1999-2000 Pronger, last Dman to win the HART- Can Quinn Hughes end the Dman Hart drought this year

[Rowlet]

I get it in general. (Also not plugging Makar or bashing Hughes with this post.) not a great stat to use at the moment as Colorado has the worst group of forwards in the league currently behind the MacKinnon line until guys come back from injury. They played a Dman who was normally a healthy scratch, and their 7th round pick in this year's draft on their lineup together recently.

Yeah, that was the point, the argument has been that Makar makes the players around him better, but it's Hughes that still has great numbers without the Canucks top two lines. If you want, here's Hughes with ONLY the Canucks 4th line on the ice:

CF: 62%
FF: 57%
xGF: 64.38%
HDCF: 63.64

How about stats relative to their team at 5v5? Since the Avs are badly injured this one should massively benefit Makar...

Hughes:
CFRel: +20.1%
FFRel: +21%

Makar:
CFRel: +0.1%
FFRel: -0.2%

EDIT:

Here's Girard without MacKinnon:

Here's Calvin DeHaan:

Seems like they're doing pretty good when MacKinnon isn't on the ice.

Was talking about the second part of the message, not the first part

My bad, though I've posted the proof before but I get slapped on the wrist every time for flaming

 

[Bank Shot]

Makar in 2022 was better defensively than Hughes was last year, no argument from me, but Makar has gotten statistically worse defensively every year since then. We're talking this year, not 3 years ago.

Why are you dodging the main point of the post?

Quinn Hughes is used to produce offensive against lesser matchups.

Typically the best two way defencemen in the NHL, play against the other team's best as much as the coach can get them out there.

Pronger could shutdown the other team's top forwards AND provide offense.

You aren't comparing the same things.

If Quinn Hughes is the defensive stud you are trying to sell him as, why isn't he being utilized like one?

 

[Rowlet]

Why are you dodging the main point of the post?

Quinn Hughes is used to produce offensive against lesser matchups.

Typically the best defencemen in the NHL, play against the other team's best as much as the coach can get them out there.

Pronger could shutdown the other team's top forwards AND provide offense.

You aren't comparing the same things.

If Quinn Hughes is the defensive stud you are trying to sell him as, why isn't he being utilized like one?

Alright, in 2022, here's Makar's quality of competition:

and here's Hughes this year:

Hughes smashes Makar's numbers relative to the rest of his team (Avs were an adv stat juggernaut that season compared to the Canucks this year), and one playoff round is a small sample size.

Makar played against elite talent 3% more that season, however he also played against the lowest end of talent nearly 10% more. 62.4% of Makar's ice time was against elite or middle competition. This season, Hughes' ice time against elite and middle competition is 72%.

As to why the Canucks may have opted to play Hughes less against McDavid, I'm not the coach, but when you compare seasons, it appears Hughes is playing against way less easy competition than Makar did in 2022 while looking much better doing so.

 

[Bank Shot]

Alright, in 2022, here's Makar's quality of competition:

View attachment 929221

and here's Hughes this year:

View attachment 929222

Hughes smashes Makar's numbers relative to the rest of his team (Avs were an adv stat juggernaut that season compared to the Canucks this year), and one playoff round is a small sample size.

Makar played against elite talent 3% more that season, however he also played against the lowest end of talent nearly 10% more. 62.4% of Makar's ice time was against elite or middle competition. This season, Hughes' ice time against elite and middle competition is 72%.

As to why the Canucks may have opted to play Hughes less against McDavid, I'm not the coach, but when you compare seasons, Hughes is playing against way less easy competition than Makar did in 2022 while looking much better doing so.

You dismiss a playoff round as a small sample size and then compare a whole season to 13 games.

Pretty wild stuff.

 

[LemonSauceD]

You dismiss a playoff round as a small sample size and then compare a whole season to 13 games.

Pretty wild stuff.

You completely ignored like 80% of his posts. It’s straight up denial.

 

[Rowlet]

You dismiss a playoff round as a small sample size and then compare a whole season to 13 games.

Pretty wild stuff.

Yeah dude, so far, that's the point of the thread.

Here's last year. Hughes still played against over 71% middle and elite competition while doing much better relative to his team.

 

[Bank Shot]

You completely ignored like 80% of his posts. It’s straight up denial.

Its denial coming from one side alright.

When did you ever see Pronger on the bench for an important defensive zone draw?

Quinn Hughes' ice time is managed in a way that juices his possession numbers.

It's not what we saw from the last defenceman that won the Hart.

If you aren't the number one defensive option on your own team as a defenceman, how can you be the MVP?

 

[vadim sharifijanov]

No shot

no he worked on his shot, it’s good now

 

[Sanderson]

To win the hart as a dman these days you probably gotta finish top 5 in NHL scoring and not have a runaway forward scorer. So if Makar finished 5th with 110 points and the 4 forwards above him had like 125 122 115 112.

This is basically it.

