18U hockey in USA is now better than Canada

[Faceboner]

U18’s have been owned by the US since the inception of the NTDP - this isn’t new information. They’re literally a TEAM going up against newly constructed roster(s)

True but ntdp uses pro schemes which is way alot of us prospects come more pro ready

 

[jfhabs]

U18’s have been owned by the US since the inception of the NTDP - this isn’t new information. They’re literally a TEAM going up against newly constructed roster(s)

This + a lot of players are in their league playoffs

 

[ORRFForever]

For few years now USA teams 18U and 16U beat top Canadian teams. Worse, top Canadian 18U team plays US 16U team and loses. That can't be right. Eventually USA will be number 1 in hockey. Matter of time now. I'm not saying we have a better system, but looking at results we simply beat them. More, Canadian team rating is consistently lower.

The only thing that I'm not seeing is how many players per country moves onto Junior hockey and does not play 18U. If more players ditch Minor hockey to play Junior in Canada vs USA then I'm wrong, but there is no data that would indicate this, or at least it's hard to build a case for it. I simply assume what I see at 18U in both countries is true representation of talent.

To help put things in perspective, here are the number of 1st Round picks per country since 2020...

2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	Average
19	18	9	12	18	15.2		Canada
2020	2021	2022	2023	2024
2	6	7	6	4	5		US
2020	2021	2022	2023	2024
2	6	4	6	0	3.6		Sweden
2020	2021	2022	2023	2024
1	0	1	0	2	0.8		Finland
2020	2021	2022	2023	2024
4	1	3	4	4	3.2		Russia
2020	2021	2022	2023	2024
0	0	3	2	0	1		Slovakia
2020	2021	2022	2023	2024
0	0	2	1	1	0.8		Czechia
2020	2021	2022	2023	2024
2	0	2	1	1	1.2		Germany

 

[awegrzyn]

Our point was that you fundamentally don't understand the two systems you are comparing are not the same. You cannot compare them in the way you are. At any age level of AAA. Best on best international tourneys is the one real chance you can do some comparison.

You CAN compare them up to 14U. They have a rating, they play each other, and they both do not go to Juniors at that age, and at that age we are on par and even better sometimes. All at the same time while pulling only from 100 teams and not 200 like Canada.

Please don't tell me I don't understand the two systems without laying down the facts. Tell me exactly what I do not understand, because I simply looked up youth hockey stats. There is almost zero opinion in what I said. It's pretty clear we do something good until 14U and then we screw up later on at Junior development. I have a feeling it has to do of youth players not being able to PLAY UP to better teams.

Now, for those who said it has to do with NTDP, I never in my post ever mentioned those teams. I never compared them, I never talked about them. They don't play Canadian Youth teams, etc. I only compared Youth hockey across the countries. It wasn't anything smart. I simply went and looked at stats year by year: numbers of teams, ratings, scores.

@ORRFForever Yes, they draft more Canadians, because USA development ends at 16 relative to Canadian. Canadian kids PLAY UP at better competition and develop better, hence the difference from 14U all the way to the draft. In other words, US Hockey has a completely wrong development approach to players. It works up to 14U, because it's not up to US Hockey, but individual clubs and coaches, but once that ends, players stop developing at optimal rate due to lack of Junior hockey program.

 

[ORRFForever]

@ORRFForever Yes, they draft more Canadians, because USA development ends at 16 relative to Canadian. Canadian kids PLAY UP at better competition and develop better, hence the difference from 14U all the way to the draft. In other words, US Hockey has a completely wrong development approach to players. It works up to 14U, because it's not up to US Hockey, but individual clubs and coaches, but once that ends, players stop developing at optimal rate due to lack of Junior hockey program.

Fair enough. Interesting.

 

[Mathieukferland]

All at the same time while pulling only from 100 teams and not 200 like Canada.

Once again you disprove your entire point and do not know how the system works in (this time in western) Canada; there is no elite u14 in Western Canada and Québec, only in Ontario. The best kids go right to u15 in the west and Québec.

The reason there are so many more teams in Ontario at u14 is because the depth of talent (well not necessarily better) is the deepest in the world for a single geographic area. You’re comparing Southern Ontario u14 to the entire county of the USA

 

[Seachd]

You CAN compare them up to 14U. They have a rating, they play each other, and they both do not go to Juniors at that age, and at that age we are on par and even better sometimes. All at the same time while pulling only from 100 teams and not 200 like Canada.

Please don't tell me I don't understand the two systems without laying down the facts.

Here’s a quick fact. “U14”, as mentioned, isn’t even a thing where I am in Canada, and probably other parts.

 

[Golden_Jet]

For few years now USA teams 18U and 16U beat top Canadian teams. Worse, top Canadian 18U team plays US 16U team and loses. That can't be right. Eventually USA will be number 1 in hockey. Matter of time now. I'm not saying we have a better system, but looking at results we simply beat them. More, Canadian team rating is consistently lower.

The only thing that I'm not seeing is how many players per country moves onto Junior hockey and does not play 18U. If more players ditch Minor hockey to play Junior in Canada vs USA then I'm wrong, but there is no data that would indicate this, or at least it's hard to build a case for it. I simply assume what I see at 18U in both countries is true representation of talent.

First round this year
18 Canadians
4 Americans

 

[Craig Ludwig]

First round this year
18 Canadians
4 Americans

You beat me to it

 

[Czechboy]

First of all.. the USHL is amazing and the US development path and pipeline are elite.

This draft Canada (88) had the same amount as Sweden/US/Russia combined.

Using International bans.. they had more than their 3 World Cup opponents (Finland, Sweden and US) combined.

I'd say they are still doing okay.

