2009 Born for the 2025 OHL DRAFT

[OMG67]

So defensive again and missing the point and exaggerating / altering what is being said, over and over, now belittling. Taking away opportunities systematically with selfish / corrupt / lazy practices from when kids start (at mass scale) removes ones with great potential left undeveloped, this is just one last time for some. Your self-serving #"s are meaningless. As yes, most do may not come back rejuvenated in u18 etc. when rejected so unjustly again, with self-righteous scouts and paid for player reviews / rankings which lazy scouts use when not bothering to take time for those lower on their potential curve and putting up lower points, but still very good for their situation and opportunities (ice time, little to no power play etc.) Unbiased statistics from vision software will soon be used and negate the bias, providing incredible statistics on everything from play with and without the puck, defensive and offense skills throughout games, everything from takeaways, opposition shut down, pass aim, speed, completion, skating acceleration, IQ, (options available vs chosen) etc. etc., then the archaic and corrupt practices will be gone. It will be fair, impartial and adjust to whom a player is against on each play. Then likely a case like Konnor Smith would be validated by these statistics and prove their worth / effectiveness, as there are different types of players, and roles that aide in a team being successful. Though don’t think he would get drafted this year. Though surely, you'll tell me this will never happen even though it's well on its way.

If AI can truly create metrics based on vision software and it then can be used as a tool in the overall toolbox then I agree. But, the reality is the AI tools can only go so far. But, like you said, it would at least provide the opportunity to create a more even playing field for evaluation. The intangibles are where you need humans assessing. I’m not sure AI could properly assess the intangibles.

 

[oldtymehockeyguy]

If AI can truly create metrics based on vision software and it then can be used as a tool in the overall toolbox then I agree. But, the reality is the AI tools can only go so far. But, like you said, it would at least provide the opportunity to create a more even playing field for evaluation. The intangibles are where you need humans assessing. I’m not sure AI could properly assess the intangibles.

Thank you for non defensive response and being open to discussion, and yes a much much more even playing field, sure will always need some over-site and intangibles review, but it will make immense progress and fairness in evaluation. Again, will spout irrelevant stats and ignore there are problems with how is done at all levels not just this draft, question is why so defensive and not wanting change?

 

[HKYLVR72]

Of course it’s the same numbers. It’s documented from league rosters. @HockeyPops numbers are similar.

2 players a year, that’s what gets missed. 0.002 percent of undrafted kids end up being missed a year.

Worth crying about for sure

Here are some numbers to relate to:

300 kids picked very year (20 per round x 15 rounds)
100 kids top prospects (rounds 1-5 = 99% accuracy)
10 kids in rounds 6-15 actual prospects (5% of 200 kids will sign and or play in OHL in last 10 rounds)
110 kids top prospects / 300 kids drafted = hit rate of 36% accuracy.

What I am arguing is for the remaining 190 kids (63%) wont see a team dressing room, sign with the team or play a game. We need to reduce this number to make the league better, instead of what is happening now.

 

[OHL4Life]

Here are some numbers to relate to:

300 kids picked very year (20 per round x 15 rounds)
100 kids top prospects (rounds 1-5 = 99% accuracy)
10 kids in rounds 6-15 actual prospects (5% of 200 kids will sign and or play in OHL in last 10 rounds)
110 kids top prospects / 300 kids drafted = hit rate of 36% accuracy.

What I am arguing is for the remaining 190 kids (63%) wont see a team dressing room, sign with the team or play a game. We need to reduce this number to make the league better, instead of what is happening now.

But how does that help the OHL? And honestly how does it help any kid? Having been in the room for something like 36 years, teams try pretty hard to fro hit on these late picks and give them to area guys who think they may have something on a kid. Most of the time wrong, but sometimes they hit. Windsor’s best overage was a 15th round pick.

Again I do they why it’s such a massive issue, we miss a few kids a year, so does the nhl? They have every tool possible to make picks and still miss.

I hate to break it to you but no matter what you do, kids will be missed because to @HockeyPops point, some are late bloomers. They is no perfection. There is no perfect system. The fact that we only miss on two kids a year to me is outstanding

 

[Kingpin794]

Here are some numbers to relate to:

300 kids picked very year (20 per round x 15 rounds)
100 kids top prospects (rounds 1-5 = 99% accuracy)
10 kids in rounds 6-15 actual prospects (5% of 200 kids will sign and or play in OHL in last 10 rounds)
110 kids top prospects / 300 kids drafted = hit rate of 36% accuracy.

What I am arguing is for the remaining 190 kids (63%) wont see a team dressing room, sign with the team or play a game. We need to reduce this number to make the league better, instead of what is happening now.

I mean you can artificially make that percent of missed picks go down to feel better about it but at the end of the day you only get about 100 kids from any draft into the league because there's only so many spots open. If you ever get like 200 kids into the league, it means there's serious roster turn over issues.

