2006-07 Vezina Trophy Revisit

[Felidae]

Taking a break from the Hart trophy, let's look at one of the Luongo vs Brodeur seasons.

It was a tight race. Brodeur narrowly won the vezina with 16 1st place votes and 14 2nd place votes to Luongo's 14 1st place and 15 2nd place votes. Interestingly enough, Luongo barely edged out Brodeur in Hart voting. (25 to 21 in favour of Luongo)

Both of them had nearly identical stats

Brodeur
GP 78 (1st)
.922 sv% (3rd)
SOG 2182 (2nd)
GSAA 36 (1st)

Luongo
GP 76 (2nd)
.921 sv% (4th)
SOG 2169 (3rd)
GSAA 35 (2nd)

And their team quality was virtually the same as well. both teams finished 5th in GA. Canucks were 22nd in GF while NJD ranked 24th.

I don't think I've seen 2 goalies with such similar individual and team stats, it's really no surprise the voting was as close as it was, and I don't think you could have gone wrong with either of them, certainly no robbery here. However, do you think Brodeur should have won over Luongo? Maybe someone else other than these 2 should have won?

Discuss.

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[JackSlater]

I'm fine with Brodeur winning. I'd say that he, Luongo, Kiprusoff, and Lundqvist were all pretty close, but Brodeur's puckhandling separates them a bit. Hasek was excellent too.

 

[Michael Farkas]

That wasn't a very good Devils roster and they didn't have Andy Greene most of the year. Brodeur finally gets a save pct.-friendly coach and folks still want someone else.

Not mentioned in the Vezina post I don't think, this is the year Brodeur broke the wins record with 48, right? He did it without a 70-point player and with Colin White and Brad Lukowich playing over 20 minutes per night.

 

[MadLuke]

From memory Luongo just above Brodeur for the Hart and Brodeur just above Luongo for the Vezina (virtualy tie) felt just perfect, the order and how close they were.

Both beating the previous wins record because of the new shootout rules, Luongo for the Hart just because of the new team effect, Canucks went to a top 5 GAA and top 3 save percentage like defense with Luongo, they were perfectly mediocre the year before (Gaa and save percentage), with 13 more points in the standing.

I think that the Brodeur performance without Niedermayer-Stevens, would have been perfectly fine to be above Luongo, but it played right to inverse them.

 

[Felidae]

So.. what's the argument for Luongo?

I agree the puckhandling puts Brodeur over the edge given how close they were statistically.

Luongo was robbed of a Vezina.. but it wasn't this year.

 

[bobholly39]

I don't have a very strong opinion on this one, one way or another. I thought Brodeur was a fine winner back then, but Luongo was close and would have been a good winner too. Voting was really close too.

The one thing I might mention is - the notion of voter fatigue. This was Brodeur's 3rd Vezina in 4 years...but the Vezina is voted by GM's, vs hockey media. I wonder if the notion of voter fatigue would have been more present if this was voted by the media, and it would have opened the door for Luongo to win instead.

 

[bobholly39]

Some suggestions for other polls for recent years;

2018 Hart
2010 Hart
2013 Hart & 2000 Harts (both a bit less compelling discussions, because it's more a question of how we assess injuries/games played for Jagr & Crosby)
1990, 1991, 1992 (especially 1992)

 

[overpass]

Although Brodeur had the higher overall SV%, Luongo had a higher SV% at EV, PP, and SH. This was an example of Simpson's paradox. The key difference was that Luongo faced almost 60% more shots than Brodeur while shorthanded.

But, as others have said, Brodeur's puckhandling was likely enough to overcome Luongo's marginal SV% advantage.

It was a different time. Both goalies played in well over 70 games. In 2006-07, Brodeur played in 14 games with 0 days of rest, i.e. back to back games, and Luongo in 7. In 2023-2024, all goalies combined played in 43 games with 0 days of rest, and I would bet most of those back-to-backs included a partial game.

Everyone knows now that goalies tend to perform worse with 0 days of rest. But in this season, the more rest Brodeur had, the lower his SV% was.

