1997 Rangers - a good indicator of what the Oilers core could have done if not broken up?

[DitchMarner]

Say Pocklington never runs into financial problems and doesn't trade Gretzky and the core of the Oilers Dynasty stays together until Gretzky and Messier retire - could the team have remained competitive into the mid 90s or early Dead Puck era? How many more Cups would have been won?

Gretzky and Kurri helped the Kings to an SCF appearance in 1993. Coffey also played for LA during the '93 season.

A year later, the Rangers won the Cup with Messier, Tikkanen and Anderson playing for the team in the playoffs.

In 1997 the Rangers were led in scoring by Gretzky and Messier, who were 36 by then. They reached the third round of the playoffs. Tikkanen joined the team for the playoffs. The Rangers got through two teams embodying the Dead Puck Era (FLA and NJ) without too much difficulty before succumbing to the Flyers (another team emblematic of that time period). That team didn't have Coffey but did have a prime Brian Leetch.

It seems unlikely the Oilers core would have remained relevant by '98, but between '89 and '97, how much more success could that core (and especially the duo of Gretzky and Messier) have had?

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[VanIslander]

I'm sorry but i can't go there.
I had graduated high school and was about to go to uni when Gretzky was traded to L.A. (only his wife smiled; every other one of us cried). It ruined our vacay in the Shuswaps. It'll always be 'too soon'.

Gretzky wasn't even one of my top-5 fav players then (now not top 10). But he was Gretz. And watching him made your heart sing. He was something different.

 

[Bear of Bad News]

You disagree with the premise because your summer vacation was ruined?

 

[VanIslander]

I dont give a freckle off my forearm about my summer vacay.

The devastation felt from the news made a week at the beach into... a less than relaxing getaway. There was no internet. But newspapers and word of mouth got us bothered. Ugh. We cancelled plans because of it. It was the most significant non-Stanley Cup victory event i recall until the announcement of the NHL's first Olympic team in late 1997!

The POINT IS: we were hurt greatly. My friends were bigger Oiler fans than i but we all FELT a great loss. It was supposed to be our last hoorah before college but the news was a debbie downer. We all went home two days early (except Mike, as his uncle paid for the week and he didn't want to disappoint his family by not using the site the whole time).

 

[Staniowski]

I'm a firm believer that the Oilers, if they'd been able to keep everybody (or most), would've won multiple more Cups, and maybe a bunch more. Gretzky and Messier at C is unprecedented. When Gretzky famously said, "Gawd, I played on a great hockey team", he was absolutely right.

Of course it depends if Coffey is traded, and whatever else, but in addition to the unbelievable core from the early '80s, they added Tikkanen, Smith, MacTavish mid-decade, very important pieces, and their drafting would've been different, and maybe more free agents, so likely some more good players (players would want to play in Edmonton).

So, it depends....on various things....but they would have been great.

 

[JackSlater]

Edmonton clearly would have been a threat through the mid 90s. New York won the Stanley Cup in 1994 with Messier and a ton of Oilers in depth spots. Los Angeles made the finals the year before with Gretzky, Kurri, and McSorley in big roles. Coffey deservedly won the Norris in 1995. It's possible things get very stale with the same players for that long and there wasn't a strong push from beneath with Edmonton's drafting, but you'd have to think that they win at least one more Stanley Cup in a conservative estimate.

 

[VanIslander]

Edmonton clearly would have been a threat through the mid 90s.

To be clear - post Gretzky - the 1990s started with an Edmonton Oilers Stanley Cup victory and immediately followed by two conference finals runs... though mid decade was... mid... two 2nd round runs ensued.

So,... chalk one more cup at least, maybe two. And with counterfactual what-if dynamics, maybe more.

But we will never know cuz that fffffffffffffun-stopping owner in Edmonton... ended the fun.

