GDT: #18 ⋅ ANA @ CHI ⋅ 5:30 PM PST

[Frosted Tips]

Someone needs to fill me in on this ranch water thing. I keep seeing it being mentioned and i can't help feeling like I'm missing out.

 

[Lord Flashheart]

Are we the world’s biggest slider or the world’s smallest burger?


His passing and vision are crazy. But he’s so tiny and slow.

I take burger on this one.

 

[Vaakou]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1859306683329347899

Fowler is a big part of the problem. The weakest part of his game.

 

[Arthuros]

Someone needs to fill me in on this ranch water thing. I keep seeing it being mentioned and i can't help feeling like I'm missing out.

I think it's funnier if you don't get filled in and just join in anyway.

 

[Hockey Duckie]

Vaak and Helleson combined have played half as many games as Minty. They do not have enough data to make any kind of statistical comparison.

The only comparison you can make in this group is with Zell, who has been pretty great.

I painted a big picture.

• The OP author made a comment about Minty playing with Gudas as a reason for bad play, but they've only been a pair for 3 games.
• Vaak has only played with Gudas, iirc. That counters playing with Gudas is terrible in a sense. Although, they weren't playing as a top-pair.
• Helleson has been playing bottom-pairing minutes, in a very sheltered role. Although, he has only played 6 NHL games, 3 game this season. What a nice surprise Helleson is holding up, though, again, in a sheltered role.

Minty's CF% is down from last year. That denotes stagnation or a step backwards. I shared Minty's production from last year into pairing splits and pairing levels. Minty looked good in a "sheltered role". When Minty was elevated into a top-4 role, then he struggled. The exception was playing with LaCombe in a top-4 role for seven games.

In an elevated role from the get go this season, Minty is continuing his development that he started during last season. IMO, there is nothing wrong with it b/c it's still a developmental season. His offense isn't as dynamic as it was last year and he looks very pedestrian when compared to Zell's offense. LaCombe's offense is more noticeable than Minty's offense this year. Minty's defense has been so-so to meh, but Dumo has been a good partner for him. In conclusion, Minty doesn't look like he has taken steps forward on the ice for the eye test and on paper after 18 games.

 

[The Midnight Burrito]

Factually, he's a more high-event player than he was last year. You're clearly drawing your own conclusions from those events, but I don't see how he's "shrunken" his game given that more shots and scoring chances are generated on both sides of the ice when he's out there. It seems as if you've decided the team is bad at developing its young players (which might be true) and thrown Mintyukov into that boat based to back up that assertion.

I am encouraged by the progress he's made this year. I'll agree to disagree on this one.

Lol, “factually.”

My view of his game isn’t informed in the first instance by his derivative statistics—that’s lazy—which is why we’re not communicating. You’re seeing him not getting into as much trouble and then glancing at a stat sheet to justify your feelings, like I said before. These are low salience stats, like I also said, and I frankly don’t have a lot of respect for player analysis that derives from them, which you’re clearly doing here.

I’m glad you’re encouraged. That’ll be all.

 

[Deuce22]

We’re still only firing on a couple cylinders in terms of the kids playing effectively, which is supposed to be the point. No progress so far from Minty/Mac/Carlsson, a few signs of life from LaCombe, Cutter, and Z, major steps by Zell and Dostal.

Don't understand how you've seen signs of life from LaCombe but no progress from Mintyukov. Also putting Carlsson in the same category as McTavish is just wrong.

 

[WhatTheDuck]

Sabres, Kraken (x2), Kings and Sens for our next five games. All winnable games if they keep playing the way they have of late, and I think any decent team would be banking on winning at least 3 of those 5.

 

[The Midnight Burrito]

Don't understand how you've seen signs of life from LaCombe but no progress from Mintyukov. Also putting Carlsson in the same category as McTavish is just wrong.

Neither has progressed this year. Mac has been objectively worse than Leo but that wasn’t the point of the category.

 

[Deuce22]

Disagree that Carlsson hasn’t progressed.

 

[Hockey Duckie]

So... are they playing better the last 3 games because of Cronin or in spite of him?

I can already guess the responses

We’ve solidified our place as the best of the bad teams.

We've beaten Detroit, Dallas, and Chicago. Detroit and Chicago are sub-0.500 teams. We're very good against 0.500 teams and below. Dallas is an above-0.500 team, which we withstood their onslaught once they woke up a period too late. Thank goodness for great goal tending.

