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Prospect Info: #129 Arseny Gritsyuk RW

devilsblood said:
So you are confident Karpovich is going to be a top 4 D in the KHL?

And guys who play at a JAG level in the KHL/SHL/Liiga etc is not something I hang my hat on. What does that do for the team? Especially the Russians who show less desire to play in NA.
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Whoops, I skipped over Karpovich and didn't see that he didn't play much in the KHL this year. But that's the whole point is that they don't play at a JAG level - that they are at least an average player in those leagues. I'd much rather have an organization who can consistently find talented players who pan out somewhere. Life and the draft are uncertain and injuries can derail any career.

devilsblood said:
Is Zaitsev putting up zero points and 7 assists in 48 games this year in the KHL better then Jeremy Davies 11-32-43 in 67 AHL games? Is Maltsev(who yes did come over a bit) playing in the KHL a better pick then Gignac playing in the AHL?
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You are comparing the wrong players - all of those guys are fine picks. Davies is at least an 80th percentile 7th round selection. Compare Zaitsev to his 7th round compatriots from 2017, Chainey retired before he turned pro and Hellickson had a cup of coffee in the AHL. Compare Gritsyuk to Cole Brady who was taken before him and who is no longer in pro hockey at all, or Moynihan taken after him who is in the ECHL. When the floor is higher, the ceiling is usually higher too.
 
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Triumph said:
Whoops, I skipped over Karpovich and didn't see that he didn't play much in the KHL this year. But that's the whole point is that they don't play at a JAG level - that they are at least an average player in those leagues. I'd much rather have an organization who can consistently find talented players who pan out somewhere. Life and the draft are uncertain and injuries can derail any career.



You are comparing the wrong players - all of those guys are fine picks. Davies is at least an 80th percentile 7th round selection. Compare Zaitsev to his 7th round compatriots from 2017, Chainey retired before he turned pro and Hellickson had a cup of coffee in the AHL. Compare Gritsyuk to Cole Brady who was taken before him and who is no longer in pro hockey at all, or Moynihan taken after him who is in the ECHL. When the floor is higher, the ceiling is usually higher too.
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But a guy like Zaitsev was a D+1 and already playing in the KHL. For one I think that lessens the impressiveness of doing so, and 2, he never came over so he never actually provided the Devils anything.

Grits might, and hopefully he is good. But he's 24 and we still don't know if he can hack it in the NHL. I mean, I guess he's proven already that he was a good pick but yeah 24 and we still don't know.
 
Triumph said:
Whoops, I skipped over Karpovich and didn't see that he didn't play much in the KHL this year.
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He had injuries this season. He didnt play much at all. It doesnt help and it will take time for rehab. He was solid in first Belarus league and second Russian league. But its too early to talk about NHL absolutely. KHL - may be a couple of years - he has tools. I think there is a good chance(much bigger than for average 5-7th rounder) he will try himself in AHL at least if everything will go right with his health.
 
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devilsblood said:
But a guy like Zaitsev was a D+1 and already playing in the KHL. For one I think that lessens the impressiveness of doing so, and 2, he never came over so he never actually provided the Devils anything.

Grits might, and hopefully he is good. But he's 24 and we still don't know if he can hack it in the NHL. I mean, I guess he's proven already that he was a good pick but yeah 24 and we still don't know.
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I thought your point was going to be that the Devils related value for Russian players tends to be lower because Russians who don't make the NHL on a full-time basis go home. See Maltsev. He could be an effective tweener - perhaps with a better career than Dowling. But, understandably, he'd rather play at home than spend much of his career in the AHL.

At least the lower end American and Canadian provide organizational depth. Low end Russians (and probably Europeans in general) tend not to do that for any real length of time. E.g., Davies and Gignac are available to be emergency call-ups. Maltsev is not.
 
devilsblood said:
But a guy like Zaitsev was a D+1 and already playing in the KHL. For one I think that lessens the impressiveness of doing so, and 2, he never came over so he never actually provided the Devils anything.
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You are arguing about a 7th round pick. I don't care how 'impressive' it is, I care about a team finding players - the Devils didn't quite find one there, but they came close. Go ahead and look at the Devils' 7th round picks before Castron took over - it's a lot of guys who did not have pro careers.