Martin Brodeur, 2006-07 regular season
0 days rest: 14 GP, 0.940 SV%
1 day rest: 34 GP: 0.921 SV%
2 days rest: 21 GP, 0.915 SV%
3 days rest: 5 GP, 0.915 SV%
4+ days rest: 4 GP, 0.904 SV%

 

[JackSlater]

So.. what's the argument for Luongo?

I agree the puckhandling puts Brodeur over the edge given how close they were statistically.

Luongo was robbed of a Vezina.. but it wasn't this year.

They were pretty close either way so it is arguable either way, but there has long been an anti-Brodeur sentiment among some. Demonstrating how smart they think they are often. Luongo would have been a good choice as well of course.

I don't have a very strong opinion on this one, one way or another. I thought Brodeur was a fine winner back then, but Luongo was close and would have been a good winner too. Voting was really close too.

The one thing I might mention is - the notion of voter fatigue. This was Brodeur's 3rd Vezina in 4 years...but the Vezina is voted by GM's, vs hockey media. I wonder if the notion of voter fatigue would have been more present if this was voted by the media, and it would have opened the door for Luongo to win instead.

Maybe, but Brodeur got the first team all star spot for goaltender (voted by the media) much more convincingly than he did the Vezina. 16 to 14 1st place votes for the Vezina, 91 to 52 first place votes for the first team all star spot.

 

[EpochLink]

Luongo had Vezina years in 2003/2004, 2006/2007, 2010/2011.

2006/2007 was probably his best year individually, being second in the hart and vezina ain’t so bad.

 

[vadim sharifijanov]

Luongo had Vezina years in 2003/2004, 2006/2007, 2010/2011.

2006/2007 was probably his best year individually, being second in the hart and vezina ain’t so bad.

he was statistically excellent in 2011 but tbh i didn’t think he was vezina-worthy that year. the other two, absolutely. 2004 i could have gone any of three ways between kiprusoff (the best goalie, but played half the number games as the other two), brodeur (the goalie who won the most), and luongo (the goalie who did the most).

2007 was definitely luongo’s best year. i remember being completely convinced at the time he should have won the vezina but i don’t see any statistical justification for it. not saying it’s not statistically justified, just that i am not seeing a convincing statistical argument that “proves” he was better than brodeur.

that canucks team had a reputation for being awful defensively, but in addition to luongo, they also added alain vigneault, who won the jack adams award, and willie mitchell, who over the next four seasons would when both were healthy team up with sami salo to form the best shutdown pair the canucks have ever had.

i think what i remember is luongo got off to a really good start. up to his first shutout as a canuck, he was 6-3-1, 2.08, .928. we canucks fans, having never had a true franchise goalie, were ecstatic.

then he had a slumpy patch. 5-7-0, 2.95, .882, including a stretch of six losses in seven games. after the goalie graveyard years, we all felt like, of course, this guy isn’t legit.

and then he gets his second shutout and never looks back. 36-12-5, 2.18, .927. leads the league in SV% from that pt on (.003 higher than brodeur in number two), tied with brodeur for most wins in four fewer games, 5th in GAA, behind goalies on teams coached by lemaire, babcock, julien, and… tom renney(!?). and maybe the most revealing stat: 261 fewer minutes played than brodeur but only five fewer saves. that year, luongo had three excellent dmen (ohlund, mitchell, salo), one adventure to say the least (bieksa in his first full year), and (oof) a bottom pair of lukas krajicek and rory fitzpatrick. and for a team with the sedins and naslund, the goal support was surprisingly pathetic: only 11 goals more than the devils (one goal every seven and a half games).

i just remember luongo after that rocky patch being the best stretch of goaltending i’ve ever seen in a canuck uniform (although i have to say, thatcher demko had come damn close at several pts). not to take anything away from brodeur’s excellent year (sidenote: did we ever figure out what happened with lamoriello firing julien with three games left in the year?) but it really does feel like the vezina was decided on brodeur’s one extra win.