OT: 2015 Draft picks updates - II

[GloryDaze4877]

I appreciate the time and effort, but I'm not going to keep quoting your novella

A couple of points:

1) I like stats, and I'm familiar with some of the metrics you are talking about, but that stuff isn't the end all/be all for me. I like to look at the individual player and gauge it that way. Less effective? Probably. Also, way less antiseptic.

2) DeBrusk being drafted 15th and ending up a 4th line player is not what I would be looking for out of the draft. It happens, but I would not be ok with it by any stretch. Top 15 draft picks should be Top 6 F's (Top 9 at the least) or Top 4 Dmen.

 

[tremha]

What a draft.

what if 13. 14, 15 were Barzal, Chabot, and White?

Having Chabot and McAvoy in the system would have been sweet.

 

[WhalerTurnedBruin55]

I appreciate the time and effort, but I'm not going to keep quoting your novella

A couple of points:

1) I like stats, and I'm familiar with some of the metrics you are talking about, but that stuff isn't the end all/be all for me. I like to look at the individual player and gauge it that way. Less effective? Probably. Also, way less antiseptic.

2) DeBrusk being drafted 15th and ending up a 4th line player is not what I would be looking for out of the draft. It happens, but I would not be ok with it by any stretch. Top 15 draft picks should be Top 6 F's (Top 9 at the least) or Top 4 Dmen.

Those 3 picks are going to be haunted by players chosen after them, and the players traded to acquire some of those picks.

That draft specifically, I'm going to agree. Top 6 F or Top 4 D out of the 3 1st rounders.

Historically speaking though... outside of the top 10, if you can get a contributing member to the team, it's better than not panning out at all. It's always the guys you missed out on that hurt the most. There is a big mix of talent in the #14 slot for the past 15 years. The books out on a lot of the recent ones, including Jake Debrusk and Charlie McAvoy

14th overall's of recent:
2016: Charlie McAvoy
2015: Jake Debrusk
2014: Julius Honka
2013: Alex Wennberg
2012: Zemgus Girgensons
2011: Jamie Oleksiak
2010: Jaden Schwartz
2009: Dimitry Kulikov
2008: Zach Boychuk
2007: Kevin Shattenkirk
2006: Michael Grabner
2005: Sasha Pokulok
2004: Devan Dubnyk
2003: Brent Seabrook
2002: Chris Higgins

 

[Estlin]

Keep bringing the truth, Fonz. Best poster here. Let the others clutch their lottery tickets...I love your analytical approach.

Indeed. I love reading your posts. You back up what you say with facts. Although seeing Debrusk as eventually ending up a fourth-line winger for the Bruins or elsewhere who plays many seasons in the NHL is not the end of the world, given that he was drafted 14th overall in one of the deepest drafts in recent memory, it would appear that selecting him was a mistake—especially when someone like Connor (as you show) is outproducing him and the likes of Konecny and Aho, who were all drafted below Debrusk, are already in the NHL.

 

[Jean_Jacket41]

what if 13. 14, 15 were Barzal, Chabot, and White?

Having Chabot and McAvoy in the system would have been sweet.

I don't care with what if.

What if another team had taken Carlo before the Bruins? It goes both ways.

In the end, I'm very happy with the prospects the Bruins pilled on the past few years. Lot's to like and Frederic will soon serve plenty of crows!

 

[Over the volcano]

Kelly played his 20 year old season in the OHL. He put up 6 points in 31 games as a 21 year old rookie in the AHL. So Jake is significantly ahead of where Kelly was at the same age in raw production. Kelly had better primary point production throughout his career, a better goals:assist ratio and much more grit. Those 3 things, along with high character and leadership skills helped Kelly become a bit of an outlier himself. I think Jake's smarts along with his own strong character and leadership skills give him some valuable intangibles as well. I think he will be a valuable player on an NHL team. I'm just not sold on him as a scoring winger.

Love reading your stuff Fonz - Always thought DeBrusk had a + shot, do you see him lacking the offensive instincts or is it something else.

