2010-11 Hart Trophy Revisit.

[Felidae]

Before we get to a more spicy Hart season, let's talk about one that's not nearly as discussed.

This was actually slightly closer than Jagr vs Thornton in terms of votes. Perry had 67 1st place votes to D. Sedin's 51, and once again, no one else was really considered (only 1 player got more than a single 1st place vote)

That being said, this wasn't the strongest year for forwards. The big 3(Malkin, Crosby, Ovechkin) had injuries/down years, allowing for the next tier of superstars to win some hardware. So it is a bit surprising no one else got consideration.

The Norris winners didn't really stand a chance of course, Weber and Chara were shutdown defenseman that lacked the gaudy points totals voters love.


But there were quite a few great goaltending seasons. Price carried an average team to the playoffs, sporting a .923sv% while having the 2nd highest workload. Rinne had a lesser workload but still played 60+ games with the 2nd best sv%.

and ofc, Thomas had the highest sv% since 1968, good for 3rd highest all time. It would immediately be topped the following year, but voters couldn't have known that at the time.

So, did the voters get it right? Discuss

Click to read more...

 

[ESH]

March 9th 2011, going into Anaheim’s 67th game of the season, the Ducks were sitting in 11th place in the Western Conference, fighting for a playoff spot. This was the start of an insane scoring run from Corey Perry, who willed the Ducks to the playoffs.

Fast forward to the end of the regular season and the Ducks are sitting at 4th in their conference, largely because of the 19 goals and 30 points Perry put up in their last 16 games of the season.

It’s rare that you see a player bust out a scoring pace like that at such a critical time to drag his team into not only just a playoff position, but a home ice advantage on top.

 

[DitchMarner]

I've never had a problem with the fact Perry won. He played at a superstar level that year, especially toward the end of the season. Crosby would have won easily if not for his injury. I'm sure there are cases to be made for St. Louis, Sedin and others, but I don't think there was any big injustice in who won that year.

 

[JackSlater]

Perry's win made sense in that he had the narrative on his side by the end of the year, namely his hot streak to end the year and carry Anaheim into the playoffs as outlined above. It was always going to be an unimpressive winner since everyone knew that Crosby was the best player that year but he missed too much time, Lidstrom was the Norris winner as a career achievement award and no defenceman had a great year, Thomas was the Vezina winner despite not being very good, Malkin was hurt, Ovechkin was suddenly a step down as a player. There was no option to blow you away.

I do think that Perry was better than Sedin that year but even moreso he was more valuable. His team was worse, his centre, who wasn't his literal ideal linemate but to be fair was probably close to that, missed a bit of time, and their performances were fairly similar. It belongs with the 1992, 2013, 2018, and 2022 Harts. Or those weird 1950s Harts, to a degree.

 

[Michael Farkas]

Perry was a fine choice for the circumstances.

Rinne and Price...and maybe even Fleury...would have been better goalie choices than Thomas. Rinne did finish ahead of him in Hart voting as I recall...

MSL should have been way up there too.

Chara should have done better in the voting for Hart and Norris...

 

[buffalowing88]

I picked Perry because he definitely did rise to the occasion and that team was a shell of the dominant squad just a few years prior. He dragged them to the playoffs, at least on the offensive end.

My heart favors Chara, though. I definitely gravitate towards the physically-dominant defensemen of that era as being more impactful than their stats may suggest. Just like I think Pronger deserves a Hart or two after the 05 Lockout, I think Chara has a case for it this year. When you tilt the ice that way, you make everyone around you look so much better, including the goalie in this case.

 

[MadLuke]

Chara led the league in +/-, was the mvp of one of the best team with the second best defence in the league, could have been a nice time to have him in the finalist list (or at least a Top 5 once in his career, single top 10 look rough on his resume)

 

[The Panther]

Nothing against Perry, who clearly had a great push at the end to elevate his team in the standings (and won the 'Rocket', etc.), but up to game 67 he was sixth in scoring and was the only 'minus' player of the top 11 scorers. There's no way he wins the Hart -- probably not even top three -- as late as March 9th. So, I guess the question is: Did he deserve it for his final 15 games? That strikes me as a sketchy time period to base a Hart on, but it's just one of those seasons when no one forward totally stood out.

I will say that the Sedins (esp. Daniel) probably "lost" it because they are identical twins.

 

[bobholly39]

I'll echo what others have said - Perry is probably a fine choice. That streak at the end of the season was extremely impactful in helping his team make the playoffs, so there's strong value too.

One of the weakest hart seasons on record overall, but still worthy vs other contenders in year. It was either him or Sedin, but I prefer Perry.

I see a few other names thrown out....such as Carey Price who I'm a big fan of. I'm a big supporter of the idea that to win the hart - you don't only need to be the most valuable player to your team, but also have the very best season (or, very close to). Tim Thomas definitely had a better season than Price, Rinne or other goalies - it wouldn't make any sense for any goalie outside of Thomas to be in serious contention to win the hart that year.

