1OA 2025

[Kingpin794]

Don't think I ever claimed that.

There are examples from every country of being under-drafted in a way they wouldn't be if they were Canadian.

Players being left out of the NHL for not being Canadian is the logical conclusion of the ideas you've brought up is it not?

Look, I can appreciate your passion towards a perceived injustice within the sport you love. BUT this righteous indignation you have would be much better served if it was aimed at REAL issues that effect who gets into the pro ranks of hockey. I can guarantee you the sport is missing out on star players because some of them can't afford to play, they get bullied out of the sport for being in a marginalized group, etc etc. Its not going to be because they aren't Canadian.

People with this type of conspiratorial thinking want to be Batman and save the day. Be the harbinger of truth. Face the evil that is beset in the system...while right behind their backs they miss an actual problem. There are actual things to be upset about. Draft rankings/positions are not one of them.

 

[cupface52]

We have a system where every other country's fans believes it's unfair, except Canada. This year will be yet another example.

It used to be that it was just the Europeans. This is the year that changes that. The best player is American. He's outplayed all the Canadian challengers in the same settings all through the years. Apparently that doesn't matter because Canada wanted the first pick yet again (it'll be 7 of 8 after 2027 as they've already claimed 2026 and 2027).


7 of 8 years is really not compelling evidence because one year (where a Canadian was quite literally anointed years in advance and the media did everything they possibly could to get him drafted first) was axed at the last second by a brave team. Brilliant argument.


You mean two players that were already drafted?

Such a dishonest argument.

Pretty sure your just trolling at this point by saying something this absurd. Do you really think GMs and pro scouts care a single iota what the media says when it comes to drafting players?

Take a look at the 2018 draft, just 4 Canadians drafted in the top 15, #5, #10, #12, #13.

You keep mentioning that Misa didn't make team Canada at 17 as a knock against him, well neither did Hagens. Yes, pro scouts do look at birth year, despite a handful of posters believing otherwise.

 

[newmanager]

You mean two players that were already drafted?

Such a dishonest argument.

Not arguing. Just comparing the scoring rates for 18 year old's that recently played in the NCAA and stating the point per game pace needed by Hagens for the rest of the season to match those 18 year old's offensive output.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Yep it’s all about whining and conspiracy theorists, I just scan the posts now, don’t really read them, as it always the same excuses, with no new material,

You know it's bad when other American posters try to explain to him that there are objective reasons someone might not have Hagens first.

But apparently we're also cogs the Canadian hype machine.

 

[Mathieukferland]

Highest I’ve seen O’Brien

 

[Juxtaposer]

Not arguing. Just comparing the scoring rates for 18 year old's that recently played in the NCAA and stating the point per game pace needed by Hagens for the rest of the season to match those 18 year old's offensive output.

Didn't you know that being drafted fundamentally changes you as a person? An 18 year old who hasn't been drafted cannot possibly be compared to an 18 year old who has been drafted.

 

[frontsfan67]

 

[HeadLiceHatty]

Really wonder how many of these guys in the top 5 play in the NHL next year, will be interesting to see.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Really wonder how many of these guys in the top 5 play in the NHL next year, will be interesting to see.

I wouldn't be surprised if we saw nobody start in the NHL. Whoever takes Schaefer might want him to get in some more reps after his injury. And none of the top forwards are playing at a level that would force their teams hand.

I would be surprised if at least a few don't get games at the end of the season though. In addition to Schaefer, I would expect Hagens and Misa to get a taste.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Pretty sure your just trolling at this point by saying something this absurd. Do you really think GMs and pro scouts care a single iota what the media says when it comes to drafting players?

Take a look at the 2018 draft, just 4 Canadians drafted in the top 15, #5, #10, #12, #13.

If you don’t think the media has an affect on what happens with NHL decision makers (and that of every single sport), I don’t know what to tell you.

You keep mentioning that Misa didn't make team Canada at 17 as a knock against him, well neither did Hagens. Yes, pro scouts do look at birth year, despite a handful of posters believing otherwise.

