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Speculation: 2013 Offseason Thread Part VI: Buyout Season

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I'd like to repost my cap scenario post from the former thread as it ended up just at the end:

I've looked at future cap scenarios and we honestly need Stepan and McD to sign long term deals in the 5.5M region to have any chance of keeping this core together in the long run. And that is while getting contributions from Kreider/Miller/Lindberg/Fasth on their cheap ELC's and 2nd contracts.

These guys need new contracts starting 2014-15:

Lundqvist
Biron
Callahan
Brassard (Arb. RFA)
Boyle
Kreider (Non-arb? RFA)
Pyatt (Let go)
Powe (Let go)
Asham (Let go)
Girardi
Del Zotto (Arb. RFA)
Strålman
Moore (Non-arb? RFA)

The non-arb RFA get cheap bridge deals (Kreider 2x1.2M, Moore 2x1.3M)

If Brassard continues his strong form and scores 60-70p hell get ~4x5M. Points cost $$$.

Lundqvist gets ~8x8M. Some say 9+, others say 7, I think somewhere in between. I think he'll get slightly less, but it is better to take a higher number in a scenario.

Biron gets 2x1M. Getting up there, will take low $ to get a 2nd year.

Callahan gets 4x5.25M. I don't see how he comes cheaper, this contract will be bad by the end.

Girardi gets 4x5M. Hamhuis got 4.5M a few years ago, Girardi gets more.

Del Zotto gets 2x4M, he needs to prove himself before he gets a long deal.

Boyle gets 3x2M. Look at what Gaustad got.

Strålman gets 3x3.25M. Jonathan Ericsson comparable, solid UFA D's with upside get paid.

If McD and Step got 5.5, Hagelin 2.5, and Zucc 1.5 with the cap going up to 68M; that leaves us with 668k in cap space with 12F, 6D, 2G. Impossible, at least one more F and D is needed.

The season after that the following contracts expire:

Staal
Dorsett
Miller (Non-arb RFA)
Lindberg (Non-arb RFA)
Fasth (Non-arb RFA)
Hagelin (If he got 2 years)

Signing anyone this summer to more than 1 year will force us to a tough decision. We basically cannot afford to keep Boyle regardless of what we do. Girardi and Callahan are borderline.

Honestly, a bridge deal for Stepan can dismantle this team. Imagine having to pay him 7.5M in a few years.
 
I would be extremely cautious with Callahan's next contract. If Dustin Brown makes less than 4m a year on his, Callahan shouldn't be a 5m plus player.

The vast majority of his offense comes on the power play (He might be our best forward on the pp). That has to be a consideration.
 
Fitzy said:
I would be extremely cautious with Callahan's next contract. If Dustin Brown makes less than 4m a year on his, Callahan shouldn't be a 5m plus player.

The vast majority of his offense comes on the power play (He might be our best forward on the pp). That has to be a consideration.
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I really don't want to pay him 5.25 and am honestly not sure if I want him at a UFA contract at all, but I just don't see the organization letting him go (by trade or him walking as a UFA).

I wouldn't say he is our best PP forward though. He is probably better at his role on the PP than anyone on the team, but he's still a complimentary player there. Brassard/Zuccarello are probably more important for the PP.
 
Fitzy said:
I would be extremely cautious with Callahan's next contract. If Dustin Brown makes less than 4m a year on his, Callahan shouldn't be a 5m plus player.

The vast majority of his offense comes on the power play (He might be our best forward on the pp). That has to be a consideration.
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The Rangers should use Backes as a comparable. Backes signed a 5 Year $22.5M extension before testing UFA waters in 2011-12. The cap is dropping back down to 2011-12 level next year, and the players' share is 7 percentage points less than it used to be (so in all likelihood, the cap won't grow as quickly as it used to).

Brown and Oshie are similar players also, but their contract terms aren't comparable because they were extended during RFA.
 
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Fitzy said:
I would be extremely cautious with Callahan's next contract. If Dustin Brown makes less than 4m a year on his, Callahan shouldn't be a 5m plus player.

The vast majority of his offense comes on the power play (He might be our best forward on the pp). That has to be a consideration.
Click to expand...

Brown signed his contract 5 years ago as a non-arb eligible RFA. Callahan will be UFA. Big difference.

I don't see Sather giving out 8 year contracts to either Step or McD. McD will get a 4 or 5 year deal. He's arbitration eligible, so there will be more incentive to do a long term deal. Stepan will get a 2 or 5 year deal, depending on what other plans Sather has and how much cap space he needs.

McD will get about 4.5 per year. Stepan will get around 2.75 per on a 2 year deal, and about 4 mil per on a 5 year deal.