 

[Felidae]

Rinne and Price...and maybe even Fleury...would have been better goalie choices than Thomas. Rinne did finish ahead of him in Hart voting as I recall...

Thomas was the Vezina winner despite not being very good,

Interesting to see two people say this about a statistically dominant Vezina season. Highest sv% of the decade, 4th all time, and as much as you could attribute his stats to the system and team in front of him, Rask who is a very good goaltender, was nowhere near Tim Thomas that season (and in general, never really reached the same heights)

But I'm sure you know all of that by now, so I'm just curious what's the basis behind this opinion.

 

[Michael Farkas]

I don't agree that Thomas had a better season than either of them. Even in the current scenario where that season was briefly revered by averaging stat lovers - Rinne finished ahead of Thomas in Hart voting and Rinne narrowly lost the Vezina.

Also, since we have seen what a tremendous difference 10-12 games can make to obvious Hart winners (Jagr 2000, Crosby 2013, etc.)

Thomas got 55 decisions, Rinne 64, Price got 72...and to a lesser extent Fleury 61. All three of them were more impactful to their teams than Thomas was to his from what I saw and they did it in more games.

(and in general, never really reached the same heights)

Rask had a lower GAA the previous year as a rookie. Then posted essentially the same GAA in three straight years shortly thereafter.

 

[Michael Farkas]

I've talked about how the Bruins system was designed to allow long easy shots and then collapse for the inevitable rebound (well, from Thomas). I've since learned that Thomas encouraged players not to block these shots to help pump his numbers and help with his contract. Plus, Boston was an over-counter for shots going wide. So it was a perfect storm.

The Bruins had one of the worst unblocked shots against numbers since that number was publicly available in 2011. Of the worst 100 offenders in that stat since 2010, more teams finished last (29) than made the playoffs at all (23). Only 8 of the 100 advanced beyond the first round - including Boston's Cup in '11.

It was by design, it's not a very good stat to begin with...but it's not so hard to manipulate if you want to pump it...just like Corsi for a bit, where folks thought, "this is the key..." - it's not, it's just a byproduct of circumstance sometimes. The thing is, shot metrics aren't interesting. They can be pumped if, for some reason, you have the desire...

 

[Dennis Bonvie]

I picked Perry because he definitely did rise to the occasion and that team was a shell of the dominant squad just a few years prior. He dragged them to the playoffs, at least on the offensive end.

My heart favors Chara, though. I definitely gravitate towards the physically-dominant defensemen of that era as being more impactful than their stats may suggest. Just like I think Pronger deserves a Hart or two after the 05 Lockout, I think Chara has a case for it this year. When you tilt the ice that way, you make everyone around you look so much better, including the goalie in this case.

Should be noted that Tuukka Rask was 11-14-2 that season.

I guess Chara was only making one goalie look good.

That said, Big Z could have won the Norris that season and it wouldn't have surprised anyone.

 

[Dennis Bonvie]

I've talked about how the Bruins system was designed to allow long easy shots and then collapse for the inevitable rebound (well, from Thomas). I've since learned that Thomas encouraged players not to block these shots to help pump his numbers and help with his contract. Plus, Boston was an over-counter for shots going wide. So it was a perfect storm.

The Bruins had one of the worst unblocked shots against numbers since that number was publicly available in 2011. Of the worst 100 offenders in that stat since 2010, more teams finished last (29) than made the playoffs at all (23). Only 8 of the 100 advanced beyond the first round - including Boston's Cup in '11.

It was by design, it's not a very good stat to begin with...but it's not so hard to manipulate if you want to pump it...just like Corsi for a bit, where folks thought, "this is the key..." - it's not, it's just a byproduct of circumstance sometimes. The thing is, shot metrics aren't interesting. They can be pumped if, for some reason, you have the desire...

Got a source for that one?

 

[Michael Farkas]

Got a source for that one?

Aaron Ward said it. He also tweeted it at one point, I'm trying to remember how he said it so I can search it.

 

[Dennis Bonvie]

Aaron Ward said it. He also tweeted it at one point, I'm trying to remember how he said it so I can search it.

Thanks!

 

[Michael Farkas]

Should be noted that Tuukka Rask was 11-14-2 that season.

I guess Chara was only making one goalie look good.

That's the trouble with averaging stats...they're subject to extreme values.

Rask had a bad outing against Detroit (probably), giving up 5 on 19 and got yanked after 40.

Without that game, we have a 1.88 GAA, .922 save pct.

When Thomas gave up 5+ in games, Boston helped him out by scoring 8 goals, and 7 goals, respectively.

 

[Dennis Bonvie]

That's the trouble with averaging stats...they're subject to extreme values.