Pronger barely eaked out a win in what was a very mediocre years in regard to forwards. Jagr missed 19 games and somehow still won the Art Ross. A few games more and the Hart is his.
On top of that, Hasek missed half the season, so there was no dominant goalie either.

So you had a very strong performance from Pronger on both sides of the ice, being instrumental in winning his team the President's Trophy, while the only real challenger was a forward who missed about a quarter of the season.

As long as the offensive output that can be seen by the best players is the way it is right now, it will be very hard for any defensemen to win the Hart. You need low output from the scoring leaders (compared to the surrounding years) and goalies not being particularly outstanding either.

 

[The Gr8 Dane]

J fresh nerds will love this thread

 

[benfranklin]

This was all used as arguments against Hughes' for a Hart/Norris last season, that he was offence only while Makar was better defensively (he wasn't) so it's extremely funny that Hughes 120+pt pace is proof that he's Karlsson while Makar's is proof that he's generational, despite Hughes actually being much better defensively over the past 2 seasons. Wild that his lack of offense is now a knock against him.

But again, Makar doesn't really matter in this because Hughes wouldn't be competing with him, he'd be competing with MacKinnon.

Per our old pal NatStat at 5v5:

Hughes:

CF: 63.82%
FF: 62.87%
SF: 63.1%
GF: 69.57%
xG: 65.85%
SCF: 66.38%
HDCF: 64%
HDGF: 76.92%
OZ1F: 63.16%

MacKinnon:

CF: 61.73%
FF: 62.32%
SF: 63.49%
GF: 63.79%
xG: 65.53%
SCF: 68.13%
HDCF: 68.57%
HDGF: 55%
OZF: 72.94%

I went and highlighted the better number, looks like Hughes and MacKinnon are actually pretty close statistically when you consider the raw numbers, but Natural Stat Trick doesn't track Relative numbers, so here they are from HockeyReference:

Hughes:

CFRel: +20.1%
FFRel: +21%

MacKinnon:
CFRel: +2%
FFRel: +4%

Interesting that despite all of the Avalanche's struggles, MacKinnon's possession metrics aren't that much better relative to the rest of the team, you'd think that with the Avs being bad and seriously injured, that wouldn't be the case, but he's still having a hard time. Hughes on the other hand is probably the best possession player in the league.

and as per PuckIQ, Hughes is doing better against a higher quality of competition than MacKinnon is, relative to his team, a stat that should only help MacKinnon because of how badly injured their forwards are:

View attachment 929208

View attachment 929209

I thought I blocked you. Doing that now. Your obsession with Hughes and Makar is disturbing.

 

[crowi]

Neither Makar or Hughes is winning the Hart unless top forwards have a spectacularly bad year. These JFresh dogshit charts etc change nothing.

 

[Regal]

Its denial coming from one side alright.

When did you ever see Pronger on the bench for an important defensive zone draw?

Quinn Hughes' ice time is managed in a way that juices his possession numbers.

It's not what we saw from the last defenceman that won the Hart.

If you aren't the number one defensive option on your own team as a defenceman, how can you be the MVP?

Hughes is played into the ground when the team is holding leads. The idea that his ice time is managed positively in any way other than the fact he doesn’t PK is complete nonsense

 

[benfranklin]

Hughes is played into the ground when the team is holding leads. The idea that his ice time is managed positively in any way other than the fact he doesn’t PK is complete nonsense

Go look up his zone starts and advanced stats without Petterson and/or Miller. He gets sheltered starts and gets caved in. And not playing PK compared to Cale who does, doesnt help his cause.

Neither Makar or Hughes is winning the Hart unless top forwards have a spectacularly bad year. These JFresh dogshit charts etc change nothing.

Makar is on pace for 132 points. Obviously Im guessing he will regress or do his magical miss 10-15 games throughout the season per usual, but IF he gets that 132 points, he is 1000000% winning the Hart and Norris.

 

[Regal]

Last year in the playoffs against the Oilers, Hughes was playing second pairing minutes against Mcdavid. Tyler Myers had almost twice the icetime.

Compare that to Makar vs Mcdavid in 2022. Makar played twice as many minutes against McDavid than the next pairing did.

If you have an all around stud, why isn't he going head to head against the best as much as possible?

Context in stats is important.

Last year, Hughes played more minutes in the playoffs at ES against McDavid than he did against any other forward, and also had a positive corsi, expected goals and outscored him 2-1 when on the ice together.

Soucy and Myers played McDavid more, but Hughes is needed to play with all the lines to give some semblance of a transition game.

Go look up his zone starts and advanced stats without Petterson and/or Miller. He gets sheltered starts and gets caved in. And not playing PK compared to Cale who does, doesnt help his cause.

Makar is on pace for 132 points. Obviously Im guessing he will regress or do his magical miss 10-15 games throughout the season per usual, but IF he gets that 132 points, he is 1000000% winning the Hart and Norris.

Wtf are you talking about? No he doesn’t.

