GDT: 12/21/23 - 7:00PM EDT - Vegas vs Tampa Bay

[Rschmitz]

95% of the league does not have a 9.5M or more goalie and other top teams are fine. The trend around the league is average goaltending and superior depth in the lineup for awhile now, Tampa's wins were the exception.

This is like the people who say they were beat as children and turned out fine. Great, there is a recent phenomena of teams who are unable to find upper tier goaltending but still winning. That isn't a testament that elite goaltending is not important, but how rare it is. It's a thing until it isn't, and doesn't undue 50+ years of goaltending being a major contributing factor on teams who do win. There are lots of NFL teams who win championships without elite QB's too, all that proves is that they are unnecessary.

Even now there is still plenty of evidence of teams making deep playoff runs off the backs of great goaltending, even if they didn't win a championship.

The post-Khabibulin excuse is getting old, those teams were bad top to bottom along with bad goaltending, bad management and bad coaching, acting like it was all on goaltending is disingenuous , we are clearly in a different spot now with the talent all around the organization.

Being disingenuous is thinking we can compare the talent teams have today to those Lightning teams, it was a different universe. We had some lean years but most of the teams were plenty good enough to win.

We can play both sides, the team in front of JJ had a lot of new faces and people getting used to the system early in the season and he still gave us "good enough to win" games more often than not, the results speak for themselves, the team's W-L record is nearly identical since Vasy's return, so by your logic if they're playing better with him in net but not winning anymore games than before then what's the issue there?

JJ and Vasy aren't even remotely comparable, the fact that you think they are makes me question if you watch the games.

 

[These Are The Days]

95% of the league does not have a 9.5M or more goalie and other top teams are fine. The trend around the league is average goaltending and superior depth in the lineup for awhile now, Tampa's wins were the exception.

The post-Khabibulin excuse is getting old, those teams were bad top to bottom along with bad goaltending, bad management and bad coaching, acting like it was all on goaltending is disingenuous , we are clearly in a different spot now with the talent all around the organization.

We can play both sides, the team in front of JJ had a lot of new faces and people getting used to the system early in the season and he still gave us "good enough to win" games more often than not, the results speak for themselves, the team's W-L record is nearly identical since Vasy's return, so by your logic if they're playing better with him in net but not winning anymore games than before then what's the issue there?

It's not that we need a $9.5 million goaltender. It's just that I remember the 8-9 years post Khabibulin where the best tending we got was the last dying breath or Dwayne Roloson until Vasy and Bishop finally ended the suffering.

I will never forget Sean Burke and John Garahame making Martin Havlat look like Nikita Kucherov for as long as I live and then following it up with the fact that even mediocre goaltending beats New Jersey the next season

 

[Master P]

This is like the people who say they were beat as children and turned out fine. Great, there is a recent phenomena of teams who are unable to find upper tier goaltending but still winning. That isn't a testament that elite goaltending is not important, but how rare it is. It's a thing until it isn't, and doesn't undue 50+ years of goaltending being a major contributing factor on teams who do win. There are lots of NFL teams who win championships without elite QB's too, all that proves is that they are unnecessary.

Even now there is still plenty of evidence of teams making deep playoff runs off the backs of great goaltending, even if they didn't win a championship.


Being disingenuous is thinking we can compare the talent teams have today to those Lightning teams, it was a different universe. We had some lean years but most of the teams were plenty good enough to win.



JJ and Vasy aren't even remotely comparable, the fact that you think they are makes me question if you watch the games.

Don't bother. He's not gonna change his shit takes.

I'm with you 100% on your last point.

 

[DFC]

I think there is a lot of reason to be concerned about Vasy (the floating shots that he can't pick up, mainly). That said, I dont think this team has a chance with anything less than stellar goaltending, so all we can do is hope he returns to form, because it's not like that grows on trees.

 

[Antiramie]

I’m much more concerned about players continually leaving guys wide open 3 feet from Vasy that virtually no goalie is gonna have a chance on than however many less floaters from the point he’s been struggling with lately. The former is 100x a bigger problem.