Two games ago, I said we likely would be reaching .500 again for the next five games b/c we would be facing four sub-.500 teams and one above-.500 team. We got there earlier than I thought. I was expecting a 4-1-0 record.

at Dallas (0.688 at the time): Result = win
at Chicago (0.289 at the time): Result = win
vs Buffalo (0.417 at the time): on Nov 22
vs Seattle (0.447 at the time): on Nov 25
at Seattle (0.447 at the time): on Nov 27

Gudas said at the start of the three game set that they changed their system. We woke after going down 3-1 against the Red Wings. Thank goodness for Gibby keeping us in that game until we woke up. Against Dallas, we were aggressive to score two goal very early in the 1st period and held on dear life. Thank goodness for Dostal. Last night, we looked like the better team throughout, but didn't get the additional scores until the third period for the comeback win. Thank goodness for Gibby keeping us in and team defense for shutting down the Blackhawks offense in the third by limiting them to only 3 SOG's.

Our team defense did improve last year, but our offense was not much. Different half-story this year, GF = 46 goals (tied for 2nd worst in the league) and GA = 54 goals against (10th best in the league).

I'll give credit to Cronin in helping to reduce our penalties. We're tied for 4th least in the NHL for TSH with 48! That's not a misprint. Our PK unit ranks 29th with a 68.75% efficiency rate. Also, not a misprint. Our PP shined for the first two games and our PK shined in the last two games. Kudos to our ST coaches.

As @The Midnight Burrito stated, "best of the bad teams".

 

[Deuce22]

We've beaten Detroit, Dallas, and Chicago. Detroit and Chicago are sub-0.500 teams. We're very good against 0.500 teams and below. Dallas is an above-0.500 team, which we withstood their onslaught once they woke up a period too late. Thank goodness for great goal tending.

View attachment 933320

Two games ago, I said we likely would be reaching .500 again for the next five games b/c we would be facing four sub-.500 teams and one above-.500 team. We got there earlier than I thought. I was expecting a 4-1-0 record.

at Dallas (0.688 at the time): Result = win
at Chicago (0.289 at the time): Result = win
vs Buffalo (0.417 at the time): on Nov 22
vs Seattle (0.447 at the time): on Nov 25
at Seattle (0.447 at the time): on Nov 27

Gudas said at the start of the three game set that they changed their system. We woke after going down 3-1 against the Red Wings. Thank goodness for Gibby keeping us in that game until we woke up. Against Dallas, we were aggressive to score two goal very early in the 1st period and held on dear life. Thank goodness for Dostal. Last night, we looked like the better team throughout, but didn't get the additional scores until the third period for the comeback win. Thank goodness for Gibby keeping us in and team defense for shutting down the Blackhawks offense in the third by limiting them to only 3 SOG's.

Our team defense did improve last year, but our offense was not much. Different half-story this year, GF = 46 goals (tied for 2nd worst in the league) and GA = 54 goals against (10th best in the league).

I'll give credit to Cronin in helping to reduce our penalties. We're tied for 4th least in the NHL for TSH with 48! That's not a misprint. Our PK unit ranks 29th with a 68.75% efficiency rate. Also, not a misprint. Our PP shined for the first two games and our PK shined in the last two games. Kudos to our ST coaches.

As @The Midnight Burrito stated, "best of the bad team".

Cutting down on the penalties has been a big plus. PP starting to show signs of life.

 

[Zegs2sendhelp]

I painted a big picture.

• The OP author made a comment about Minty playing with Gudas as a reason for bad play, but they've only been a pair for 3 games.
• Vaak has only played with Gudas, iirc. That counters playing with Gudas is terrible in a sense. Although, they weren't playing as a top-pair.
• Helleson has been playing bottom-pairing minutes, in a very sheltered role. Although, he has only played 6 NHL games, 3 game this season. What a nice surprise Helleson is holding up, though, again, in a sheltered role.

Minty's CF% is down from last year. That denotes stagnation or a step backwards. I shared Minty's production from last year into pairing splits and pairing levels. Minty looked good in a "sheltered role". When Minty was elevated into a top-4 role, then he struggled. The exception was playing with LaCombe in a top-4 role for seven games.

In an elevated role from the get go this season, Minty is continuing his development that he started during last season. IMO, there is nothing wrong with it b/c it's still a developmental season. His offense isn't as dynamic as it was last year and he looks very pedestrian when compared to Zell's offense. LaCombe's offense is more noticeable than Minty's offense this year. Minty's defense has been so-so to meh, but Dumo has been a good partner for him. In conclusion, Minty doesn't look like he has taken steps forward on the ice for the eye test and on paper after 18 games.