 

[awegrzyn]

@Seachd
@Mathieukferland

No. I do not disprove anything at all. I took Eastern and Western Canada known as "U15" into consideration. Below are the groups. Look at those groups, those are all the teams in Canada and I took the best out of those groups and that's how I compared them. I did include "elite 15U" in those 14U. So I am comparing it apples to apples, and I even give some edge to Canada.

Eastern Canada AAA
Western Canada AAA
Quebec AAA
Ontario 2010 AAA
Ontario 2009 AAA

Btw, for 23-24 in those 15U that they have in Canada playing in the 14U rankings only 2 teams are top notch. They are from Alberta.

@ Others - I'm not even gonna reply, you're not reading the thread, you're just trying to sound smart.

 

[Golden_Jet]

Canada won the latest U18 and U17 tournaments, despite not having a lot of their best players not playing in the U18, seems like their still doing Ok.
Not to mention this weeks draft.

 

[Kingpin794]

This means: The pool of talent is even, but Junior programs in Canada are much better and they develop players better since they UP Play to a higher standard. Hence more Canadian players end up in NHL. Proportionally too many comparing to 14U talent pools across both countries.

This further means: USA must change the way they develop players. They need to UP Play. Player development is somehow misunderstood. Males peak in everything they do between ages 28 and 32. Up until that age a player is technically "developing". So Junior hockey in USA falters relatively to Canada.

This whole section is what we mean when we say you are misunderstanding the situation. The USA trying to keep up with a nation who have hockey woven into their DNA has nothing to do with "up playing" as you put it.

 

[ORRFForever]

You beat me to it

I beat BOTH of you to it. (smile)

 

[ORRFForever]

I'm wrong

Yes you are.

Posters have been starting threads like this since HF started (2000) and Canada is still on top. In fact, people have been throwing dirt on the grave of Canadian hockey since 1972 - first, it was the Russians who were going to dominate us, now it is the U.S.

Unfortunately, every month or 2, a poster (usually a newer one or someone who resents Canadian hockey) feels the need to go there, AGAIN. I wish threads like this would go away forever - it's the same old, same old.

 

[jj cale]

Yes you are.

Posters have been starting threads like this since HF started (2000) and Canada is still on top. In fact, people have been throwing dirt on the grave of Canadian hockey since 1972 - first, it was the Russians who were going to dominate us, now it is the U.S.

Unfortunately, every month or 2, a poster (usually a newer one or someone who resents Canadian hockey) feels the need to go there, AGAIN. I wish threads like this would go away forever - it's the same old, same old.

It's tiring, you would think people would have better things to do.

 

[Mathieukferland]

@Seachd
@Mathieukferland

No. I do not disprove anything at all. I took Eastern and Western Canada known as "U15" into consideration. Below are the groups. Look at those groups, those are all the teams in Canada and I took the best out of those groups and that's how I compared them. I did include "elite 15U" in those 14U. So I am comparing it apples to apples, and I even give some edge to Canada.

Eastern Canada AAA
Western Canada AAA
Quebec AAA
Ontario 2010 AAA
Ontario 2009 AAA

Btw, for 23-24 in those 15U that they have in Canada playing in the 14U rankings only 2 teams are top notch. They are from Alberta.

@ Others - I'm not even gonna reply, you're not reading the thread, you're just trying to sound smart.

Once again, you either aren’t from North America, aren’t familiar with how minor hockey works in North America, or are just trolling. I’ve already explained myself further back in this thread how minor hockey progression works in both Canada and the USA.

I don’t even know what you’re trying to illustrate here. I’ve been involved in minor hockey in both Canada and the USA across 2 provinces and 2 states, and, at the very top the talent is quite similar (more concentrated in the USA, more spread out in Canada), but whereas there are maybe 30 teams per individual birth year in the USA that could truly be considered elite with 4-8+ players that will move on to major junior or tier 1 junior, there are probably 50-60 in Canada of that same calibre at minor hockey.

 

[ORRFForever]

It's tiring, you would think people would have better things to do.

Like it or not, there are posters at HF who have been waiting for years / decades for Canadian Hockey to collapse so they can celebrate and say, "I told you so". Unfortunately, it's not a small number of posters and they keep starting threads like this.

Remember the "There are NO Canadians in the Top 10 in Goal Scoring" thread? That aged well.

 

[ORRFForever]

Once again, you either aren’t from North America, aren’t familiar with how minor hockey works in North America, or are just trolling. I’ve already explained myself further back in this thread how minor hockey progression works in both Canada and the USA.

I don’t even know what you’re trying to illustrate here. I’ve been involved in minor hockey in both Canada and the USA across 2 provinces and 2 states, and, at the very top the talent is quite similar (more concentrated in the USA, more spread out in Canada), but whereas there are maybe 30 teams per individual birth year in the USA that could truly be considered elite with 4-8+ players that will move on to major junior or tier 1 junior, there are probably 50-60 in Canada of that same calibre at minor hockey.

It's like the poster who loved to say, "There are more Texans playing high school hockey than ALL of Canada".

The problem with that argument : We don't have high school hockey in (most of) Canada. They are comparing apples to oranges to prove a point.

Anyway, life is too short to argue this. I am off to cut the grass.

 

[jj cale]

Like it or not, there are posters at HF who have been waiting for years / decades for Canadian Hockey to collapse so they can celebrate and say, "I told you so". Unfortunately, it's not a small number of posters and they keep starting threads like this.

Remember the "There are NO Canadians in the Top 10 in Goal Scoring" thread? That aged well.

It's actually now listed in the 5th edition of the diagnostic and statistical manual of mental health disorders.

 

[ORRFForever]

It's actually now listed in the 5th edition of the diagnostic and statistical manual of mental health disorders.

Finally! I've been pushing to get it included for years!