Yeah, Holl is a long shot. I tried telling people this summer how unimpressive he was when I watched him play a bunch of times at Minnesota last year. He can't even make the top 6 defenseman of a college team. Granted, they are extremely stacked but what a terrible 2nd round pick...just like Rensfeldt. Simpson has also been brutal.
That 2010 draft is all up to Johns and Hayes IMO. Nordstrom is looking positive as well, but when you have 5 top 60 picks and you draft 3 busts like Simpson, Rensfeldt, and Holl....well, that is brutal. I do like Hayes but he is far away and needs to learn to be more of a two way player and more a team player(aka backchecking harder). He does have a lot of offensive skill though. I love Johns as well but he has been reluctant to sign with Chicago it seems. He is AHL ready now and I love watching him play. He is PERFECT for what we need right now. He is a good skater, can move the puck, is good defensively, good size and physical. He can do everything...so hopefully he continues to improve.
I never liked the Holl pick, but I'm not ready to give up on him yet. He's got a good frame and is a good skater. He's toolsy. It doesn't look good right now, but I'd like to see him in the AHL before giving up on him.
I also don't get the Simpson "bust" status. He's in his first year as a Pro. Is he lighting the world on fire in the ECHL? No.. but it's his first year as a Pro. He posted as good or better numbers than Carruth throughout their Junior careers, despite being on an awful team for the majority of his Junior career while Carruth's been on a powerhouse Portland team.
I really liked the Rensfeldt pick at the time.. but he simply didn't develope as well as he needed too. Big guy, but slight, not really physical, an average skater and didn't produce anywhere near as much as I tought he would in the OHL. However, at the time, he looked very promising. He was outstanding in the sweden's junior league and was coming off a great U-18's.
Luckily, I think both Johns and Kayes will be NHLers. Nordstrom has a chance too, as a bottom-6 forward and Mattson's been good in college thus far, but he's more of an outside chance IMO.