 

[The Panther]

I personally think -- going forward from the late 80s onward -- the Oilers were probably better-off without Paul Coffey. Having both Gretzky and Coffey (or Lemieux and Coffey) on the same team can work, but it's risky, and going into a lower-scoring, more defensively responsible League, you don't really need a Coffey if the club has enough top forwards. (Also Simpson, before injured, was a very good and playoff-ready forward.)

Anyway, aside from that point, it's clear that the Oilers' core could have remained competitive up to spring 1994, anyway. Anderson was kind of done by about 1991 -- still had some good playoff moments in 1993 and 1994, mind -- and Fuhr's personal issues kind of did him in during that c.1991 to 1995 period when he basically sucked (yet won a Jennings... thanks, Dominik!). I could see one or both of those guys being traded, regardless of the club's financial situation.

Beyond 1994, though, I think the club would have had a hard time winning against the younger competition unless it had drafted a lot better than it actually did. The Oilers' drafting from around 1983 to 1992 was legendarily awful.

 

[connellc]

Couple things that would have been interesting is that Oilers drafting was horrific, especially on defense, so I think with all those playoff runs, their "D" would have been pretty beat up and tired. Remember, they made the long playoff runs from 1983-1993. Look at what they would have to work with in the 1990's

1.Coffey
2. Lowe
3. Huddy
4. Buekeboom
5. Steve Smith
6. Craig Muni
7. Geoff Smith
8. a young Chris Joseph

***zero defense prospects in the system either***


With the explosion of salaries, and winning multiple cups, would the Oilers be able to afford other teams throwing money at those stars? There's no way the Rangers (who had a cup drought), or the Red Wings would have sat on their hands and not try to make offers.


The brutality of the NHL was also in full force during the 1990's too, so don't think there wouldn't be more injuries etc. Plus the "trap" in 1994, and the Red Wings of 1995 got cooked by them, I'm sure the older oilers would have had trouble with it.

 

[seventieslord]

Couple things that would have been interesting is that Oilers drafting was horrific, especially on defense, so I think with all those playoff runs, their "D" would have been pretty beat up and tired. Remember, they made the long playoff runs from 1983-1993. Look at what they would have to work with in the 1990's

1.Coffey
2. Lowe
3. Huddy
4. Buekeboom
5. Steve Smith
6. Craig Muni
7. Geoff Smith
8. a young Chris Joseph

***zero defense prospects in the system either***


With the explosion of salaries, and winning multiple cups, would the Oilers be able to afford other teams throwing money at those stars? There's no way the Rangers (who had a cup drought), or the Red Wings would have sat on their hands and not try to make offers.


The brutality of the NHL was also in full force during the 1990's too, so don't think there wouldn't be more injuries etc. Plus the "trap" in 1994, and the Red Wings of 1995 got cooked by them, I'm sure the older oilers would have had trouble with it.

I don't know, that defense doesn't look too bad to me. Between 1992 and 1995, each of those guys contributed to a finals run on a non Oilers team. And in a similar spot on the depth chart too

Coffey was a #1 on Detroit in 1995
Smith was a #3 on Chicago in 1992
Beukeboom was a #3 on NYR in 1994
Lowe was a #4 on NYR in 1994
Huddy was a #5 on LA in 1993

And Muni was a kind of "embarrassment of riches on the 3rd pairing" kind of guy who was low key one of the best pure defenders in the league.

This would not be the NHL's best defense corps from 1992-1995, but I don't think it would be an Achilles heel for the Oilers or ruin their chances.

 

[DitchMarner]

With the explosion of salaries, and winning multiple cups, would the Oilers be able to afford other teams throwing money at those stars? There's no way the Rangers (who had a cup drought), or the Red Wings would have sat on their hands and not try to make offers.


The brutality of the NHL was also in full force during the 1990's too, so don't think there wouldn't be more injuries etc. Plus the "trap" in 1994, and the Red Wings of 1995 got cooked by them, I'm sure the older oilers would have had trouble with it.

You have to wonder if the trap (and clutch and grab style of hockey) would have become so popular and pervasive in general if the Oilers dynasty had been in Cup contention in the middle of the 1990s.