No, you aren’t going to get away with that nonsense.

I said he didn’t make it in his draft year. I not once mentioned his age.

Misa and Hagens are only 3.5 months apart in age. Trying to compare where Hagens was when he had turned 17 one month prior to where Misa was two months from turning 18 is truly absurd.

Not arguing. Just comparing the scoring rates for 18 year old's that recently played in the NCAA and stating the point per game pace needed by Hagens for the rest of the season to match those 18 year old's offensive output.

What about draft year? Why not use that comparison?

 

[HeadLiceHatty]

I wouldn't be surprised if we saw nobody start in the NHL. Whoever takes Schaefer might want him to get in some more reps after his injury. And none of the top forwards are playing at a level that would force their teams hand.

I would be surprised if at least a few don't get games at the end of the season though. In addition to Schaefer, I would expect Hagens and Misa to get a taste.

Probably right, I really thought Hagens was going to go 1st OA at the start of the year and would def be in the NHL but seems unlikely. Schaefer was always my fav player in the draft just thought he'd drop to 3/4 somehow and some team would make out like bandits. I wouldn't risk him either, whoever drafts him isn't competing next year might as well bring him along the right way.

 

[Golden_Jet]

Really wonder how many of these guys in the top 5 play in the NHL next year, will be interesting to see.

I don’t think any of them will stick around for the year.

 

[wetcoast]

You are making my point. Canada has a lot of first picks. I agree with you it's headed for 7 of 8. Canada has already claimed 2026 and 2027. When they decide one of their players is worthy of 1OA (every single year), there's essentially nothing that can be done (takes a disastrous fall like Wright).

What do they have to show for it? Is Lafreniere looking like a 1OA player? Is Power looking like a 1OA player? Is Bedard looking anywhere near as good as hyped? I certainly don't think it's anywhere near a lock as what we were told at the draft that he'll end up the best player from 2023. We'll see with Celebrini. A decent rookie season, but I don't see him being one of the best centers in the league.

Canada has just had their two worst World Junior results in forever. They lost to Latvia. That would've seemed impossible 5 or 6 years ago. Their share of NHL players is declining every year.

The USA, on the other hand, has just won the last two World Junior tournaments. That was the first time they've ever done that. For the first time maybe ever they have what most people believe (although it's clearly close) is the best national team in the world. You can say "they don't have the 1OA's", but that's kind of the point. They have the best player this year, and he likely won't go 1OA. Bob McKenzie has announced it. This is the briefing about what to expect. But the 1OA doesn't matter. What matters is how good players are in the NHL. Lane Hutson was discriminated against and went at the end of the second round (when he was a clear first round talent, at the very least). Now he's the best player in the 2022 draft. The same thing happened with his brother. Now people are admitting he was way underdrafted, and we might be headed for the same type of situation with him.

Canada has had the first round picks and Bob McKenzie has announced about 20 first round slots for them this year. Despite that, they underperform their draft slots, and every other country seems to be over performing their draft slots. Makes you wonder about the draft process.

I guess Montreal discriminated against Hutson as well right since they took not one but two players late in the first and early in the second round over him?

Teams pick the players they think are going to turn out best for them not any conspiracy to pick Canadians it's such a nonsensical conspiracy theory.

But maybe the majority of NHL teams being American are controlled by Canadian bias too right?

 

[wetcoast]

I don’t think any of them will stick around for the year.

I think Misa could but a lot depending on which team drafts him and continued growth till next season.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

I guess Montreal discriminated against Hutson as well right since they took not one but two players late in the first and early in the second round over him?

Teams pick the players they think are going to turn out best for them not any conspiracy to pick Canadians it's such a nonsensical conspiracy theory.

But maybe the majority of NHL teams being American are controlled by Canadian bias too right?

If you want to talk about Hutson, why was he taken at the end of the second round? And theoretically much of this applies to Cole.

Lane Hutson is the same height as Connor Bedard. He has been just about as dominant at every level. Why was one anointed as the next generational player and the other picked 62nd because he's too small?