 

[Peacefool]

I watched game thought we won, I came here read last posts and thought that we lost xD
I dont see Vasys fault at any of goals, guys played good, defence wasnt pretty, loved Hagels fight, love whn not tough guys are fightingt it was like trully streetfight between him and Barby, Kuch is playing his best hockey ever, can we play like rest of the games against contenders, we look better against them. GG Bolts!

 

[Sky04]

JJ and Vasy aren't even remotely comparable, the fact that you think they are makes me question if you watch the games.

Dodging the question, typical response when the evidence shows one thing and your arguments another. I am watching are you? Nobody is disputing Vasy is a better talent, his play has been incredibly subpar to where his numbers and results have been comparable to our backup. If he gives this team such a boost like you said it hasn't resulted in anything tangible considering we are playing and losing the exact same way we've been all season.

We pay for an elite goaltender, we're getting backup results. Like others have mentioned this team isn't going anywhere without elite goaltending so yeah its an issue. If Brayden Point was scoring at 3rd line levels and Sergachev was playing on as a 3rd pairing defenseman at their respective prices they'd be shit on, weird that Vasy gets a pass, especially how he bombed that last playoff run single handedly.

 

[bigdaddio]

I watched game thought we won, I came here read last posts and thought that we lost xD
I dont see Vasys fault at any of goals, guys played good, defence wasnt pretty, loved Hagels fight, love whn not tough guys are fightingt it was like trully streetfight between him and Barby, Kuch is playing his best hockey ever, can we play like rest of the games against contenders, we look better against them. GG Bolts!

We won through sheer strength of will on offense and Vasy making some huge saves. I think the complaint is we can't always do that and too many goals are just total assignment breakdowns on defense. It's not personel so it can and should be fixed but has not for 1/2 the season.

 

[DistantThunderRep]

Just some advanced stats for Vasy up to now for Vasy.

GP	GA	SA	FA	xGA	Sv%	FSv%	xFSv%	dFSv%	GSAA	GSAx
12	33.1	338.65	487.43	34.61	90.23	93.21	92.9	0.31	-0.41	1.51

GP - Games Played
GA - Goals Against
SA - Shots Against
FA - Fenwick Shots Against (goals, saved shots, missed shots)
xGA - Expected Goals Against (total xG value of all Fenwick Shots Against)
Sv% - Save Percentage: 1 – (GA / SA)
FSv% - Fenwick Save Percentage: 1 – (GA / FA)
xFSv% - Expected Fenwick Save Percentage: 1 – (xGA / FA)
dFSv% - Delta Fenwick Save Percentage: FSv% – xFSv%
GSAA - Goals Saved Above Average: (League Sv% * SA) – GA
GSAx - Goals Saved Above Expected: xGA – GA

His general numbers are good. Not $9.5M good but its only been 12 games for him. The real stand out to me is actually his Even Strength Metrics:

Shots	GA	SV%	xGA	scSA	scGA	scSV%	HDscSA	HDscGA	HDsc SV%
276	23	.917	22.6	139	15	.892	48	6	.875

5 on 5, Vasy is has a .917, kind of passes the eye test. He on average eating 28.75 shots per game, slightly lower than last year which he was at 31.25. Comparing some of Vasy's old season numbers its actually impressive how consistent his advanced numbers are compared to previous seasons. Its not actually that far off for a lot of it.

Even all my bitching about the defense giving up too many High Danger Chances is not actually as bad as I thought. Compared to the last few years, this year so far isn't so bad. For exmaple

Year	High Danger Chances Opponents % (chances to convert in GA)
2021-2022	12.1%
2022-2023	8.1%
2023-2024	9.7%

Dodging the question, typical response when the evidence shows one thing and your arguments another.I am watching are you? Nobody is disputing Vasy is a better talent, his play has been incredibly subpar to where his numbers and results have been comparable to our backup. If he gives this team such a boost like you said it hasn't resulted in anything tangible considering we are playing and losing the exact same way we've been all season.