The Devils handled the Wings very easily in 1995 with the trap and the Panthers had success with it in 1996, but in '97 the Rangers (with Messier and Gretzky) beat both of those teams in five games. I feel that for Wayne (who was a thinking man's player), the trap may not have been as much of a problem as outright size and physicality.

 

[Staniowski]

Steve Smith was an excellent defenseman for several years, surely one one of the best defencemen to never receive a Norris vote in his career.

 

[DitchMarner]

Steve Smith was an excellent defenseman for several years, surely one one of the best defencemen to never receive a Norris vote in his career.

Unfortunately, I think he may have been more known for being the guy who scored on his own net and cost the Oilers that '86 series against CGY and a chance for a three-peat than for being a good defenseman.

 

[Staniowski]

Unfortunately, I think he may have been more known for being the guy who scored on his own net and cost the Oilers that '86 series against CGY and a chance for a three-peat than for being a good defenseman.

Yes, he's certainly remembered for that goal, and especially by younger generations who aren't otherwise familiar with him.

He was really good for the Oilers, and played very well for Team Canada in the '91 Canada Cup.

 

[The Panther]

Steve Smith was an excellent defenseman for several years, surely one one of the best defencemen to never receive a Norris vote in his career.

Agree. An all-around great defenceman of his (rough) era. His style was very "Chris Pronger", but just not as good. From around 1987 to 1992 he was one of the best in the League.

 

[Dingo]

I mean, they won one without Gretzky and Coffey. I would think if those two could stay they would have been one of the favourites in the hunt every year until somewhere in the mid 90s.

Probably would have seen a couple of Mario v Wayne Finals

 

[connellc]

I don't know, that defense doesn't look too bad to me. Between 1992 and 1995, each of those guys contributed to a finals run on a non Oilers team. And in a similar spot on the depth chart too

Coffey was a #1 on Detroit in 1995
Smith was a #3 on Chicago in 1992
Beukeboom was a #3 on NYR in 1994
Lowe was a #4 on NYR in 1994
Huddy was a #5 on LA in 1993

And Muni was a kind of "embarrassment of riches on the 3rd pairing" kind of guy who was low key one of the best pure defenders in the league.

This would not be the NHL's best defense corps from 1992-1995, but I don't think it would be an Achilles heel for the Oilers or ruin their chances.

I wasn't really implying that they were bad; it's certainly solid. it's just that Lowe, Huddy, and Coffey going through (roughly) 10 long playoff runs...would they have been able to hold up? You have to think that eventually, those guys would be targeted somewhat with little rest.

 

[Jaulie Poyce]

Woulda, coulda, shoulda!

 

[Crosby2010]

I know that it has been assumed that if Gretzky never leaves Edmonton that the Oilers could have won Cups right into the 1990s, and I think they would have. Maybe they take one away from Mario. I also think if the Pens don't get to the final in 1993 that the Habs lose to an Oilers team. The sky is the limit. Even without someone like Fuhr, you had Ranford. And maybe in an alternate universe you have Moog if he is never traded. Fuhr or not, they literally won a Cup with Ranford and Moog himself was an integral part of the dynasty. So there is no reason why these guys can't be part of contending teams well into the 1990s. They were both good goalies for a while at that time. I think they are contenders for a long time. They may not beat Detroit or Colorado once those teams step up but I think they still remain in the mix and wouldn't be an easy out. Just like the 1997 Rangers.

 

[CharlestownChiefsESC]

I've always said it's more than likely another 4 in 5.

1989- even if Gretzky and Coffey are still there I still think it was a do or die year for Calgary.
1990- Just like irl they win maybe in easier fashion and definitely have a better rs. Boston still may have home ice.
1991- That's another win vs potentially a Coffey less Pens.
1992- Coin flip here the 92 Pens had no former Oilers and a coach who wasn't afraid to utilize all 4 lines.
1993-They definitely beat Roy
1994- add Grerzky and Coffey to the 94 Rangers that's a win
1995 is where it gets intersting by this point the game was changing it is quite possible they win here.