Now in hindsight, Hutson is the best player in the 2022 draft and is well on his way to being one of the best defensemen in the NHL. If only the Canadian media took a liking to him and called him a generational defenseman before he was drafted.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

If you want to talk about Hutson, why was he taken at the end of the second round? And theoretically much of this applies to Cole.

Lane Hutson is the same height as Connor Bedard. He has been just about as dominant at every level. Why was one anointed as the next generational player and the other picked 62nd because he's too small?

Now in hindsight, Hutson is the best player in the 2022 draft and is well on his way to being one of the best defensemen in the NHL. If only the Canadian media took a liking to him and called him a generational defenseman before he was drafted.

Its almost like small defenseman are a lot riskier than smallish forwards...

 

[wetcoast]

If you want to talk about Hutson, why was he taken at the end of the second round? And theoretically much of this applies to Cole.

Lane Hutson is the same height as Connor Bedard. He has been just about as dominant at every level. Why was one anointed as the next generational player and the other picked 62nd because he's too small?

It's pretty obvious that teams had questions about his size/skating projecting to the NHL and it's funny because I just don't recall those "who should the Black Hawks take #1 Bedard or Hutson" polls.

Now in hindsight, Hutson is the best player in the 2022 draft and is well on his way to being one of the best defensemen in the NHL. If only the Canadian media took a liking to him and called him a generational defenseman before he was drafted.

Also no one is taking Huston over Bedard right now either.

There were 61 picks before Hutson went in that draft and it's funny that all 61 weren't canadians (8 of them were from the states funny that eh?) the way you keep shovelling this Canadian bias conspiracy crap.

Its almost like small defenseman are a lot riskier than smallish forwards...

Only non Canadian ones eh.

 

[newmanager]

What about draft year? Why not use that comparison?

Some of us see these kids well before any draft rankings come out. The date of September 15 is insignificant at that age. They're grouped by birth year and play with and against others of the same birth year so that's kinda how we monitor their progress.
For example: From an early age Roger McQueen, Malcolm Spence and Porter Martone grew up playing with and against Macklin Celebrini, Tij Iginla, Berkly Catton, etc.... They all have the same birth year, played in the same tournaments, entered the Program of Excellence at the same time, became eligible to play Jr Hockey at the same time and so forth. At what age do we throw out birth year and use draft year to compare their progression?
Another example is Gavin McKenna versus Michael Misa. Same age but different draft years and played against each other all their lives.
One more example is James Hagens and Cole Eiserman. Even played on the same line the last couple years.
We do expect a little more runway for late-borns compared to those born earlier in the year but even then it's not so simple. Some kids are physically mature by 16 whereas others might not even have hair down there at 20.
I think they're more comparable than not when arranged by birth year.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Some of us see these kids well before any draft rankings come out. The date of September 15 is insignificant at that age. They're grouped by birth year and play with and against others of the same birth year so that's kinda how we monitor their progress.
For example: From an early age Roger McQueen, Malcolm Spence and Porter Martone grew up playing with and against Macklin Celebrini, Tij Iginla, Berkly Catton, etc.... They all have the same birth year, played in the same tournaments, entered the Program of Excellence at the same time, became eligible to play Jr Hockey at the same time and so forth. At what age do we throw out birth year and use draft year to compare their progression?
Another example is Gavin McKenna versus Michael Misa. Same age but different draft years and played against each other all their lives.
One more example is James Hagens and Cole Eiserman. Even played on the same line the last couple years.
We do expect a little more runway for late-borns compared to those born earlier in the year but even then it's not so simple. Some kids are physically mature by 16 whereas others might not even have hair down there at 20.
I think they're more comparable than not when arranged by birth year.

Flawed logic. Compare late birthdays to late birthdays and early birthdays to early birthdays.

You’re essentially picking winners and losers beyond the raw data when you order players by age group or by draft year compared to those that aren’t born in the same segment of the year as them.

There are enough that fit into each category that there’s no reason to not compare it that way, unless you are deliberately looking for certain players to be winners and others to be losers, as I mentioned above.