Hagelin will likely get a 2 year deal, even though he is arb eligible. Something around 2-2.5 mil per year.
 
RangerBoy said:
From: @RenLavoieRDS
Sent: Jun 18, 2013 11:25p

Slava Voynov:2013-14 1,750,000 + 1,000,000 SB 2014-15 3,000,000 2015-16 4,200,000 2016-17 4,400,000*2017-18 5,150,000 2018-19 5,500,000 * *

sent via Twitter for BlackBerry®
On Twitter: http://twitter.com/RenLavoieRDS/status/347193402066083840
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yea McD is going to get alot, Stepan is going to get alot...........Hagelin and Zuke wont break the bank though. Richards off the books will help the situation

Hank is going to get atleast 8 million
 
Blue Blooded said:
I'd like to repost my cap scenario post from the former thread as it ended up just at the end:

I've looked at future cap scenarios and we honestly need Stepan and McD to sign long term deals in the 5.5M region to have any chance of keeping this core together in the long run. And that is while getting contributions from Kreider/Miller/Lindberg/Fasth on their cheap ELC's and 2nd contracts.

These guys need new contracts starting 2014-15:

Lundqvist
Biron
Callahan
Brassard (Arb. RFA)
Boyle
Kreider (Non-arb? RFA)
Pyatt (Let go)
Powe (Let go)
Asham (Let go)
Girardi
Del Zotto (Arb. RFA)
Strålman
Moore (Non-arb? RFA)

The non-arb RFA get cheap bridge deals (Kreider 2x1.2M, Moore 2x1.3M)

If Brassard continues his strong form and scores 60-70p hell get ~4x5M. Points cost $$$.

Lundqvist gets ~8x8M. Some say 9+, others say 7, I think somewhere in between. I think he'll get slightly less, but it is better to take a higher number in a scenario.

Biron gets 2x1M. Getting up there, will take low $ to get a 2nd year.

Callahan gets 4x5.25M. I don't see how he comes cheaper, this contract will be bad by the end.

Girardi gets 4x5M. Hamhuis got 4.5M a few years ago, Girardi gets more.

Del Zotto gets 2x4M, he needs to prove himself before he gets a long deal.

Boyle gets 3x2M. Look at what Gaustad got.

Strålman gets 3x3.25M. Jonathan Ericsson comparable, solid UFA D's with upside get paid.

If McD and Step got 5.5, Hagelin 2.5, and Zucc 1.5 with the cap going up to 68M; that leaves us with 668k in cap space with 12F, 6D, 2G. Impossible, at least one more F and D is needed.

The season after that the following contracts expire:

Staal
Dorsett
Miller (Non-arb RFA)
Lindberg (Non-arb RFA)
Fasth (Non-arb RFA)
Hagelin (If he got 2 years)

Signing anyone this summer to more than 1 year will force us to a tough decision. We basically cannot afford to keep Boyle regardless of what we do. Girardi and Callahan are borderline.

Honestly, a bridge deal for Stepan can dismantle this team. Imagine having to pay him 7.5M in a few years.
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I would say Biron is gone for sure with Talbot signed to a 1 way deal after next yr. If King breaks the bank which he will then they need a dirt cheap backup

Stralman also is likely gone after next yr, I like him but McIlrath will be ready which is fine assuming Staal, Girardi, McD, DZ, Moore on D still

Also Boyle is gone too, Torts loved him but a guy like Lindberg hopefully takes over under Vingneault
 
I imagine that Stepan and McDonagh's contracts will be similarly structured to Voynov's. I.e., heavily back loaded that should put them in a prime opportunity to cash in on their UFA years.
 
I expect Callahan to make around what he is getting in salary his UFA year (and what Backes makes his UFA years) ~4.75.

If you look at contracts signed that are about to expire now, as long as the player is still somewhat at least what they were when they signed it, long term contracts usually become bargains. Get McDonagh and Stepan on 8 year contracts. If you have to pay them 5-5.5 to do it, don't hesitate. 4 years from now when the cap is 75-80, we'll have them in their prime for pennies on the dollar.
 
If Hank is serious that all he cares about is a cup now, then why would he ask for the highest cap hit in the league when the team could be kept together if he takes a slight raise? different sports but its like the Eli situation w the Giants, sure his cap hit is ridiculous but hes offered to restructure or even take a paycut. He said he would do whats needed, I really hope Hank does the same. Whats wrong with 8X8
 
Lundsanity30 said:
If Hank is serious that all he cares about is a cup now, then why would he ask for the highest cap hit in the league when the team could be kept together if he takes a slight raise? different sports but its like the Eli situation w the Giants, sure his cap hit is ridiculous but hes offered to restructure or even take a paycut. He said he would do whats needed, I really hope Hank does the same. Whats wrong with 8X8
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You say 8x8 like it's a bargain deal.
 
