2015-2016 Minnesota Wild Discussion III
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tomgilbertfan
#WhyBother
- Aug 5, 2011
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tomgilbertfan
#WhyBother
There was talk about HERO charts in the Dumba thread so here's all our defensemen Hero charts in one image.
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Spurgeon
Registered User
I think this is the right move, Dubnyk was hot when he got hurt. Don't want to give him too much time off, hoping he picks up right where he left off. Good thing is that we can now have trust in Kuemper & Kuemper probably has trust in himself.
There was talk about HERO charts in the Dumba thread so here's all our defensemen Hero charts in one image.
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Spurgeon's Hero Chart is probably my favorite go-to statistic. We're lucky to have him and I know that Fletcher also believes that he is an incredibly valuable asset to this team.
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GuerinUp
Registered User
There was talk about HERO charts in the Dumba thread so here's all our defensemen Hero charts in one image.
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NO MORE ARGUING AGAINST TRADING BRODIN
Look at the stats per game and you get the real story.
GF/GP: 2.72 (9th, 4th in west)
GA/GP: 2.34 (8th, 2nd in west)
Having a top 10 offense and defense will go a long way.
ThatGuy22
Registered User
- Oct 11, 2011
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There was talk about HERO charts in the Dumba thread so here's all our defensemen Hero charts in one image.
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I'm not going to lie. My pants get tight whenever I look at Spurgeons.
GuerinUp
Registered User
HAHAHAHAHA anyone else notice Scuderi got traded to the hawks for daley?
Playoff woes keep getting easier to beat.
Playoff woes keep getting easier to beat.
gwh
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- Mar 4, 2013
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That chart is real suspicious in in all directions. Suter is a 3rd liner in scoring yet TOP 9 in whole NHL.
Dumba has better possession stats that Brodin, yet the games look completely different.
This whole chart is garbage. Literally only conclusion to make is that Prosser is 3rd pair level player for this team. Whoopidoo.
Dumba has better possession stats that Brodin, yet the games look completely different.
This whole chart is garbage. Literally only conclusion to make is that Prosser is 3rd pair level player for this team. Whoopidoo.
Spurgeon
Registered User
tomgilbertfan
#WhyBother
Also only looks at 5 on 5, and only counts primary assists. Suter has 8 EV assists, 6 of them primary assists.
Not perfect but not garbage. Pretty hard to have a quantification that can work for both low TOI guys and the extreme outliers like Suter.
gwh
Registered User
- Mar 4, 2013
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Nothing against anybody, I d rather keep the whole D since it s fantastic.
However, the chart seems to value Spurgeon > Suter and Dumba > Brodin. Both of these are just flat out wrong conclusions. I am a stats man to the bone, but I think there is something missing in here that is causing the distortion.
Also, we have one top pair D (Spurgeon) and the rest hang in the 2nd-3rd pair range. Yet Wild D has been one of the really good NHL blue lines for couple last years...
No way. Hero chart is good for valuing forwards. D man valuation needs better metrics.
tomgilbertfan
#WhyBother
Nothing against anybody, I d rather keep the whole D since it s fantastic.
However, the chart seems to value Spurgeon > Suter and Dumba > Brodin. Both of these are just flat out wrong conclusions. I am a stats man to the bone, but I think there is something missing in here that is causing the distortion.
Also, we have one top pair D (Spurgeon) and the rest hang in the 2nd-3rd pair range. Yet Wild D has been one of the really good NHL blue lines for couple last years...
Hero chart is good for valuing forwards. D man valuation needs better metrics.
Suter is the only outlier really that I see, and your conclusions on the rest are different from mine.
Spurgeon is valued as being a top-pairing offensive guy, and top-4 guy defensively.
Scandella is valued as a top-pairing goal-scoring D, and is borderline top-pairing defenseman possession wise.
Brodin is valued as a top-pairing shut-down defender who may not generate chances on the offensive side but gives up almost no chances defensively.
Dumba is a top-scoring defenseman with bottom-pairing assists and mid-pairing possession with an extremely offensive role and very little TOI.
Based on that it's Spurgeon>Scandella>Brodin>Dumba, and I don't see how that's far from the truth.
gwh
Registered User
- Mar 4, 2013
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How I am looking at this is the location of the blue lines on the categories.
Like Brodin's Corsi % (shots for / Shots against) is 3rd pair level. Dumba is 1st pair.
Dumba > Brodin possession. Yea, never. The difference is zone start rate, Dumba being sheltered and Brodin being shutdown.
Yet Dumba ends being ahead on possession metric. That does not reflect reality, so the possession metric doesnt reflect reality for any of the cases.
That leaves scoring per 60 and time on ice % as the valid metrics. Well, that s nothing so the chart has no use.
D man metrics:
0. Scoring metrics from the Hero chart.
1. Shot suppression stats
2. Shot totals from different zones on the D zone.
3. Takeways/giveaways
4. High danger scoring chances against per 60.
5. Fenwick % adjusted with zone start rates.
6. Opening pass success rate.
Victorious Secret
2024 Lottery Winner
Easier for Dumba to score and get shots to support that corsi when he gets more O-zone starts percentage wise than any other defensemen. (36.6% vs 26.5%)
DANOZ28
Registered User
now that the wild are finally playing what i consider good team hockey im looking at how we get to 106 points i predicted. with 52 games remaining we could go 28-14-10 adding 66 points. i think thats doable. GO WILD!
Weren't you really frustrated and negative on this team literally two games ago? And now we're going to get 106 points three days later?
Amazing what a couple of really good or really bad games can do to a fanbase (in any sport).
DANOZ28
Registered User
isnt there a monster difference in the way the team is playing these last 2 games? dont you think somebody lit a fire and woke the team up? i was extremely upset at how this team was playing even if they were adding a few points here & there. ps kuemper stepped up and played GREAT when doobs got injured, i doubt any of us thought that would happen especially the posters who said lets put him on waivers! those are the people you should be laughing at.
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Absolutely. But two games is a small sample size. We'll play more games like the last two and more like the mediocre games before that. It's a long season, so there's no reason to believe we'll be this good all year. Similarly to how we wouldn't be as bad as the games before. Easy to overreact here.
DANOZ28
Registered User
its how we played not who we played. dont you think that was the kind of effort we saw last year when we went on that incredible run?
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