 

[WarriorofTime]

If you want to talk about Hutson, why was he taken at the end of the second round? And theoretically much of this applies to Cole.

Lane Hutson is the same height as Connor Bedard. He has been just about as dominant at every level. Why was one anointed as the next generational player and the other picked 62nd because he's too small?

Now in hindsight, Hutson is the best player in the 2022 draft and is well on his way to being one of the best defensemen in the NHL. If only the Canadian media took a liking to him and called him a generational defenseman before he was drafted.

Are you for real?

Little guy defensemen get aggressively targeted on forechecks, which makes it tougher for teams to get controlled exits, they don't eat up as much space making it harder to defend downlow, they don't have as long of a reach to break up plays.

This is like why asking a Basketball Center prospect is the same height as a Point Guard so why is the Center held in lesser regard.

 

[WarriorofTime]

Some of us see these kids well before any draft rankings come out. The date of September 15 is insignificant at that age. They're grouped by birth year and play with and against others of the same birth year so that's kinda how we monitor their progress.
For example: From an early age Roger McQueen, Malcolm Spence and Porter Martone grew up playing with and against Macklin Celebrini, Tij Iginla, Berkly Catton, etc....

Everyone with a January birthday kid thinks they got the next McDavid (he was a January, just coincidentally) because they're more physically mature when they're like 9. Lots of "late birthday" casualties and near-casualties because they get cut from the Pre-Bantam ages and then are out of "the system" earlier on. The kids who make it through the system deserve some credit because they really had a big disadvantage when relative age is at it strongest.

And then they get "negged" come Draft Year without fail because they're "a whole year older" and that "hockey is all about birth year", which is wrong. Minor and Junior Hockey are all about birth year. NHL Draft is about September 15 cutoff, and kids don't just magically discover they're drafted. Everyone who is anyone knows their draft year and will structure their planning around that. I wouldn't knee-jerk compare an 07 in their draft year to an 07 in the year before their draft year, especially as you operate outside of the Major Junior umbrella.

Then once they're 18 on September 15th, the age cutoff no longer matters. Just for how many more world juniors you can play and if you are allowed to play in the AHL if you were drafted out of the major junior leagues.

Notably, there is zero statistical evidence that late-birthday in a year draft picks perform worse than the ones born in the beginning 70 % of a year (and then flip those as far as the "draft" year with the "late birthdays" being early within the draft cycle). At that point, relative age effect has likely gone away. Of course at the extremes you can point out that yes, Matt Schaefer is 10.5 months younger than Porter Martone. Without fail, some people will be like "I dunno about this Draisaitl kid, he's a '95 in the draft that's mostly '96s, Sam Bennett had a much better 'Aged 17' season so I'd go with him". It never really means anything, yet people convince themselves it does.

 

[cupface52]

Everyone with a January birthday kid thinks they got the next McDavid (he was a January, just coincidentally) because they're more physically mature when they're like 9. Lots of "late birthday" casualties and near-casualties because they get cut from the Pre-Bantam ages and then are out of "the system" earlier on. The kids who make it through the system deserve some credit because they really had a big disadvantage when relative age is at it strongest.

And then they get "negged" come Draft Year without fail because they're "a whole year older" and that "hockey is all about birth year", which is wrong. Minor and Junior Hockey are all about birth year. NHL Draft is about September 15 cutoff, and kids don't just magically discover they're drafted. Everyone who is anyone knows their draft year and will structure their planning around that. I wouldn't knee-jerk compare an 07 in their draft year to an 07 in the year before their draft year, especially as you operate outside of the Major Junior umbrella.

Then once they're 18 on September 15th, the age cutoff no longer matters. Just for how many more world juniors you can play and if you are allowed to play in the AHL if you were drafted out of the major junior leagues.

