Prospect Info: 2013-2014 Rangers Prospects Thread *Part III* (Player Stats in Post #1; Updated 4/8)

[eco's bones]

I think projecting any college UFA as a 1st round talent is a bit much. These guys are like adding 2nd/3rd rounders. If nothing else they provide good depth and cost no assets to bring in.

One reason first rounders cost more is the possibility that they become stars. A big guy who falls to the end of the first because he is thought to have only third line potential may turn into Trachuk or Getzlaf. There is hope with top end 18 year olds. By the time you are dealing with 22-23 year olds, there is little of that. You are hoping to get a Brian Boyle quality (regardless of style) player, whom we acquired for a third rounder. Occasionally you stumble upon Girardi or Read, but that is MUCH more rare with UDFAs than late first rounders.

Guys like Haggerty and McCarthy would likely fetch no more than a third rounder in a trade.

Maybe comparing them to draft picks is a bad analogy but FWIW--a first rounder in a mediocre season vs. a first rounder in a great year are two different things. In an average draft--like the upcoming one is at best--the guys taken towards the lower end of the first round often don't make it to the NHL let alone if they do--turn into top 6 forwards or top 4 d-men. Drafts can be chock full of misses just as much as they can be chock full of hits.

There are also guys that fall between the cracks and lo and behold when they hit drinking age they really blossom--Danny Dekeyser, Chris Kunitz are just two more examples of free agent college players. There really are quite a number of NHL players who weren't drafted.

 

[BLOCKERSAVE]

This is what EVERY team's fans say when their prospect pool gets wiped out.

1. The idea that there is no space for kids is ridiculous. If a kid is good enough to play, he will. McDonagh was good enough, so we traded Rosie. Zubov was good enough to play, so we traded away Patrick.

2. You are describing this team as if it's some perennial Cup contender that wins every other year. It's not. It's barely a playoff team. Basically our run of prospect production has resulted in us being a low-end playoff team most seasons plus one run to the ECF. Now the players will age and some will leave, and we'll be back in the Dark Ages, having achieved nothing.

I've written about this years ago, but no, 90% of the board was screaming, "it's important to make the playoffs every year" as well as "Hank will get older, we need to give him a chance right now!"

We needed to take one more step in rebuilding. There was no need to keep Jagr, Nylander, Straka, Rucinsky, Rucchin and Sykora rather than trading them for valuable young assets that would've been in their prime right now. Throw in 1-2 top-6F and 1-2 top-4D, and this team is a legit contender right now. But instead of dumping our vets, we dumped draft picks for more vets.

The reason this team is what it is stems from the fans unwillingness to go through a full rebuild that requires a complete house-cleaning along with sinking to the bottom for 3 years minimum. No, I don't want to hear about Edmonton because while they are going through growing pains, they will be a terrific outfit for a decade starting within a couple of years. Meanwhile, we'll once again sink into the crapper.

So you rather be like the Islanders or the Oilers who is rather top 3 but can not make the playoffs for many years.

 

[McRanger]

http://www.calgarysun.com/2014/03/31/early-exit-no-joke-for-calgary-hitmen

The Rangers want Tambellini to get stronger.

Tambellini would count as an overager even though he is not 20 until November?

 

[Anthony Mauro]

Maybe comparing them to draft picks is a bad analogy but FWIW--a first rounder in a mediocre season vs. a first rounder in a great year are two different things. In an average draft--like the upcoming one is at best--the guys taken towards the lower end of the first round often don't make it to the NHL let alone if they do--turn into top 6 forwards or top 4 d-men. Drafts can be chock full of misses just as much as they can be chock full of hits.

There are also guys that fall between the cracks and lo and behold when they hit drinking age they really blossom--Danny Dekeyser, Chris Kunitz are just two more examples of free agent college players. There really are quite a number of NHL players who weren't drafted.

An average draft could expect to see 2-3 players turn into NHL'ers from picks 16-30. A 'deep' draft can see upwards of 7 or so - still less than 50%. No matter the depth of a draft, the top 15 usually turns out 10 players minimum.

You're right. Drafts are usually chock full of misses past a certain number. That number is earlier than most think.

The challenge is these UFA types are hard to pin down and rare.

 

[Brooklyn Rangers Fan]

So you rather be like the Islanders or the Oilers who is rather top 3 but can not make the playoffs for many years.

Ah, the tried and true response of the fan who refuses to accept the well-documented facts on the history of team-building, so that (s)he can continue to seek the instant gratification of win-now trades and first round playoff exits without a thought for the future.

No, we'd rather be like the Penguins, or Blackhawks, or Blues, or Bruins, or Kings, or Avalanche (do I need to go on?) who accept intelligent, well-executed rebuilding when it's necessary and don't hand out draft picks left and right like they're fliers for the new friggin' chicken joint going up on the corner.