Couple games I saw in Providence he was a hard worker along the walls and in front of the net, and then seemingly out of nowhere he would release a laser. Thought it was a lack of quickness/speed that was holding him back more than anything- he never really got separation from defenders.

 

[Beesfan]

I have no problem with the way DeBrusk is developing. I think he is on track if not ahead of where most scouts would have pegged him to be back on draft day. The only issue I have is, as may before have stated, we reached for him at 14 when there was better talent available. Even if we had written off Barzal and Connor for style/character issues, we should have been picking from Konecny, White and Boeser.

 

[Fonzerelli]

I have no problem with the way DeBrusk is developing. I think he is on track if not ahead of where most scouts would have pegged him to be back on draft day. The only issue I have is, as may before have stated, we reached for him at 14 when there was better talent available. Even if we had written off Barzal and Connor for style/character issues, we should have been picking from Konecny, White and Boeser.

I think you are right about this. But most scouts that I know out here in WHL territory, had Jake pegged to be a 3rd line defensive winger, who adds some scoring depth. They also had his draft range pegged closer to mid-second than mid-first.

So he is close to being on track to where most scouts pegged him to be. It's the unrealistic expectations you see posted on this board that I fear he is failing to live up to.

I don't think those expectations are fair to him, and while still hoping for the best, perhaps it's time we re-adjusted those expectations and appreciate him for the player he is instead of the player we want him to be.

 

[Juneau]

Chris Kelly was a very good 3rd liner for the majority of his NHL career, even in 2011, as he played on the best team in his career, he was a very good 3rd liner. I'm not buying this 4th liner stuff.

 

[Fonzerelli]

Love reading your stuff Fonz - Always thought DeBrusk had a + shot, do you see him lacking the offensive instincts or is it something else.

I don't think he lacks offensive instincts, I just don't see it as a dominant trait. He's a 200 foot player, with decent instincts in all 3 zones, but not elite in any zone. His shot was really good in Junior. I wouldn't call it elite, but it was very good. DeBrusk is more like a Jack of all trades, but I wouldn't say he's a master of any one. Most guys who make it through as impact players in the NHL have dominant traits.

 

[Beesfan]

I think you are right about this. But most scouts that I know out here in WHL territory, had Jake pegged to be a 3rd line defensive winger, who adds some scoring depth. They also had his draft range pegged closer to mid-second than mid-first.

So he is close to being on track to where most scouts pegged him to be. It's the unrealistic expectations you see posted on this board that I fear he is failing to live up to.

I don't think those expectations are fair to him, and while still hoping for the best, perhaps it's time we re-adjusted those expectations and appreciate him for the player he is instead of the player we want him to be.

Ironically, this is exactly that we need right now. We can ice two elite forward lines and a strong fourth line. We are missing the rock solid two-way third line that we used to have with Peverley and Kelly.

Honestly, I wouldn't have had a problem with DeBrusk even at 20. I have a problem with them taking him over players that are similar in style but just better (Konecny/White).

 

[Estlin]

I have no problem with the way DeBrusk is developing. I think he is on track if not ahead of where most scouts would have pegged him to be back on draft day. The only issue I have is, as may before have stated, we reached for him at 14 when there was better talent available. Even if we had written off Barzal and Connor for style/character issues, we should have been picking from Konecny, White and Boeser.

This is the crux of the matter. You can include Aho in the list of players that Boston passed on in favor of Debrusk.

 

[Sharp Shooting Neely]

I have no problem with the way DeBrusk is developing. I think he is on track if not ahead of where most scouts would have pegged him to be back on draft day. The only issue I have is, as may before have stated, we reached for him at 14 when there was better talent available. Even if we had written off Barzal and Connor for style/character issues, we should have been picking from Konecny, White and Boeser.

Rushing rookies into the bigs is not always in their best interest long term. Some have success in the short term but fail to sustain it. Dyan Larkin comes to mind and he was drafted 15th. For every player like Koneckny and Marner who break out of the gate like this year above expections there are Larkin and DuClaire types who struggle down the road. Not at all worried with DeBrusk's play or when/how he finds his way to the big club. Also not concerned with the role he may assume. Each player has a role and as long as he performed well in that role it will benefit the teams overall performance. Every players contribution is important in reaching those end goals.