Notably, there is zero statistical evidence that late-birthday in a year draft picks perform worse than the ones born in the beginning 70 % of a year (and then flip those as far as the "draft" year with the "late birthdays" being early within the draft cycle). At that point, relative age effect has likely gone away. Of course at the extremes you can point out that yes, Matt Schaefer is 10.5 months younger than Porter Martone. Without fail, some people will be like "I dunno about this Draisaitl kid, he's a '95 in the draft that's mostly '96s, Sam Bennett had a much better 'Aged 17' season so I'd go with him". It never really means anything, yet people convince themselves it does.

And if the NHL decided to move back the draft by a year in say 5 years, there would be no magical September 15 cutoff date. This whole late birthday thing wouldn't even be a conversation. '05 would get compared with '05, regardless of month. Hagens would be getting drafted this year, Misa would be getting drafted next year along with McKenna.

Some of us see these kids well before any draft rankings come out. The date of September 15 is insignificant at that age. They're grouped by birth year and play with and against others of the same birth year so that's kinda how we monitor their progress.
For example: From an early age Roger McQueen, Malcolm Spence and Porter Martone grew up playing with and against Macklin Celebrini, Tij Iginla, Berkly Catton, etc.... They all have the same birth year, played in the same tournaments, entered the Program of Excellence at the same time, became eligible to play Jr Hockey at the same time and so forth. At what age do we throw out birth year and use draft year to compare their progression?
Another example is Gavin McKenna versus Michael Misa. Same age but different draft years and played against each other all their lives.
One more example is James Hagens and Cole Eiserman. Even played on the same line the last couple years.
We do expect a little more runway for late-borns compared to those born earlier in the year but even then it's not so simple. Some kids are physically mature by 16 whereas others might not even have hair down there at 20.
I think they're more comparable than not when arranged by birth year.

Not sure why this is so hard for some to understand, especially that last part.

 

[ijif]

If you want to talk about Hutson, why was he taken at the end of the second round? And theoretically much of this applies to Cole.

Lane Hutson is the same height as Connor Bedard. He has been just about as dominant at every level. Why was one anointed as the next generational player and the other picked 62nd because he's too small?

Now in hindsight, Hutson is the best player in the 2022 draft and is well on his way to being one of the best defensemen in the NHL. If only the Canadian media took a liking to him and called him a generational defenseman before he was drafted.

Some posters have already pointed to a difference between being a forward and a defender, and I would agree, but Hutson was never as dominate as Bedard.

Scoring 2.5 PPG in the CHL as a U18 player means you are more or less a lock to be an impact player. Outside of the QMJHL, only five players have ever scored at that rate in the CHL. Those players are Gretzky, McDavid, Lindros, Bedard, and Brown. For completion, the players from the QMJHL would be LaFontaine, Cloutier, Lemieux, Hawerchuk, Crosby, Chouniard, Turgeon, and Diagle. Every person listed had a good career. The player with the worst production was Diagle at 327 PTS in 616 GP. The lesser known players, like Chouniard still did good in the NHL. He had 575 PTS in 578 GP. One forward from the USHL did score at or above 2.5 PPG as a U18 player, Steve MacSwain. He's not a great player, but even including him the sample, it is very clear that scoring 2.5 PPG in NA junior hockey as U18 player is a tremendous predictor of success.

Now, Lane Hutson does have the highest PPG ever in the USHL for a U18 defender, very impressive. The issue here is the two players closest to him are not that good. Hutson was at 1.19 PPG, and Cam York was at 1.18. Colby Cohen had a 1.13. Those are the only defenders to score more than 1.1 PPG from the USHL as U18 players. If we do the same total NA analysis for Hutson, it does not help. From the OHL alone, at least 16 players have scored 1.1 PPG as a U18 defender. From the QMJHL, I count at least 6 players, and from the OHL, I count at least 15, and all these players constitute a group that is much more of mixed bag than the forward group.

What I am trying to say is that scoring 1.1 PPG or more as a U18 defender in junior hockey as a defender is good, but does not predict success like scoring 2.5 PPG as U18 forward. I know that I used seasons spanning many decades, but the analysis would hold restricting the time range to only more modern seasons, so even ignoring any positional or nationality discussion, Hutson never dominated like Bedard. Taking into account DY-X seasons and international performances would further strengthen this argument.