After 95 younger teams like Detroit and Colorado finally over tale them but like in other posts they still remain competitive up until 97. I think in 98 the wheels finally fall off by then age had finally caught up to Messier and Coffey and the glory years are over.

 

[BigGoalBrad]

Oilers core would have aged great with the dead puck era and the game slowing down. Teams didn't really rely on fresh young legs but I'm sure a few would have been mixed in and the role players wouldn't all be old. You'd need toughness to get past Philly/Detroit/Colorado but they probably could have added it.

Contracts were exploding all this depends on an owner that doesn't care and spends whatever.

 

[Stephen]

Like I say, the 1980s Oilers lived on like two halves of the Roman Empire, with Gretzky's Los Angeles Kings in the West and Messier's New York Rangers in the East, and a cast of former Oilers teammates sometimes re-combining here and there on other teams.

If they kept the whole thing together, Edmonton would have been right back at it in 1989 vs Calgary, would have been a better team in 1990 when they beat Boston, and would have had enough in the tank to get out of the Campbell Conference finals in 1991 and 1992.

As a unit, the 1993 alternate universe Oilers would have had a great chance to go to the finals in the wide open west once again.

By 1994, Gretzky was still a force, winning the Art Ross with 130 points. Messier was spearheading the Rangers cup that year. Coffey was still still putting up offense at a Norris Trophy rate in 1995. While I think some decline would have been seen on that 1994 team (the lack of youthful Rangers reinforcements of Leetch,Kovalev, Richter, Zubov would have hurt).

I think by 1995 they would have been sputtering a bit and finally of their cup window, but the 1997 Rangers show us they would have at least been interesting.

 

[Nerowoy nora tolad]

I know that it has been assumed that if Gretzky never leaves Edmonton that the Oilers could have won Cups right into the 1990s, and I think they would have. Maybe they take one away from Mario. I also think if the Pens don't get to the final in 1993 that the Habs lose to an Oilers team. The sky is the limit. Even without someone like Fuhr, you had Ranford. And maybe in an alternate universe you have Moog if he is never traded. Fuhr or not, they literally won a Cup with Ranford and Moog himself was an integral part of the dynasty. So there is no reason why these guys can't be part of contending teams well into the 1990s. They were both good goalies for a while at that time. I think they are contenders for a long time. They may not beat Detroit or Colorado once those teams step up but I think they still remain in the mix and wouldn't be an easy out. Just like the 1997 Rangers.

See my issue with the idea of the Oilers contending for more than 1 cup is this:

Even if we pretend the laws of financial gravity no longer apply and all of the oilers core players stay, are happy and motivated to keep winning, and money is no object, pittsburgh, calgary, and later detroit/chicago/vancouver still exist and are coming hard for future seasons

If Gretzky stays, they beat Calgary in a 7 game war in 1989 similar to what happened in 1991 in our timeline, there is no way the Flames just fade away for 1990. The flames organization will correctly recognize that winning a cup is vital for the clubs long term survival and reload with as many upgrades as possible. As it is Im not sure a complete 1988 Oilers roster could have survived the 1989 Flames.

And that cycle will repeat with the Penguins, the Blackhawks peaking for 1991/92, eventually the Red Wings. Where exactly can you see more than 2 winnable cups in the 1989-1997 window for the 80s Oilers? If they win in 1989, theyll be relatively gassed after 3 straight cups to deal with Calgary the next year, and if they say win a 1991 final against the penguins, I think its pretty likely the Pens use that experience to win the next one.

Like I say, the 1980s Oilers lived on like two halves of the Roman Empire, with Gretzky's Los Angeles Kings in the West and Messier's New York Rangers in the East, and a cast of former Oilers teammates sometimes re-combining here and there on other teams.

If they kept the whole thing together, Edmonton would have been right back at it in 1989 vs Calgary, would have been a better team in 1990 when they beat Boston, and would have had enough in the tank to get out of the Campbell Conference finals in 1991 and 1992.