A. Brodeur, P. Daly, Jorg, Gedig, H. Young, JS Berube, Molle, Henegan, A. Sundstrom, Eckford, PL3 - there's 4 ELCs out of 11 players, Young and Berube did nothing as pros, PL3 was a goon - only Eckford met my criteria, with Jorg eking into it by becoming a 2nd line forward in Switzerland at age 25 (and he was a double overager).

devilsblood said:
Grits might, and hopefully he is good. But he's 24 and we still don't know if he can hack it in the NHL. I mean, I guess he's proven already that he was a good pick but yeah 24 and we still don't know.
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Just arguing for arguing's sake.
 
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tailfins said:
I thought your point was going to be that the Devils related value for Russian players tends to be lower because Russians who don't make the NHL on a full-time basis go home. See Maltsev. He could be an effective tweener - perhaps with a better career than Dowling. But, understandably, he'd rather play at home than spend much of his career in the AHL.

At least the lower end American and Canadian provide organizational depth. Low end Russians (and probably Europeans in general) tend not to do that for any real length of time. E.g., Davies and Gignac are available to be emergency call-ups. Maltsev is not.
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So - thats our question. Draft player with top-9 potential or higher(or he will dump your organization, which so kindly spent the pick in a late round on the availability of eternal property rights), or draft player who more likely will be emergency call-up in a good case.
 
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tailfins said:
I thought your point was going to be that the Devils related value for Russian players tends to be lower because Russians who don't make the NHL on a full-time basis go home. See Maltsev. He could be an effective tweener - perhaps with a better career than Dowling. But, understandably, he'd rather play at home than spend much of his career in the AHL.

At least the lower end American and Canadian provide organizational depth. Low end Russians (and probably Europeans in general) tend not to do that for any real length of time. E.g., Davies and Gignac are available to be emergency call-ups. Maltsev is not.
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From this point of view Bratt wasnt perfect pick too. If he would not pan out - he would go back home most likely. Dowling at least playing in AHL. But he wasnt drafted by Devils.
Edwards was. Devils waited him for 5 years. Faster than 6 I guess.
Thats all. Moynihan and Brady are not AHLers. McCarthy is, not so successful and dumped Devils. Hoelscher isnt regular AHLer. Finnish Pakkila too. Helickson has the same level of career as Karpovich, being few years older. Not AHLer. NCAA player Schleine dumped Devils. There is a chance he can be AHLer. Baumgartner? Forever no. Pytlik? May be he will try himself in AHL some day.

We dont have AHL players mostly from our drafts younger than Gritsyuk or of his age. Only Edwards, whom we waited for 5 years and he had all the rights to sign with other teams. Many(most) older players from later rounds are not AHLers. Talvitie isnt, Chainy, Cormier. Pakkila, Pasic. Studenic was good AHLer/Pro. He isnt in NA now. Most of them are not really good pro players.
Sharangovich is, Bratt, Gritsyuk, Vilen, Bardakov, Orlov, Malek, Edwards I hope(from latest drafts). Most of them are Euros, they would leave NA as Sudenic and Okhotiuk did if their career would not turn onto regular NHL path. Some of them will.

So Im not sure that drafting guys from the next door only in every round is a good strategy even for AHL, not just for seeking better talent, what for the draft was all that time.
 
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tailfins said:
I thought your point was going to be that the Devils related value for Russian players tends to be lower because Russians who don't make the NHL on a full-time basis go home. See Maltsev. He could be an effective tweener - perhaps with a better career than Dowling. But, understandably, he'd rather play at home than spend much of his career in the AHL.