Last 3 years, not including this one, with neither Miller or Pettersson on the ice, he had a 49.5% offensive zone start percentage, a 51.9% CF% and a 53.2 GF%.

 

[Czechboy]

Way too early
You'd think he was at least first in d scoring to start this convo
He is amazing dman and top tier for sure. I won't lie.. I prefer Makar over him though.
Are we all sleeping on Josh Morrissey.. barely mentioned and he's second on scoring and isn't a minus player (like Makar). Yes I know plus minus is flawed.

 

[benfranklin]

Wtf are you talking about? No he doesn’t

Quinn doesnt get sheltered o zone starts? Or Cale doesnt win with 132 points?

I can post the stats showing the sheltered zone starts, but obviously the Cale part is opinion based.

 

[Regal]

Quinn doesnt get sheltered o zone starts? Or Cale doesnt win with 132 points?

I can post the stats showing the sheltered zone starts, but obviously the Cale part is opinion based.

Post em because I have zero clue what you’re talking about. Last three years before this one he has an under 50% offensive zone start percentage away from them. Unless you’re using irrelevant date going back to his rookie year

https://www.naturalstattrick.com/linestats.php?fromseason=20212022&thruseason=20232024&stype=2&sit=5v5&score=all&rate=n&team=VAN&vteam=ALL&view=wowy&loc=B&gpfilt=none&fd=2021-10-12&td=2024-11-11&tgp=2000&strict=incl&p1=8480800&p2=8480012&p3=8476468&p4=0&p5=0

 

[Rowlet]

I thought I blocked you. Doing that now. Your obsession with Hughes and Makar is disturbing.

You responded to me, if you don't want to engage with me I'm not forcing you to.

 

[Romang67]

I thought we were done with offensive zone start discussions like 8 years ago.

Last year, Makar was the D-man with the largest discrepancy between offensive zone starts and defensive zone starts in the league. He started 20% of his shifts in the offensive zone, and about 10% in the defensive zone.

I don't know how you can watch hockey and not realize that the vast majority of a player's shifts 5v5 start on the fly. For a D-man, that means they invariably start either after a dump in, or while your team is entering the zone.

 

[eviohh26]

Quinn doesnt get sheltered o zone starts? Or Cale doesnt win with 132 points?

I can post the stats showing the sheltered zone starts, but obviously the Cale part is opinion based.

Please post them. I'll wait.

 

[benfranklin]

Post em because I have zero clue what you’re talking about. Last three years before this one he has an under 50% offensive zone start percentage away from them. Unless you’re using irrelevant date going back to his rookie year

https://www.naturalstattrick.com/linestats.php?fromseason=20212022&thruseason=20232024&stype=2&sit=5v5&score=all&rate=n&team=VAN&vteam=ALL&view=wowy&loc=B&gpfilt=none&fd=2021-10-12&td=2024-11-11&tgp=2000&strict=incl&p1=8480800&p2=8480012&p3=8476468&p4=0&p5=0

Attached is the last 3 years for each of Hughes, Makar, Fox, and Bouchard.

Hughes is the only one that increased in O zone starts without his superstar forwards out there and shocker all of his advanced stats went up with it and no shock he had his best year ever. Obviously he still has to produce given those opportunities and he did, but that is the definition of sheltered O zone starts.

 

[Regal]

Attached is the last 3 years for each of Hughes, Makar, Fox, and Bouchard.

Hughes is the only one that increased in O zone starts without his superstar forwards out there and shocker all of his advanced stats went up with it and no shock he had his best year ever. Obviously he still has to produce given those opportunities and he did, but that is the definition of sheltered O zone starts.

Um, what exactly are you reading? This shows the opposite of what you’re saying. You’re aware the lower the number the fewer the offensive zone starts right? His lowest percentage in all three years is without either in the ice…

Wait, is your argument that his O zone starts without them went up last year compared to his previous years while the others went down? That has nothing to do with being sheltered unless you’re arguing that the other two were sheltered in the previous years since their previous numbers were similar. Hughes’ numbers without them went up last year because the bottom 6 was much better because the Garland-Joshua line was the team’s best line for a large chunk of the year, and Pettersson was ass for the last 30 games. As mentioned above, zone starts aren’t a good proxy for sheltering since the majority of shifts are on the fly. More offensive zone starts would mostly just suggest the lines were doing better at possession, so you’re trying to claim that the starts affected the possession but it’s actually the opposite.

 

[David Bruce Banner]

Love Hughes... respect Makar... but neither they, or any other defenceman, is going to get a sniff of the Hart so long as the likes of McDavid, Kucherov and MacKinnon are healthy.
And once those forwards start aging out, then guys like Bedard and Celebrini will be hitting their stride.

 

[authentic]

Pronger won at the perfect time
Lemieux and Gretz were both out of the game

Only players challenging was Lindros and Jagr

Few years later of course Crosby and Malkin came into the picture

Well the reason Pronger won is because Jagr played 60 games, otherwise the Hart was his that year.