We pay for an elite goaltender, we're getting backup results. Like others have mentioned this team isn't going anywhere without elite goaltending so yeah its an issue. If Brayden Point was scoring at 3rd line levels and Sergachev was playing on as a 3rd pairing defenseman at their respective prices they'd be shit on, weird that Vasy gets a pass, especially how he bombed that last playoff run single handededly.

Vasy's individual stats for this season are actually right on par with his standard play. The difference is somewhere between slightly poorer defensive structure, puck luck, and probably Vasy still warming up or getting older in general.

 

[RDTBay4]

Game Summary:

 

[RDTBay4]

Anyone catch the Chief on the radio broadcast. Great to hear him call the game again. It's hard to determine who shits on the refs harder, Espo or Chief, but either way I love it.

 

[OffBy1]

JJ had 20 games, let's give Vasy 20 games. Then let's take out one of JJ's vertebrae and see how his next 20 games go.

 

[bigdaddio]

Anyone catch the Chief on the radio broadcast. Great to hear him call the game again. It's hard to determine who shits on the refs harder, Espo or Chief, but either way I love it.

When you are old enough and established enough the league won't say a damn word when you call them out. Love it.

 

[Peacefool]

We won through sheer strength of will on offense and Vasy making some huge saves. I think the complaint is we can't always do that and too many goals are just total assignment breakdowns on defense. It's not personel so it can and should be fixed but has not for 1/2 the season.

Yeah I understand, its just that feeling that we won good game, I came here to celebrate, and here people are still fighting about Vasys bad goals, bad plays, who sucks more and why Sergachev got -3 at this game, its a lil bit dissapointing.
What I loved at this game its our push back,yes with troubles,with mistakes, but guys were all dialed up, they fought,they sacrifised,they tried their best to win this game, I really hope it will be the motive for more next games that guys are fighting and really trying hard to do thei best

 

[Rschmitz]

Dodging the question, typical response when the evidence shows one thing and your arguments another. I am watching are you? Nobody is disputing Vasy is a better talent, his play has been incredibly subpar to where his numbers and results have been comparable to our backup. If he gives this team such a boost like you said it hasn't resulted in anything tangible considering we are playing and losing the exact same way we've been all season.

We pay for an elite goaltender, we're getting backup results. Like others have mentioned this team isn't going anywhere without elite goaltending so yeah its an issue. If Brayden Point was scoring at 3rd line levels and Sergachev was playing on as a 3rd pairing defenseman at their respective prices they'd be shit on, weird that Vasy gets a pass, especially how he bombed that last playoff run single handedly.

Saying he hasn’t played at an elite level is completely different than saying he’s playing at JJ’s level, you are conflating the two different ideas as if they meant the same thing

 

[RDTBay4]

Also happy to see EE working for the organization, doing interviews and radio coverage.

 

[RDTBay4]

When you are old enough and established enough the league won't say a damn word when you call them out. Love it.

While true, Chief and Espo have been doing it from the moment they sat in front of the mic. Zero shits given.

 

[OffBy1]

When you are old enough and established enough the league won't say a damn word when you call them out. Love it.

Listen at the 11:44 mark to hear Chief's assessment of our defensive zone play this year.

 

[TampaBayLightning]

"They are a terrible defensive team, the lightning"
Chief

 

[DFC]

I’m much more concerned about players continually leaving guys wide open 3 feet from Vasy that virtually no goalie is gonna have a chance on than however many less floaters from the point he’s been struggling with lately. The former is 100x a bigger problem.

It's honestly not. They can clean up as much as they want. If the Vasy who played the Leafs last year shows up, it doesn't matter. You cant win when your goalie spots the other team one or two every game. No defense can win when shots from safe areas are the ones going in.

 

[Rschmitz]

Is there any reason to think he can't make an adjustment and fix this hole in his game? Seems like something he can fix

 

[DFC]

Is there any reason to think he can't make an adjustment and fix this hole in his game? Seems like something he can fix

That's the hope. We have no other option. But to pretend it's not a problem seems as absurd to me as those who are saying he's awful.