 

[Absurdity]

Kirk on JFK and other prospects:

 

[SPLBRUIN]

Kirk on JFK and other prospects:

Very interesting news about JFK, I wonder if the B's would insert him into the lineup or send him to Providence first.

 

[ashnathan]

Very interesting news about JFK, I wonder if the B's would insert him into the lineup or send him to Providence first.

Definitely Providence. No way they're gonna thrust him into 3rd line C straight off the bat.

 

[bp13]

Very interesting news about JFK, I wonder if the B's would insert him into the lineup or send him to Providence first.

Well their season is likely ending early April. I'd love it if he or McAvoy were good enough to jump right in, but that seems like a lot to expect right? It's basically the last week of the regular season.

 

[Jean_Jacket41]

Very interesting news about JFK, I wonder if the B's would insert him into the lineup or send him to Providence first.

Either way, he'll learn valuable playoffs experience out of the bat.

Start him as the 4th line C next year and let him climb the lineup in time like Marchand and Bergy did.

Bergy
Krejci
Spooner
JFK

Looks really good to me down the middle for next year.

The year after you trade Spooner for a W/D and graduate Frederic as the 4th line C and go with:

Bergy
Krejci
JFK
Frederic

This looks like a new 09-14 stretch is upon us. Lots of ELC stepping in the next few years to surround the near 30y core of Bergy-Krejci-Marchand-Backes-Rask.

That will free some Cap space to add a couple low-term help for the middle-6 F and mid-pairing D if needed or make adds each deadline.

It's a good time to be a Bruins fan.

Will these next 5 years be better than the 09-14 run?

 

[pisele]

CHL to AHL production is all relative. Comparing Jake to other '96 born first rounders, his .58 ppg in the AHL ranks 26th out of 29. In fact, many younger players and picks from lower rounds are also producing more.

.58 ppg is NOT an encouraging number if you are projecting Jake as a scoring winger in the NHL. Especially consdering he only has 8 ES goals this year and goals in general have been tugh for him to come by. But if you appreciate his other qualities and can envision him in more of a 4th line / role player type scenario, then his relatively low AHL production is nothing to be concerned about.

You would be very hard pressed to name a top NHL scoring winger who produced less than .6 ppg as a 20 year old AHL rookie in the last 12 years. There are a few .5 ppg NHL type guys. Michael Grabner, Jaden Schwartz, Mikael Backlund. Brendan Gallagher is probably the best of the bunch. All those guys had a common denominator, which is common with top transitioning players in both junior and the AHL, in that their goal:assist ratio was 1:1 or very near 1:1. They were primarily goal scorers. And in Gallaghers case he had the good PIM's and pest nature that gave him other intangibles. So there's a few for sure, but mostly it's a long list of guys who never made it, mixed in with bottom 6ers. Not to say Jake couldn't be an exception as well, but he'd have to be a bit of an outlier. As I said, I'd like to see him toughen up a bit and pot a few more goals.

As far as Senyshyn goes, a 52 point season (or more) would be excellent (assuming he gets top 6 opportunities). That puts him in the .7 ppg, which is more indicative of a top 9 scoring winger than where Jake is. DeBrusk's .58 ppg currently projects closer to 40 points than 50, and successful cohorts in that range are fewer and farther between. In fact, considering Senyshyn's goal:assist ratio, (along with his elite speed), even a 42 point season for him would be encouraging, but Jake doesn't have elite speed, hands or agility, is struggling to produce ES goals and 1/3 of his points aren't primary. There are red flags as far as Jake being a scoring winger in the NHL.

DeBrusk's totals if you break down the season a bit more:

First 20 Games: 3G 6A 9 pts. (.45/GM)
Next 39 Games 10G 15A 25 pts. (.64/GM)

He went on a 11 game scoreless (goals) streak in January and February. Was he injured? Who knows. The point is that his stats have trended up since his first 20 games adjusting to Providence.