At least the lower end American and Canadian provide organizational depth. Low end Russians (and probably Europeans in general) tend not to do that for any real length of time. E.g., Davies and Gignac are available to be emergency call-ups. Maltsev is not.
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To be fair, the team has moved multiple Russian prospects in trades. They can always provide value in that way even if they are not likely to come to North America and play for NJ.
 
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tailfins said:
I thought your point was going to be that the Devils related value for Russian players tends to be lower because Russians who don't make the NHL on a full-time basis go home. See Maltsev. He could be an effective tweener - perhaps with a better career than Dowling. But, understandably, he'd rather play at home than spend much of his career in the AHL.

At least the lower end American and Canadian provide organizational depth. Low end Russians (and probably Europeans in general) tend not to do that for any real length of time. E.g., Davies and Gignac are available to be emergency call-ups. Maltsev is not.
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A good extension of the overall point that unless they are truly high end guys there is the risk that they play in Russia instead of the US.

We see it to a lesser extent with the other euro's, but it's there with them too.
 
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Triumph said:
You are arguing about a 7th round pick. I don't care how 'impressive' it is, I care about a team finding players - the Devils didn't quite find one there, but they came close. Go ahead and look at the Devils' 7th round picks before Castron took over - it's a lot of guys who did not have pro careers.

A. Brodeur, P. Daly, Jorg, Gedig, H. Young, JS Berube, Molle, Henegan, A. Sundstrom, Eckford, PL3 - there's 4 ELCs out of 11 players, Young and Berube did nothing as pros, PL3 was a goon - only Eckford met my criteria, with Jorg eking into it by becoming a 2nd line forward in Switzerland at age 25 (and he was a double overager).
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But again, yes Zaitsev had a pro career, he was a pro when we drafted him, but because he is a Russian in the KHL there is this consideration that he may never come over.

Triumph said:
Just arguing for arguing's sake.
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No, it's another example of the same point. Russians don't want to leave the KHL. In this case we see less of a guy instead of not at all, so it's a matter of degree, but it's still the same thing. It's like a tax on the value of these guys and it's why they are available where they are in the draft.
 
Nikishin signs a two year entry level contract. Is Carolina able to do that because he’s 23? Wondering why we can only sign Grits to one year ELC. He’s 24….so that’s what I’m deducing but if someone can please affirm or correct me, I’d appreciate it.
 
devilsblood said:
No, it's another example of the same point. Russians don't want to leave the KHL.
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This is either imprecisely stated or untrue. Russian players have less control over their careers but most of them do want to come over to North America when given the opportunity. Yes, there were a few guys like Mozyakin who never came over, but that is an anomaly. Of the top goal scorers in the KHL this season, most of them have played in North America or this is their first big-scoring year. I imagine one or two of them will never come over.

devilsblood said:
In this case we see less of a guy instead of not at all, so it's a matter of degree, but it's still the same thing. It's like a tax on the value of these guys and it's why they are available where they are in the draft.
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Not everything in the draft is correctly valued, and I still do not think Russian players are correctly valued.
 
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longislanddevil said:
Nikishin signs a two year entry level contract. Is Carolina able to do that because he’s 23? Wondering why we can only sign Grits to one year ELC. He’s 24….so that’s what I’m deducing but if someone can please affirm or correct me, I’d appreciate it.
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Yep that's exactly why. 24 years old, only a 1 year ELC. So if he comes this season, it's burned and is RFA this summer.
 
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well that’s dumb, with our utter lack of depth heading into the playoffs I hope this is grits’ decision and not fitz
 
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Call Me Al said:
well that’s dumb, with our utter lack of depth heading into the playoffs I hope this is grits’ decision and not fitz
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It's not dumb at all. Dumb would be blowing an ELC year for a 14th forward. I only thought the Devils would have to blow the ELC year because otherwise Gritsyuk wouldn't sign here, but if he's willing to actually play out a season on an ELC, that's great.
 
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