 

[bobber]

But how does that help the OHL? And honestly how does it help any kid? Having been in the room for something like 36 years, teams try pretty hard to fro hit on these late picks and give them to area guys who think they may have something on a kid. Most of the time wrong, but sometimes they hit. Windsor’s best overage was a 15th round pick.

Again I do they why it’s such a massive issue, we miss a few kids a year, so does the nhl? They have every tool possible to make picks and still miss.

I hate to break it to you but no matter what you do, kids will be missed because to @HockeyPops point, some are late bloomers. They is no perfection. There is no perfect system. The fact that we only miss on two kids a year to me is outstanding

Yantsis was not drafted but signed by the Rangers before the Under18 Draft. Went on to score 50 goals his last season. Arber Xhekaj was a free agent in the Rangers camp.

 

[OHL4Life]

Yantsis was not drafted but signed by the Rangers before the Under18 Draft. Went on to score 50 goals his last season. Arber Xhekaj was a free agent in the Rangers camp.

and those are guys who bloomed late, xhekaj brother too. more proof that if your good you will be found. Some don’t cry about the draft and politics they push through and prove themselves

imagine them quitting and pouting because they didnt get drafted, come on.

 

[BobbyStokers9713]

Players to keep an eye on for potential defection - Murata and Edgar.

 

[Bra Wavers]

A quick scan of the team rosters has the following players from the U18 draft rostered on OHL teams this year. There are quite a lot more than I realized. How many of them are impact players though? 2? 3? And many didn't get much more than a cup of coffee in the O.
BRA - Julian Demiglio
BRA - Graeme MacAuley
BFD - Daniel Chen
ERI - Jack Clarke
ERI - Oliver Phillips
ERI - Brett Hammond
GUE - William Haley
GUE - Liam Conway
KGN - Riley Clark
KGN - Max Shewfelt
KIT - Jack LaBrash
LDN - Jacob Julien
NIA - Hayden Jeffery
NIA - Linkin Stinson-Kurz
NB - Jonathan Kapergeridis
OSH - Hayden Sabourin
OTT - Theo Avila
OTT - Liam Conway
OS - Trent Gates
OS - Bruce McDonald
OS - Sam Ethier
PBO - Dylan Turcotte
PBO - Brennan Faulkner
PBO - Matthew Jenken
SAG - Calem Mangone
SAG - Lincoln Moore
SAR - Nick Surzycia
SOO - Noah Tegelaar
SBY - Joey Brehmer
SBY - Rowan Henderson
SBY - Nate Krawchuk
SBY - Luke Suys
WSR - Alec Stewart
WSR - Evan Hjelholt
WSR - Michael Newlove

Here is some interesting stats on players drafted in the first four U18 drafts (2017-2020). I'll call these guys "late bloomers".
They were not taken in the priority draft, were chosen in the U18 draft and ultimately ended up dressing for some games of pro hockey in North America (AHL, ECHL or *NHL)

 

[leafs4life94]

Here is some interesting stats on players drafted in the first four U18 drafts (2017-2020). I'll call these guys "late bloomers".
They were not taken in the priority draft, were chosen in the U18 draft and ultimately ended up dressing for some games of pro hockey in North America (AHL, ECHL or *NHL)

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Kind of fascinating neither of Kingston's picks that have played pro games played a single OHL game. Carriere was because he went the NCAA route, but Fox I think just simply didn't make it.

I wonder how many other players on this list didn't play OHL games.

 

[OHL4Life]

Kind of fascinating neither of Kingston's picks that have played pro games played a single OHL game. Carriere was because he went the NCAA route, but Fox I think just simply didn't make it.

I wonder how many other players on this list didn't play OHL games.

keep in mind as well that alot of the time cis/usports players decline echl opportunities, they pay is awful and really not worth throwing away your schooling for, so it doesnt shock me that kids who could not make the ohl or where very low end ohl players move onto echl. not alot but there are some.

 

[Section7fan]

Players to keep an eye on for potential defection - Murata and Edgar.

Have they not shown up for team press announcements?

 

[BobbyStokers9713]

Have they not shown up for team press announcements?

Edgar has been nowhere to be found, dev camp is this week so we will see. I wouldn't send my client there if I was Doug Orr.

Murata hearing will report to dev camp this week to check out the situation and decide. Probably 50/50.

 

[leafs4life94]

keep in mind as well that alot of the time cis/usports players decline echl opportunities, they pay is awful and really not worth throwing away your schooling for, so it doesnt shock me that kids who could not make the ohl or where very low end ohl players move onto echl. not alot but there are some.

I always forget how low the actual pay is on ECHL deals - that makes sense

 

[Logosarejusttargets]

I always forget how low the actual pay is on ECHL deals - that makes sense

For what it's worth:
The average annual salary for an ECHL hockey player is around $61,565. This is a rough estimate, as salaries can vary significantly depending on experience, performance, and team contract terms. Rookie players have a minimum weekly salary of $530, while returning players have a minimum of $575. The salary cap for an ECHL team is $14,600 per week.