For context, this is what the Cap will look like if we assume a modest YoY growth of 2.5% in HRR:

Season | Revenue | Cap
2013-14 | 3450 | 64.3
2014-15 | 3536 | 64.3
2015-16 | 3625 | 65.64
2016-17 | 3715 | 67.38
2017-18 | 3808 | 69.16
2018-19 | 3903 | 70.98
2019-20 | 4001 | 72.85
2020-21 | 4101 | 74.77
2021-22 | 4203 | 76.73

If we assume a more aggressive growth of 5%:

Season | Revenue | Cap
2013-14 | 3450 | 64.3
2014-15 | 3623 | 65.61
2015-16 | 3804 | 69.08
2016-17 | 3994 | 72.72
2017-18 | 4193 | 76.53
2018-19 | 4403 | 80.56
2019-20 | 4623 | 84.77
2020-21 | 4854 | 89.2
2021-22 | 5097 | 93.86
 
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Boom Boom Geoffrion said:
I don't think McDonagh will get a penny over 4M.
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Same here. I think the screws will be put to McDonagh and Stepan.

McDonagh hasn't flashed enough of an offensive game to get $5M+, and Stepan played like a $5M+ centerman for about 30 games. Not enough to break the bank for these guys with a massive longterm commitment. I think $4M per for each of them sounds about right.
 
Crease said:
For context, this is what the Cap will look like if we assume a modest YoY growth of 2.5% in HRR:

Season | Revenue | Cap
2013-14 | 3450 | 64.3
2014-15 | 3536 | 64.3
2015-16 | 3625 | 65.64
2016-17 | 3715 | 67.38
2017-18 | 3808 | 69.16
2018-19 | 3903 | 70.98
2019-20 | 4001 | 72.85
2020-21 | 4101 | 74.77
2021-22 | 4203 | 76.73

If we assume a more aggressive growth of 5%:

Season | Revenue | Cap
2013-14 | 3450 | 64.3
2014-15 | 3623 | 65.61
2015-16 | 3804 | 69.08
2016-17 | 3994 | 72.72
2017-18 | 4193 | 76.53
2018-19 | 4403 | 80.56
2019-20 | 4623 | 84.77
2020-21 | 4854 | 89.2
2021-22 | 5097 | 93.86
Click to expand...

Why would the cap drop in 2014-15 if there is 2.5% growth? Didn't they agree that the cap could not drop below 64.3?
 
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Yeah I don't think there's a whole lot of leverage here for the Rangers when it comes to McDonagh. Yeah he didn't have spectacular offensive numbers, but he was 7th in the NHL in even-strength points among defenders last year, and was tied for 5th this year. Add even mild PP production to those and he's likely top-15 in defensive scoring each year, all while providing elite defense.

The lack of scoring is more of a function of Tortorella not using him on the PP than it is of McDonagh's abilities. Anything under $4.5M is going to look like a bargain for this guy in a matter of months, IMO.
 
Trxjw said:
Yeah I don't think there's a whole lot of leverage here for the Rangers when it comes to McDonagh. Yeah he didn't have spectacular offensive numbers, but he was 7th in the NHL in even-strength points among defenders last year, and was tied for 5th this year. Add even mild PP production to those and he's likely top-15 in defensive scoring each year, all while providing elite defense.

The lack of scoring is more of a function of Tortorella not using him on the PP than it is of McDonagh's abilities. Anything under $4.5M is going to look like a bargain for this guy in a matter of months, IMO.
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I totally agree. It's why if I had to choose between the two as to who (Stepan/McDonagh) gets the long deal, I choose McDonagh. You give him an extra 7-8 bogus assists on the PP (which he would get even if he was no good as long as he was given time), suddenly he's a 40+ point defender and his demands are 5.5-6.

Then again, I prefer to get both of them locked into long term contracts. These are players who if we go the bridge route, we will regret it in a few years. Especially if we buyout Richards, we'll have extra cap space. Signing them to long term contracts essentially states that we save cap later in return for a little extra now, when we don't even need it too much. That's not to mention 6 years from now the price on their UFA years could be 2 mil higher than it would cost to buy now.
 
RangerBoy said:
McDonagh is arbitration eligible. A 3rd party will decide his worth.
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Provided they make it that far. Most of the time, they don't.

This all depends on whether or not Sather wants to sign him to a 2nd and 3rd contract combined or if he just wants to sign him to a 2nd contract.
 
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