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Pre-Game Talk: 1st Round - Battle of Ontario - Toronto Maple Leafs vs Ottawa Senators

Just based on the regular season, Toronto has to be favored. But anyone who is being completely unbiased has to admit this series should be very close.

As with every series, it will come down to goaltending; i have to admit, I'm a little nervous about which Ullmark will show up.

I feel like T.O. is deeper on the blueline but we are deeper up front. I'm wondering if our young, inexperienced D will hold up under pressure.

Either way, this series should be very close and would not surprise in the least if Ottawa takes it.
 
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frightenedinmatenum2 said:
I haven't seen any mainstream analysts mention this.

We had a VERY bad start. But there was a lot of baggage. A large chunk of the team was turned over in the summer. We had a new coach, and systems don't get instituted and bought into overnight. There was also some off ice turmoil with the "soft tampering", etc.

The team has shown some major signs of inconsistency, where they will have a terrible game or two. Not just a loss, but games like Buffalo blowing them out a few months ago. So I'm not saying they are a perfect professional group that is ready to burn down a village, but they are also a lot better than WC2 would suggest.

You also have to keep in mind that while they had an easy schedule based on strength of opponents, the actual layout of that schedule was very difficult due to WJC being in Ottawa combined with the 4NF break.

I don't want to jynx it by putting out a prediction. But there is a certain outcome that wouldn't shock me that if someone suggested it on a mainstream panel would probably light Twitter on fire.
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I thought I heard that the Senators had the 2nd best record since January (might have been February?). I thought they said the Blues were first. I think it was a Senators (Jamie McLellan) game broadcast though, so maybe that doesn’t count as mainstream analysts.
 
We have to exploit the Leafs mental fragility and relative lack of depth. If we put the Grieg - Pinto - Amadio line on their top guns, it creates a mismatch down the lineup we can exploit.

The sens also have grit on every line, the leafs do not.

Guys like Grieg need to channel their inner Brandan Gallagher and just slam into the goalie anytime they can. the whole toolkit opens up.

And the hardcore pests like Brady and Cousins need to bait the leafs into stupid penalties, so that we can get that hot PP to keep firing.

Those are your Fat Bastard Burrito ingredients for a win
 
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Gil Gunderson said:
Green isn’t going to take Gaudette out of the line-up for Hodgson. It’s non-negotiable.
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There’s a lot of players on the team. It's been said many times in the past, your best players have to be your best players. So, there’s other more important things to wonder or worry about.
 
BondraTime said:
Not sure any should.

This core has never been to the playoffs, and is without a doubt the underdogs on talent alone

It would be a very, very surprising outcome for the Sens to come out on top
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Toronto had 11 more points than Ottawa (108 to 97), which indicates Toronto is better; however, Ottawa beat the Leafs 4 times this past season and lost 0 games to them:

SCORE Shots For Shots Against
5-3 32 35
3-0 41 27
2-1 23 29
4-2 25 23

Toronto has playoff experience - but that experience was as a losing team, so perhaps they should be very hungry to win and willing to do what is required (but they have a rep for losing and they lose for a reason).

Ottawa does not have playoff experience - and has a lot of losing experiences, so they will be very hungry to win but it unclear if the team has what it takes to win in the playoffs. We do have Tkachuk who is a major force and leader who could make a difference.

I think the result will be closer than most people think and the 12 favouring the Leafs versus 1 favouring the Senators in the poll is lop-sided because this is Ottawa's first playoff appearance.

I think the series will be close and the odds are about 50/50.
 
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Gil Gunderson said:
Green isn’t going to take Gaudette out of the line-up for Hodgson. It’s non-negotiable.
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AGREED!

Gaudette GP 81 G 19 A 7 PTS 26. +12
Highmore GP 41 G 2 A 4 PTS 6. -5
Hodgson might only play if the leafs try to run our team out of the rink.
 
Cosmix said:
Will he be on the bench or in the balcony?
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should only be in the balcony but these coaches cant help themselves sometimes

if he plays a regular shift in any game and our 4th line doesnt score i will genuinely be upset
 
I still can't believe this is real. 8 years out, and now we are facing an arch nemesis from 20 years ago?