Here's a more detailed breakdown:

• Rookies (fewer than 25 regular season pro games): Minimum $530 weekly, Maximum $620 weekly.
• Returning Players: Minimum $575 weekly.
• Average Annual Salary: Around $61,565.
• • Top Earners: Can make up to $117,000 annually.
  • Salary Cap: $14,600 per week (for the 2024-25 season).
  • Minimum Weekly Salary: $11,100 for a team.

 

[HockeyPops]

What does a player with an NHL contract that is reassigned to the ECHL make?

 

[leafs4life94]

What does a player with an NHL contract that is reassigned to the ECHL make?

I don't know for sure but I would imagine they make their AHL salary, assuming a player being sent to the ECHL is on a 2-way deal.

I think the AHL has two-way deals too so players on AHL contracts could have a different salary depending if they're in the AHL or ECHL.

I don't think 3-way deals exist where there's a different salary in all 3 leagues but who knows.

 

[Sam14]

Edgar has been nowhere to be found, dev camp is this week so we will see. I wouldn't send my client there if I was Doug Orr.

1st Edgar and 4th Tang (and his father) not attending IceDogs rookie camp.

 

[BobbyStokers9713]

1st Edgar and 4th Tang (and his father) not attending IceDogs rookie camp.

Well that just about seals it for Edgar.

 

[Section5Petes]

Well that just about seals it for Edgar.

Dogs still got lots of time to convince Edgar to come which also means some time for the organization to try and sort some things out… If not, he’d look good in maroon and white!!

 

[Wolf on a Wire]

A quick scan of the team rosters has the following players from the U18 draft rostered on OHL teams this year. There are quite a lot more than I realized. How many of them are impact players though? 2? 3? And many didn't get much more than a cup of coffee in the O.
BRA - Julian Demiglio
BRA - Graeme MacAuley
BFD - Daniel Chen
ERI - Jack Clarke
ERI - Oliver Phillips
ERI - Brett Hammond
GUE - William Haley
GUE - Liam Conway
KGN - Riley Clark
KGN - Max Shewfelt
KIT - Jack LaBrash
LDN - Jacob Julien
NIA - Hayden Jeffery
NIA - Linkin Stinson-Kurz
NB - Jonathan Kapergeridis
OSH - Hayden Sabourin
OTT - Theo Avila
OTT - Liam Conway
OS - Trent Gates
OS - Bruce McDonald
OS - Sam Ethier
PBO - Dylan Turcotte
PBO - Brennan Faulkner
PBO - Matthew Jenken
SAG - Calem Mangone
SAG - Lincoln Moore
SAR - Nick Surzycia
SOO - Noah Tegelaar
SBY - Joey Brehmer
SBY - Rowan Henderson
SBY - Nate Krawchuk
SBY - Luke Suys
WSR - Alec Stewart
WSR - Evan Hjelholt
WSR - Michael Newlove

My prediction: Late BDay Henderson from Wolves’s will be drafted by an NHL team. 2026 Draft.

 

[BobbyStokers9713]

Dogs still got lots of time to convince Edgar to come which also means some time for the organization to try and sort some things out… If not, he’d look good in maroon and white!!

There is nothing they can say or do for this upcoming year that will change anything- the fact that he didn't even go down there once is telling enough. its done.

 

[dogs777]

Dogs still got lots of time to convince Edgar to come which also means some time for the organization to try and sort some things out… If not, he’d look good in maroon and white!!

Only chance they’d have to get him to come and several others to stay is new ownership but we’ll see if the idiot in charge figures out it’s time to sell. As for where Edgar ends up I think we all know the answer to that one

 

[frontsfan67]

I respect a lot of your takes, frankly I agree with most of them. You have shown you are well connected and have a ton of knowledge and history in the game but this post and your bluntness towards parents thinking "little johnny" is better than he actually may be is BS man.

Your post above is insinuating only bubble AAA kids got passed over in lieu of the favour picks and that parents should stop wasting their money and essentially realize their kid sucks. Jacob Scarpelli, Reid Ashton, Zach Forwell, Logan Young, Giacomo Del Priore, etc. are all kids over a PPG and near the top of the scoring leaders in their respective leagues, all passed over. I’m not a parent, I have coached this age group and I know some of these kids have their own issues but don’t act like these kids don’t belong in AAA and a lot of kids with bigger issues were taken in different rounds that have bigger issues than them. Some of these parents, just like every year, have a right to be upset.

If they’re that good can’t get just try out for teams or aim for u18 draft?

Look at Alex Debrincat. He never gave up.

 

[gimbznyr]

Any chance Guelph upsets the apple cart and takes Delisle at #2?