Rask had a bad outing against Detroit (probably), giving up 5 on 19 and got yanked after 40.

Without that game, we have a 1.88 GAA, .922 save pct.

When Thomas gave up 5+ in games, Boston helped him out by scoring 8 goals, and 7 goals, respectively.

Don't believe I mentioned GAA or save%.

Just wins and losses.

Clearly the Bruins were a lot better in games where Thomas was in goal.

 

[MadLuke]

Plus, Boston was an over-counter for shots going wide.

That had been going on for a long time in Boston but was still true in 2011 ?

Thomas home: .9397, 880 shots against in 1718 minutes of play (30.76 shots by 60)
Thomas road: .9367, 931 shots against in 1645 minutes of play (33.95 shots by 60)

Bruins as a teams: 31.9 shots against home, 33.5 on the road.

Maybe teams are supposed to be even worst on the road than at home shot against wise than that, but considering how close the end result is, probably not a big factor.

Without that game, we have a 1.88 GAA, .922 save pct.

The gap between .922 and .938 is still quite big, 62 goals against by 1000 shots versus 78, you are letting 25% more shots go in.

Not sure about the 1.88 GAA without that game ?

He would have 66 goals against in 1554 minutes of play, for a 2.55 GAA I think (going from 1.88 to 2.67 in one game would be quite something).

 

[JackSlater]

Interesting to see two people say this about a statistically dominant Vezina season. Highest sv% of the decade, 4th all time, and as much as you could attribute his stats to the system and team in front of him, Rask who is a very good goaltender, was nowhere near Tim Thomas that season (and in general, never really reached the same heights)

But I'm sure you know all of that by now, so I'm just curious what's the basis behind this opinion.

It's mostly been explained, but mainly for me it's that I watched Thomas and saw a goaltender being carried by an elite defensive team, in terms of strategy and personnel. He was exactly what I didn't want in a goaltender in terms of how he played. I'll also add that despite Boston having a defensive minded coach and various good to great defensive players, the team allowed the second most shots against in 2010-2011. Almost as if Boston played to allow a lot of shots but fewer legitimate chances.

This has also been mentioned but even if I believed that Thomas was the best goaltender that year, he wouldn't be a legitimate contender for the Hart since he missed a high number of games. The Hart is by definition about value and missed games add no value.

 

[WarriorofTime]

Perry 3rd in points (6 behind Art Ross) and 1st in Goals (5 ahead of second place). Solid narrative of getting Anaheim into the postseason.

If you did a combined Regular and Post-Season, it's Tim Thomas for sure, but you're not giving a Goalie Hart for finishing tied for 9th in Wins. As for the Rinne debate, they finished virtually identical in Hart Voting (and both outside Top 3, each received one 1st place vote) but Thomas won the Vezina pretty comfortably with 17/30 first place votes, compared to 6 first place votes for Rinne.

Grungy year for sure. The DPE 2.0 isn't explored nearly enough.

 

[vadim sharifijanov]

It's mostly been explained, but mainly for me it's that I watched Thomas and saw a goaltender being carried by an elite defensive team, in terms of strategy and personnel. He was exactly what I didn't want in a goaltender in terms of how he played. I'll also add that despite Boston having a defensive minded coach and various good to great defensive players, the team allowed the second most shots against in 2010-2011. Almost as if Boston played to allow a lot of shots but fewer legitimate chances.

This has also been mentioned but even if I believed that Thomas was the best goaltender that year, he wouldn't be a legitimate contender for the Hart since he missed a high number of games. The Hart is by definition about value and missed games add no value.

anyone who watched the finals instead of just looking at thomas’ stats should know this. it was like in pickup when you give a guy an open shot at the three pt line and double team in the post

then and now my mvp was MSL. i have to remember my reasoning but i’ll come back to this. i was very sure of it at the time.

 

[Dennis Bonvie]

anyone who watched the finals instead of just looking at thomas’ stats should know this. it was like in pickup when you give a guy an open shot at the three pt line and double team in the post

then and now my mvp was MSL. i have to remember my reasoning but i’ll come back to this. i was very sure of it at the time.

So how good was that Bruins team?

In a 7-game series against the top scoring team in the league, they only allowed 8 goals.

And apparently did it with a mediocre goalie.

 

[Michael Farkas]

Really, really good. They should have only given up five and shortened that series. But because of goaltending, it was left up to chance...

Like these first three goals in this video...



It's also why the team most familiar with him (Montreal) - who had a bottom five offense, scored 17 on him in the ECQF. That series was a post away from going south, a Michael Ryder save from going south...Thomas was flat out not good in that series overall.

 

[WarriorofTime]

So how good was that Bruins team?

In a 7-game series against the top scoring team in the league, they only allowed 8 goals.

And apparently did it with a mediocre goalie.

Apparently the greatest team of all time, probably why they won so many other Cups in that era with something other than Peak Thomas.