When I first started watching hockey, it was 05-06 and the remnants of those series were still lingering strong. But that was also the beginning of the leafs' 10-year incompetence.

When the leafs became a consistent playoff threat in 16-17, I felt the inevitable had finally arrived - we would play these sad laffs in the playoffs.

I don't think anyone expected we would have our own prolonged stretch of misery - punctuated by EK leaving the way he did.

So it's remarkable that after the consistent stretch of contested series' against this team over 20 years ago - and everything else in between - we are finally back.

Let's get it done for Alfie boys.
 
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BondraTime said:
Not sure any should.

This core has never been to the playoffs, and is without a doubt the underdogs on talent alone

It would be a very, very surprising outcome for the Sens to come out on top
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What's better? No track record versus the most unenviable track in the league ?

Since Dec 1 Ottawa is t8 in points percent
Since Jan 1 10th
Since Feb 1 8th
Since March 1 3rd

We've been a top 10 team for 60 games.

You're the guy talking up Chabot. I think we've got the two best D in this series. Sanderson and Chabot as pair anchors look good.

Ullmark versus Stolarz. I don't think there's a solid case there either way.

Toronto's top 4 Fs > Ottawa's top 4 Fs and normally that would be a huge advantage. In this instance, there's the unenviable track record.

Ottawa's bottom 8 Fs > Toronto's 8 Fs.

Toronto's big 4 outscored our top 4 by 40+ goals. The rest of the roster in Toronto was outscored by the rest of ottawa by 18 goals. And I think our goal scoring was strengthened.

There's less PP chances. The big 4 never get it done and there isn't a lot of bite in those dogs.

Sens are underdogs for sure. But I won't be at all surprised if we win.
 
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Karl Eriksson said:
We have to exploit the Leafs mental fragility and relative lack of depth. If we put the Grieg - Pinto - Amadio line on their top guns, it creates a mismatch down the lineup we can exploit.

The sens also have grit on every line, the leafs do not.

Guys like Grieg need to channel their inner Brandan Gallagher and just slam into the goalie anytime they can. the whole toolkit opens up.

And the hardcore pests like Brady and Cousins need to bait the leafs into stupid penalties, so that we can get that hot PP to keep firing.

Those are your Fat Bastard Burrito ingredients for a win
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No to the Greig suggestion to hit the goaltender. That would lead to penalties and goals against. The Leafs have more goal scoring ability than we do so we will have to play smart and stay out of the penalty box to negate their power play.

The only physically tough players we have are Tkachuk and Hodgson. That is a weakness on the Senators.

In order to win we need to play a solid 200 foot defensive game in all 3 zones including forechecking in the O zone, back checking with pressure on the puck-carrier in the N zone, and close coverage in our D zone. Must hustle all the time; no lazy skating and line changes. Need to take the man at all times and hit when the opportunity arises. Must play smart and stay out of the penalty box (no holding, tripping, hooking from behind, etc.).
 
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It'll be interesting to see how the line matching goes. Berube has been using the Matthews line to go against the other teams top line. So if we put out the Stutzle line for the opening draw in Toronto with Sanderson/Zub out on D, TO using the Matthews line will almost be a wash. We'll try to get Pinto out there on the fly as much as possible against Matthews on the fly, and against the Tavares line when possible as well.

Overall I think Ottawa has an advantage here. If they're able to keep the score close to even against TO's top 6 using the Stu and Pinto groups, then it's these 2 lines that could make a huge difference:

Perron-Cozens-Batherson
Cousins-Gaudette-Zetterlund

Vs

Robertson-Holmberg-McMann
Lorentz-Laughton-Jarnkrok

Toronto is expected to win this series but I think they absolutely need their top 4 to not be what they have been in past playoffs in order to win. If all 4 of those guys play a solid series and produce like they can, then they will win. And this could be the year it comes together. Is anyone anywhere confident of that though?
 
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