Eh, I think any defenseman is a long-shot. How many times has a defenseman won the Calder in the last 15 years? The only one I can think of is Leetch, but I suppose there might have been another one or two. Fact is, the award usually goes to a forward. When it goes to a defenseman, it goes to an offensive guy who puts up numbers. So forget Smid and forget Marc Staal (who probably won't make the team this year, but might). Those guys are not going to get the 40-50 points needed to merit serious contention because they don't bring that kind of offensive game.