 

[Inferno]

An article someone posted earlier, or something I read on my own, quoted a scout as saying that the majority of the higher-profile college free agents are basically equivalent to a pick in the 3rd-5th rounds. That sounds right to me. It's rare that you find a kid that would truly be a first or second round pick--Danny Dekeyser last year was a guy that probably would be a second round pick. NHL teams may miss guys that are late bloomers, but it's exceptionally rare for a guy to miss all his draft years and still develop into a player that would really be considered a first round talent.

You can pull decent guys out of those rounds. Dubinsky, Dominic Moore, Callahan, Weise, those were all guys taken in that range. Bozak and Matt Read are good success stories from the recent past.

Guess that makes Dan Girardi a real special player. He'd definitely be a first rounder if he was redrafted into his year.

 

[nyr2k2]

Guess that makes Dan Girardi a real special player. He'd definitely be a first rounder if he was redrafted into his year.

I'm not talking about in a re-draft--I'm talking about UDFA signings in the current draft class. Guys like Haggerty and McCarthy would probably go in the third round of this draft. Maybe the back end of the second, but definitely nowhere near the first.

But yeah, Girardi is certainly special. An All Star-caliber player out of an UDFA? You can probably count on two hands how often that has happened in the past couple decades.

 

[eco's bones]

Girardi's first draft year was 2002. It wasn't a very good draft year. Rangers top choice that year was Lee Falardeau. Best player for us in that draft was Petr Prucha followed by Joey Crabb.

Do that draft in hindsight and Girardi would come in 4th on my list.

1. Duncan Keith
2. Rick Nash
3. Jay Bouwmeester
4. Dan Girardi
5. Alexander Steen
6. Cam Ward
7. Valtteri Filppula
8. Jonathan Ericsson
9. Alexander Semin
10. Gary Lupul
11. Kari Lehtonen
12. Joni Pitkanen
13. Johnny Boychuk
14. James Wisniewski
15. Thomas Fleischmann
16. Trevor Daley
17. Frans Nielsen
18. Jarret Stoll
etc. etc. etc.

but I think most people would get the idea from the above list that 2002 was not that good a year--that it churned out a handful of 2nd line forwards and 2nd pairing d-men. So that signing an undrafted Girardi was really like getting a top 5 first round pick.

 

[Beacon]

So you rather be like the Islanders or the Oilers who is rather top 3 but can not make the playoffs for many years.

The Islanders have been badly mismanaged by Milbury, the worst GM in my lifetime. Snow hasn't done a good job either.

As far as Edmonton goes, it may sound like a joke right now, but I would rather be in their shoes than ours. They will be a tremendous team as their kids mature. Three first overall picks, (likely) a second overall this season, Eberle, Perron, Gagner, Schultz, and a great group of prospects like Nurse, Klefbom, Roy, etc.

Once they acquire a goalie (at least one starter is available every season) and allow their kids and prospects to mature, they will be a hell of a team for a long time. I see Edmonton as a permanent Cup contender for a decade starting in a couple of seasons.

 

[Don Chytil]

Once they acquire a goalie (at least one starter is available every season) and allow their kids and prospects to mature, they will be a hell of a team for a long time. I see Edmonton as a permanent Cup contender for a decade starting in a couple of seasons.

I think the Scrivens-Fasth duo has potential to be solid for them, I'd say coaching is a bigger concern than goalie at this point honestly. I know a bunch of people here wanted Eakins, I said he'd be at the top of my list right along with AV. But man, I think we really dodged a bullet there.

 

[Joey Bones]

Girardi's first draft year was 2002. It wasn't a very good draft year. Rangers top choice that year was Lee Falardeau. Best player for us in that draft was Petr Prucha followed by Joey Crabb.

Do that draft in hindsight and Girardi would come in 4th on my list.

1. Duncan Keith
2. Rick Nash
3. Jay Bouwmeester
4. Dan Girardi
5. Alexander Steen
6. Cam Ward
7. Valtteri Filppula
8. Jonathan Ericsson
9. Alexander Semin
10. Gary Lupul
11. Kari Lehtonen
12. Joni Pitkanen
13. Johnny Boychuk
14. James Wisniewski
15. Thomas Fleischmann
16. Trevor Daley
17. Frans Nielsen
18. Jarret Stoll
etc. etc. etc.

but I think most people would get the idea from the above list that 2002 was not that good a year--that it churned out a handful of 2nd line forwards and 2nd pairing d-men. So that signing an undrafted Girardi was really like getting a top 5 first round pick.

Thats's crazy to think that we picked Falardeau then and Prucha ended up being our best drafted player of that class. Girardi would've easily been top 10, given he produced then. Nice analysis.

Edit: What happened to Prucha? Is he still playing?

 

[RangerBoy]

"I want to get stronger and develop my game as much as possible," said Tambellini. "Playing this pro-style level, it's going to lead onto the AHL and one day hopefully the NHL. Again I will be playing against men in those leagues, so getting stronger is the number one thing."