Its tough to compare Minty and zellweger.

I get the impression they want to mold Mintyukov into more of a 2way/shutdown guy than an offensive dynamo.... which is prob better for us long term(similar to zegras becoming more of a 2way guy than a pure playmaker).

As he gets more comortable with the new asks, i think you'll start to see the offense improve..... i havnt felt that Mintyukov has been bad, just a young player learning hockey lessons. As you said its a developmental year... its good to have him playing these types of mins on PK and tougher situations.


Even strength mintyukov is actually out scoring zellweger

 

[Deuce22]

Its tough to compare Minty and zellweger.

I get the impression they want to mold Mintyukov into more of a 2way/shutdown guy than an offensive dynamo.... which is prob better for us long term(similar to zegras becoming more of a 2way guy than a pure playmaker).

As he gets more comortable with the new asks, i think you'll start to see the offense improve..... i havnt felt that Mintyukov has been bad, just a young player learning hockey lessons. As you said its a developmental year... its good to have him playing these types of mins on PK and tougher situations.


Even strength mintyukov is actually out scoring zellweger

Mintyukov’s ceiling is much higher. His size and instincts make it possible that he could be a two way stud. Zellweger can be a PP menace and an effective puck mover.

 

[Hockey Duckie]

Its tough to compare Minty and zellweger.

I get the impression they want to mold Mintyukov into more of a 2way/shutdown guy than an offensive dynamo.... which is prob better for us long term(similar to zegras becoming more of a 2way guy than a pure playmaker).

As he gets more comortable with the new asks, i think you'll start to see the offense improve..... i havnt felt that Mintyukov has been bad, just a young player learning hockey lessons. As you said its a developmental year... its good to have him playing these types of mins on PK and tougher situations.


Even strength mintyukov is actually out scoring zellweger

It isn't that tough. Last year, both Minty and Zell were aggressive offensively on the ice. This year, Minty jumping in on the offense has slowed down some that I'm noticing LaCombe more in the offensive end than Minty. Defensively, Zell still needs work and less gambling. Minty has just been quiet in the Dzone; I've noticed Dumo more than Minty in the Dzone.

Minty is adapting to playing top-4/top-2 from the get go. All I care about is Minty adapting this year and playing most of the season. It's kinda similar to how I wanted to see Drysdale last a whole season for his rookie season and not look bewildered. Hmmm... Maybe Minty is working through some minor injury? I haven't seen a big step forward, though. Not that I'm expecting it this early in the season, but hopefully it'll pop up later into the season as the game continues to slow down for him.

 

[Hockey Duckie]

Cutting down on the penalties has been a big plus. PP starting to show signs of life.

The fewer penalties has been a great boon b/c our PK efficiency ranks 29th overall. That limits the amount of goals against by a great margin. We can see this effect between the 2022-23 and 2023-24 seasons where the PK efficiencies are essentially the same rate.

Ducks	Special Teams
Season	Game Set	Games	PPG	PPO	PP Eff	.	PK GA	TSH	PK Eff	.	SHG	SHGA
2022-23	Season	82​	36​	229​	15.7%​	.	78​	280​	72.1%​		1​	7​
2023-24	Season	82​	42​	235​	17.9%​	.	91​	330​	72.4%​		12​	5​
2024-25	1 to 18	18​	9​	59​	15.3%​	.	15​	48​	68.8%​		0​	0​

I still don't trust our PP and PK units.

 

[Zegs2sendhelp]

It isn't that tough. Last year, both Minty and Zell were aggressive offensively on the ice. This year, Minty jumping in on the offense has slowed down some that I'm noticing LaCombe more in the offensive end than Minty. Defensively, Zell still needs work and less gambling. Minty has just been quiet in the Dzone; I've noticed Dumo more than Minty in the Dzone.

Minty is adapting to playing top-4/top-2 from the get go. All I care about is Minty adapting this year and playing most of the season. It's kinda similar to how I wanted to see Drysdale last a whole season for his rookie season and not look bewildered. Hmmm... Maybe Minty is working through some minor injury? I haven't seen a big step forward, though. Not that I'm expecting it this early in the season, but hopefully it'll pop up later into the season as the game continues to slow down for him.

I dont think its really injury related

And i think hes taken steps forward...
increased mins, increased PK time, increased Dzone starts.