As a unit, the 1993 alternate universe Oilers would have had a great chance to go to the finals in the wide open west once again.

By 1994, Gretzky was still a force, winning the Art Ross with 130 points. Messier was spearheading the Rangers cup that year. Coffey was still still putting up offense at a Norris Trophy rate in 1995. While I think some decline would have been seen on that 1994 team (the lack of youthful Rangers reinforcements of Leetch,Kovalev, Richter, Zubov would have hurt).

I think by 1995 they would have been sputtering a bit and finally of their cup window, but the 1997 Rangers show us they would have at least been interesting.

So youre saying a messier-led locker room had byzantine politics? I suppose the Neilson coup qualifies for something the citizens of constantinople would have been familiar with.

 

[blogofmike]

If Gretzky stays, they beat Calgary in a 7 game war in 1989 similar to what happened in 1991 in our timeline, there is no way the Flames just fade away for 1990. The flames organization will correctly recognize that winning a cup is vital for the clubs long term survival and reload with as many upgrades as possible. As it is Im not sure a complete 1988 Oilers roster could have survived the 1989 Flames.

And that cycle will repeat with the Penguins, the Blackhawks peaking for 1991/92, eventually the Red Wings. Where exactly can you see more than 2 winnable cups in the 1989-1997 window for the 80s Oilers? If they win in 1989, theyll be relatively gassed after 3 straight cups to deal with Calgary the next year, and if they say win a 1991 final against the penguins, I think its pretty likely the Pens use that experience to win the next one.

It's not like the Thornton-era Sharks were able to save up their failure points and redeem them for a Cup.

Surely teams would WANT to get better. But they didn't WANT to fail in the real timeline either. And we'd be looking at the same Flames organization that didn't win a playoff round from 1990 -2004, often losing in the first round to teams led by Gretzky (90, 93) or Messier/Tikkanen (91).

But regardless of who would actually win, I'd say the Oilers are very serious contenders from 1989-91, strong contenders from 92-94, and intermittent contenders from 95-97.

A lot depends on the team around them. Gretzky, Messier and Tikkanen led a roster that was top-heavy, but fairly average overall to the 3rd round (the Rangers scored 8 goals in 15 games that Gretzky and/or Messier didn't get a point on.)

While it's uncertain that they can draft Arnott if the core stays together, given Fuhr's actual 1995, I can see them still wanting to trade 2 first rounders for Curtis Joseph (and Mike Grier) in 1995. Given Edmonton's CuJo-led playoff upsets of Dallas and Colorado, a Gretzky/Messier team might just be able to make a few runs on the Western side too.

 

[Stephen]

See my issue with the idea of the Oilers contending for more than 1 cup is this:

Even if we pretend the laws of financial gravity no longer apply and all of the oilers core players stay, are happy and motivated to keep winning, and money is no object, pittsburgh, calgary, and later detroit/chicago/vancouver still exist and are coming hard for future seasons

If Gretzky stays, they beat Calgary in a 7 game war in 1989 similar to what happened in 1991 in our timeline, there is no way the Flames just fade away for 1990. The flames organization will correctly recognize that winning a cup is vital for the clubs long term survival and reload with as many upgrades as possible. As it is Im not sure a complete 1988 Oilers roster could have survived the 1989 Flames.

And that cycle will repeat with the Penguins, the Blackhawks peaking for 1991/92, eventually the Red Wings. Where exactly can you see more than 2 winnable cups in the 1989-1997 window for the 80s Oilers? If they win in 1989, theyll be relatively gassed after 3 straight cups to deal with Calgary the next year, and if they say win a 1991 final against the penguins, I think its pretty likely the Pens use that experience to win the next one.

So youre saying a messier-led locker room had byzantine politics? I suppose the Neilson coup qualifies for something the citizens of constantinople would have been familiar with.

I’m not awarding the Oilers all those cups but their percentage at victory creeps up, no? And if the old core is kept together they avoid the post 1993 nosedive.