We saw it over and over vs. The Leafs. It very likely is the thing that cost us the series. And it seems like it's still an issue now. He needs to correct it because it's not like we can replace him even if we wanted to.

 

[Rschmitz]

That's the hope. We have no other option. But to pretend it's not a problem seems as absurd to me as those who are saying he's awful.

We saw it over and over vs. The Leafs. It very likely is the thing that cost us the series. And it seems like it's still an issue now. He needs to correct it because it's not like we can replace him even if we wanted to.

My comment was somewhat unserious, these struggles aren't new for him. Long range shots were always his weak area, was on his draft card and pretty apparent from his rookie season that he had to adjust to the speed of NHL shots, some embarrassing long rangers got past him year 1 and onwards.

We haven't heard much about it since about year 3 because it stopped being effective against him. If he's relapsed back into some old tendencies he should be able to fix them, he's definitely still got the physical capability and reaction time. Anyways, I am not worried about his overall effectiveness, this is one I'm pretty confident about.

 

[Antiramie]

It's honestly not. They can clean up as much as they want. If the Vasy who played the Leafs last year shows up, it doesn't matter. You cant win when your goalie spots the other team one or two every game. No defense can win when shots from safe areas are the ones going in.

Let me rephrase. I think how Vasy played in 6% of his career playoff games, which was notably worse than his entire 2022 regular season too, is much more likely to be an outlier than our defensive coaching/talent/play that's been trending down for a year and half now...barring more or less a sea change in the latter.

I'd also argue that our defensive lapses are responsible for more goals against than however many gimmes Vasy lets in and that he still makes some massive saves that other goalies wouldn't to make up for some of them. But I don't have any stats to prove that. Maybe we won't win a series either way, but losing by 1 and being more competitive is still better than 2, no?

No defense can win in that scenario? Come on, even if my above, shooting from the hip take isn't correct, to suggest that in theory a team has just as bad a chance of winning if the goalie is less shaky than the team defense in front of him creating more unstoppable goals is pretty ridiculous/hyperbolic.

 

[DFC]

Let me rephrase. I think how Vasy played in 6% of his career playoff games, which was notably worse than his entire 2022 regular season too, is much more likely to be an outlier than our defensive coaching/talent/play that's been trending down for a year and half now...barring more or less a sea change in the latter.

I'd also argue that our defensive lapses are responsible for more goals against than however many gimmes Vasy lets in and that he still makes some massive saves that other goalies wouldn't to make up for some of them. But I don't have any stats to prove that. Maybe we won't win a series either way, but losing by 1 and being more competitive is still better than 2, no?

No defense can win in that scenario? Come on, even if my above, shooting from the hip take isn't correct, to suggest that in theory a team has just as bad a chance of winning if the goalie is less shaky than the team defense in front of him creating more unstoppable goals is pretty ridiculous/hyperbolic.

I would agree except it's happening again. Specifically the struggle to track pucks from distance.

But no, I dont think any team could win with Vasy playing as poorly as he did in last year's playoffs. We were outplaying the Leafs by good margin. But you can win if you're spotting a team two every night.

My comment was somewhat unserious, these struggles aren't new for him. Long range shots were always his weak area, was on his draft card and pretty apparent from his rookie season that he had to adjust to the speed of NHL shots, some embarrassing long rangers got past him year 1 and onwards.

We haven't heard much about it since about year 3 because it stopped being effective against him. If he's relapsed back into some old tendencies he should be able to fix them, he's definitely still got the physical capability and reaction time. Anyways, I am not worried about his overall effectiveness, this is one I'm pretty confident about.

I always noticed he lost pucks in his feet early on. I dont remember him struggling that much on long shots through traffic, but we did see that report that said it was something the Lightning noticed a while ago.

It seemed like the Leafs exploited it. When teams dont, he still looks like the same goalie he's always been.