Going to compare it to zegras in the sense you kinda have to take a step back to take a step forward (in relation to improving your d game to improve your overall game at the expense of offense )... again i think its just getting comoratable with new asks and youll start to see his offense elevate as the season goes on.

As for lacombe, id prob disagree.

I’d like to see Mintyukov be more of a weapon on power play, and maybe generate more shots when he on the ice, but I get it’s all a work in progress…. And hoping the end result is a top pairing 2way dmen.

 

[The Midnight Burrito]

Mintyukov’s ceiling is much higher. His size and instincts make it possible that he could be a two way stud. Zellweger can be a PP menace and an effective puck mover.

Agreed, Minty seems like a potential 1/2 to me. Peak Sergei Gonchar, if you want to stick with Russians. Whereas Zell’s ceiling is more of a specialist.

 

[ohcomeonref]

Disagree that Carlsson hasn’t progressed.

Where have you seen him improve specifically? I see a guy who disappears for long stretches then BOOM FLASHY PLAY AND GOAL, back to nothing for a long period of time.

 

[Leonardo87]

Leo leads the team in goals, is tied for 2nd in GW goals in the entire league. Can you imagine when this kid really gets going? Holy Crap!!!

 

[ohcomeonref]

Leo leads the team in goals, is tied for 2nd in GW goals in the entire league. Can you imagine when this kid really gets going? Holy Crap!!!

Exactly. If the flashes of brilliance become standard play for him then we will have a hundred-point-guy on our hands.

 

[Mr Rogers]

Leo is having trouble retrieving the puck right now. Guys need to essentially “set him up” so that he in return can set them up for goals it looks like. Could still be a matter of strength honestly.

I think we are still a season or two away from him really cutting loose.

 

[Deuce22]

Where have you seen him improve specifically? I see a guy who disappears for long stretches then BOOM FLASHY PLAY AND GOAL, back to nothing for a long period of time.

He’s stronger, spending more time around the net, and could have more assists if guys had finished. He’s 19, not yet a finished product, but is more of a factor than last season.

 

[Hockey Duckie]

The Ducks are 4-1 in their last give. In all four wins, at least one defensemen has scored a goal and all those defensemen are youth d-men. The odd thing only our young d-men have scored goals this season.

D-man Goal Scored

• Columbus, 4-2 win: LaCombe
• Detroit, 6-4 win: Zell
• Dallas, 4-2 win: Zell and LaCombe
• Chicago, 3-2 win: Minty

Our young OFD's are attacking more. Zell does it with his shot from afar while the bigger guys have crashed the net in LaCombe and Minty. Our D pinching down often reminds me of when we did it often under Eakins.

• Games 1-13
  • Zell: 12 games, 2g +2a, -1 rating
  • Minty: 12 games, 2g + 0a, -6 rating
  • LaCombe: 7 games, 0g +1a, -6 rating

• Games 14-18
  • Zell: 5 games, 2g +2a, +2 rating
  • Minty: 5 games, 1g + 2a, +2 rating
  • LaCombe: 5 games, 2g +1a, +5 rating

Holy shit! It's like night and day productions from those trio. Our d-men last year scored 22 goals total in 82 games. We're already at 9 goals in 18 games.

 

[Deuce22]

The Ducks are 4-1 in their last give. In all four wins, at least one defensemen has scored a goal and all those defensemen are youth d-men. The odd thing only our young d-men have scored goals this season.

D-man Goal Scored

• Columbus, 4-2 win: LaCombe
• Detroit, 6-4 win: Zell
• Dallas, 4-2 win: Zell and LaCombe
• Chicago, 3-2 win: Minty

Our young OFD's are attacking more. Zell does it with his shot from afar while the bigger guys have crashed the net in LaCombe and Minty. Our D pinching down often reminds me of when we did it often under Eakins.

• Games 1-13
  • Zell: 12 games, 2g +2a, -1 rating
  • Minty: 12 games, 2g + 0a, -6 rating
  • LaCombe: 7 games, 0g +1a, -6 rating

• Games 14-18
  • Zell: 5 games, 2g +2a, +2 rating
  • Minty: 5 games, 1g + 2a, +2 rating
  • LaCombe: 5 games, 2g +1a, +5 rating

Holy shit! It's like night and day productions from those trio. Our d-men last year scored 22 goals total in 82 games. We're already at 9 goals in 18 games.

Last 5 the young D haven’t been constantly trapped in our zone defending. Don’t know if it’s the supposed “new system” or not. But it’s different in a good way.