At 6'3 and 185 pounds, Adam's been told by the Rangers that he has to get stronger. He's a known playmaker - a skilled centre who can play a two-way game and also carries a great shot. But Williamson says he has to grow into his frame and like most other junior players, he has to become more consistent.

http://www.tsn.ca/nhl/story/?id=444108

 

[RangerBoy]

Tambellini would count as an overager even though he is not 20 until November?

Yes. Tambellini would be an overage player.

 

[TheRightWay]

Adam Herman ‏@Herman_NYRBlog 47m
Per @SClicheJDQ, Anthony Duclair is still suffering effects from the concussion and won't report to Hartford on an ATO. His season is over.

This sucks.

 

[keppel146]

What side does Skjei play? Imagine if he could play on the 3rd pairing with Klein next year! (I doubt it, but that would be sick).

Ive seen skjei play the right side

 

[eco's bones]

Thats's crazy to think that we picked Falardeau then and Prucha ended up being our best drafted player of that class. Girardi would've easily been top 10, given he produced then. Nice analysis.

Edit: What happened to Prucha? Is he still playing?

Prucha played in the KHL in 2012-13. I don't think he played this year.

 

[Leetch3]

Tambellini would count as an overager even though he is not 20 until November?

in juniors age is determined by the players age on 12/31...so if you turn 20 on jan 1st or dec 31st you are considered a 20 year old.

 

[Raspewtin]

Tambellini should go to the Dub for an overage year. It's more about consistency and strength training at this point than honing his skill.

 

[NYR Viper]

Tambellini should go to the Dub for an overage year. It's more about consistency and strength training at this point than honing his skill.

Agreed. One more year of juniors for him

 

[Raspewtin]

Agreed. One more year of juniors for him

Though to be fair, I'd say he's too good for the Dub.

If he wasn't still a twig (185 lbs at 6' 3" isn't going to cut it), I'd maybe bring him to the A.

 

[NYR Viper]

Though to be fair, I'd say he's too good for the Dub.

If he wasn't still a twig (185 lbs at 6' 3" isn't going to cut it), I'd maybe bring him to the A.

I don't think he is TOO good for the WHL. St Croix clearly outscored him and went back. Both were underdeveloped physically. These types of players take time. Skilled underdeveloped forwards. One more year in the WHL, maybe a year in the ECHL like St Croix. I guarantee people will sour on him after next year as the transition to the pros will be a difficult one, just like for St Croix.

 

[McRanger]

Yes. Tambellini would be an overage player.

So he would be eligible for the AHL despite not being 20, should the Rangers choose that seemingly unlikely path?

 

[NYR Viper]

So he would be eligible for the AHL despite not being 20, should the Rangers choose that seemingly unlikely path?

Yes, because when he was drafted, he was not in the CHL

 

[RangerBoy]

Look at Tambellini as one of the late blooming college free agents. DeKeyser made the jump from college hockey to the NHL at 23. That wouldn't have happened at 20 or 21. A Rangers scout said DeKeyser wasn't ready for the AHL after his junior year. A WMU blog reported that. DeKeyser was similar to Erixon who was having a tough time in the AHL during his first season. Then you have Stepan who never played a second in the AHL after 2 years of college. When the Rangers signed him,there was speculation about Stepan going to Calgary to play as an overage player. Calgary held his CHL rights. Stepan wasn't the biggest or fastest player. Tambellini will go to Rangers prospects camp in late June and it will be up to him. Tambellini was injured going into Rangers prospects camp last June.

 

[haveandare]

The Islanders have been badly mismanaged by Milbury, the worst GM in my lifetime. Snow hasn't done a good job either.

As far as Edmonton goes, it may sound like a joke right now, but I would rather be in their shoes than ours. They will be a tremendous team as their kids mature. Three first overall picks, (likely) a second overall this season, Eberle, Perron, Gagner, Schultz, and a great group of prospects like Nurse, Klefbom, Roy, etc.

Once they acquire a goalie (at least one starter is available every season) and allow their kids and prospects to mature, they will be a hell of a team for a long time. I see Edmonton as a permanent Cup contender for a decade starting in a couple of seasons.

How many of those guys are really going to mature enough to take another step though? It's not like their top picks haven't matured and found their groove already - they're all fairly productive players, at least Eberle, Hall and RNH. The jury is still out on Yakupov, and he'll almost certainly improve, but I'm not sure who else has that much room to grow, especially in such a losing culture.

In my opinion, Eberle, Hall, Perron and Gagner are what they are. They're good players, too, but they're not going to take another huge step IMO. Schultz can and might, same for RNH, Yak can and probably will, and I'm sure Klefbom will improve.

I just really don't see the whole team turning a corner like that. I'd rather be in our shoes than theirs every single time. I mean, Hank, McD, Staal and Girardi plus forwards like Step, Nash, and Kreider vs. an inept defense, a goalie who is very good sometimes, and a talented forward corps that can't even lift their team just a little bit out of the absolute basement in the league?

I'd be pretty shocked if the same lineup that has been so terrible, plus or minus a few players, becomes a cup contender at any point. It's not impossible, and in fact, I'd like to see it in a way, but I personally don't feel it's likely to happen.