Fonz, I appreciate the analytics you do here. Nice work. I think we know that DeBrusk is no Pastrnak, that is for sure. He is not projecting as a 1st line Winger. Not convinced he is a 4th line guy though. Could be a 3rd line secondary scorer. His upside might be a 2nd line Winger? He is listed at 6'0" and 185 lbs. He certainly has some developing to do and he needs to get stronger to play in the NHL. He is young and needs time.

For the naysayers, remember the Bruins picked him because they needed Wingers and not more Centers.

 

[Estlin]

DeBrusk's totals if you break down the season a bit more:

First 20 Games: 3G 6A 9 pts. (.45/GM)
Next 39 Games 10G 15A 25 pts. (.64/GM)

He went on a 11 game scoreless (goals) streak in January and February. Was he injured? Who knows. The point is that his stats have trended up since his first 20 games adjusting to Providence.

Fonz, I appreciate the analytics you do here. Nice work. I think we know that DeBrusk is no Pastrnak, that is for sure. He is not projecting as a 1st line Winger. Not convinced he is a 4th line guy though. Could be a 3rd line secondary scorer. His upside might be a 2nd line Winger? He is listed at 6'0" and 185 lbs. He certainly has some developing to do and he needs to get stronger to play in the NHL. He is young and needs time.

For the naysayers, remember the Bruins picked him because they needed Wingers and not more Centers.

Then why not go with such wingers as Connor, Konecny, Aho, White or Boeser, for example?

 

[DKH]

Then why not go with such wingers as Connor, Konecny, Aho, White or Boeser, for example?

They showed a lot of interest in White and if they had 4 in a row they probably take him

I have a Providence mini plan and I watch DeBrusk and he freaking looks like he has NHL skills

I'm going from 15-18 this year to 25-30 next then up for good

Put me down he makes it and top 9

I'm o such a roll these days it bodes well for DeBrusk- and I think it all started back in the summer when I kept telling the posters here they were nuts for wanting to deal Pastrnak for Trouba and I haven't looked back

Don Sweeney can do no wrong these days doesn't hurt

 

[Alberta_OReilly_Fan]

Then why not go with such wingers as Connor, Konecny, Aho, White or Boeser, for example?

it takes years to analyze a draft... and then you find out who is wrong

in any given year theres at least 10 kids who are cant miss the year after their draft... the next year... the next year... maybe the next year too

i mean look at ryan nugent hopkins here in edmonton. a first overall. for several years oiler fans were calling him a franchise player. he even got a 6 mill contract from his gm... and now?

hes basically an undersized 40-50 point playmaking center that is weak on faceoffs. its hard to say he is much better than ryan spooner

getting upset over picks in the first few years is really akin to throwing darts

 

[DKH]

it takes years to analyze a draft... and then you find out who is wrong

in any given year theres at least 10 kids who are cant miss the year after their draft... the next year... the next year... maybe the next year too

i mean look at ryan nugent hopkins here in edmonton. a first overall. for several years oiler fans were calling him a franchise player. he even got a 6 mill contract from his gm... and now?

hes basically an undersized 40-50 point playmaking center that is weak on faceoffs. its hard to say he is much better than ryan spooner

getting upset over picks in the first few years is really akin to throwing darts

Bruins 2006 draft should be on a billboard outside Hockey HOF

Kessel Lucic Marchand all in top 7 in goals

 

[BNHL]

Zboril 50-9-31-40

DeBrusk 65-14-28-42

Senyshyn . 59-42-23-65

Carlo . 76-6-9-15

JFK 39-14-19-33

Lauzon 39-5-23-28

Gabrielle . 61-35-29-64

Hughes . 36-7-25-32

Becker 45-15-11-26

 

[Jean_Jacket41]

Zboril 50-9-31-40

DeBrusk 65-14-28-42

Senyshyn . 59-42-23-65

Carlo . 76-6-9-15

JFK 39-14-19-33

Lauzon 39-5-23-28

Gabrielle . 61-35-29-64

Hughes . 36-7-25-32

Becker 45-15-11-26

What a great draft.