155 comes from when he first started in juniors.

Ah, that's probably so.

Taking another angle, who do we think Murray would actually take at 3? Marner doesn't strike me as Murray's type of player.

 

[1972]

Ah, that's probably so.

Taking another angle, who do we think Murray would actually take at 3? Marner doesn't strike me as Murray's type of player.

I don't know how a GM in today's low scoring era wouldn't want a highly offensive dynamo.